2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 17

Just 4 weeks now until the brackets are revealed! I love doing this but I also wouldn't mind getting my night back. This has been a tough season for this as teams are more even than ever before. I was just talking with people that this may be the year a 6, 7, or 8 seed could win the tournament. That's how wide open it is, Should make for a fun March.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With each post, I'm likely going to add another team, especially if they avoid a big loss. In this case, I'm adding Oregon. After a 3-game losing skid, they rebounded with a 3-game win streak. And mroe impressive than their 21-5 record I think is their 6-3 record away from Eugene. They also have avoided a really bad loss. So congrats to the Ducks.

LOCKS (21): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, Oregon


AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did make a few changes this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maryland's big win vs. Duke has them in this category but BARELY. They are my last team in the field. They replace Indiana State, who lost ANOTHER terrible game, this time at Bradley. The Syacmores have some great wins but until they cure their bad losses problem, they will not be in this category.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (27): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:This group is ever-changing. Not so much the names of the teams but the position of the teams. As we get closer, getting big wins like Maryland's over Duke will do wonders. I know the committee always says they look at the whole body of work and don not make snap judgements but I like to think they love to see a team playing its best at the end. And that means avoiding bad losses and getting wins in February they could get in December.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (45): Oklahoma, San Diego State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Missouri, NC State, UNLV, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Illinois, Creighton, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa State, Temple, Saint Louis, La Salle, California, Saint Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky, Baylor, Maryland, Villanova, Indiana State, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, St. John's, Boise State, Iowa, Charlotte, Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, BYU, Wyoming, Air Force, Ohio, UMass

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
West Virginia at Kansas State - Kansas State is obviously in the tourney. I think their ceiling is a 2 seed. Win here keeps it that way.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh - I think an Irish win may be enough to make them a LOCK. Pitt could use this win just to improve seeding.
Rutgers at Villanova - Would not be a quality win for the Wildcats but it would be a bad loss, especially at home.

TUESDAY
Indiana at Michigan State - Love this matchup. Both are 1 seeds. Both are tied for the top of the Big Ten. Make sure you;re watching this one...and on mute. Dick Vitale on the call with Magic Johnson.

Virginia at Miami (FL) - The Hurricanes survived a scare at Clemson. Now, they are home, taking on a Virginia team craving a big win to solidify their standing.

Florida at Missouri - Florida sill has an outside chance at a 1 seed. Need some help though. Missouri locks up their spot with a win over the Gators.

Wichita State at Indiana State - Would not shock me one bit to see the Sycamore beat the Shockers. But if they don't, those AT-LARGE chances start to really get slim.

Maryland at Boston College - Could be a letdown game for the Terps. BC played Duke tough at home. Expect the same here.

VCU at Saint Louis - Don't hear much about Saint Louis but they are a solid team that really helps its case with a win at home vs. VCU. Rams may be able to lock up their spot with this road win.

Wyoming at San Diego State - Whatever chance Wyoming has to get in includes a win here. Will not come easy by any means though. SDSU probably one win away from being a LOCK.

WEDNESDAY
Minnesota at Ohio State - Both teams lost soundly on Sunday. Both teams need to bounce back in what is a brutal Big Ten.

Washington at Arizona - Arizona still could be a 1 seed. Just can't lose anymore game at homes against inferior foes.

Kansas at Oklahoma State - OKST has been rocketing up the bracket and for good reason. It all started with their upset win in Lawrence. Pretty sure Kansas is out for revenge.

Colorado State at UNLV - Mountain West seems to have an enticing matchup every week. This is that matchup this week. Both teams in good shape to get in.

Ole Miss at South Carolina - A must-win for Ole Miss. Will do them no good but a loss will do nothing but bad.

Air Force at Boise State - Two Mountain West squads on the outside looking in. One of thsoe elimination games possibly?

Iowa State at Baylor - Baylor's resume could really use a quality win. Beating the Cyclones would qualify, even if it's in Waco.

