2014 Barnes Bracketology: My Picks

So yesterday, I was very self-congratulatory about my predictions of the field. I can assure you that there will be no such post about my predictions of my picks of how the tournament actually turns out. 

That's because I have been notoriously bad with this part. Some years, I take too many chances and pick a lot of upsets. Other years, I look at numbers so hard that I talk myself out of just using common sense. Lately, I've gone more chalk which is less fun but supposedly more effective. I haven't seen the results of that yet. In fact, I finished dead last in a bracket pool just last year. It had 142 people in it. That's sad.

So with my credibility as a sports anchor in the balance, here are my picks for the 2014 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

MY PICKS

BREAKDOWN

SOUTH REGION

Best Second Round Matchup: 6 Ohio State vs. 11 Dayton - Two schools separated by an hour with all kinds of familiarity. OSU has a superior defense but cannot shoot. Dayton can shoot lights out but their defense is spotty at times. Neither team has a dominant big guy so this will come down to the guards.

Upset Special: 3 Syracuse vs. 14 Western Michigan - I'm not picking it but beware of the Broncos. The MAC is a solid league and a 14 seed for their regular season and tournament champ could mean Syracuse overlooks them. WMU is not great from 3-point range which would help against the zone but they do have a big man in Shayne Whittington who will get points in the paint and a natural scorer in David Brown. Also, WMU has faced zone from a Syracuse disciple in Rob Murphy's Eastern Michigan squad so they know what to expect. But the Orange are obviously much more athletic. They have not been great as of late (losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College at home) but they should survive this one.

Best Potential Matchup: 1 Florida vs. 2 Kansas - Talk about talent on the floor and teams with championship pedigree. This matchup just oozes great basketball. When Kansas is healthy, they have the highest ceiling of any team in this tournament. They depend a bit too much on young players which is a bit of a worry and Joel Embiid is not 100%. Florida has simply just won the last few months and plays the exact style that makes you feel like they are always in control. And they may not sport the lottery picks the Jayhawks do but these Gators can play with anyone....and beat them.

Final Four Sleeper: 7 New Mexico - They are an experienced team and a team on a roll right now. Fresh off a Mountain West Tournament title so they have good mojo heading into the Big Dance. They also have a sneaky good draw in a ho-hum Stanford squad, a Embiid-less Kansas team, and then either a struggling Syracuse or Ohio State squad before making the regional final.

Champion: 1 Florida - They are just the most solid team in the region bar none. They have not lost since December, been to 3 straight Elite Eights and are coached by a championship caliber coach in Billy Donovan. What worries me if anything is their lack of competition in the SEC. Are they ready for the likes of UCLA and Kansas?

WEST REGION

Best Second Round Matchup: 6 Baylor vs. 11 Nebraska -  What used to be an annual game in the Big 12 now will now decide who moves on and who heads home. This is a game between two of the hottest teams in the nation. Baylor was 2-8 in conference play but then went 7-1 to end the regular season and then made the Big 12 Tournament Championship. Nebraska was bounced by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals but they ended the year with a flurry of quality victories. And something tells me a team making their first tournament appearance since 1998 has something to prove.

Upset Special: 5 Oklahoma vs. 12 North Dakota State - Two words: Taylor Braun. The sharpshooter from the Bison is a stud. Averages 18 points and shoots 44% from 3-point range. He is a handful to guard and this is a confident team overall too. Only one loss since Jan. 9. The Sooners are a good team and no doubt can win this game. Something just tells me the Bison are primed to pull off this upset in Spokane.

Best Potential Matchup: 3 Creighton vs. 11 Nebraska - I want this just for the state of Nebraska. They don't often play each other (which is a shame) but are separated by 60 miles. We all know about Doug McDermott. But Nebraska is a fun watch as well. Shavon Shields and Terran Petteway are dynamic scorers and Tim Miles has coached this team up to be a great defensive squad.

