18 teams. 8 spots. That's how I see the bubble. None of the teams below want to be in this post. That's because each and every one of them know their fate is in the hands of the selection committee right now. That is, if they can't make a big run and win their conference tournament.
For 5 weeks now, I've been projecting the field of 68. Today, I'll let you decide. I will simply put out the resumes of these teams. None of them are overly impressive, hence their inclusion on this list. Again, only 8 spots are up for grabs in my estimation and these are the 18 that are most likely under consideration.
How you decide who is worthy is truly up to you. Some people favor the last 12 games. Others look at top 50 RPI wins. Others will focus on who the teams beat and lost to while others want to see a strong road record. Strength of schedule in and out of conference may be most important or maybe not. It really is subjective, which is what makes it so tough to pick the final teams.
You be the judge. Some things to note:
1. RPI numbers via ESPN.com
2. A key win is a win vs. a team that is either projected in the field or in bubble watch. I will signify if it is a road win, as that carries some weight to it. If they beat them twice, it is signified as (x 2)
3. A key loss is a loss vs. a team under the RPI top 100. Doesn't matter if it's home or away. It's a bad loss.
Here are the teams (in alphabetical order) with records and RPI numbers from Tuesday, before any of the Championship Week action from any of them:
Arkansas (20-11)
RPI: 21-10 SOS: 87 Non-Conference SOS: 192
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 4-8 Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: SMU, Minnesota, Kentucky (x 2)
Key Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama
Breakdown: The SOS and NC SOS are not strong. But the wins vs. the RPI top 50 and top 100 are solid compared to the field. The 2 wins vs. Kentucky really help their cause.
Arizona State (21-10)
RPI: 45 SOS: 55 Non-Conference SOS: 247
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-6 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 9-9
Road W-L: 4-6 Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, California (x 2)
Key Losses: Miami (FL)
Breakdown: The key wins are very, very good, which is why I think they are in better shape than most. But that non-conference SOS is laughable. This is the 2nd straight season the Sun Devils have played practically no one outside of the Pac-12
California (19-12)
RPI: 53 SOS: 31 Non-Conference SOS: 97
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-11
Road W-L: 5-8 Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: at Stanford, at Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas
Key Losses: USC
Breakdown: Not too long ago they were in great shape with all those quality wins. But the 5-7 record in the last 12 is sure to put questions in the mind of the committee. Not overly impressive vs. the top 50 but the SOS numbers help the cause.
Dayton (22-9)
RPI: 41 SOS: 49 Non-Conference SOS: 89
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 10-6
Road W-L: 8-4 Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Gonzaga, George Washington, UMass, @ Saint Louis, California
Key Losses: Illinois State, Rhode Island, USC
Breakdown: The record is good. The SOS numbers are good. The RPI top 100 record is excellent, as are the road wins and the last 12 games. So why are they here? Because of the losses. Not good at all. They're in better shape than most though overall.
Florida State (18-12)
RPI: 58 SOS: 48 Non-Conference SOS: 103
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-11
Road W-L: 7-6 Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: VCU, UMass, at Pittsburgh
Key Losses: Miami (FL)
Breakdown: It reads like an NIT resume with the record vs. the best teams in the nation. And the overall RPI number is not strong. But the road record and SOS helps. The 5-7 record in the last 12 though is sure to leave a bad taste in the mouth of committee members.
Georgetown (17-13)
RPI: 55 SOS: 9 Non-Conference SOS: 27
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 3-8 Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Kansas State, VCU, Michigan State, Xavier, Creighton, Providence, St. John's
Key Losses: Northeastern, Seton Hall (x 2)
Breakdown: The curious case of the Hoyas. The SOS numbers are tournament worthy. And the key wins are bountiful. But the overall record of 17-13 could keep them out. 13 losses is a lot for an at-large selection.
Minnesota (18-12)
RPI: 49 SOS: 5 Non-Conference SOS: 29
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 3-8 Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida State
Key Losses: Northwestern, Purdue
Breakdown: The SOS are great but their play is of late is anything but. Their road record is no good either. The wins are solid but too many of them came in January and not February and March.
Missouri (21-10)
RPI: 56 SOS: 84 Non-Conference SOS: 150
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-7 Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: UCLA, Tennessee, at NC State, Arkansas (x 2)
Key Losses:Vanderbilt, Alabama
Breakdown: Everything here is ho-him. SOS is average. RPI is average. The fact they have only played 5 teams in the RPI top 50 is odd. The wins are good but 6-6 in the last 12 shows they aren't playing their best right now.
Nebraska (19-11)
RPI: 35 SOS: 26 Non-Conference SOS: 87
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 4-10 Last 12 Games: 10-2
Key Wins: Ohio State, Minnesota, at Michigan State, Wisconsin
Key Losses: UAB, Purdue, Penn State
Breakdown: No team is playing better among this group than Nebraska. They were 9-9 and now they are 19-11. Their SOS numbers are quality and the key wins have come in the past few weeks so the committee has to like that. The road record is an eye sore though.
NC State (19-12)
RPI: 63 SOS: 43 Non-Conference SOS: 91
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-9
Road W-L: 6-6 Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, Florida State
Key Losses: NC Central, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
Breakdown: The Wolfpack had lots of chance against the best teams. Not sure they have enough wins against them. 3 losses to bad teams surely doesn't help either.
Pittsburgh (23-8)
RPI: 40 SOS: 83 Non-Conference SOS: 235
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-6 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-8
Road W-L: 10-3 Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Stanford, at NC State
Key Losses: None
Breakdown: If you look at the record and RPI, you think they're great. But then you look at who they have beaten and you wonder just how safe Pitt is. The key wins are only against teams on this list. Every loss is against a quality team but does that mean they deserve to be in?
Providence (20-11)
RPI: 54 SOS: 78 Non-Conference SOS: 213
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 7-7 Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown, at St. John's
Key Losses: Seton Hall
Breakdown: The quality wins are kind of there and the lack of bad losses is good. But that non-conference SOS is not good at all. The road record is impressive compared to others here but 6-6 in the last 12 is not. So yeah, who knows what the committee thinks.
St. John's (20-11)
RPI: 57 SOS: 53 Non-Conference SOS: 138
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-7 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Road W-L: 5-6 Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Creighton, at Providence, Georgetown
Key Losses: Penn State, DePaul
Breakdown: They are playing well when it matters but the RPI and the wins against the best teams are not there compared to other teams. The non-conference SOS also is not that strong.
St. Joseph's (21-9)
RPI: 48 SOS: 70 Non-Conference SOS: 151
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 8-4 Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Dayton (x 2), UMass, VCU
Key Losses: Temple
Breakdown: Almost everything here is solid but not stellar. The most glaring hole in the resume is the non-conference SOS. But all the other numbers look good compared to the other bubble teams. But again, just solid, not stellar.
SMU (23-8)
RPI: 44 SOS: 129 Non-Conference SOS: 301
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-6
Road W-L: 7-7 Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: UConn (x 2), Memphis, Cincinnati
Key Losses: South Florida, Temple
Breakdown: SMU has been ranked in the polls for much of the last few weeks which will help their cause. As for these numbers, they aren't overly great. The SOS numbers are hideous. And there aren't a ton of quality wins. But 23-8 looks good as does a sweep of UConn.
Stanford (19-11)
RPI: 43 SOS: 16 Non-Conference SOS: 64
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-11
Road W-L: 7-6 Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at UConn, at Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, at California
Key Losses: None
Breakdown: Decent looking numbers all around. The SOS numbers are very good and the road record is as well. The RPI wins could be better but you can't argue against the key wins (3 on the road) and the fact that every loss is to a top-100 team. But 7-5 in last 12 is not really working in their favor.
Tennessee (19-11)
RPI: 46 SOS: 15 Non-Conference SOS: 43
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 5-7 Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Xavier, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri
Key Losses: Texas A&M (x 2), Vanderbilt
Breakdown:Can't find any fault in the SOS numbers. But 2-5 against the best teams in the nation is not amazing. The rest of the numbers look okay though getting swept by Texas A&M is going to hurt them.
Xavier (19-11)
RPI: 47 SOS: 38 Non-Conference SOS: 109
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3 Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-7 Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: Tennessee, Cincinnati, Creighton, St. John's (x 2), Providence, Georgetown
Key Losses: USC, Seton Hall (x 2)
Breakdown: They have quality wins galore, especially against their bubble brethren. And the SOS numbers aren't awful. What's hurting the Musketeers is their last 12 games and that sweep by Seton Hall. Not sure which Xavier the committee likes/hates more.
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