2014 Barnes Bracketology: RECAP

Another year has come and gone for Barnes Bracketology and not to be "that guy" but I did really well. It was probably my best year yet. You'll see why below but first of all, I want to just thank everyone who read these posts. This is a labor of love for me that I picked up in 2009 and if not for the people who read and respond to the posts, it would not be nearly as much fun as it is, so thank you.

Now, to how great of a job I did!

NCAA BRACKET 

MY FINAL BRACKET

Let's start with my Bracketology goals first.

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region - NO

This did not happen. Got 3 of the 4 (Michigan wrong). I was willing to change it to Virginia around 4pm when I read a tweet that the committee had 2 contingencies, all but saying they were going to move Michigan out of that seed if they lost in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game, which they did. I did not change it though because it would have meant making a whole new bracket late in the game. They had the time, I did not.

2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots - YES

As far as the teams I predicted would be in the field, this is the first time in the 6 years I have done this that I have been able to complete this goal. I'm proud of this one the most because it means I have a real grasp for how to evaluate the teams and their resumes.

3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct - YES

Apparently, I need to make this a higher number because I got 100%!

4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup - YES

I call this one a bonus because it really is more to luck than skill, considering all the combinations. But I got one. In fact, I actually correctly predicted 9 matchups!

BARNES vs. THE "EXPERTS"

For the first time, I am going to compare my final bracket against the brackets of the two leading "expert" bracketologists: Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports

Teams In The Field:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Lunardi: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

Palm: 67 out of 68 (NC State)

1 seeds:

Barnes: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Lunardi: 4 out of 4

Palm: 3 out of 4 (Michigan)

Team's Exact Seed:

Barnes: 37 out of 68

Lunardi: 39 out of 68

Palm: 35 out of 68

Team's Seed Within One Spot:

Barnes: 63 out of 68 (VCU, UConn, Oklahoma, Kentucky, NC State*)

Lunardi: 61 out of 68 (New Mexico, Saint Louis, UConn, Colorado, UMass, Kentucky, NC State*)

Palm: 58 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, St. Joseph's, UConn, BYU, Kentucky, Cincinnati, VCU, Saint Louis, NC State*)

Team's Seed Within Two Spots:

Barnes: 67 out of 68 (NC State*)

Lunardi: 66 out of 68 (UMass, NC State*)

Palm: 65 out of 68 (UMass, Gonzaga, NC State*)

Correct Second/Third Round Sites For Top 4 Seeds:

Barnes: 16 out of 16

Lunardi: 12 out of 16

Palm: 8 out of 16

Teams Seeded 1-4 (not necessarily in right seed):
Barnes: 16 out of 16
Lunardi: 16 out of 16
Palm: 15 out of 16 (Cincinnati)

Teams Placed in Correct Second/Third Round Site:
Barnes: 33 out of 68
Lunardi: 17 out of 68
Palm: 25 out of 68

Teams in "First Four" Games:
Barnes: 7 out of 8 (Arizona State)
Lunardi: 4 out of 8 (Coastal Carolina, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton)
Palm: 6 out of 8 (BYU, SMU)

Actual Matchups:
Barnes: 9 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Iowa-Tennessee, Syracuse-WMU, Villanova-Milwaukee, SDSU-NMST, Creighton-LA Lafayette, Wisconsin-American, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Lunardi: 4 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, SDSU-NMST, Cincinnati-Harvard, Wichita State-Cal Poly/Texas Southern)
Palm: 5 (Cal Poly-Texas Southern, Albany-Mount St. Mary's, Arizona-Weber State, Oklahoma-NDSU, UNC-Providence)

First Team Out:
Barnes: Minnesota
Lunardi: Southern Miss
Palm: Missouri

So judging by the statistics above, I was the best of the 3 in a number of categories. I think Lunardi got all the 1 seeds right because of the same tweet I saw. Earlier in the day, I heard him say on Sportscenter that he did not think Virginia could get to the 1 seed. I doubt he had a change of heart. I think instead he saw the tweet and went to work on getting UVA to a 1 seed.

He did correctly put more teams in the right seed but in every other category, I was superior. I had more teams closer to their actual seed and missed none by more than 2, something the "experts" cannot say. Lunardi was particularly awful at placing teams in the right site. Palm was a little better but I was clearly better than both. I dominated the play-in games, correctly getting the 16 seed teams and 3 of the final 4 teams in the field. We all missed NC State getting in the field.