Final Four Sleeper: 9 Oklahoma State - This is just truly a different team with Marcus Smart on it. Ever since he came back, this team has played at a new level. Yes, they have lost a few games since his suspension but they were all close. If they can pull off the upset vs. Arizona, they could see favorable matchups the rest of the way. Just beware a team on a mission like this one and a team with a point guard as god as Smart.

Champion: 1 Arizona - Just more talent than anyone else in this region. Nick Johnson is just the kind of guard you want on a team in March. Aaron Gordon is a freshman playing like a veteran down low. Nice role players like Kaleb Tarczewski and T.J. McConnell to round out a solid squad. And maybe most importantly, a great defensive team. They don't rush their shots and they challenge your shots. Will be tough to beat.

MIDWEST REGION

Best Second Round Matchup: 8 Kentucky vs. 9 Kansas State - Everyone is just giving this game to the Wildcats, who are crazy talented but also inconsistent. They have shown signs of real progress and nearly pulled off the huge upset of Florida in the SEC Tournament Championship. But now with all the pressure on them to win this game and many looking forward to their potential matchup with Wichita State, don't count out a letdown from them. And if they do not play their best, Kansas State can beat them. The Wildcats played in a rugged Big 12 and despite losing their last 3 games, have proven they can beat the big dogs like Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma. 

Upset Special: 5 Saint Louis vs. 12 NC State - NC State was a little bit lucky to get into the field but beware that kind of team that feels like they have something to prove to the committee and the nation. VCU felt the same way and rode that to the Final Four What is in NC State's favor is they played a bruised Xavier squad first (1-3 in last 4) in Dayton and then a bruised Saint Louis team, losers of 4 of their last 5. The Wolfpack have the ACC player of the year in T.J. Warren who can be a one-man wrecking crew. If he's on, look out. If he's off though, it could be a one-and-done for NC State.

Best Potential Matchup: 1 Wichita State vs. 4 Louisville - Yes, Louisville vs. Kentucky would be fun in the Sweet 16 but I like this matchup more. The top seed in the region vs. the team many feel is playing the best right now. Plus, a rematch of their Final Four showdown in Atlanta that went down to the end. Wichita State is a better team since that game while Louisville is not in my estimation. They are still incredibly talented but the Shockers have really grown in the past year. Both teams are on top of their game and the fact that this is just to advance to the Elite Eight is a real shame.

Final Four Sleeper: 2 Michigan - I know what you're thinking. They're a 2 seed but after about 36+ hours since the brackets were announced, who has picked them? A lot of attention has gone to Louisville and Duke to get to the regional final. Let's not forget about the Wolverines, who are capable of shooting lights out from 3-point range at any time. They have great guard play even with the loss of Trey Burke. They also happen to be coached by one of the best coaches out there in John Beilein who I would trust to draw up a play for me any day with 10 seconds or less on the clock.

Champion: 1 Wichita State - Not the sexiest pick right now but I think it's the smartest pick. Why not take the team that has not lost a game all season long! Say what you will about their schedule but this team made the Final Four a year ago and most of that team returns. The target is on their back this time around but judging by that undefeated record, they have handled that bulls eye just fine. It will not be an easy road but they are well-rested and ready for any and all takers.

EAST REGION

Best Second Round Matchup: 7 UConn vs. 10 Saint Joseph's - I really like the guard matchup of Shabazz Napier and Langston Galloway. Has the real possibility of being a game that goes down to the wire. Plus a fascinating coaching matchup between Kevin Ollie, coaching in his first NCAA Tournament game and Phil Martelli, who was under fire at St. Joseph's until he coached this team to the A-10 Tournament title.

Upset Special: 5 Cincinnati vs. 12 Harvard - This is a trendy pick and for good reason. The Crimson are a good team. They have won 20+ games the past 3 years. They are coached by a quality head coach in Tommy Amaker. They have the experience in beating New Mexico last year out west in a 3-14 matchup. And maybe most importantly, they play a Cincinnati team that is definitely beatable. The Bearcats tend to be a one-trick pony, counting on Sean Kilpatrick to do all the scoring. That's not a recipe for success in March. They are simply offensively challenged which means teams can stay in games with them. If Harvard stays in this game, they will win. They are a confident, veteran bunch who expect to win.

