So yesterday, I was very self-congratulatory about my predictions of the field. I can assure you that there will be no such post about my predictions of my picks of how the tournament actually turns out.
That's because I have been notoriously bad with this part. Some years, I take too many chances and pick a lot of upsets. Other years, I look at numbers so hard that I talk myself out of just using common sense. Lately, I've gone more chalk which is less fun but supposedly more effective. I haven't seen the results of that yet. In fact, I finished dead last in a bracket pool just last year. It had 142 people in it. That's sad.
So with my credibility as a sports anchor in the balance, here are my picks for the 2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
SOUTH REGION
Best Second Round Matchup: 6 Ohio State vs. 11 Dayton - Two schools separated by an hour with all kinds of familiarity. OSU has a superior defense but cannot shoot. Dayton can shoot lights out but their defense is spotty at times. Neither team has a dominant big guy so this will come down to the guards.
Upset Special: 3 Syracuse vs. 14 Western Michigan - I'm not picking it but beware of the Broncos. The MAC is a solid league and a 14 seed for their regular season and tournament champ could mean Syracuse overlooks them. WMU is not great from 3-point range which would help against the zone but they do have a big man in Shayne Whittington who will get points in the paint and a natural scorer in David Brown. Also, WMU has faced zone from a Syracuse disciple in Rob Murphy's Eastern Michigan squad so they know what to expect. But the Orange are obviously much more athletic. They have not been great as of late (losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College at home) but they should survive this one.
Best Potential Matchup: 1 Florida vs. 2 Kansas - Talk about talent on the floor and teams with championship pedigree. This matchup just oozes great basketball. When Kansas is healthy, they have the highest ceiling of any team in this tournament. They depend a bit too much on young players which is a bit of a worry and Joel Embiid is not 100%. Florida has simply just won the last few months and plays the exact style that makes you feel like they are always in control. And they may not sport the lottery picks the Jayhawks do but these Gators can play with anyone....and beat them.
Final Four Sleeper: 7 New Mexico - They are an experienced team and a team on a roll right now. Fresh off a Mountain West Tournament title so they have good mojo heading into the Big Dance. They also have a sneaky good draw in a ho-hum Stanford squad, a Embiid-less Kansas team, and then either a struggling Syracuse or Ohio State squad before making the regional final.
Champion: 1 Florida - They are just the most solid team in the
region bar none. They have not lost since December, been to 3 straight
Elite Eights and are coached by a championship caliber coach in Billy
Donovan. What worries me if anything is their lack of competition in the
SEC. Are they ready for the likes of UCLA and Kansas?
WEST REGION
Best Second Round Matchup: 6 Baylor vs. 11 Nebraska - What used to be an annual game in the Big 12 now will now decide who moves on and who heads home. This is a game between two of the hottest teams in the nation. Baylor was 2-8 in conference play but then went 7-1 to end the regular season and then made the Big 12 Tournament Championship. Nebraska was bounced by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals but they ended the year with a flurry of quality victories. And something tells me a team making their first tournament appearance since 1998 has something to prove.
Upset Special: 5 Oklahoma vs. 12 North Dakota State - Two words: Taylor Braun. The sharpshooter from the Bison is a stud. Averages 18 points and shoots 44% from 3-point range. He is a handful to guard and this is a confident team overall too. Only one loss since Jan. 9. The Sooners are a good team and no doubt can win this game. Something just tells me the Bison are primed to pull off this upset in Spokane.
Best Potential Matchup: 3 Creighton vs. 11 Nebraska - I want this just for the state of Nebraska. They don't often play each other (which is a shame) but are separated by 60 miles. We all know about Doug McDermott. But Nebraska is a fun watch as well. Shavon Shields and Terran Petteway are dynamic scorers and Tim Miles has coached this team up to be a great defensive squad.
Final Four Sleeper: 9 Oklahoma State - This is just truly a different team with Marcus Smart on it. Ever since he came back, this team has played at a new level. Yes, they have lost a few games since his suspension but they were all close. If they can pull off the upset vs. Arizona, they could see favorable matchups the rest of the way. Just beware a team on a mission like this one and a team with a point guard as god as Smart.
Champion: 1 Arizona - Just more talent than anyone else in this region. Nick Johnson is just the kind of guard you want on a team in March. Aaron Gordon is a freshman playing like a veteran down low. Nice role players like Kaleb Tarczewski and T.J. McConnell to round out a solid squad. And maybe most importantly, a great defensive team. They don't rush their shots and they challenge your shots. Will be tough to beat.
MIDWEST REGION
Best Second Round Matchup: 8 Kentucky vs. 9 Kansas State - Everyone is just giving this game to the Wildcats, who are crazy talented but also inconsistent. They have shown signs of real progress and nearly pulled off the huge upset of Florida in the SEC Tournament Championship. But now with all the pressure on them to win this game and many looking forward to their potential matchup with Wichita State, don't count out a letdown from them. And if they do not play their best, Kansas State can beat them. The Wildcats played in a rugged Big 12 and despite losing their last 3 games, have proven they can beat the big dogs like Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma.
