2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 28

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. We are now just 2 weeks away until Selection Sunday so to say things are getting serious for the teams on the BUBBLE would be a understatement. While some truly helped their cause this past weekend, others really hurt it with bad losses on the road or at home. The top seeds weren't immune to the upset either as 3 of my 1 seeds lost over the weekend. All of this just means I had a lot of work to do and changes to make. But that's what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: As we get closer to the tourney, I said this group would grow pretty consistently. Well, it starts with this post as we add 5 teams as LOCKS. George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV and UCLA all won over the weekend and all seem to be in good shape, no matter what happens over the next 2 weeks. I could have added a couple more teams but couldn't quite pull the trigger.

LOCKS (30): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, and UCLA.

AUTOS: Just a couple of changes here as I have changed my mind on who I think will win the automatic bid from some conferences. You'll see the changes in italics. You may also notice the number dropped to 22 AUTOS as George Mason moved to the LOCKS category.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Conference USA - UAB, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: As expected, plenty of change in this group. 4 of the teams moved to the LOCKS category. Others suffered awful losses at home (Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota) or on the road (Alabama and Colorado State). Some survived their loss and remain in this category while others find themselves back on the outside looking in. Of course, because of those losses, some teams moved up because of handling their business and winning, like Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Clemson.

Again, these are in order from most safe to least safe. I would say the top half of this group is in fairly good shape, unless they completely fall apart. The bottom half though needs to keep winning to feel good at all.

AT-LARGE (16): West Virginia, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson and Memphis.

BUBBLE WATCH

Not sure if I have written this on the blog yet but man, is this a weak group of BUBBLE teams this year. Just a lot of teams that really have no business being considered it seems but have to be to fill out a 68-team bracket. This group has shrunk as some teams have moved up to LOCKS while two teams have seen their bubble been burst as of now (Sorry to Dayton and Wichita State fans). We also did add two teams in Colorado and Central Florida (UCF), who earned consideration after quality victories over the weekend. Again, these are in order and while making a dramatic move from the bottom to the top of this list is possible (Virginia Tech did just that in a week), it is very hard so don't be surprised to see some of the BUBBLE bottom-feeders fall by the wayside with just one more loss.

BUBBLE (34): West Virginia, Utah State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Florida State, Washington, St. Mary's, Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Georgia, Butler, UAB, Richmond, Cleveland State, Alabama, Clemson, Memphis, Missouri State, Southern Miss, Colorado State, Baylor, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Boston College, Maryland, UTEP, Minnesota, VCU, Valparaiso, and UCF.

SEEDING

You will see quite a few seed changes in this latest post, and a lot of them among the top seeds. Kansas moves up to a 1 seed and BYU is up to a 2 seed. Notre Dame didn't lose but falls to a 3 seed, while Georgetown continues their fall, as they go to a 4 seed. Syracuse and North Carolina both move up one while Arizona and Texas A&M dropped one. Beyond that, just some minor cosmetic shifting on the bracket as we continue to put the puzzle together. As usual, some teams may seem to have higher/lower seeds than expected but sometimes that is necessary to make the bracket fit the rules/regulations put forth by the NCAA.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 McNeese State (18-9)/Texas Southern (16-10) - Cleveland
#2 San Diego State (27-2) vs. #15 Bucknell (22-8) - Tucson
#3 Notre Dame (23-5) vs. #14 Charleston (22-9) - Chicago
#4 Georgetown (21-8) vs. #13 Oakland (22-9) - Tucson
#5 Kentucky (20-8) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-7) vs. #11 Georgia (19-9) - Chicago
#7 Temple (22-6) vs. #10 St. Mary's (23-7) - Tucson
#8 UCLA (21-8) vs. #9 Cincinnati (22-6) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (21-9) - Tulsa
#2 Purdue (24-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (23-6) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-6) vs. #14 Vermont (22-7) - Tampa
#4 UConn (21-7) vs. #13 Belmont (27-4) - Denver
#5 Arizona (23-6) vs. #12 Alabama (19-9)/Clemson (19-9) - Denver
#6 Villanova (21-8) vs. #11 Butler (21-9) - Tampa
#7 UNLV (22-7) vs. #10 Marquette (18-11) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (26-3) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (19-8) - Tulsa

