2014 Barnes Bracketology: FINAL

As expected, I didn't see the need to make any major changes after the first 3 conference championship games and no matter the results in the final 2, I feel like this is my best guess.

BRACKET

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 S-CURVE

1. Florida (SEC)

2. Arizona (Pac-12)

3. Wichita State (MVC)

4. Michigan (Big Ten)

5. Virginia (ACC)

6. Kansas (Big 12)

7. Villanova (Big East)

8. Wisconsin (Big Ten)

9. Louisville (AAC)

10. Duke (ACC)

11. Iowa State (Big 12)

12. Creighton (Big East)

13. Syracuse (ACC)

14. Michigan State (Big Ten)

15. San Diego State (Mountain West)

16. UCLA (Pac-12)

17. Cincinnati (AAC)

18. North Carolina (ACC)

19. Ohio State (Big Ten)

20. UConn (AAC)

21. New Mexico (Mountain West)

22. Saint Louis (A-10)

23. UMass (A-10)

24. Kentucky (SEC)

25. Oklahoma (Big 12)

26. VCU (A-10)

27. Baylor (Big 12)

28. Texas (Big 12)

29. Memphis (AAC)

30. Colorado (Pac-12)

31. Oregon (Pac-12)

32. George Washington (A-10)

33. Kansas State (Big 12)

34. Gonzaga (West Coast)

35. Oklahoma State (Big 12)

36. Nebraska (Big Ten)

37. Pittsburgh (ACC)

38. BYU (West Coast)

39. Saint Joseph's (A-10)

40. Stanford (Pac-12)

41. SMU (AAC)

42. Dayton (A-10)

43. Providence (Big East)

44. Iowa (Big Ten)

45. Arizona State (Pac-12)

46. Tennessee (SEC)

47. Xavier (Big East)

48. Harvard (Ivy)

49. North Dakota State (Summit)

50. Tulsa (CUSA)

51. New Mexico State (WAC)

52. Western Michigan (MAC)

53. Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

54. Manhattan (MAAC)

55. Mercer (Atlantic Sun)

56. Delaware (Colonial)

57. Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)

58. Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley)

59. NC Central (MEAC)

60. American (Patriot)

61. Milwaukee (Horizon)

62. Wofford (Southern)

63. Weber State (Big Sky)

64. Coastal Carolina (Big South)

65. Albany (America East)

66. Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)

67. Texas Southern (SWAC)

68. Cal Poly (Big West)

Okay, here are my Bracketology goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post tomorrow letting you know just how well or terrible I did.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 16

Selection Sunday is here! It's always a bittersweet day for me because it brings an end to this fun journey that is Barnes Bracketology. But at the same time, it means I get a few more hours to do what I want. Oh, and that the Madness is about to begin! I will be making two posts today. This will be mi final full post. The second one will simply be a final bracket, my true seed list and my Barnes Bracketology goals revisited. I expect to post it around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament championship (around 4:30pm).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Well, we could technically only add one more to this group because at minimum, I need 4 AT-LARGE teams since they are headed to Dayton for the First Four. I added 2 teams though (Saint Joseph's and Providence) and moved one out of here (Iowa). Had some many shuffling among the group. Most noteworthy, Michigan is now among my top 4 and is a 1 seed in the bracket. Also, UCLA and Michigan State move into the top 16 and given 4 seeds.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (43): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Michigan, Virginia, Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin, Louisville, Duke, Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse, San Diego State, UCLA, Michigan State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Ohio State, UConn, New Mexico, Saint Louis, UMass, Kentucky, Oklahoma, VCU, Baylor, Texas, Memphis, Colorado, Oregon, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Pittsburgh, BYU, Saint Joseph's, SMU, Stanford, Dayton, Providence

AUTOS: Only one more conference tournament champion to be decided among this group (Sun Belt). Beyond tat, what a group this is. Lot of top seeds did not survive.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Albany, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal Poly, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Tulsa, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: As I stated yesterday, I am confident these teams are in. They just get the good fortune to start their Madness in Dayton.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (4): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Might as well just call this the group of teams that wish they had just one more game to prove their worth. Obviously, the first 4 teams are fine because they are AT-LARGE teams and in the field in my mind. As for the other 6, maybe just one quality win short of cracking the field.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (10): Iowa, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, California, NC State, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs (maybe) - Michigan is my pick for that final top seed. And it may be even if they lose the Big Ten title. Much like the committee, I don't imagine changing that close to when the brackets need to be complete. Virginia has a chance if they beat Duke but I'm not sure it's worth upsetting the whole bracket and then Michigan winning anyways. I estimate the committee has their 4 top seeds set, before the final 5 games tonight even begin.