If you add up their actual matchups, you get to my total. Again, another category I was stellar in. And I added the last team in to prove that none of the 3 really considered NC State as the next one in exactly. I had them as the 5th team out. Lunardi had them 7th team out. Palm doesn't list after his first four out so they were at least 5th out.

So there it is. Feel free to listen to those guys on TV and read their stuff on the websites next year but just know that the information you see right here is just as accurate and credible as theirs, if not more.

I pride myself on this now and worked probably too hard to make sure it is the best it can be. And I am proud to say this year, it was better than those than guys who actually get paid to do it!

As far as how I thought the committee did, I think they did a fine job. Yes, Virginia as a 1 seed is a bit controversial but there was not a clear 4th team there for that spot so I'm fine with it. MSU and Louisville are dangerous 4 seeds but their body of work deserved a 3 or 4 seed so that's fine. Kentucky as an 8 seed seems really low. This team is getting better, not worse. Adding NC State instead of SMU is okay by me. SMU's non-conference schedule was a joke and so they were penalized. Just weird to see a team that was ranked going into Championship Week not make the field.

When it comes to how they bracketed the team, I have a little beef in how they did that. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could meet in the Sweet 16. Same for Louisville and Kentucky. Yeah, it would be exciting but you try to avoid those kind of rematches until as late as possible. BYU and Gonzaga in the same region goes against the bracketing policies. Baylor playing in San Antonio when Creighton is the 3 seed seems unfair. And teams from the same conference in the same half of a region is all over the place.

But such is life. Regardless, I'm excited for this tournament. I may be able to predict the field but as far as predicting who will win the whole thing, I'm worthless. I have not won a bracket pool in my life but maybe this is the year!

I'll post my predictions though (for the first time) on the blog tomorrow!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: FINAL

As expected, I didn't see the need to make any major changes after the first 3 conference championship games and no matter the results in the final 2, I feel like this is my best guess.

BRACKET

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 S-CURVE

1. Florida (SEC)

2. Arizona (Pac-12)

3. Wichita State (MVC)

4. Michigan (Big Ten)

5. Virginia (ACC)

6. Kansas (Big 12)

7. Villanova (Big East)

8. Wisconsin (Big Ten)

9. Louisville (AAC)

10. Duke (ACC)

11. Iowa State (Big 12)

12. Creighton (Big East)

13. Syracuse (ACC)

14. Michigan State (Big Ten)

15. San Diego State (Mountain West)

16. UCLA (Pac-12)

17. Cincinnati (AAC)

18. North Carolina (ACC)

19. Ohio State (Big Ten)

20. UConn (AAC)

21. New Mexico (Mountain West)

22. Saint Louis (A-10)

23. UMass (A-10)

24. Kentucky (SEC)

25. Oklahoma (Big 12)

26. VCU (A-10)

27. Baylor (Big 12)

28. Texas (Big 12)

29. Memphis (AAC)

30. Colorado (Pac-12)

31. Oregon (Pac-12)

32. George Washington (A-10)

33. Kansas State (Big 12)

34. Gonzaga (West Coast)

35. Oklahoma State (Big 12)

36. Nebraska (Big Ten)

37. Pittsburgh (ACC)

38. BYU (West Coast)

39. Saint Joseph's (A-10)

40. Stanford (Pac-12)

41. SMU (AAC)

42. Dayton (A-10)

43. Providence (Big East)

44. Iowa (Big Ten)

45. Arizona State (Pac-12)

46. Tennessee (SEC)

47. Xavier (Big East)

48. Harvard (Ivy)

49. North Dakota State (Summit)

50. Tulsa (CUSA)

51. New Mexico State (WAC)

52. Western Michigan (MAC)

53. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

54. Manhattan (MAAC)

55. Mercer (Atlantic Sun)

56. Delaware (Colonial)

57. Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)

58. Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley)

59. NC Central (MEAC)

60. American (Patriot)

61. Milwaukee (Horizon)

62. Wofford (Southern)

63. Weber State (Big Sky)

64. Coastal Carolina (Big South)

65. Albany (America East)

66. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)