 

THURSDAY

California at Oregon - Good game here between two teams that have found their stride. Oregon in not unbeatable in Eugene so would not be surprised one bit to see Cal compete or even win.

Cincinnati at UConn - UConn doesn't play like a team ineligible for postseason play. Cincinnati could use a good win to get some confidence back.

La Salle at Temple - Definitely got my eyes on this one. Teams are very similar in resume. Game may be at Temple but both teams are in Philly so might as well be neutral site. Huge stakes.

BYU at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's loss to Gonzaga leaves them with a very little margin of error. BYU is solid so beating them keeps them in the field. A loss may not.

Next update after Thurday's games.I already can't wait.


MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 14

Unlike this time last week, college basketball has been a bit more stable. That doesn't mean it still hasn't been fun to watch. Starting to notice a lot of teams that were shaky have settled down while others who were looked to be on firm foundation are now falling fast. With 4 weeks left, there's a lot to play for, especially before the conference tournaments begin, when officially all hell breaks loose.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I feel good now about adding Oklahoma State and Georgetown. The Hoyas have gone 8-1 in their last 9 and against some quality competition. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is riding a 6-game win streak that includes wins over 3 teams in my projected field.

LOCKS (20): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Georgetown



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Only one new team in the fold but a deserving one in California that put a hurting on UCLA. Ole Miss dropped out after another bad loss. Rebels are in real trouble now of missing the field.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (28): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton, Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, California

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Yet again, we lost a team from our BUBBLE. That team was Richmond. Still a lot of teams who need to start winning or keep winning if they want to get on more solid footing. Remember, once the conference tournaments begin, some of those AT-LARGE spots will dry up as upsets occur so getting off the BUBBLE is important.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Oklahoma, NC State, UCLA, VCU, UNLV, Colorado State, Creighton, Memphis, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky, North Carolina, Akron, Virginia, Temple, Indiana State, La Salle, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, California, Ole Miss, Boise State, Maryland, Alabama, Charlotte, St. John's, Arizona State, Villanova, UMass, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, Arkansas, Southern Miss, BYU, Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (5), MWC (4), MVC (3), SEC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Georgetown at Cincinnati - The Hoyas are making a march to a top 4 seed. Cincinnati was in that conversation. They can get back in it with a win.

SATURDAY
Duke at Maryland - Duke is playing for a 1 seed so every win is nice. But this one is about the Terps, who need big wins just to get a seed in the tourney.
Baylor at Kansas State - K-State is the tourney no matter what. Baylor is somewhat safe but a quality road win like this silences some critics.
Pittsburgh at Marquette - I think both teams are firmly in. That doesn't mean it's not a big game, especially when you consider how it could impact seeding.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - It's a big game because it's a rivalry. But it's also a big game because Oklahoma could probably lock up its spot with a victory.
Boise State at New Mexico - Look out for the Broncos, who are making a charge to get into the field. They are more than capable of pulling off this upset.
Colorado State at Air Force - Colorado State is trending upwards and will be a LOCK very soon. Air Force needs this to keep the positive momentum going in their case for the field.
Kentucky at Tennessee - Time to find out how UK responds without Nerlens Noel. If they respond well, they'll be fine. If not, their spot in the field is in real jeopardy.
Kent State at Ohio - If the Bobcats have any chance stay in the BUBBLE, they have to run the table until the MAC tourney.
Villanova at UConn - Villanova needs to do a lot after their loss to Cincy. Beating a very good UConn team will help.
Virginia at North Carolina - The Cavaliers are a curious case but one that is in my field as of now. North Carolina is also in right now so good game between a couple AT-LARGE teams.
Saint Joseph's at La Salle - Saint Joseph's is a good team. Just not good enough for the tourney. But La Salle I think is so getting a win here will confirm my belief.
TCU at Iowa State - We already know TCU can be a giant killer. Well, the Cyclones are not a giant but they are a team in need of a win after losing in 2OT at Texas.
Indiana State at Bradley - ISU is driving me crazy. They beat the best in the Missouri Valley but then fall to Missouri State. They need to win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't.
Virginia Tech at NC State - NC State has been free-falling and could really use a win to stop it. The one-time ACC favorites need to start playing like it again.
Creighton at Evansville - The Blue Jays were on track for a 3 or 4 seed. Now they are playing for something around a 7 or 8. That's what a 3-game losing streak will do to you.
Missouri at Arkansas - Mizzou is back to playing great basketball. Arkansas is as well but have more work to do in order to crack the 68.
UCLA at Stanford - UCLA is somewhat safely in despite being stomped by Cal. Stanford needs this win to keep the positive momentum.
South Carolina at Alabama - Simply put, a game Alabama cannot afford to lose.
Fresno State at Wyoming - See above. Replace Alabama with Wyoming.
Temple at UMass - Temple may think they are in good shape but I'm not so sure. UMass is starting to make a strong case themselves. Big game.
Charlotte at Saint Louis - That Charlotte win over Butler was huge. Saint Louis has been steady but not stellar. Both teams firmly on the BUBBLE.
Georgia at Ole Miss - Oh Rebels. 18-6 record but boy is that deceiving. Another bad loss like one here to Georgia and things really get ugly.
Arizona State at Colorado - Herb Sendek probably has a tourney-worthy team but they don't play like it at all times. They need to against Colorado, who also is fighting for a spot in the field.
San Diego State at UNLV - Both teams coming off losses. SDSU to Colorado State. UNLV to Air Force. Both are somewhat safely in but winner boosts the resume.