2. 68 out of 68 - I have never been more confident in my projected field. Besides that Sun Belt title game (which honestly, who cares), I am 99% sure I have the exact 68 teams that the committee will pick for the field. I've never done that. Missed it by one team each of the past 2 years. I just see a clear divide between the final at-large teams and the teams on the bubble. If it's that clear, I think the committee will see it that way too. Last couple years, there has been a bit of a gray area. Not this year.

3. Bracketing is tough - A quick insight for you. This is not easy. So many times, moving one team can upset the entire bracket, which is why I think today's games really won't mean much to the committee. It's just too late. For instance, making sure BYU is playing at sites that only play on Thursday and Saturday is tedious (BYU does not play on Sundays for religious reasons). Also, making sure you apply the policies on keeping conference teams from meeting earlier in the tournament that they have to. Plus, making sure you put teams in the right cities in the 2nd and 2rd rounds. For example, I put Syracuse in Buffalo, even with that 4 seed because the committee sent Syracuse to San Jose a season ago. I don't see them sending the Orange to the West Coast two years in a row. All these things are what I have to consider to make this bracket.

Again, final bracket posted around 4:30pm. Until then, enjoy the final 5 games before the Madness begins!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 15

Tomorrow, my Bracketology journey ends and the breaking down of the brackets process begins. This has been one of the more interesting years for Barnes Bracketology. For once, it is not that we have a dearth of mediocre teams but instead, a lot of teams with some actually deserving cases. Plus, we have a group of about 12-16 teams that could be seeded anywhere from 4-7 seeds. Makes for some longer than usual time to seed and bracket the teams but hey, that's why I get paid the big bucks to do this (I don't get paid anything).

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Alright, we are one day away from Selection Sunday. Time to take some chances and make some more bold decisions on LOCKS. Today, that means Pittsburgh, SMU and Stanford. Pitt gets in thanks to a win over UNC in the ACC tourney. SMU did not play yesterday but enough teams lost to clinch their spot. And Stanford lost yesterday but have done enough in and out of conference to feel safe I think.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (42): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Creighton, Iowa State, Syracuse, San Diego State, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, UConn, Saint Louis, UMass, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Memphis, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Baylor, George Washington, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Iowa, SMU, Stanford


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - Cal State Northridge, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Louisiana Tech, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: 5 spots are what I think this field comes down too. And to be honest, I really think it's down to 1. I feel good that Saint Joesph's (still alive in A-10 tournament), Arizona State (done), Tennessee (still alive in SEC tournament) and Xavier (done) are in the field. Where they stand in the committee's eyes may be different than mine. As for that final spot, Providence replaces Minnesota, who I thought really needed to beat Wisconsin to help their cause. Providence plays for the Big East tournament title today and with a win could move right into the AUTO territory. This is the first time I've put Providence in this category. Better late than never right?

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (5): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: As stated above, with just one spot really up for grabs, this really comes down to which teams below are still alive for that one spot. Those are Providence and NC State. So beware the Wolfpack. The others are out in my mind but maybe not to the committee.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (11): Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, Minnesota, Missouri, NC State, Arkansas, California, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7),  A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (5), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Wisconsin is my 4th #1 right now but that could switch easily. Michigan is still alive and so is Virginia. I'm not as high on Villanova's chances as others.

2. 67 out of 68 - I really think this field is set with the exception of that final spot. I may have the order/seeding off from the committee but not the field. Providence could make it easy and win today and then, I think it's all set. That is unless...