67. Texas Southern (SWAC)

68. Cal Poly (Big West)

Okay, here are my Bracketology goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post tomorrow letting you know just how well or terrible I did.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 16

Selection Sunday is here! It's always a bittersweet day for me because it brings an end to this fun journey that is Barnes Bracketology. But at the same time, it means I get a few more hours to do what I want. Oh, and that the Madness is about to begin! I will be making two posts today. This will be mi final full post. The second one will simply be a final bracket, my true seed list and my Barnes Bracketology goals revisited. I expect to post it around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament championship (around 4:30pm).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Well, we could technically only add one more to this group because at minimum, I need 4 AT-LARGE teams since they are headed to Dayton for the First Four. I added 2 teams though (Saint Joseph's and Providence) and moved one out of here (Iowa). Had some many shuffling among the group. Most noteworthy, Michigan is now among my top 4 and is a 1 seed in the bracket. Also, UCLA and Michigan State move into the top 16 and given 4 seeds.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (43): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Michigan, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin, Louisville, Duke, Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse, San Diego State, UCLA, Michigan State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Ohio State, UConn, New Mexico, Saint Louis, UMass, Kentucky, Oklahoma, VCU, Baylor, Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Oregon, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Pittsburgh, BYU, Saint Joseph's, SMU, Stanford, Dayton, Providence

AUTOS: Only one more conference tournament champion to be decided among this group (Sun Belt). Beyond tat, what a group this is. Lot of top seeds did not survive.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal Poly, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Tulsa, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As I stated yesterday, I am confident these teams are in. They just get the good fortune to start their Madness in Dayton.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (4): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Might as well just call this the group of teams that wish they had just one more game to prove their worth. Obviously, the first 4 teams are fine because they are AT-LARGE teams and in the field in my mind. As for the other 6, maybe just one quality win short of cracking the field.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (10): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, California, NC State, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs (maybe) - Michigan is my pick for that final top seed. And it may be even if they lose the Big Ten title. Much like the committee, I don't imagine changing that close to when the brackets need to be complete. Virginia has a chance if they beat Duke but I'm not sure it's worth upsetting the whole bracket and then Michigan winning anyways. I estimate the committee has their 4 top seeds set, before the final 5 games tonight even begin.

2. 68 out of 68 - I have never been more confident in my projected field. Besides that Sun Belt title game (which honestly, who cares), I am 99% sure I have the exact 68 teams that the committee will pick for the field. I've never done that. Missed it by one team each of the past 2 years. I just see a clear divide between the final at-large teams and the teams on the bubble. If it's that clear, I think the committee will see it that way too. Last couple years, there has been a bit of a gray area. Not this year.

3. Bracketing is tough - A quick insight for you. This is not easy. So many times, moving one team can upset the entire bracket, which is why I think today's games really won't mean much to the committee. It's just too late. For instance, making sure BYU is playing at sites that only play on Thursday and Saturday is tedious (BYU does not play on Sundays for religious reasons). Also, making sure you apply the policies on keeping conference teams from meeting earlier in the tournament that they have to. Plus, making sure you put teams in the right cities in the 2nd and 2rd rounds. For example, I put Syracuse in Buffalo, even with that 4 seed because the committee sent Syracuse to San Jose a season ago. I don't see them sending the Orange to the West Coast two years in a row. All these things are what I have to consider to make this bracket.

Again, final bracket posted around 4:30pm. Until then, enjoy the final 5 games before the Madness begins!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 15

Tomorrow, my Bracketology journey ends and the breaking down of the brackets process begins. This has been one of the more interesting years for Barnes Bracketology. For once, it is not that we have a dearth of mediocre teams but instead, a lot of teams with some actually deserving cases. Plus, we have a group of about 12-16 teams that could be seeded anywhere from 4-7 seeds. Makes for some longer than usual time to seed and bracket the teams but hey, that's why I get paid the big bucks to do this (I don't get paid anything).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Alright, we are one day away from Selection Sunday. Time to take some chances and make some more bold decisions on LOCKS. Today, that means Pittsburgh, SMU and Stanford. Pitt gets in thanks to a win over UNC in the ACC tourney. SMU did not play yesterday but enough teams lost to clinch their spot. And Stanford lost yesterday but have done enough in and out of conference to feel safe I think.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (42): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Creighton, Iowa State, Syracuse, San Diego State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, UConn, Saint Louis, UMass, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Memphis, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Baylor, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Iowa, SMU, Stanford