SUNDAY
Ohio State at Wisconsin - Both teams are gonna be in the dance. Wisconsin would love to defend homecourt and get another quality win. Buckeyes would love a 3 seed and play close to home in Dayton.
Miami (FL) at Clemson - You know how some teams get to the top and then lose a bad one? Looking at you Miami (FL). Don't do it.
Minnesota at Iowa - The Gophers win vs. Wisconsin was much needed and puts them in good shape. For Iowa, this is a must-have as they try and make a late push.
Illinois at Northwestern - The Illini are playing great basketball again and at the exact right time. Winning at Northwestern is never easy though.
Wichita State at Illinois State - I really want to put them in LOCK territory but they keep making it hard. This would be a pretty good road win.

Next update after Sunday's games. It's starting to get real now as we move to within a month of Selection Sunday. Keep it here for all the latest. 


MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 10

We're now 5 weeks away until Selection Sunday and I'm already noticing just how tough picking and seeding this year's field is going to be. For one, just look at this past weekend as solid teams lost bad games (some at home) and other teams that I had left for dead rose from the ashes. With a meaningful upset nearly every night, it's hard getting a real read for who these teams are. But this is a process so it's important not to react too much or too little to any one game.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I said after the last post that I would add to this list substantially. Well, I am a man of my word. 6 new teams in the group and for good reason. They have played great basketball this season and have shown no signs of falling apart as we near Selection Sunday. Hopefully none of them make me regret putting them in this group because I've never taken anyone out of this group in my 5 years.

LOCKS (18): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did find a few and have made those changes.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maybe the biggest change here is that the number of teams getting AT-LARGE bid are down from 36 to 30 as 6 teams graduated to LOCK status. This number will continue to shrink as more teams secure their spot in the field. Only new teams in the field are Virginia (who beat former AT-LARGE member Maryland on their home floor) and Saint Louis, who replaces Arizona State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (30): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:Obviously, some movement here. But nothing too drastic after the weekend's games. The BUBBLE continues to shrink in size though as teams like UTEP, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Washington lost, taking them out of consideration for now. There's plenty of time to rejoin the discussion but for now, they're out.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (49): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis, Arizona State, Maryland, Alabama, Villanova, Boise State, St. John's, UMass, Charlotte, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Richmond, BYU, Southern Miss, Arkansas, Wyoming, California, Iowa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 7