3. Beware the bid stealers -NC State could complicate things with a win vs. Duke. Also, Georgia is still alive in the SEC tournament and so is St. Bonaventure in the A-10. The Bonnies were a late add 2 years ago so I'm not counting them out to mess up my all-but-finished bracket

I will post a bracket before the games tomorrow and then another around halftime of the Big Ten Tournament that will serve as my FINAL bracket.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 14

I'm coming to you live from Indianapolis, home of the Big Ten Tournament. There has been plenty of great basketball action here as well as elsewhere in the nation. And like other places, some important games being played here as far as impact on the brackets. Still 3 full days of conference tournament action to go so expect some movement, especially near those final teams in and out. And as I make my final bracket, you may see some tweaks here and there. Again, it's a fluid process and unlike the committee, where I could have 9 people swaying me, I only have my brain...and it's not that sharp.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Went from 35 to 39 in this category. I'm a man of my word so Gonzaga and BYU are both LOCKS just for making the WCC final. Gonzaga won it so they are no doubt it. I also added Dayton and Nebraska. Both have truly played their win into the field. If they are snubbed, I'll be shocked. I'm keeping Iowa in the LOCKS category for now, but I'll be honest. I don't feel good about that. Losing 6 of their last 7 and the resume doesn't really save them.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (39): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Villanova, Virginia, Duke, Creighton, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Michigan State, UCLA, UMass, Oklahoma, Ohio State, UConn, Texas, Memphis, New Mexico, Kentucky, VCU, Colorado, Oregon, Kansas State, George Washington, Baylor, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, BYU, Dayton, Iowa


AUTOS: Many more changes among this group as the upsets continue to happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Milwaukee, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Manhattan, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - American, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley

AT-LARGE: And then there were 8....spots up for grabs. I still feel good for Pitt and SMU to make the field. Same even can be said for Stanford, Saint Joseph's and Arizona State. After that, I'm not confident. I added in Minnesota and Xavier and took out Arkansas and California, who both exited their conference tournaments too soon I think.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (8): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I think this group is only 14 strong now. Some other bracketologists may have Southern Miss or Clemson in the discussion but I don't. I think they are behind a decent amount. But who knows. That's just my opinion. Georgetown and St. John's are done in my opinion. Needed a couple wins in their conference tournaments and they lost in their first game.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (14): SMU, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Arizona State, Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Arkansas, California, Florida State, NC State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Big Ten (7), A-10 (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - Yep, it still is. Villanova's early loss counts them out I think. Kansas without Embiid surely brings some doubt into making them a 1 seed. So maybe it comes down to if Michigan, Wisconsin, Duke or Virginia win their conference tournament. But keep in mind, the Big Ten and ACC play those games on Sunday, and the selection committee normally locks the field down by then.

2. Still work to do - Plenty of teams in this category and the good thing for them is that they have opportunities to help themselves. Minnesota gets a chance at Wisconsin. Xavier gets Creighton. Providence could advance to the Big East championship with a win over Seton Hall. Missouri takes on Florida and NC State and Florida State are alive in the ACC.

3. Beware the bid stealers - Seton in the Big East. Illinois in the Big Ten. Teams to look out for as we move on.

5. Expect the unexpected - That cliche still applies. As does "Survive and Advance" - what every team is thinking right now.

 

Next post tomorrow!

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch

18 teams. 8 spots. That's how I see the bubble. None of the teams below want to be in this post. That's because each and every one of them know their fate is in the hands of the selection committee right now. That is, if they can't make a big run and win their conference tournament.

For 5 weeks now, I've been projecting the field of 68. Today, I'll let you decide. I will simply put out the resumes of these teams. None of them are overly impressive, hence their inclusion on this list. Again, only 8 spots are up for grabs in my estimation and these are the 18 that are most likely under consideration.

How you decide who is worthy is truly up to you. Some people favor the last 12 games. Others look at top 50 RPI wins. Others will focus on who the teams beat and lost to while others want to see a strong road record. Strength of schedule in and out of conference may be most important or maybe not. It really is subjective, which is what makes it so tough to pick the final teams.