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (18-11)/Montana (20-9) - Cleveland
#2 Texas (24-5) vs. #15 Long Beach State (19-10) - Tulsa
#3 Wisconsin (22-6) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (26-4) - Washington D.C.
#4 North Carolina (22-6) vs. #13 Princeton (22-5) - Charlotte
#5 St. John's (19-9) vs. #12 UAB (20-7) - Charlotte
#6 Xavier (22-6) vs. #11 Tennessee (17-12) - Washington D.C.
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 Washington (19-9) - Tulsa
#8 Kansas State (20-9) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-12) - Cleveland

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Murray State (23-7) - Charlotte
#2 BYU (27-2) vs. #15 Long Island (24-5) - Denver
#3 Syracuse (24-6) vs. #14 Kent State (19-10) - Washington D.C.
#4 Louisville (2-7) vs. #13 Memphis (21-8)/Cleveland State (24-7) - Tampa
#5 Vanderbilt (21-7) vs. #12 Richmond (22-7) - Tampa
#6 Texas A&M (22-6) vs. #11 Gonzaga (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 West Virginia (18-10) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Denver
#8 Old Dominion (24-6) vs. #9 Illinois (18-11) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Kansas State at Texas - Both teams are safely in. This could help propel Kansas State up in seeding and Texas back in contention for a 1 seed.

TUESDAY
Ohio State at Penn State - A must have for Penn State, who is barely clinging on to the BUBBLE as it is.
Illinois at Purdue - Plain and simple, if the Illini get this win on the road, they will be dancing.
Alabama at Florida - The Tide need a win badly. They have this game and then at home versus Georgia. They need to at least go 1-1 but 2-0 would be better.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - Good game with two teams firmly in the tourney. But how will this affect seeding if at all?
Missouri at Nebraska - Mizzou has been awful on the road all the season. Good news for the Huskers, who are great at home and in desperate need of a marquee win.
Baylor at Oklahoma State - The Bears took a step in the right direction with an upset win at home versus Texas A&M. A loss at OKST would be unacceptable.
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Two BUBBLE teams still fighting. BC needs it more than VT, who is coming off the upset of #1 Duke.

That's it for now. My hope is do another post after Tuesday's games but if I don't, it will be after Thursday's action as as you can see, not a ton of games on Monday and Tuesday that will affect the seeding. Of course, feel free to leave comments here on the blog or on Facebook or on my Twitter.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 25

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology. It has been a crazy 4 days in college basketball and the bracket has changed because of it. Lots of upsets have shaken up the seedings and who is in and who is out. As usual, I will note the changes in small recaps before each section. I also have included records, the order of the BUBBLE teams, and more to make this the most in-depth post yet.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not one change in this category. All of these teams are safe and no team in the past week took any real strides into joining this group. so for now, still just 25 strong.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: A couple changes were made in this category, and you'll notice them in the italics. UTEP is out as my projection to win Conference USA after two losses in a row. I replaced them with Memphis. Also out is Hampton in the MEAC, replaced by Bethune Cookman.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Bethune Cookman, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group has no doubt seen some change as lots of teams had some big wins or some bad losses. Among the good wins, Marquette (at UConn), Tennessee (at Vanderbilt), Cincinnati (at Georgetown), Gonzaga (at St. Mary's) and Kansas State (at Nebraska). Road wins versus teams already projected in the tournament are always going to move you up in the bracket. Now among the bad losses, Florida State (at Maryland), Minnesota (vs. Michigan State), and Nebraska (vs. Kansas State). The teams that have been added to this list will be in italics. Again, this list is on order as well.

AT-LARGE (20): UNLV, Cncinnati, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Illinois, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, and Minnesota.

BUBBLE WATCH

For the first time, I have put the BUBBLE teams in order. This is important as this is how I see the teams that are fighting for an AT-LARGE spot. This is a very fluid category as teams will move up and down often until Selection Sunday. For instance, Gonzaga went from a BUBBLE to an AT-LARGE with its big win over St. Mary's. On the flipside, a team like Boston College who was close to becoming an AT-LARGE team lost a bad one at home to Miami (FL), putting them near the bottom of this list. If any new teams are added to this list, which is possible, they will be in italics but for now, here is the order. Remember, this can include teams in the AUTO category in the event that they do not win their conference tournament.

BUBBLE (39): George Mason, UNLV, Cincinnati, Utah State, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Washington, Kansas State, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, Illinois, St. Mary's, Alabama, Marquette, Gonzaga, Florida State, Georgia, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech, Cleveland State, Minnesota, Richmond, Southern Miss, Nebraska, Clemson, Maryland, Penn State, Missouri State, Dayton, VCU, Wichita State, Boston College, Baylor, UTEP and Valparaiso.

SEEDING

You will see some changes here for sure. Among the top seeds, the biggest move is Purdue has moved up to a 2 seed while Georgetown has fallen after losing at home to Cincinnati. Florida is up to a 3 seed while UConn falls down. Syracuse also moves up to a 4 seed, replacing Vanderbilt. Other teams have made slight moves up and and down, and they will be reflected below. Also, I made a mistake in scheduling BYU in the East region in my bracket. That is not allowed as BYU cannot play on Sundays due to religious reasons, meaning they must play in places that are Thurs/Sat so they have been moved to the Southeast region. Playing in Denver is still good as that site plays on Thurs/Sat.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (4), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WCC (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Team has moved up since last post
Team has moved down since last post

EAST REGION - Newark
#1 Ohio State (26-2) vs. #16 Bethune-Cookman (17-11)/Murray State (22-7) - Cleveland
#2 Notre Dame (22-5) vs. #15 Fairfield (22-5) - Chicago
#3 Florida (22-5) vs. #14 Vermont (22-6) - Tampa
#4 Louisville (21-7) vs. #13 Harvard (20-4) - Tucson
#5 North Carolina (21-6) vs. #12 Missouri State (22-7) - Tucson
#6 Missouri (22-6) vs. #11 Marquette (17-11) - Tampa
#7 Temple (21-6) vs. #10 Illinois (17-11) - Chicago
#8 Washington (19-8) vs. #9 Kansas State (19-9) - Cleveland

SOUTHEAST REGION - New Orleans
#1 Pittsburgh (25-3) vs. #16 McNeese State (17-9)/Texas Southern (15-10) - Cleveland
#2 Purdue (23-5) vs. #15 Long Island (23-5) - Chicago
#3 BYU (26-2) vs. #14 Coastal Carolina (25-4) - Denver
#4 Arizona (23-5) vs. #13 Belmont (26-4) - Denver
#5 Texas A&M (22-5) vs. #12 Georgia (18-9) - Denver
#6 St. John's (18-9) vs. #11 Florida State (19-8) - Denver
#7 George Mason (24-5) vs. #10 St. Mary's (22-7) - Chicago
#8 Utah State (25-3) vs. #9 Michigan State (16-11) - Cleveland

SOUTHWEST REGION - San Antonio
#1 Texas (24-4) vs. #16 Long Beach State (18-10) - Tulsa
#2 San Diego State (27-1) vs. #15 Bucknell (21-8) - Tucson
#3 Wisconsin (21-6) vs. #14 Charleston (22-8) - Washington D.C.
#4 Syracuse (23-6) vs. #13 Cleveland State (23-7) - Tampa
#5 Kentucky (19-8) vs. #12 UAB (19-7)/Virginia Tech (18-8) - Tampa
#6 Villanova (21-7) vs. #11 Gonzaga (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#7 Cincinnati (22-6) vs. #10 Alabama (19-8) - Tucson
#8 Old Dominion (23-6) vs. #9 UCLA (20-8) - Tulsa

WEST REGION - Anaheim
#1 Duke (26-2) vs. #16 Montana (20-8) - Charlotte
#2 Kansas (26-2) vs. #15 Florida Atlantic (20-9) - Tulsa
#3 Georgetown (21-7) vs. #14 Kent State (19-9) - Charlotte
#4 UConn (20-7) vs. #13 Oakland (21-9) - Washington D.C.
#5 Vanderbilt (20-7) vs. #12 Butler (20-9) - Washington D.C.
#6 Xavier (21-6) vs. #11 Colorado State (18-9)/Minnesota (17-10) - Charlotte
#7 UNLV (21-7) vs. #10 Tennessee (17-11) - Tulsa
#8 West Virginia (17-10) vs. #9 Memphis (21-7) - Charlotte

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Harvard at Brown - Brown is the only team to hand Princeton a loss in the Ivy League this season. Could they do the same to Harvard?
Cornell at Princeton - With the regular season determining who gets the automatic bid for the league, Princeton can't afford a slip-up against the Big Red.

SATURDAY
Duke at Virginia Tech - Duke is firmly in. VT is anything but. A win here would do wonders for their chances.
BYU at San Diego State - Game of the weekend that no one knows about. Winner here is all but guaranteed a 2 seed and keeps hope alive for a 1 seed.
Arizona at UCLA - Zona just lost a bad one at USC. This may be the perfect time for UCLA to pull off the upset that gets them that much closer to locking up their spot.
Syracuse at Georgetown - This one is all about seeding. Georgetown needs to stop the bleeding while Syracuse is trending up.
Florida at Kentucky - It's not impossible for Florida to grab a 2 seed, especially with a quality road win in Lexington.
St. John's at Villanova - The Red Storm are looking to move up yet another seed line. Nova is trying to stop their slide down.
Texas A&M at Baylor - Baylor is getting near that territory of needing to win every game left. This would be huge for them.
Missouri at Kansas State - Missouri is awful on the road. Perfect time for Kansas State to pull off another upset win at home and get another Top-50 RPI victory.
Wichita State at Missouri State - Could be a dreaded "elimination game" with these two. One should get the automatic bid. The other probably ends up on the outside looking in.
Memphis at UTEP - UTEP lost 2 bad games this week. For bubble chances, they need this one. Memphis looks better with this road win as well.
Michigan at Minnesota - Minnesota is falling fast. A win at home against UM must happen or expect them to have to make a deep run in the conference tournament again.

SUNDAY
Pittsburgh at Louisville - The Panthers are a 1 seed now. They may not be with a loss at Louisville, who is barely hanging on to their 4 seed.
Purdue at Michigan State - Purdue is a solid 2 seed now but a loss at an unranked MSU team would hurt. MSU really adds to the resume with this upset win at home.
UConn at Cincinnati - I'm not afraid to say it. If Cincinnati wins this game, they are a LOCK to make the tournament. Too many good wins to leave them out.
Xavier at Dayton - Dayton is hanging on by a thread as a BUBBLE. If they want to serious contenders for an AT-LARGE, this is an upset they must have.

That's all for now. Hope this post satisfied all your bracketology needs. It better, cause it took me forever to do. Next post will come Monday after this weekend's games. Until then, enjoy the basketball this weekend.

MB

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 21

Welcome to the first of (hopefully) many posts of what I like to call Barnes Bracketology. This is my third year doing this right here on the blog and I am excited to do it again. It's a tedious and time-consuming task but one that I don't mind because it challenges me...and I love challenges.

If this is your first time checking out my Bracketology, here is how I do things. I read the NCAA procedures on how to compile the bracket each year, as they tend to change year-by-year. That is especially true this year as the field expands to 68. After I read them, I start compiling my list of teams I think are in consideration. From there, I start to pick the 68 teams that I think will make it, before ultimately seeding the teams and placing them in the bracket. Now normally, I don't put them in a bracket until 2 weeks before Selection Sunday. But I am getting better and faster at this process that I have my 2nd bracket done already!

My other big ground rule is that I vow to not look at any other website (ESPN, SI, Fox Sports, etc...) and check their bracket predictions. Trust me, it's hard but I will not look until my final bracket is done. I do this so that my work is my work. I have no temptation to cheat off someone else or get ideas from someone else when I feel lazy. Now I will compare with friends' predictions so if you would like to join me in my quest, please do so!

So there you go. I will be posting often, especially as we get closer to Selection Sunday, when I will post daily. Comments are always welcome, especially if it is to correct a glaring error.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for teams that whether they win their conference tournament or not, are going to receive a bid to the tournament. With Selection Sunday 3 weeks away, this list may seem short but it needs to be. I do my best to not move teams in this category. If you're a lock, you are a LOCK. As the games go on, you will see teams added to this list. But for now, this is the list and in no particular order. It kind of goes by conference now but as teams get added, they will just go to the end of this list.

LOCKS (25): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

AUTOS: This group is for those teams that will receive their bid by winning their conference tournament. Now this is a tough one to predict as I clearly do not have knowledge of who is going to ultimately win the smaller conferences' tournaments. So what I do normally is just go with the team with the best record in the conference when I make a bracket. Once the conference tournaments get going, this will change a ton as favorites fall. Some will move to the AT-LARGE section, others will stay in the BUBBLE section, and others will never be seen again.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - George Mason, Conference USA - UTEP, Horizon - Cleveland State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Fairfield, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Missouri State, Northeast -Long Island, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Charleston, Southland - McNeese State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic, WAC - Utah State, WCC -St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: This group is obviously for the teams I think are going to make the field by earning an AT-LARGE bid. This is in order but beware, these will fluctuate quite often as I continue to get a handle on these teams. Again, these are in order from feeling safe to not feeling so safe. Also, remember the last 4 teams in this category will be playing in the 2 "First Four" games to earn a spot in the newly-named second round.

AT-LARGE (20): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, and UAB.

BUBBLE WATCH

Now, the way the BUBBLE works is fairly simple. These are the teams that will be worrying come Selection Sunday. Every team in the AT-LARGE category will be in here as well because well, they are not guaranteed a spot, but instead just in my projected bracket. Some AUTOS will be here as well as they will become BUBBLE teams if they do not win their conference tournaments as they are expected to. Normally, I would put these in order but not this time.

BUBBLE (39): West Virginia, UNLV, Illinois, Washington, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, Minnesota, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Alabama, Memphis, Nebraska, Marquette, Butler, Colorado State, UAB, Richmond, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Baylor, VCU, Southern Miss, Valparaiso, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Penn State, Dayton, St. Mary's, Utah State, George Mason, Cleveland State, UTEP, and Missouri State.

SEEDING

This is no doubt the hardest part about this process. Seeding the teams is tough because so many team sometimes deserve higher seeds but there are just simply not enough slots. Plus, you have to change some seeds to follow the procedures set forth by the NCAA. And without a full committee, I find myself using RPI, team's record, SOS, and my gut as the real guide to where these teams end up. It has worked well the past 2 years and see nothing changing this year.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), ACC (3), Pac-10 (3), C-USA (3), A-10 (2), Colonial (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHEAST vs. SOUTHWEST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

Now in future posts, I will post the records of the teams here and games to watch for the next day or 2 but for now, little tired so not gonna happen right now. For now, just click on the bracket.

That's all for now. I'll update this probably Wednesday or Thursday night after some of these big games that could affect seeding. Hope you enjoyed it and check back soon.

MB

2010 NFL Predictions

As usual, I am putting my "reputation" on the line and predicting the NFL. I never tend to do well in this department. I haven't picked a Super Bowl champion since the Patriots won their second of three titles last decade. And beyond that, I've just done pretty poor picking the right playoff teams. But that's the fun of the NFL. You never know what teams are going to surprise you and make a run (Jets last year). So with all that in mind, laugh as you will and enjoy my predictions for the 2010 NFL season.

AFC EAST
1. NY Jets 11-5
2. New England 10-6
3. Miami 8-8
4. Buffalo 4-12

THOUGHTS: The Jets defense is the reason they win the division. Their secondary will keep passing attacks at bay, including the Pats who really lack a run game. The Jets offense should also improve with guys like Santonio Holmes around...New England is going to be good, we know that. Tom Brady hasn't lost a step and Wes Welker returns. The defense is what will determine who far this team goes...Miami is a playoff team in any other division but having to face the Pats and Jets is tough. Chad Henne looks like a quality NFL QB and that running game is one of the best in the NFL...Buffalo will be a boring team to watch, except for C.J. Spiller. Case closed.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore 12-4
2. Cincinnati 10-6
3. Pittsburgh 9-7
4. Cleveland 4-12

THOUGHTS: Baltimore is the clear favorite in this division. They've added some great players to go along with a team that already looked like a team that would contend in 2010...Cincinnati also added some nice pieces. T.O. and Ocho may be the ones we hear about but Jordan Shipley is the guy to watch in the slot. Their defense has to be as good if not better than last year though...Pittsburgh will miss Roethlisberger in those first 4 weeks. Once he gets back, there's no guarantee this team wins. They struggled last season against inferior teams. Expect some of that inconsistency this year too...Cleveland did get better, just not as much as they need to be competitive in this division.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis 13-3
2. Houston 9-7
3. Tennessee 7-9
4. Jacksonville 5-11

THOUGHTS: The Colts will go as Peyton goes, and that's far as usual. The defense should have Bob Sanders healthy which only makes them more scary...The Texans have the talent to make the playoffs this season on offense. The defense is what may keep them back...Tennessee will be able to run that ball but will they be able to pass the ball? Vince Young is still a wild card in that department. Their defense also needs to improve to compete with offenses likes Indy and Houston...Jacksonville has too many holes to compete. Their O-Line is in shambles, their receiving corps lacks real weapons, and the defense is young and inexperienced.

AFC WEST
1. San Diego 10-6
2. Oakland 7-9
3. Denver 6-10
4. Kansas City 5-11

THOUGHTS: San Diego is slowly declining I think. Their run game may take a slight step back as rookie Ryan Mathews gets used to a 16-game season. Their pass game should be okay without Vincent Jackson. Their defense is a bit of a question mark...Oakland really has an opportunity to be a contender. Jason Campbell gives them a serviceable QB to go along with a run game that wasn't bad. They are starting to believe they can win...Denver looked like they were gonna win the AFC for awhile last year and then fell off the map. The defense is gonna have to carry this team cause the offense on paper isn't that impressive...Kansas City is just looking to improve. Matt Cassel is a good QB but didn't get much time to throw. The defense also needs to improve mightily.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas 11-5
2. Washington 9-7
3. NY Giants 8-8
4. Philadelphia 7-9

THOUGHTS: Dallas has the most talent by far in this division so anything short of a division title would be a major disappointment...I've always though the Redskins were just a good QB away from winning. They have that now with McNabb, who just wins and gets no respect...NY Giants are going to be competitive but aren't strong enough on either side of the ball to win this division. The defense is aging and the offense is too sporadic...Philly is now in the hands of Kevin Kolb. I see him playing well like Matt Schaub in his first year with the Texans. He'll get better but this will be a struggle to reach .500.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay 12-4
2. Minnesota 11-5
3. Chicago 5-11
4. Detroit 5-11

THOUGHTS: Green Bay is talented on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is a Pro-Bowl caliber QB with weapons like Greg Jennings and JerMichael Finley to throw too. The defense is led by Charles Woodson, A.J. Hawk and others who should take this team far...The Vikes got Brett Favre back, which was huge considering how bad Tarvaris Jackson is. If Favre's ankle holds up, they have a chance to compete with the Packers for the division crown. The defense is what makes them so good though...The Bears defense is not as scary as it was 3 years ago. The Bears offense will need to make up for that. Mike Martz takes over as offensive coordinator which is a good move. Jay Cutler has to cut down on the INTs though...The Lions are poised to make some strides this season. Matthew Stafford is proving he has the arm, awareness, and brains to be an NFL QB. The addition of Jahvid Best to that offense should make it fun to watch each week too.

NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans 11-5
2. Atlanta 10-6
3. Carolina 7-9
4. Tampa Bay 2-14

THOUGHTS: The Saints have to be the favorite, after their run last year. Nearly everyone returned on an offense that can pick apart any secondary and a defense that doesn't let up on the pressure...The Falcons were bitten by the injury bug last year. If not, they would have been in the playoffs. Michael Turner should be better than ever and the defense should be much improved as well...The Panthers are now Matt Moore's team and that is a good thing. Moore is a playmaker at QB with a good arm and some mobility, which is good with a suspect O-Line. The run game will play a huge role in how good this team is...Tampa Bay is still rebuilding. Josh Freeman needs to really take some steps forward or the Bucs may be thinking about Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett instead of the playoffs.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 10-6
2. Arizona 7-9
3. Seattle 7-9
4. St. Louis 4-12

THOUGHTS: The Niners should have no problem winning this division. Their defense is one of the best in the NFL and the offense is progressing nicely. Alex Smith having the same offensive coordinator for a second straight season finally should help...Arizona's future hinged on Kurt Warner's decision and well, that didn't go well for the Cards. Derek Anderson is not the answer at QB and with the offense unable to score tons of points, expect the defense to really have to improve...Seattle has the potential to be a sleeper in this division. Matt Hasselbeck isn't a bad QB as long as he just manages the game. Justin Forsett is a quality RB too. The defense has some bright spots too. They could surprise some people...St. Louis did the right thing in drafting Sam Bradford who looked great in preseason. They are still at least a season away from competing but pieces are being put in place.

AFC PLAYOFFS
NY Jets over Cincinnati
New England over San Diego

Baltimore over NY Jets
Indianapolis over New England

Indianapolis over Baltimore

NFC PLAYOFFS
Atlanta over Dallas
Minnesota over San Francisco

Green Bay over Atlanta
New Orleans over Minnesota

Green Bay over New Orleans

SUPER BOWL
Indianapolis over Green Bay

OTHER FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
- NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Offensive Player: Peyton Manning, IND
- Defensive Player: DeMarcus Ware, DAL
- Offensive Rookie: Jermaine Gresham, CIN
- Defensive Rookie: Ndamukong Suh, DET
- Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary, SF
- Coaches fired after the season: Eric Mangini (CLE), Jack del Rio (JAX), Lovie Smith (CHI), John Fox (CAR), Raheem Morris (TB)
- First pick of 2011 NFL Draft: Jake Locker, QB, Washington (to Tampa Bay)

2010 College Football Week 2

Week 1 was good, but Week 2 should be better. Here are my picks and some mini-analysis.

GAME OF THE WEEK

1. #18 Penn State @ #1 Alabama - May be surprised that I see this as the game of the week instead of the one in Columbus. But I'm really intrigued by this game. Bama is the clear favorite but don't count out Penn State. This game reminds me of OSU-USC a year ago when a freshman QB just managed a game well and then the defense did its job against a pretty good offense. If PSU can put up 17-20 points, this game could be very interesting. Alabama 24-7

BEST OF THE REST

2. #12 Miami (FL) @ #2 Ohio State - There's a lot of talk surrounding this game. A lot of it isn't even warranted considering the players that are playing in this game have no history. But all the talk is sure to make this an intense game on the field. The 'Canes have talent for sure but I don't think their O-Line and run game is going to be able to compete with the Ohio State defense. Also, Terrelle Pryor looks very comfortable in the pocket, which can only mean bad things for the 'Canes defense. Ohio State 23-10

