2014 Barnes Bracketology: RECAP

Another year has come and gone for Barnes Bracketology and not to be "that guy" but I did really well. It was probably my best year yet. You'll see why below but first of all, I want to just thank everyone who read these posts. This is a labor of love for me that I picked up in 2009 and if not for the people who read and respond to the posts, it would not be nearly as much fun as it is, so thank you.

Now, to how great of a job I did!

NCAA BRACKET 

MY FINAL BRACKET

Let's start with my Bracketology goals first.

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region - NO

This did not happen. Got 3 of the 4 (Michigan wrong). I was willing to change it to Virginia around 4pm when I read a tweet that the committee had 2 contingencies, all but saying they were going to move Michigan out of that seed if they lost in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game, which they did. I did not change it though because it would have meant making a whole new bracket late in the game. They had the time, I did not.

2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots - YES

As far as the teams I predicted would be in the field, this is the first time in the 6 years I have done this that I have been able to complete this goal. I'm proud of this one the most because it means I have a real grasp for how to evaluate the teams and their resumes.

3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct - YES

Apparently, I need to make this a higher number because I got 100%!

4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup - YES

I call this one a bonus because it really is more to luck than skill, considering all the combinations. But I got one. In fact, I actually correctly predicted 9 matchups!

BARNES vs. THE "EXPERTS"

For the first time, I am going to compare my final bracket against the brackets of the two leading "expert" bracketologists: Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports

Teams In The Field:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Lunardi: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Palm: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

1 seeds:

Barnes: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Lunardi: 4 out of 4

Palm: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Team's Exact Seed:

Barnes: 37 out of 68

Lunardi: 39 out of 68

Palm: 35 out of 68

Team's Seed Within One Spot:

Barnes: 63 out of 68 (VCU, UConn, Oklahoma, Kentucky, NC State*)

Lunardi: 61 out of 68 (New Mexico, Saint Louis, UConn, Colorado, UMass, Kentucky, NC State*)

Palm: 58 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, St. Joseph's, UConn, BYU, Kentucky, Cincinnati, VCU, Saint Louis, NC State*)

Team's Seed Within Two Spots:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State*)

Lunardi: 66 out of 68 (UMass, NC State*)

Palm: 65 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, NC State*)

Correct Second/Third Round Sites For Top 4 Seeds:

Barnes: 16 out of 16

Lunardi: 12 out of 16

Palm: 8 out of 16

Teams Seeded 1-4 (not necessarily in right seed):
Barnes: 16 out of 16
Lunardi: 16 out of 16
Palm: 15 out of 16 (Cincinnati)

Teams Placed in Correct Second/Third Round Site:
Barnes: 33 out of 68
Lunardi: 17 out of 68
Palm: 25 out of 68

Teams in "First Four" Games:
Barnes: 7 out of 8 (Arizona State)
Lunardi: 4 out of 8 (Coastal Carolina, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton)
Palm: 6 out of 8 (BYU, SMU)

Actual Matchups:
Barnes: 9 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Iowa-Tennessee, Syracuse-WMU, Villanova-Milwaukee, SDSU-NMST, Creighton-LA Lafayette, Wisconsin-American, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Lunardi: 4 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, SDSU-NMST, Cincinnati-Harvard, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Palm: 5 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Arizona-Weber State, Oklahoma-NDSU, UNC-Providence)

First Team Out:
Barnes: Minnesota
Lunardi: Southern Miss
Palm: Missouri

So judging by the statistics above, I was the best of the 3 in a number of categories. I think Lunardi got all the 1 seeds right because of the same tweet I saw. Earlier in the day, I heard him say on Sportscenter that he did not think Virginia could get to the 1 seed. I doubt he had a change of heart. I think instead he saw the tweet and went to work on getting UVA to a 1 seed.

He did correctly put more teams in the right seed but in every other category, I was superior. I had more teams closer to their actual seed and missed none by more than 2, something the "experts" cannot say. Lunardi was particularly awful at placing teams in the right site. Palm was a little better but I was clearly better than both. I dominated the play-in games, correctly getting the 16 seed teams and 3 of the final 4 teams in the field. We all missed NC State getting in the field.

If you add up their actual matchups, you get to my total. Again, another category I was stellar in. And I added the last team in to prove that none of the 3 really considered NC State as the next one in exactly. I had them as the 5th team out. Lunardi had them 7th team out. Palm doesn't list after his first four out so they were at least 5th out.

So there it is. Feel free to listen to those guys on TV and read their stuff on the websites next year but just know that the information you see right here is just as accurate and credible as theirs, if not more.

I pride myself on this now and worked probably too hard to make sure it is the best it can be. And I am proud to say this year, it was better than those than guys who actually get paid to do it!

As far as how I thought the committee did, I think they did a fine job. Yes, Virginia as a 1 seed is a bit controversial but there was not a clear 4th team there for that spot so I'm fine with it. MSU and Louisville are dangerous 4 seeds but their body of work deserved a 3 or 4 seed so that's fine. Kentucky as an 8 seed seems really low. This team is getting better, not worse. Adding NC State instead of SMU is okay by me. SMU's non-conference schedule was a joke and so they were penalized. Just weird to see a team that was ranked going into Championship Week not make the field.

When it comes to how they bracketed the team, I have a little beef in how they did that. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could meet in the Sweet 16. Same for Louisville and Kentucky. Yeah, it would be exciting but you try to avoid those kind of rematches until as late as possible. BYU and Gonzaga in the same region goes against the bracketing policies. Baylor playing in San Antonio when Creighton is the 3 seed seems unfair. And teams from the same conference in the same half of a region is all over the place.

But such is life. Regardless, I'm excited for this tournament. I may be able to predict the field but as far as predicting who will win the whole thing, I'm worthless. I have not won a bracket pool in my life but maybe this is the year!

I'll post my predictions though (for the first time) on the blog tomorrow!

MB