You be the judge. Some things to note:
1. RPI numbers via ESPN.com
2. A key win is a win vs. a team that is either projected in the field or in bubble watch. I will signify if it is a road win, as that carries some weight to it. If they beat them twice, it is signified as (x 2)
3. A key loss is a loss vs. a team under the RPI top 100. Doesn't matter if it's home or away. It's a bad loss.

Here are the teams (in alphabetical order) with records and RPI numbers from Tuesday, before any of the Championship Week action from any of them:

Arkansas (20-11)
RPI: 21-10  SOS: 87  Non-Conference SOS: 192
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 4-8  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: SMU, Minnesota, Kentucky (x 2)
Key Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama

Breakdown: The SOS and NC SOS are not strong. But the wins vs. the RPI top 50 and top 100 are solid compared to the field. The 2 wins vs. Kentucky really help their cause. 

Arizona State (21-10)
RPI: 45  SOS: 55  Non-Conference SOS: 247
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-6  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 9-9
Road W-L: 4-6  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, California (x 2)
Key Losses: Miami (FL)
Breakdown: The key wins are very, very good, which is why I think they are in better shape than most. But that non-conference SOS is laughable. This is the 2nd straight season the Sun Devils have played practically no one outside of the Pac-12

California (19-12)
RPI: 53  SOS: 31  Non-Conference SOS: 97
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-11
Road W-L: 5-8  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: at Stanford, at Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas
Key Losses: USC
Breakdown: Not too long ago they were in great shape with all those quality wins. But the 5-7 record in the last 12 is sure to put questions in the mind of the committee. Not overly impressive vs. the top 50 but the SOS numbers help the cause.

Dayton (22-9)
RPI: 41  SOS: 49  Non-Conference SOS: 89
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 10-6
Road W-L: 8-4  Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Gonzaga, George Washington, UMass, @ Saint Louis, California
Key Losses: Illinois State, Rhode Island, USC
Breakdown: The record is good. The SOS numbers are good. The RPI top 100 record is excellent, as are the road wins and the last 12 games. So why are they here? Because of the losses. Not good at all. They're in better shape than most though overall.

Florida State (18-12)
RPI: 58  SOS: 48  Non-Conference SOS: 103
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-11
Road W-L: 7-6  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: VCU, UMass, at Pittsburgh
Key Losses: Miami (FL)
Breakdown: It reads like an NIT resume with the record vs. the best teams in the nation. And the overall RPI number is not strong. But the road record and SOS helps. The 5-7 record in the last 12 though is sure to leave a bad taste in the mouth of committee members.

Georgetown (17-13)
RPI: 55  SOS: 9  Non-Conference SOS: 27
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 3-8  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Kansas State, VCU, Michigan State, Xavier, Creighton, Providence, St. John's
Key Losses: Northeastern, Seton Hall (x 2)
Breakdown: The curious case of the Hoyas. The SOS numbers are tournament worthy. And the key wins are bountiful. But the overall record of 17-13 could keep them out. 13 losses is a lot for an at-large selection.

Minnesota (18-12)
RPI: 49  SOS: 5  Non-Conference SOS: 29
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 3-8  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida State
Key Losses: Northwestern, Purdue
Breakdown: The SOS are great but their play is of late is anything but. Their road record is no good either. The wins are solid but too many of them came in January and not February and March.

Missouri (21-10)
RPI: 56  SOS: 84  Non-Conference SOS: 150
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-7  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: UCLA, Tennessee, at NC State, Arkansas (x 2)
Key Losses:Vanderbilt, Alabama
Breakdown: Everything here is ho-him. SOS is average. RPI is average. The fact they have only played 5 teams in the RPI top 50 is odd. The wins are good but 6-6 in the last 12 shows they aren't playing their best right now.

Nebraska (19-11)
RPI: 35  SOS: 26  Non-Conference SOS: 87
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 4-10  Last 12 Games: 10-2
Key Wins: Ohio State, Minnesota, at Michigan State, Wisconsin
Key Losses: UAB, Purdue, Penn State
Breakdown: No team is playing better among this group than Nebraska. They were 9-9 and now they are 19-11. Their SOS numbers are quality and the key wins have come in the past few weeks so the committee has to like that. The road record is an eye sore though.