Upset Special: 5 Saint Louis vs. 12 NC State - NC State was a little bit lucky to get into the field but beware that kind of team that feels like they have something to prove to the committee and the nation. VCU felt the same way and rode that to the Final Four What is in NC State's favor is they played a bruised Xavier squad first (1-3 in last 4) in Dayton and then a bruised Saint Louis team, losers of 4 of their last 5. The Wolfpack have the ACC player of the year in T.J. Warren who can be a one-man wrecking crew. If he's on, look out. If he's off though, it could be a one-and-done for NC State.
Best Potential Matchup: 1 Wichita State vs. 4 Louisville - Yes, Louisville vs. Kentucky would be fun in the Sweet 16 but I like this matchup more. The top seed in the region vs. the team many feel is playing the best right now. Plus, a rematch of their Final Four showdown in Atlanta that went down to the end. Wichita State is a better team since that game while Louisville is not in my estimation. They are still incredibly talented but the Shockers have really grown in the past year. Both teams are on top of their game and the fact that this is just to advance to the Elite Eight is a real shame.
Final Four Sleeper: 2 Michigan - I know what you're thinking. They're a 2 seed but after about 36+ hours since the brackets were announced, who has picked them? A lot of attention has gone to Louisville and Duke to get to the regional final. Let's not forget about the Wolverines, who are capable of shooting lights out from 3-point range at any time. They have great guard play even with the loss of Trey Burke. They also happen to be coached by one of the best coaches out there in John Beilein who I would trust to draw up a play for me any day with 10 seconds or less on the clock.
Champion: 1 Wichita State - Not the sexiest pick right now but I think it's the smartest pick. Why not take the team that has not lost a game all season long! Say what you will about their schedule but this team made the Final Four a year ago and most of that team returns. The target is on their back this time around but judging by that undefeated record, they have handled that bulls eye just fine. It will not be an easy road but they are well-rested and ready for any and all takers.
EAST REGION
Best Second Round Matchup: 7 UConn vs. 10 Saint Joseph's - I really like the guard matchup of Shabazz Napier and Langston Galloway. Has the real possibility of being a game that goes down to the wire. Plus a fascinating coaching matchup between Kevin Ollie, coaching in his first NCAA Tournament game and Phil Martelli, who was under fire at St. Joseph's until he coached this team to the A-10 Tournament title.
Upset Special: 5 Cincinnati vs. 12 Harvard - This is a trendy pick and for good reason. The Crimson are a good team. They have won 20+ games the past 3 years. They are coached by a quality head coach in Tommy Amaker. They have the experience in beating New Mexico last year out west in a 3-14 matchup. And maybe most importantly, they play a Cincinnati team that is definitely beatable. The Bearcats tend to be a one-trick pony, counting on Sean Kilpatrick to do all the scoring. That's not a recipe for success in March. They are simply offensively challenged which means teams can stay in games with them. If Harvard stays in this game, they will win. They are a confident, veteran bunch who expect to win.
Best Potential Matchup: 1 Virginia vs. 3 Iowa State - It's always fun to see the offense vs. defense matchup in any sport. We saw that in the Super Bowl and the defense prevailed. What about in college basketball? Virginia boasts the best defense while Iowa State ranks in the top 10 of most offensive categories. A true clash of styles to advance to the Final Four? Sign me up!
Final Four Sleeper: 6 North Carolina - Never count out the Heels, even this team which underachieved at the start of the season but ended the season on a 12-2 run. The 2 losses have come in a row at the end but it was vs. Duke and Pittsburgh, so not against cupcake competition. They have the talent to win any game they want but they have to put it all together
Champion: 4 Michigan State - Sometimes it takes a whole season for you to play your best basketball. That's the case for the Spartans who are just now hitting their stride after being riddled with injuries all season long. They cruised through the Big Ten Tournament, showing signs of a team that will contend for a national championship. They have veterans at every position, they are ferocious on the defensive end, and have a coach you know will have them ready to go in every game in Tom Izzo. Easily one of the best 4 seeds in recent memory.
FINAL FOUR
Analysis: I could honestly see any of the 4 teams in the group winning it all. I'm going with Arizona though because I think they just have the best combination of offense, defense, experience, raw talent and coaching. They passed my eye test early in the season and did at the end as well. They just have the look and feel of a team that can make a run in 6 games vs. quality competition without being tripped up. Yes, they lost the Pac-12 Tournament Championship but this is the NCAA Tournament. To borrow from the MLB All-Star Game, this time, it counts.
So there you go. My picks from start to finish. Happy March Madness everyone!
MB
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