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal State Northridge, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: 5 spots are what I think this field comes down too. And to be honest, I really think it's down to 1. I feel good that Saint Joesph's (still alive in A-10 tournament), Arizona State (done), Tennessee (still alive in SEC tournament) and Xavier (done) are in the field. Where they stand in the committee's eyes may be different than mine. As for that final spot, Providence replaces Minnesota, who I thought really needed to beat Wisconsin to help their cause. Providence plays for the Big East tournament title today and with a win could move right into the AUTO territory. This is the first time I've put Providence in this category. Better late than never right?

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: As stated above, with just one spot really up for grabs, this really comes down to which teams below are still alive for that one spot. Those are Providence and NC State. So beware the Wolfpack. The others are out in my mind but maybe not to the committee.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (11): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Minnesota, Missouri, NC State, Arkansas, California, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Wisconsin is my 4th #1 right now but that could switch easily. Michigan is still alive and so is Virginia. I'm not as high on Villanova's chances as others.

2. 67 out of 68 - I really think this field is set with the exception of that final spot. I may have the order/seeding off from the committee but not the field. Providence could make it easy and win today and then, I think it's all set. That is unless...

3. Beware the bid stealers -NC State could complicate things with a win vs. Duke. Also, Georgia is still alive in the SEC tournament and so is St. Bonaventure in the A-10. The Bonnies were a late add 2 years ago so I'm not counting them out to mess up my all-but-finished bracket

I will post a bracket before the games tomorrow and then another around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament that will serve as my FINAL bracket.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

I'm coming to you live from Indianapolis, home of the Big Ten Tournament. There has been plenty of great basketball action here as well as elsewhere in the nation. And like other places, some important games being played here as far as impact on the brackets. Still 3 full days of conference tournament action to go so expect some movement, especially near those final teams in and out. And as I make my final bracket, you may see some tweaks here and there. Again, it's a fluid process and unlike the committee, where I could have 9 people swaying me, I only have my brain...and it's not that sharp.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Went from 35 to 39 in this category. I'm a man of my word so Gonzaga and BYU are both LOCKS just for making the WCC final. Gonzaga won it so they are no doubt it. I also added Dayton and Nebraska. Both have truly played their win into the field. If they are snubbed, I'll be shocked. I'm keeping Iowa in the LOCKS category for now, but I'll be honest. I don't feel good about that. Losing 6 of their last 7 and the resume doesn't really save them.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (39): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Michigan State, UCLA, UMass, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UConn, Texas, Memphis, New Mexico, Kentucky, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Kansas State, George Washington, Baylor, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton, Iowa


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley

AT-LARGE: And then there were 8....spots up for grabs. I still feel good for Pitt and SMU to make the field. Same even can be said for Stanford, Saint Joseph's and Arizona State. After that, I'm not confident. I added in Minnesota and Xavier and took out Arkansas and California, who both exited their conference tournaments too soon I think.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (8): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I think this group is only 14 strong now. Some other bracketologists may have Southern Miss or Clemson in the discussion but I don't. I think they are behind a decent amount. But who knows. That's just my opinion. Georgetown and St. John's are done in my opinion. Needed a couple wins in their conference tournaments and they lost in their first game.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (14): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Arkansas, California, Florida State, NC State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), A-10 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Yep, it still is. Villanova's early loss counts them out I think. Kansas without Embiid surely brings some doubt into making them a 1 seed. So maybe it comes down to if Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke or Virginia win their conference tournament. But keep in mind, the Big Ten and ACC play those games on Sunday, and the selection committee normally locks the field down by then.

2. Still work to do - Plenty of teams in this category and the good thing for them is that they have opportunities to help themselves. Minnesota gets a chance at Wisconsin. Xavier gets Creighton. Providence could advance to the Big East championship with a win over Seton Hall. Missouri takes on Florida and NC State and Florida State are alive in the ACC.

3. Beware the bid stealers - Seton in the Big East. Illinois in the Big Ten. Teams to look out for as we move on.

5. Expect the unexpected - That cliche still applies. As does "Survive and Advance" - what every team is thinking right now.

 

Next post tomorrow!

MB