NC State (19-12)
RPI: 63  SOS: 43  Non-Conference SOS: 91
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-9
Road W-L: 6-6  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, Florida State
Key Losses: NC Central, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
Breakdown: The Wolfpack had lots of chance against the best teams. Not sure they have enough wins against them. 3 losses to bad teams surely doesn't help either. 

Pittsburgh (23-8)
RPI: 40  SOS: 83  Non-Conference SOS: 235
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-6  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-8
Road W-L: 10-3  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Stanford, at NC State
Key Losses: None
Breakdown: If you look at the record and RPI, you think they're great. But then you look at who they have beaten and you wonder just how safe Pitt is. The key wins are only against teams on this list. Every loss is against a quality team but does that mean they deserve to be in?

Providence (20-11)
RPI: 54  SOS: 78  Non-Conference SOS: 213
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 7-7  Last 12 Games: 6-6
Key Wins: Creighton, Xavier, Georgetown, at St. John's
Key Losses: Seton Hall
Breakdown: The quality wins are kind of there and the lack of bad losses is good. But that non-conference SOS is not good at all. The road record is impressive compared to others here but 6-6 in the last 12 is not. So yeah, who knows what the committee thinks.

St. John's (20-11)
RPI: 57  SOS: 53  Non-Conference SOS: 138
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 1-7  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Road W-L: 5-6  Last 12 Games: 9-3
Key Wins: Creighton, at Providence, Georgetown
Key Losses: Penn State, DePaul
Breakdown: They are playing well when it matters but the RPI and the wins against the best teams are not there compared to other teams. The non-conference SOS also is not that strong.

St. Joseph's (21-9)
RPI: 48  SOS: 70  Non-Conference SOS: 151
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 8-4  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Dayton (x 2), UMass, VCU
Key Losses: Temple
Breakdown: Almost everything here is solid but not stellar. The most glaring hole in the resume is the non-conference SOS. But all the other numbers look good compared to the other bubble teams. But again, just solid, not stellar.

SMU (23-8)
RPI: 44  SOS: 129  Non-Conference SOS: 301
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-6
Road W-L: 7-7  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: UConn (x 2), Memphis, Cincinnati
Key Losses: South Florida, Temple
Breakdown: SMU has been ranked in the polls for much of the last few weeks which will help their cause. As for these numbers, they aren't overly great. The SOS numbers are hideous. And there aren't a ton of quality wins. But 23-8 looks good as does a sweep of UConn.

Stanford (19-11)
RPI: 43  SOS: 16  Non-Conference SOS: 64
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-11
Road W-L: 7-6  Last 12 Games: 7-5
Key Wins: at UConn, at Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, at California
Key Losses: None
Breakdown: Decent looking numbers all around. The SOS numbers are very good and the road record is as well. The RPI wins could be better but you can't argue against the key wins (3 on the road) and the fact that every loss is to a top-100 team. But 7-5 in last 12 is not really working in their favor.

Tennessee (19-11)
RPI: 46  SOS: 15  Non-Conference SOS: 43
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 5-7  Last 12 Games: 8-4
Key Wins: Xavier, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri
Key Losses: Texas A&M (x 2), Vanderbilt
Breakdown:Can't find any fault in the SOS numbers. But 2-5 against the best teams in the nation is not amazing. The rest of the numbers look okay though getting swept by Texas A&M is going to hurt them.

Xavier (19-11)
RPI: 47  SOS: 38  Non-Conference SOS: 109
Wins vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3  Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-7  Last 12 Games: 5-7
Key Wins: Tennessee, Cincinnati, Creighton, St. John's (x 2), Providence, Georgetown
Key Losses: USC, Seton Hall (x 2)
Breakdown: They have quality wins galore, especially against their bubble brethren. And the SOS numbers aren't awful. What's hurting the Musketeers is their last 12 games and that sweep by Seton Hall. Not sure which Xavier the committee likes/hates more.