Best Potential Matchup: 1 Virginia vs. 3 Iowa State - It's always fun to see the offense vs. defense matchup in any sport. We saw that in the Super Bowl and the defense prevailed. What about in college basketball? Virginia boasts the best defense while Iowa State ranks in the top 10 of most offensive categories. A true clash of styles to advance to the Final Four? Sign me up!

Final Four Sleeper: 6 North Carolina - Never count out the Heels, even this team which underachieved at the start of the season but ended the season on a 12-2 run. The 2 losses have come in a row at the end but it was vs. Duke and Pittsburgh, so not against cupcake competition. They have the talent to win any game they want but they have to put it all together

Champion: 4 Michigan State - Sometimes it takes a whole season for you to play your best basketball. That's the case for the Spartans who are just now hitting their stride after being riddled with injuries all season long. They cruised through the Big Ten Tournament, showing signs of a team that will contend for a national championship. They have veterans at every position, they are ferocious on the defensive end, and have a coach you know will have them ready to go in every game in Tom Izzo. Easily one of the best 4 seeds in recent memory.

FINAL FOUR

Analysis: I could honestly see any of the 4 teams in the group winning it all. I'm going with Arizona though because I think they just have the best combination of offense, defense, experience, raw talent and coaching. They passed my eye test early in the season and did at the end as well. They just have the look and feel of a team that can make a run in 6 games vs. quality competition without being tripped up. Yes, they lost the Pac-12 Tournament Championship but this is the NCAA Tournament. To borrow from the MLB All-Star Game, this time, it counts.

So there you go. My picks from start to finish. Happy March Madness everyone!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: RECAP

Another year has come and gone for Barnes Bracketology and not to be "that guy" but I did really well. It was probably my best year yet. You'll see why below but first of all, I want to just thank everyone who read these posts. This is a labor of love for me that I picked up in 2009 and if not for the people who read and respond to the posts, it would not be nearly as much fun as it is, so thank you.

Now, to how great of a job I did!

NCAA BRACKET 

MY FINAL BRACKET

Let's start with my Bracketology goals first.

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region - NO

This did not happen. Got 3 of the 4 (Michigan wrong). I was willing to change it to Virginia around 4pm when I read a tweet that the committee had 2 contingencies, all but saying they were going to move Michigan out of that seed if they lost in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game, which they did. I did not change it though because it would have meant making a whole new bracket late in the game. They had the time, I did not.

2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots - YES

As far as the teams I predicted would be in the field, this is the first time in the 6 years I have done this that I have been able to complete this goal. I'm proud of this one the most because it means I have a real grasp for how to evaluate the teams and their resumes.

3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct - YES

Apparently, I need to make this a higher number because I got 100%!

4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup - YES

I call this one a bonus because it really is more to luck than skill, considering all the combinations. But I got one. In fact, I actually correctly predicted 9 matchups!

BARNES vs. THE "EXPERTS"

For the first time, I am going to compare my final bracket against the brackets of the two leading "expert" bracketologists: Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports

Teams In The Field:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Lunardi: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Palm: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

1 seeds:

Barnes: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Lunardi: 4 out of 4

Palm: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Team's Exact Seed:

Barnes: 37 out of 68

Lunardi: 39 out of 68

Palm: 35 out of 68

Team's Seed Within One Spot:

Barnes: 63 out of 68 (VCU, UConn, Oklahoma, Kentucky, NC State*)

Lunardi: 61 out of 68 (New Mexico, Saint Louis, UConn, Colorado, UMass, Kentucky, NC State*)

Palm: 58 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, St. Joseph's, UConn, BYU, Kentucky, Cincinnati, VCU, Saint Louis, NC State*)

Team's Seed Within Two Spots:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State*)

Lunardi: 66 out of 68 (UMass, NC State*)

Palm: 65 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, NC State*)

