2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 6

Still more than a month before Selection Sunday and already, I can tell how tough this year may be finding teams that are worthy of the tournament. Seems like every year, there are about 60-64 teams that deserve to get into the tournament. But that final group of 4 is always hard to narrow down, especially when they all continually lose. That was the case this week.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No one added or deleted from this group. Again, the goal is to never delete anyone from this group. I did change the order of teams slightly.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (14): Kentucky, Virginia, Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Louisville, Iowa State, North Carolina, VCU, Utah



AUTOS: This is the group of teams that will only make the tournament by winning their conference tournament. Obviously, I do not follow all of these conferences so I tend to just write in the team that leads the standings. I will update these as the weeks go on to make sure I predict the team playing the best at the time.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Tulsa, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: In typical fashion, more than half of these teams lost, making for some interesting decisions on my part in moving them up, down or not at all. There were some quality wins (Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Providence) but also some pretty terrible losses (Xavier, Seton Hall, Tennessee, LSU, NC State) that caused me to shuffle this group more than usual in the first week of posting.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (30): Baylor, West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Providence, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana, Dayton, SMU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Xavier, Georgia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Miami (FL), St. John's. Stanford, Iowa, Tennessee, Colorado State, Texas A&M, Purdue

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: It's only the first week in February and I'm already frustrated with this group of teams. They are all pretty mediocre and in the past 4 days, did nothing to change my opinion. Besides Purdue and Wyoming, none had an impressive win. Others like Richmond and Kansas State tallied embarrassing losses that really dropped them. In other words, plenty of moving and shaking happened and I'm sure plenty more will occur in the weeks ahead.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (50): Baylor, Wichita State, West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Providence, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Maryland, Butler, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, San Diego State, Indiana, Dayton, SMU, Oklahoma State, Texas, Xavier, Georgia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Miami (FL), St. John's. Stanford, Iowa, Tennessee, Colorado State, Texas A&M, Purdue, LSU, Boise State, Illinois, Washington, NC State, George Washington, Wyoming, UCLA, BYU, Alabama, Clemson, Tulsa, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Memphis, Richmond, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (4), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Iowa, Texas A&M, Purdue

NEW TEAMS OUT: Washington, LSU, NC State

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB