2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

Getting to be about that time where BUBBLE teams start to feel the pressure, and I love that! When you have just 5-6 games left on your regular season schedule, and probably just 2-3 against teams that can help your resume, games against those quality teams become more important. And that means even if teams aren't exactly ranked, it makes for a great, competitive game, because there is much more on the line than just a conference win. There could be an AT-LARGE spot in March Madness (and Barnes Bracketology) on the line.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Couple changes here. The first is something I hate to do but that is to take a team out of this category. Only the second time I've ever done that but in this case, it's due to an injury that is clearly hurting the team. Talking about VCU and the loss of Briante Weber, their best defender. Since losing him, they have lost 3 of 4 and while they are likely still going to get into the tournament, let's not call them a LOCK anymore. It is time to call Oklahoma, Wichita State and Northern Iowa that though, who are new additions after wins this week.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (17): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Louisville, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Wichita State, Northern Iowa



AUTOS: Every Sunday night, I'll check back on this group to see if I need to make any tweaks. I made a couple but nothing too drastic.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Albany, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Atlantic 10 - VCU, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: For the first time, not one team dropped down form this list. 3 were elevated but no one dropped out. The losses suffered by LSU and Texas A&M were good losses, though both were at home. Plenty of shuffling but nothing too drastic.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (27): West Virginia, Butler, Georgetown, Arkansas, Providence, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, Temple, Dayton, Ole Miss, Iowa, Stanford, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Michigan State, Boise State, LSU, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Texas A&M

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has shrunk from 50 to 47 to 44. Yes, it is getting smaller and that's for two reasons. Some of those teams are moving into LOCKS. Others though are just not getting the job done to stay in consideration. This week, that includes the likes of Old Dominion and Saint Mary's, who couldn't really afford a loss right now. I added UMass to the fray though, as maybe I have overlooked just how good their resume is.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (44): West Virginia, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Arkansas, Providence, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Ohio State, SMU, Xavier, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, San Diego State, Temple, Dayton, Ole Miss, Iowa, Stanford, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Michigan State, Boise State, LSU, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Purdue, Oregon, BYU, UCLA, Tennessee, George Washington, Pittsburgh, UMass, Alabama, NC State, Tulsa, Washington, Wyoming, Rhode Island

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), American (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: None

NEW TEAMS OUT: None

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB