2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 23

Three weeks now until Selection Sunday, Just three. Hard to believe. But what a run to the tournament we are about to have. Two weeks of some great games are ahead, including some huge ones for some teams on the bubble. And then, of course, a week of conference tournaments, which means college basketball on TV starting at noon all the way until 2am. It's a fantastic time of the year, only trumped by the next weekend, when the Big Dance begins in earnest.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Two new additions to this group after the weekend. San Diego State has avoided that really bad loss and with their record and RPI, they are surely getting in even if they trip up in the conference tournament. Same goes for Butler, who despite losing to Xavier, has done enough to keep the committee from leaving them out.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (26): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Maryland, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, VCU, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, SMU, San Diego State, Butler



AUTOS: Made a few changes here as some teams are losing grips on regular season conference titles and others have RPI numbers that are just difficult to ignore. Constant change is coming to this category very soon.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As you can imagine, this is the group to put together. Have about 14 teams that I think are fairly solid and just have to put them in order. But after that, it gets a little dicey, especially as these teams find ways to lose bad games or even just close games against teams that could really help their resume. Pittsburgh did their part to fight back into the field, taking down Syracuse on the road. But that's the only change.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Xavier, Indiana, Ole Miss, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Temple, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Texas A&M, Purdue, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, LSU, Stanford, UCLA, Pittsburgh

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Good news for the teams in this group is that no one had their bubble burst from last week, despite a couple of them losing. But the teams on the outside looking in are running out of time to make an impression and move up. Miami (FL) fell out of the AT-LARGE group not because of a bad loss (at Louisville) but because the more you look at the math, it's hard to argue they are more worthy than some others ahead of them. And that's just how Bracketology goes.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (31): Xavier, Indiana, Ole Miss, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Temple, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Texas A&M, Purdue, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, LSU, Stanford, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Miami (FL), Davidson, Tulsa, BYU, UMass, Rhode Island, Wyoming

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Pittsburgh

NEW TEAMS OUT: Miami (FL)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB