2015 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 2

HAPPY MARCH! This is the month I look forward to for 11 months because I know that madness will ensue. But before we get to that, we have to have a field of 68 teams to populate the bracket. Some may look at my projections and think I am being conservative with some of my calls but I play it safe in this process. Only make calls that are 100% and make projections that make sense. That's what made me so accurate the last 5 years and better than the likes of ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS' Jerry Palm. There is a method to my madness....and trust me, it is madness!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I was hoping to add 4 teams to this group after the weekend but instead, end up with just 2. Those being Dayton and St. John's. Both beat teams that were already LOCKS, which is the best kind of win, so it made for a pretty easy decision. Came close to adding a few others but it will take one more game before I feel absolutely confident that "bid stealers" won't steal their bid in the case they falter in their final few games.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (28): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga Kansas, Maryland, Baylor, Utah, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Wichita State, North Carolina, Iowa State, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, SMU, Providence, VCU, Butler, Georgetown, Dayton, San Diego State, St. John's



AUTOS: As I do every weekend with this group, I reconsider who is actually the frontrunner to win the automatic bid. I made a couple changes. Very soon, some of these guesses will just be fact as conference tournaments get underway for some this week.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Sacramento State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Another frustrating from this group. 3 of the top 6 in the group lost, keeping them from being promoted. Another 2 teams did not play which neither hurt or helped them. 3 teams dropped out, though only 2 did because of losses. The 3 who are now out are Illinois (who won), Pittsburgh and Stanford. Their replacements all had great wins. BYU won at Gonzaga. Boise State won at San Diego State and Oregon won at Stanford. Beating a good team is always good. Beating them on the road though is great, and worthy of a big bump.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Fascinating week for many in this group. Most of them got huge wins, including the ones I mentioned above. Others like Davidson, Tulsa, and UMass won as well but those wins did not carry the same weight. They are still very much alive though so keep an eye on them these last couple of weeks. I added UConn to this group as well. The defending champs are playing well right now and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they player their way into the field.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State, Temple, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Michigan State, LSU, Texas A&M, Iowa, Ole Miss, Purdue, Boise State, Oregon, NC State, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Davidson, Stanford, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, UMass, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Texas, Old Dominion, UConn

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), Mountain West (3), A-10 (2),  Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Boise State, BYU, Oregon

NEW TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois, Stanford

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Monday

Virginia at Syracuse - Win this game and UVA is probably locked in as a 1 seed. Two more losses probably won't be enough to keep them from this honor

Baylor at Texas - Texas is already 6-10 in Big 12 play. It will take at least 8-10 to think about an at-large bid again.

Tuesday

Kentucky at Georgia - Kentucky is a 1 seed no matter what. A Georgia win though locks up their spot, pulling off this huge upset.

Villanova at Creighton - Nova is barely a top seed now. Can easily blowing it by losing this easy one.

Rhode Island at Dayton - URI can't lock up their spot but this would go a long way to getting close.

Iowa at Indiana (BUBBLE SPECIAL): Indiana win locks up their spot. Iowa win may do the same.

Ole Miss at Alabama - Ole Miss looked safe not too long ago. Lose here and they could be in real trouble.

NC State at Clemson - You can't beat Louisville and North Carolina and then drop games at BC and Clemson and expect to get in.

Texas A&M at Florida - The kind of game Texas A&M needs to win to take all doubt away from the committee.

Wednesday

Ohio State at Penn State - Buckeyes win, they are a lock. Plain and simple.

Tennessee at LSU - LSU is doing everything right lately. Keep it that way and they'll be a happy bunch on Selection Sunday.

Richmond at UMass - UMass pretty much needs to win out and make a deep run in the A10 Tourney.

Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Has a feeling of a "the team that loses sees their bubble burst" kind of game.

Purdue at Michigan State (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Both will be okay if they lose but the winner locks up their spot.

TCU at Oklahoma State - OK State just needs to avoid the bad loss to lock up their spot. Been that way the last 3 games.

Cincinnati at Tulsa (BUBBLE SPECIAL) - Big opportunity for Tulsa to prove they are worthy. Cincy can absorb this loss but would rather not still.

USC at UCLA - USC is really bad. So UCLA better win to stay in the conversation.

Colorado State at Nevada - Colorado State looks like a tourney team. Loss here may make others think maybe not.

Nebraska at Illinois - Can you say "must-win" for the Illini? Because I can.

Boise State at San Jose State - SJSU has yet to win a conference game. This would not the right time for Boise State to be in a giving mood.

Oregon at Oregon State - It's a rivalry game but for Oregon, it takes on more meaning as they play for a NCAA Tournament berth too.

Thursday

Wisconsin at Minnesota - Wisconsin can still get that final 1 seed. One loss though ends that dream most likely.

