This time next week, forget Barnes Bracketology. It will be all about breaking down the brackets. Six days now until Selection Sunday and figuring out how the NCAA Selection Committee decided to put together this puzzle that is the NCAA Tournament. As I've already said, there is no right or wrong way of doing this. My projections are just one way of putting the field together. I like to think though it is similar to the thinking of the ten college athletic administrators in that room this weekend in Indy.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: We're up to 35 in this category as I've added Baylor and Oregon. What a run it's been for them. Both were barely a BUBBLE when I began posting but since, they have beaten a slew a quality teams and now I think are safely in. Oregon's win over Arizona means Florida is my new top seed. Kansas stays 4th as teams like Virginia and Wisconsin also lost. Beyond that, a lot of other teams lost so a decent shakeup in this group, especially around teams 20-30.
These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.
These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.
LOCKS (35): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Duke, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Oklahoma, UMass, UCLA, Memphis, Ohio State, Texas, UConn, New Mexico, Kentucky, VCU, Kansas State, Colorado, Oregon, George Washington, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa
AUTOS: The conference tourneys have begun so lots of changes here. Upsets are always happening so I normally will just project the top seed of the tournament to win. You'll notice some teams in bold. That means they are officially in the Big Dance after winning their conference tourney. Harvard is the lone exception to that as they clinched their spot as regular season champion and also, were the first team officially in the field.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga
AT-LARGE: With the final week before the tournament, we're down to really just 11 spots up for grabs in the tournament. The teams near the front of this list can feel better than the others, who not only can't afford an early loss in their conference tournament, but also can't afford surprise teams winning conference tournaments. As far as who's in/who's out, California is back in after an OT win over Colorado while Missouri drops out after being thrashed by Tennessee.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton
AT-LARGE (11): BYU, SMU, Nebraska, Dayton, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, Tennessee, Arkansas, California
BUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: You never want to be on the BUBBLE. You definitely do not want to be this week. Lot of nervous fan bases this week, hoping their team does what it needs to do ad maybe also gets some help to sneak its way into the field. And remember VCU just 3 years ago, was one of the final teams into the field and made it to the Final Four so again, it's all just about getting in. I have it down to 20 teams fighting for those 11 AT-LARGE spots, with Gonzaga only really fighting for it if they fall in their conference tournament.
These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.
BUBBLE (20): Gonzaga, BYU, SMU, Nebraska, Dayton, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Florida State, St. John's, NC State
These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.
BUBBLE (20): Gonzaga, BYU, SMU, Nebraska, Dayton, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Florida State, St. John's, NC State
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)
(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST
**Florida is the overall top seed
I will be making another post after Tuesday's action. It will either be a normal post complete with bracket or a Bubble Watch special, giving you the reader a chance to breakdown the contenders for those final AT-LARGE spots. Regardless, I will have a complete post after Wednesday's action and then, have one each and every day including one right before the Selection Show airs at 6pm ET.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - I think Florida, Arizona and Wichita State are good. Kansas right now is in the best position for the last one but don't count out Virginia or Michigan if they win their conference tournament and Kansas gets upset early on.
2. Gonzaga and BYU can clinch spots tonight - I think both are in really good shape anyways but with wins tonight in the WCC Semifinals, they will be in. And that means one less AT-LARGE spot. But also means a surprise team can't steal that WCC tournament championship and the automatic bid that goes with it.
3. Beware the bid stealers - Every bubble team is worried about this. They dodged one bullet when Wichita State beat Indiana State in the MVC Tournament Championship. Now, they need teams from conferences like the Big East, Mountain West, SEC and others to simply have a team already projected in the field win the tournament championship.
4. Don't overvalue the conference tournaments - Yes, teams can clinch their spots with great tournament runs but at the same time, teams that get upset in the first round do not see their NCAA tourney hopes die. It's just another loss to stack up with the others.
5. Expect the unexpected - It's Championship Week. Anything goes. Top seeds have tumbled left and right in some of the mid-major conferences already. Expect that trend to continue this week in even some of the major conferences. When a team's back is against the wall, you are going to see some unusual results.
2. Gonzaga and BYU can clinch spots tonight - I think both are in really good shape anyways but with wins tonight in the WCC Semifinals, they will be in. And that means one less AT-LARGE spot. But also means a surprise team can't steal that WCC tournament championship and the automatic bid that goes with it.
3. Beware the bid stealers - Every bubble team is worried about this. They dodged one bullet when Wichita State beat Indiana State in the MVC Tournament Championship. Now, they need teams from conferences like the Big East, Mountain West, SEC and others to simply have a team already projected in the field win the tournament championship.
4. Don't overvalue the conference tournaments - Yes, teams can clinch their spots with great tournament runs but at the same time, teams that get upset in the first round do not see their NCAA tourney hopes die. It's just another loss to stack up with the others.
5. Expect the unexpected - It's Championship Week. Anything goes. Top seeds have tumbled left and right in some of the mid-major conferences already. Expect that trend to continue this week in even some of the major conferences. When a team's back is against the wall, you are going to see some unusual results.
I will be making another post after Tuesday's action. It will either be a normal post complete with bracket or a Bubble Watch special, giving you the reader a chance to breakdown the contenders for those final AT-LARGE spots. Regardless, I will have a complete post after Wednesday's action and then, have one each and every day including one right before the Selection Show airs at 6pm ET.
MB
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