3. #22 Georgia @ #24 South Carolina - The loss of A.J. Green will hurt UGA in this game. They are going to need offense, especially since Stephen Garcia and the Gamecocks look to have found their stride (finally). UGA is bigger, faster and stronger but in this rivalry, that really doesn't matter. South Carolina 31-24

4. #17 Florida State @ #10 Oklahoma - FSU looked impressive in their opener. Oklahoma did not (24-17 win over Utah State?!?). Landry Jones really struggled too, even though he had 12 starts a year ago. Oklahoma should wake up while FSU will fall back down to earth a little bit, now that they play a big boy. Oklahoma 28-17

5. South Florida @ #8 Florida - It's safe to say that Florida is not as bad as they played against Miami (OH). If they do play that bad though, South Florida has the talent to pull off the upset. The Gators say they have the snapping snafu figured out. So maybe once and for all we'll find out how good the team is. Florida 31-24

6. Michigan @ Notre Dame - It was just a year ago when Michigan looked impressive and everyone thought the Wolverines had arrived. last week, the Wolverines looked impressive. So have they arrived? I think not. Notre Dame is a tougher test than UConn and it won't be at the Big House. Notre Dame 31-13

7. #7 Oregon @ Tennessee - I thought Oregon would miss Jeremiah Masoli. After looking at their Week 1 performance, I'm not so sure about that. The Ducks were just about flawless on offense. But playing in Neyland Stadium is never easy, even when you're the better team. Oregon 34-24

8. #23 West Virginia @ Marshall (FRI) - This rivalry has been a bit lopsided. Actually, incredibly lopsided considering Marshall has never beaten the Mountaineers. If there's ever been a chance, here it is. WVU is still trying to figure out how good they are while at the same time, probably underestimating how good the Herd are after they lost 45-7 to OSU. West Virginia 30-24

9. #19 LSU @ Vanderbilt - LSU probably should have lost to North Carolina but got lucky down the stretch. Now, Les Miles goes from a game he probably needed to win to one he has to win. Not only is it an SEC game but it's Vandy. But Vandy played well against Northwestern last week and are capable of winning this game if they just play turnover-free football. LSU 34-14

10. Iowa State @ #9 Iowa - With this game being at Iowa, the chances of the upset in this rivalry game are much less. But because it is a rivalry game, you can't count out the Cyclones. They are coming off a surprising 7-win season last year and will play like there's no tomorrow against the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Iowa's defense giving up more than 10 points though. Iowa 27-10

11. #21 Auburn @ Mississippi State (THURS) - One of those classic too close to call SEC games. Auburn isn't an overly impressive team so having to beat an up and coming Mississippi State team on the road will be no easy task. This one will probably come down to which team makes the least mistakes considering neither team has the offense or defense that can really take a game over. Auburn 31-21

12. #25 Stanford @ UCLA - I'm a big fan of Stanford's offense. Even without Toby Gerhart, I think they have the talent to put up 45-50 on just about anyone. That includes UCLA, who is starting to show strides with Rick Neuheisel leading the way. Stanford 38-20

13. #15 Georgia Tech @ Kansas - It's never easy to beat the Yellow Jackets, especially when you only get a week to prepare for their potent triple option attack. For Kansas, it'll be all but impossible to win, at least it will be if the same Jayhawks team that lost to North Dakota shows up. Kansas scored just 3 points in that game last week. They're gonna need a lot more than that this week. Georgia Tech 33-14

14. Central Michigan @ Temple (THURS) - Quality MAC opener for both teams. Central Michigan is trying to prove they can win without Dan LeFevour, their 4-year starter at QB. Temple came one win away from winning the MAC East last year and return a good core that should make another run. The loser here already falls one back in their respective divisional race. Temple 17-13

15. Toledo @ Ohio - The Rockets never left the launch pad against Arizona last week, scoring just 2 points while giving up 41. Yikes. The 'Cats didn't exactly look stellar against Wofford but like other teams in the first week, got the job done. Beating Toledo shouldn't be a problem. Leaving this game relatively injury free would be a nice perk for OU, who face the Buckeyes next week. Ohio 27-13