VCU at Davidson - VCU is safe. Davidson is not. So you get the point.

Temple at East Carolina - Temple needs to avoid the bad loss. This would be a bad loss.

Marshall at Old Dominion - ODU cannot afford any loss in any way.

Memphis at UConn - UConn is charging hard and needs to if they want to stay in the discussion.

Stanford at Arizona State - Stanford has had plenty of chances to not be in the position they are in. ASU is not an easy win in Tempe but the Cardinal need it badly.

Next update after Thursday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 27

Just think, the next post after this one will be in March! Not sure where you are reading this from but here in Columbus, it's freezing. So the month of March brings about two things. One, the best sporting event in the world. And two, the hope of warmer weather. But in case the warmer weather doesn't come that soon, the good news is you can just stay inside and watch March Madness inside anyways!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Truly expected to add 2-3 teams to this group after Sunday's post but the top 3 teams in the AT-LARGE group all lost so no changes. Maybe by the weekend, we'll be able to get this group up to 30 teams, especially when you consider how close we are to the finish line. The biggest changes here just came in the shuffling as Wisconsin is no longer a top seed, now  replaced by Villanova, who holds a slight edge on Gonzaga for the final number one seed.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (26): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas, Maryland, Utah, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, North Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisville, VCU, SMU, Providence, Georgetown, San Diego State, Butler



AUTOS: No changes until after the weekend. Nothing to see here.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Kudos to NC State, doing what very few BUBBLE teams do. Take the control out of the hands of the committee and the bracketlogists and proving they belong in the field by beating quality competition and on the road! Their latest win at North Carolina vaulted them from out of the field to in the field, and without playing in the "First Four". Beyond them, lots of shuffling but no new teams jumping in. Texas is the team that falls out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Xavier, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Temple, Ole Miss, St. John's, Colorado State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Georgia, Texas A&M, Purdue, Iowa, NC State, LSU, Stanford, Illinois, UCLA, Pittsburgh

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Bubbles just keep bursting. Losses by Rhode Island and Wyoming have them longer under consideration. UMass lost as well and are barely hanging on. I brought Old Dominion back from the dead but as you can see, it's still a longshot. Still about 7 teams on the outside looking in who are very much alive, depending on their results and those in front of them.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (30): Xavier, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Temple, Ole Miss, St. John's, Colorado State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Georgia, Texas A&M, Purdue, Iowa, NC State, LSU, Stanford, Illinois, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Boise State, Texas, Davidson, Miami (FL), Tulsa, BYU, UMass, Old Dominion

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), ACC (7), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: NC State

NEW TEAMS OUT: Texas

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 23

Three weeks now until Selection Sunday, Just three. Hard to believe. But what a run to the tournament we are about to have. Two weeks of some great games are ahead, including some huge ones for some teams on the bubble. And then, of course, a week of conference tournaments, which means college basketball on TV starting at noon all the way until 2am. It's a fantastic time of the year, only trumped by the next weekend, when the Big Dance begins in earnest.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Two new additions to this group after the weekend. San Diego State has avoided that really bad loss and with their record and RPI, they are surely getting in even if they trip up in the conference tournament. Same goes for Butler, who despite losing to Xavier, has done enough to keep the committee from leaving them out.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (26): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Maryland, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, VCU, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisville, Providence, Georgetown, SMU, San Diego State, Butler



AUTOS: Made a few changes here as some teams are losing grips on regular season conference titles and others have RPI numbers that are just difficult to ignore. Constant change is coming to this category very soon.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - Northeastern, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Central Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As you can imagine, this is the group to put together. Have about 14 teams that I think are fairly solid and just have to put them in order. But after that, it gets a little dicey, especially as these teams find ways to lose bad games or even just close games against teams that could really help their resume. Pittsburgh did their part to fight back into the field, taking down Syracuse on the road. But that's the only change.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Xavier, Indiana, Ole Miss, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Temple, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Texas A&M, Purdue, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, LSU, Stanford, UCLA, Pittsburgh

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Good news for the teams in this group is that no one had their bubble burst from last week, despite a couple of them losing. But the teams on the outside looking in are running out of time to make an impression and move up. Miami (FL) fell out of the AT-LARGE group not because of a bad loss (at Louisville) but because the more you look at the math, it's hard to argue they are more worthy than some others ahead of them. And that's just how Bracketology goes.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (31): Xavier, Indiana, Ole Miss, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Temple, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Texas A&M, Purdue, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Illinois, LSU, Stanford, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Boise State, NC State, Oregon, Miami (FL), Davidson, Tulsa, BYU, UMass, Rhode Island, Wyoming

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: Pittsburgh

NEW TEAMS OUT: Miami (FL)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 20

