2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 15

Tomorrow, my Bracketology journey ends and the breaking down of the brackets process begins. This has been one of the more interesting years for Barnes Bracketology. For once, it is not that we have a dearth of mediocre teams but instead, a lot of teams with some actually deserving cases. Plus, we have a group of about 12-16 teams that could be seeded anywhere from 4-7 seeds. Makes for some longer than usual time to seed and bracket the teams but hey, that's why I get paid the big bucks to do this (I don't get paid anything).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Alright, we are one day away from Selection Sunday. Time to take some chances and make some more bold decisions on LOCKS. Today, that means Pittsburgh, SMU and Stanford. Pitt gets in thanks to a win over UNC in the ACC tourney. SMU did not play yesterday but enough teams lost to clinch their spot. And Stanford lost yesterday but have done enough in and out of conference to feel safe I think.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (42): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Creighton, Iowa State, Syracuse, San Diego State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, UConn, Saint Louis, UMass, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Memphis, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Baylor, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Iowa, SMU, Stanford


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal State Northridge, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: 5 spots are what I think this field comes down too. And to be honest, I really think it's down to 1. I feel good that Saint Joesph's (still alive in A-10 tournament), Arizona State (done), Tennessee (still alive in SEC tournament) and Xavier (done) are in the field. Where they stand in the committee's eyes may be different than mine. As for that final spot, Providence replaces Minnesota, who I thought really needed to beat Wisconsin to help their cause. Providence plays for the Big East tournament title today and with a win could move right into the AUTO territory. This is the first time I've put Providence in this category. Better late than never right?

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: As stated above, with just one spot really up for grabs, this really comes down to which teams below are still alive for that one spot. Those are Providence and NC State. So beware the Wolfpack. The others are out in my mind but maybe not to the committee.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (11): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Minnesota, Missouri, NC State, Arkansas, California, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Wisconsin is my 4th #1 right now but that could switch easily. Michigan is still alive and so is Virginia. I'm not as high on Villanova's chances as others.

2. 67 out of 68 - I really think this field is set with the exception of that final spot. I may have the order/seeding off from the committee but not the field. Providence could make it easy and win today and then, I think it's all set. That is unless...

3. Beware the bid stealers -NC State could complicate things with a win vs. Duke. Also, Georgia is still alive in the SEC tournament and so is St. Bonaventure in the A-10. The Bonnies were a late add 2 years ago so I'm not counting them out to mess up my all-but-finished bracket

I will post a bracket before the games tomorrow and then another around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament that will serve as my FINAL bracket.

MB