Correct Second/Third Round Sites For Top 4 Seeds:

Barnes: 16 out of 16

Lunardi: 12 out of 16

Palm: 8 out of 16

Teams Seeded 1-4 (not necessarily in right seed):
Barnes: 16 out of 16
Lunardi: 16 out of 16
Palm: 15 out of 16 (Cincinnati)

Teams Placed in Correct Second/Third Round Site:
Barnes: 33 out of 68
Lunardi: 17 out of 68
Palm: 25 out of 68

Teams in "First Four" Games:
Barnes: 7 out of 8 (Arizona State)
Lunardi: 4 out of 8 (Coastal Carolina, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton)
Palm: 6 out of 8 (BYU, SMU)

Actual Matchups:
Barnes: 9 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Iowa-Tennessee, Syracuse-WMU, Villanova-Milwaukee, SDSU-NMST, Creighton-LA Lafayette, Wisconsin-American, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Lunardi: 4 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, SDSU-NMST, Cincinnati-Harvard, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Palm: 5 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Arizona-Weber State, Oklahoma-NDSU, UNC-Providence)

First Team Out:
Barnes: Minnesota
Lunardi: Southern Miss
Palm: Missouri

So judging by the statistics above, I was the best of the 3 in a number of categories. I think Lunardi got all the 1 seeds right because of the same tweet I saw. Earlier in the day, I heard him say on Sportscenter that he did not think Virginia could get to the 1 seed. I doubt he had a change of heart. I think instead he saw the tweet and went to work on getting UVA to a 1 seed.

He did correctly put more teams in the right seed but in every other category, I was superior. I had more teams closer to their actual seed and missed none by more than 2, something the "experts" cannot say. Lunardi was particularly awful at placing teams in the right site. Palm was a little better but I was clearly better than both. I dominated the play-in games, correctly getting the 16 seed teams and 3 of the final 4 teams in the field. We all missed NC State getting in the field.

If you add up their actual matchups, you get to my total. Again, another category I was stellar in. And I added the last team in to prove that none of the 3 really considered NC State as the next one in exactly. I had them as the 5th team out. Lunardi had them 7th team out. Palm doesn't list after his first four out so they were at least 5th out.

So there it is. Feel free to listen to those guys on TV and read their stuff on the websites next year but just know that the information you see right here is just as accurate and credible as theirs, if not more.

I pride myself on this now and worked probably too hard to make sure it is the best it can be. And I am proud to say this year, it was better than those than guys who actually get paid to do it!

As far as how I thought the committee did, I think they did a fine job. Yes, Virginia as a 1 seed is a bit controversial but there was not a clear 4th team there for that spot so I'm fine with it. MSU and Louisville are dangerous 4 seeds but their body of work deserved a 3 or 4 seed so that's fine. Kentucky as an 8 seed seems really low. This team is getting better, not worse. Adding NC State instead of SMU is okay by me. SMU's non-conference schedule was a joke and so they were penalized. Just weird to see a team that was ranked going into Championship Week not make the field.

When it comes to how they bracketed the team, I have a little beef in how they did that. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could meet in the Sweet 16. Same for Louisville and Kentucky. Yeah, it would be exciting but you try to avoid those kind of rematches until as late as possible. BYU and Gonzaga in the same region goes against the bracketing policies. Baylor playing in San Antonio when Creighton is the 3 seed seems unfair. And teams from the same conference in the same half of a region is all over the place.

But such is life. Regardless, I'm excited for this tournament. I may be able to predict the field but as far as predicting who will win the whole thing, I'm worthless. I have not won a bracket pool in my life but maybe this is the year!

I'll post my predictions though (for the first time) on the blog tomorrow!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: FINAL

As expected, I didn't see the need to make any major changes after the first 3 conference championship games and no matter the results in the final 2, I feel like this is my best guess.

BRACKET

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 S-CURVE

1. Florida (SEC)

2. Arizona (Pac-12)

3. Wichita State (MVC)

4. Michigan (Big Ten)

5. Virginia (ACC)

6. Kansas (Big 12)

7. Villanova (Big East)

8. Wisconsin (Big Ten)

9. Louisville (AAC)

10. Duke (ACC)

11. Iowa State (Big 12)

12. Creighton (Big East)

13. Syracuse (ACC)

14. Michigan State (Big Ten)

15. San Diego State (Mountain West)

16. UCLA (Pac-12)

17. Cincinnati (AAC)

18. North Carolina (ACC)

19. Ohio State (Big Ten)

20. UConn (AAC)

21. New Mexico (Mountain West)

22. Saint Louis (A-10)

23. UMass (A-10)

24. Kentucky (SEC)

25. Oklahoma (Big 12)

26. VCU (A-10)

27. Baylor (Big 12)

28. Texas (Big 12)

29. Memphis (AAC)

30. Colorado (Pac-12)

31. Oregon (Pac-12)

32. George Washington (A-10)

33. Kansas State (Big 12)

34. Gonzaga (West Coast)

35. Oklahoma State (Big 12)

36. Nebraska (Big Ten)

37. Pittsburgh (ACC)

38. BYU (West Coast)

39. Saint Joseph's (A-10)

40. Stanford (Pac-12)

41. SMU (AAC)

42. Dayton (A-10)

43. Providence (Big East)

44. Iowa (Big Ten)

45. Arizona State (Pac-12)

46. Tennessee (SEC)

47. Xavier (Big East)

48. Harvard (Ivy)

49. North Dakota State (Summit)

50. Tulsa (CUSA)

51. New Mexico State (WAC)

52. Western Michigan (MAC)

53. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

54. Manhattan (MAAC)

55. Mercer (Atlantic Sun)

56. Delaware (Colonial)

57. Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)

58. Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley)

59. NC Central (MEAC)

60. American (Patriot)

61. Milwaukee (Horizon)

62. Wofford (Southern)

63. Weber State (Big Sky)

64. Coastal Carolina (Big South)

65. Albany (America East)

66. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)

67. Texas Southern (SWAC)

68. Cal Poly (Big West)

Okay, here are my Bracketology goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post tomorrow letting you know just how well or terrible I did.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 16

Selection Sunday is here! It's always a bittersweet day for me because it brings an end to this fun journey that is Barnes Bracketology. But at the same time, it means I get a few more hours to do what I want. Oh, and that the Madness is about to begin! I will be making two posts today. This will be mi final full post. The second one will simply be a final bracket, my true seed list and my Barnes Bracketology goals revisited. I expect to post it around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament championship (around 4:30pm).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Well, we could technically only add one more to this group because at minimum, I need 4 AT-LARGE teams since they are headed to Dayton for the First Four. I added 2 teams though (Saint Joseph's and Providence) and moved one out of here (Iowa). Had some many shuffling among the group. Most noteworthy, Michigan is now among my top 4 and is a 1 seed in the bracket. Also, UCLA and Michigan State move into the top 16 and given 4 seeds.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (43): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Michigan, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin, Louisville, Duke, Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse, San Diego State, UCLA, Michigan State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Ohio State, UConn, New Mexico, Saint Louis, UMass, Kentucky, Oklahoma, VCU, Baylor, Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Oregon, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Pittsburgh, BYU, Saint Joseph's, SMU, Stanford, Dayton, Providence

AUTOS: Only one more conference tournament champion to be decided among this group (Sun Belt). Beyond tat, what a group this is. Lot of top seeds did not survive.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal Poly, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Tulsa, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As I stated yesterday, I am confident these teams are in. They just get the good fortune to start their Madness in Dayton.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (4): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Might as well just call this the group of teams that wish they had just one more game to prove their worth. Obviously, the first 4 teams are fine because they are AT-LARGE teams and in the field in my mind. As for the other 6, maybe just one quality win short of cracking the field.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (10): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, California, NC State, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs (maybe) - Michigan is my pick for that final top seed. And it may be even if they lose the Big Ten title. Much like the committee, I don't imagine changing that close to when the brackets need to be complete. Virginia has a chance if they beat Duke but I'm not sure it's worth upsetting the whole bracket and then Michigan winning anyways. I estimate the committee has their 4 top seeds set, before the final 5 games tonight even begin.

2. 68 out of 68 - I have never been more confident in my projected field. Besides that Sun Belt title game (which honestly, who cares), I am 99% sure I have the exact 68 teams that the committee will pick for the field. I've never done that. Missed it by one team each of the past 2 years. I just see a clear divide between the final at-large teams and the teams on the bubble. If it's that clear, I think the committee will see it that way too. Last couple years, there has been a bit of a gray area. Not this year.

3. Bracketing is tough - A quick insight for you. This is not easy. So many times, moving one team can upset the entire bracket, which is why I think today's games really won't mean much to the committee. It's just too late. For instance, making sure BYU is playing at sites that only play on Thursday and Saturday is tedious (BYU does not play on Sundays for religious reasons). Also, making sure you apply the policies on keeping conference teams from meeting earlier in the tournament that they have to. Plus, making sure you put teams in the right cities in the 2nd and 2rd rounds. For example, I put Syracuse in Buffalo, even with that 4 seed because the committee sent Syracuse to San Jose a season ago. I don't see them sending the Orange to the West Coast two years in a row. All these things are what I have to consider to make this bracket.

Again, final bracket posted around 4:30pm. Until then, enjoy the final 5 games before the Madness begins!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 15

Tomorrow, my Bracketology journey ends and the breaking down of the brackets process begins. This has been one of the more interesting years for Barnes Bracketology. For once, it is not that we have a dearth of mediocre teams but instead, a lot of teams with some actually deserving cases. Plus, we have a group of about 12-16 teams that could be seeded anywhere from 4-7 seeds. Makes for some longer than usual time to seed and bracket the teams but hey, that's why I get paid the big bucks to do this (I don't get paid anything).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Alright, we are one day away from Selection Sunday. Time to take some chances and make some more bold decisions on LOCKS. Today, that means Pittsburgh, SMU and Stanford. Pitt gets in thanks to a win over UNC in the ACC tourney. SMU did not play yesterday but enough teams lost to clinch their spot. And Stanford lost yesterday but have done enough in and out of conference to feel safe I think.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (42): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Creighton, Iowa State, Syracuse, San Diego State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, UConn, Saint Louis, UMass, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Memphis, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Baylor, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Iowa, SMU, Stanford


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal State Northridge, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: 5 spots are what I think this field comes down too. And to be honest, I really think it's down to 1. I feel good that Saint Joesph's (still alive in A-10 tournament), Arizona State (done), Tennessee (still alive in SEC tournament) and Xavier (done) are in the field. Where they stand in the committee's eyes may be different than mine. As for that final spot, Providence replaces Minnesota, who I thought really needed to beat Wisconsin to help their cause. Providence plays for the Big East tournament title today and with a win could move right into the AUTO territory. This is the first time I've put Providence in this category. Better late than never right?

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: As stated above, with just one spot really up for grabs, this really comes down to which teams below are still alive for that one spot. Those are Providence and NC State. So beware the Wolfpack. The others are out in my mind but maybe not to the committee.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (11): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Minnesota, Missouri, NC State, Arkansas, California, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Wisconsin is my 4th #1 right now but that could switch easily. Michigan is still alive and so is Virginia. I'm not as high on Villanova's chances as others.

2. 67 out of 68 - I really think this field is set with the exception of that final spot. I may have the order/seeding off from the committee but not the field. Providence could make it easy and win today and then, I think it's all set. That is unless...

3. Beware the bid stealers -NC State could complicate things with a win vs. Duke. Also, Georgia is still alive in the SEC tournament and so is St. Bonaventure in the A-10. The Bonnies were a late add 2 years ago so I'm not counting them out to mess up my all-but-finished bracket

I will post a bracket before the games tomorrow and then another around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament that will serve as my FINAL bracket.

MB