2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

I'm coming to you live from Indianapolis, home of the Big Ten Tournament. There has been plenty of great basketball action here as well as elsewhere in the nation. And like other places, some important games being played here as far as impact on the brackets. Still 3 full days of conference tournament action to go so expect some movement, especially near those final teams in and out. And as I make my final bracket, you may see some tweaks here and there. Again, it's a fluid process and unlike the committee, where I could have 9 people swaying me, I only have my brain...and it's not that sharp.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Went from 35 to 39 in this category. I'm a man of my word so Gonzaga and BYU are both LOCKS just for making the WCC final. Gonzaga won it so they are no doubt it. I also added Dayton and Nebraska. Both have truly played their win into the field. If they are snubbed, I'll be shocked. I'm keeping Iowa in the LOCKS category for now, but I'll be honest. I don't feel good about that. Losing 6 of their last 7 and the resume doesn't really save them.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (39): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Michigan State, UCLA, UMass, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UConn, Texas, Memphis, New Mexico, Kentucky, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Kansas State, George Washington, Baylor, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton, Iowa


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley

AT-LARGE: And then there were 8....spots up for grabs. I still feel good for Pitt and SMU to make the field. Same even can be said for Stanford, Saint Joseph's and Arizona State. After that, I'm not confident. I added in Minnesota and Xavier and took out Arkansas and California, who both exited their conference tournaments too soon I think.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (8): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I think this group is only 14 strong now. Some other bracketologists may have Southern Miss or Clemson in the discussion but I don't. I think they are behind a decent amount. But who knows. That's just my opinion. Georgetown and St. John's are done in my opinion. Needed a couple wins in their conference tournaments and they lost in their first game.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (14): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Arkansas, California, Florida State, NC State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), A-10 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Yep, it still is. Villanova's early loss counts them out I think. Kansas without Embiid surely brings some doubt into making them a 1 seed. So maybe it comes down to if Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke or Virginia win their conference tournament. But keep in mind, the Big Ten and ACC play those games on Sunday, and the selection committee normally locks the field down by then.

2. Still work to do - Plenty of teams in this category and the good thing for them is that they have opportunities to help themselves. Minnesota gets a chance at Wisconsin. Xavier gets Creighton. Providence could advance to the Big East championship with a win over Seton Hall. Missouri takes on Florida and NC State and Florida State are alive in the ACC.

3. Beware the bid stealers - Seton in the Big East. Illinois in the Big Ten. Teams to look out for as we move on.

5. Expect the unexpected - That cliche still applies. As does "Survive and Advance" - what every team is thinking right now.

 

Next post tomorrow!

MB