What a week of college basketball so far. Ohio State-Michigan. Kansas-TCU. Indiana-Illinois. Washington-UCLA. Last night alone, I saw 4 games that were decided in the final 20 seconds. It's called March Madness, not February Madness! All these fantastic finishes and upsets have made for long nights for this resident bracketologist. But this is what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not adding any teams to this list just yet. I'll probably add 3-4 teams, maybe more after this weekend. I know there are more than 12 teams that are securely but again, I don't want to take teams out if I don't have to. Again, expect this group to grow somewhat substantially by the next post.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: Not one change in this group.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Lots of moving around in this category as you might expect. A lot of teams lost while others got some big wins. Teams like Colorado, Illinois and Indiana State all beat ranked teams to help their cause. For Illinois and Indiana State, their wins propelled them from BUBBLE status to AT-LARGE status. Bad loss though by Alabama knocks them out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: A lot of movement up and down among this group. Have to mention that over these 4 days, I found myself overvaluing and undervaluing certain teams. For instance, I took Saint Louis out of the 68-team field (despite winning handily on Wednesday) after looking at their resume closer. I added St. John's to the BUBBLE (and fairly close to getting in) after examining them closer. It's all part of the process. The changes will not normally be that drastic but in this case, it had to be done.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (58): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Akron, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle, Saint Louis, Virginia, St. John's, BYU, Alabama, Villanova, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Arkansas, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio, Northwestern, Washington, Wyoming, Stanford, Florida State, UTEP, UMass, Texas A&M

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), Pac-12 (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Michigan is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 3

The Super Bowl is over. The NBA is barely past the halfway point. The NHL just got going. Seems like the perfect time to start focusing on another great year of Barnes Bracketology! I cannot believe that this is my fifth year doing this. What started as just a fun exercise to see if I was better than Lunardi turned into a full-on obsession with predicting the entire 68-team field.

If you are new to my Bracketology posts, here are my rules. Once I start, I do not look at any prominent Bracketology websites, such as ESPN or CBS Sports. I say prominent because I have friends who try and predict the field as well. I will read those so that way, I can get into some friendly banter with them during the process. But that's it.

I will update this blog every Sunday and Thursday in February. As we near Selection Sunday, the updates will become more frequent. I try to break it all down for you so you know exactly where I stand. I also make sure I follow every rule that the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee does.

Now this is the earliest I've ever started this and trust me, I will never start earlier than this. So expect a lot of movement as I try to get a real feel for these teams and where they should be seeded.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This category is for those teams are getting into the NCAA tournament, even if they do not win their conference tournament. Obviously, this is the group every team wants to be in. The group will look small now because I do not like to put someone in this group and then take them out. But as the weeks go on, teams will be added slowly but surely to give you a clearer picture of teams that are not on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: This group is all about teams that need automatic bids to get into the NCAA tournament. For all conferences besides the Ivy League, that means winning the conference tournament. Those tournaments are still weeks away though so for now, these are just educated guesses on who will ultimately win those tournaments. You will see a fair amount of change here, especially since I don't follow these small conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that will have to qualify for the tournament as an AT-LARGE but are not good enough to be a LOCK for the tournament field yet. These are in order in how I see the teams right now but this will fluctuate a ton as I get a better feel for these teams. It will nto change as much as we get closer. And don't forget. the last 4 teams in this group will be part of the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty self-explanatory group here. If you're not a LOCK, you are on the bubble because at any time, it could pop. Now, you will notice some AUTOS are in this group. That just means they are playing well enough that if they do not win their conference tournament, they have a chance to get in as an AT-LARGE. And you will notice that all of the AT-LARGE are in this group and in order. By seeing the last team in the AT-LARGE group and the first team after that, you'll know who is the first team out, and so on.

Again, this group will change an awful lot, especially these next 2 weeks, so don't read TOO much into them.

BUBBLE (56): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Akron, Villanova, Charlotte, Indiana State, Washington, Virginia, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio Richmond, Stanford, Rutgers, Iowa, Wyoming, Northeastern, California, UTEP, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), Pac-12 (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals for my final bracket on Selection Sunday:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

Normally, I'll post the games of the week here but not this time. Too many teams in the mix right now.

MB