I had two friends on Twitter on Monday saying how this college basketball season just has not been riveting enough. I disagreed and said they just haven't been watching. Well, these past 4 days proved that college basketball is alive and well. Games like Purdue-Indiana, West Virginia-Kansas, Xavier-Cincinnati and of course the Duke-North Carolina OT thriller were must-see TV for any sports fan. And that was just 4 days of games. Just imagine what is it come in the days and weeks to come as the importance of these games is multiplied.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I said in the last update don't be surprised if I add 3-4 teams to this group as there is less time for teams to really mess up their resumes. Well, I didn't add 3-4. I added 5. Maryland is in and probably should have already been. Also, joining this group are Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown and SMU. All won over the past 4 days and have or are very close to 20 wins on the season.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (24): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Baylor, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Louisville, Arkansas, VCU, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, SMU



AUTOS: No changes here. Will make any necessary changes after this weekend's games.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As usual, this group saw its fair share of changes. Much of it had to do with movement out of the group with those 5 teams graduating to LOCKS. Miami (FL) rejoined the group after two wins in the 4 days. Pittsburgh dropped out despite a fine loss as Virginia. The quality wins of the week went to Xavier, Purdue, and Texas A&M who all beat fellow teams in this category, with the first two teams doing it on the road nonetheless.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (22): Butler, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Ohio State, Indiana, Xavier, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Texas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Texas A&M, Purdue, Iowa, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Miami (FL), UCLA

 BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Right now, we just have a group of 10 teams on the outside looking in. Pretty good at this point. That just means teams are starting to separate themselves as contenders or pretenders. And this group could get smaller, depending on their results over the next few games. Or of course, it could grow. Did not make one addition but did say goodbye to George Washington and Seton Hall for now.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (33): Butler, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Ohio State, Indiana, Xavier, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Temple, Texas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, St. John's, Illinois, Texas A&M, Purdue, Iowa, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Miami (FL), UCLA, Boise State, BYU, NC State, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tulsa, Davidson, Rhode Island, UMass, Wyoming

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: UCLA, Miami (FL)

NEW TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2015 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 16

With less than 4 weeks now until Selection Sunday, now it gets fun. Each team has about 5-6 games left and the ones who feel like they are LOCKS to get in are trying for one of those top 2-3 seeds. Those who are on the BUBBLE know just one win vs. a ranked team could be their ticket to the dance. It makes for great TV as teams are playing harder than ever before. Hope you're enjoying it as much as I am.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We've added more teams to this group. One is a returner and one is a newcomer. The returner is VCU, who after taking down George Washington on the road, did what they needed to do for me to convince me they can win without Briante Weber. The newcomer is Arkansas, who at 20-5, looks like a team that should make the field. Don't be surprised if by Friday's update, this group grows by 3-4 more teams as teams now have less time to mess up already good resumes.

This group is in order, so you have an idea of how they rank on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (19): Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, Iowa State, Louisville, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Baylor, Wichita State, Arkansas, Northern Iowa, VCU



AUTOS: Made some changes within this group as some teams had better weeks than others. Again, many of these are pure guesses as it's hard to follow these conferences. Plus, the conference tournaments are all that matters for most of these conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Albany, American - SMU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - William & Mary, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - St. Francis (NY), Ohio Valley - Murray State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Good amount of changes here. Added 3 teams and shuffled the group quite a bit thanks to some results over the weekend. Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and UCLA had the biggest wins and were rewarded for it. Others who did lose were hurt a bit but not enough to fall out of the field. Can't say the same though for Boise State, Seton Hall and idle Miami (FL), who are on the outside looking in now.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (26): Maryland, Butler, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Dayton, Texas, Ohio State, Temple, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. John's, Xavier, Georgia, Colorado State, Illinois, Stanford, Iowa, LSU, UCLA, Texas A&M, Purdue, Pittsburgh

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: So the group that was 50, then 47, then 44 is now down to 40. That's how it goes on the bubble. You can always get into the mix but it's much easier to just have your bubble burst. Just ask Alabama, Washington, and Tennessee, who all are not mentioned this time. The teams near the end of this list likely need to win out before their conference tournament to get some real consideration. Those near the top just need to avoid the truly bad loss against a cellar dweller type of team.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (40): Maryland, Butler, Providence, West Virginia, Georgetown, SMU, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Dayton, Texas, Ohio State, Temple, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ole Miss, St. John's, Xavier, Georgia, Colorado State, Illinois, Stanford, Iowa, LSU, UCLA, Texas A&M, Purdue, Pittsburgh, Boise State, Miami (FL), BYU, NC State, Seton Hall, UMass, Oregon, Tulsa, Wyoming, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
 Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), American (3), A-10 (2), Mountain West (2), Missouri Valley (2)

NEW TEAMS IN: UCLA, Purdue, Pittsburgh

NEW TEAMS OUT: Boise State, Miami (FL), Seton Hall

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB