2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 10

We're now 5 weeks away until Selection Sunday and I'm already noticing just how tough picking and seeding this year's field is going to be. For one, just look at this past weekend as solid teams lost bad games (some at home) and other teams that I had left for dead rose from the ashes. With a meaningful upset nearly every night, it's hard getting a real read for who these teams are. But this is a process so it's important not to react too much or too little to any one game.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I said after the last post that I would add to this list substantially. Well, I am a man of my word. 6 new teams in the group and for good reason. They have played great basketball this season and have shown no signs of falling apart as we near Selection Sunday. Hopefully none of them make me regret putting them in this group because I've never taken anyone out of this group in my 5 years.

LOCKS (18): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Wisconsin, Butler, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Marquette



AUTOS: Every Sunday, I'll take a look at this group a little closer to see if anything really needs to be changed. I did find a few and have made those changes.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Maybe the biggest change here is that the number of teams getting AT-LARGE bid are down from 36 to 30 as 6 teams graduated to LOCK status. This number will continue to shrink as more teams secure their spot in the field. Only new teams in the field are Virginia (who beat former AT-LARGE member Maryland on their home floor) and Saint Louis, who replaces Arizona State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (30): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE:Obviously, some movement here. But nothing too drastic after the weekend's games. The BUBBLE continues to shrink in size though as teams like UTEP, Florida State, Texas A&M, and Washington lost, taking them out of consideration for now. There's plenty of time to rejoin the discussion but for now, they're out.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (49): Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri, Georgetown, UNLV, Cincinnati, Creighton, Notre Dame, Wichita State, NC State, Oklahoma, VCU, Iowa State, Memphis, Kentucky, Colorado State, Baylor, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss, Virginia, La Salle, Saint Louis, Arizona State, Maryland, Alabama, Villanova, Boise State, St. John's, UMass, Charlotte, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Richmond, BYU, Southern Miss, Arkansas, Wyoming, California, Iowa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 7

What a week of college basketball so far. Ohio State-Michigan. Kansas-TCU. Indiana-Illinois. Washington-UCLA. Last night alone, I saw 4 games that were decided in the final 20 seconds. It's called March Madness, not February Madness! All these fantastic finishes and upsets have made for long nights for this resident bracketologist. But this is what I signed up for.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Not adding any teams to this list just yet. I'll probably add 3-4 teams, maybe more after this weekend. I know there are more than 12 teams that are securely but again, I don't want to take teams out if I don't have to. Again, expect this group to grow somewhat substantially by the next post.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: Not one change in this group.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: Lots of moving around in this category as you might expect. A lot of teams lost while others got some big wins. Teams like Colorado, Illinois and Indiana State all beat ranked teams to help their cause. For Illinois and Indiana State, their wins propelled them from BUBBLE status to AT-LARGE status. Bad loss though by Alabama knocks them out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: A lot of movement up and down among this group. Have to mention that over these 4 days, I found myself overvaluing and undervaluing certain teams. For instance, I took Saint Louis out of the 68-team field (despite winning handily on Wednesday) after looking at their resume closer. I added St. John's to the BUBBLE (and fairly close to getting in) after examining them closer. It's all part of the process. The changes will not normally be that drastic but in this case, it had to be done.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (58): New Mexico, Butler, Kansas State, Marquette, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Creighton, Oregon, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, UCLA, Iowa State, NC State, Minnesota, Missouri, Georgetown, VCU, UNLV, Kentucky, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Colorado State, Memphis, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Illinois, Temple, Akron, Indiana State, Saint Mary's, Maryland, La Salle, Saint Louis, Virginia, St. John's, BYU, Alabama, Villanova, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Arkansas, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio, Northwestern, Washington, Wyoming, Stanford, Florida State, UTEP, UMass, Texas A&M

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), Pac-12 (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), MWC (4), MVC (3), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Michigan is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2013 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 3

The Super Bowl is over. The NBA is barely past the halfway point. The NHL just got going. Seems like the perfect time to start focusing on another great year of Barnes Bracketology! I cannot believe that this is my fifth year doing this. What started as just a fun exercise to see if I was better than Lunardi turned into a full-on obsession with predicting the entire 68-team field.

If you are new to my Bracketology posts, here are my rules. Once I start, I do not look at any prominent Bracketology websites, such as ESPN or CBS Sports. I say prominent because I have friends who try and predict the field as well. I will read those so that way, I can get into some friendly banter with them during the process. But that's it.

I will update this blog every Sunday and Thursday in February. As we near Selection Sunday, the updates will become more frequent. I try to break it all down for you so you know exactly where I stand. I also make sure I follow every rule that the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee does.

Now this is the earliest I've ever started this and trust me, I will never start earlier than this. So expect a lot of movement as I try to get a real feel for these teams and where they should be seeded.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This category is for those teams are getting into the NCAA tournament, even if they do not win their conference tournament. Obviously, this is the group every team wants to be in. The group will look small now because I do not like to put someone in this group and then take them out. But as the weeks go on, teams will be added slowly but surely to give you a clearer picture of teams that are not on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

LOCKS (12): Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Michigan State, Syracuse, Louisville, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: This group is all about teams that need automatic bids to get into the NCAA tournament. For all conferences besides the Ivy League, that means winning the conference tournament. Those tournaments are still weeks away though so for now, these are just educated guesses on who will ultimately win those tournaments. You will see a fair amount of change here, especially since I don't follow these small conferences.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (20): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Charleston Southern , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Northeastern, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC -Louisiana Tech

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that will have to qualify for the tournament as an AT-LARGE but are not good enough to be a LOCK for the tournament field yet. These are in order in how I see the teams right now but this will fluctuate a ton as I get a better feel for these teams. It will nto change as much as we get closer. And don't forget. the last 4 teams in this group will be part of the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (36): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Pretty self-explanatory group here. If you're not a LOCK, you are on the bubble because at any time, it could pop. Now, you will notice some AUTOS are in this group. That just means they are playing well enough that if they do not win their conference tournament, they have a chance to get in as an AT-LARGE. And you will notice that all of the AT-LARGE are in this group and in order. By seeing the last team in the AT-LARGE group and the first team after that, you'll know who is the first team out, and so on.

Again, this group will change an awful lot, especially these next 2 weeks, so don't read TOO much into them.

BUBBLE (56): New Mexico, Butler, Cincinnati, Kansas State, NC State, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Missouri, UCLA, Orgeon, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown, San Diego State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, VCU, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina, Baylor, Colorado State, Memphis, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Temple, Colorado, La Salle, Maryland, Alabama, Illinois, BYU, Akron, Villanova, Charlotte, Indiana State, Washington, Virginia, Southern Miss, Boise State, Ohio Richmond, Stanford, Rutgers, Iowa, Wyoming, Northeastern, California, UTEP, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), Pac-12 (4), MVC (2), WCC (2)  

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Indiana is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals for my final bracket on Selection Sunday:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

Normally, I'll post the games of the week here but not this time. Too many teams in the mix right now.

MB

The 2012 NFL season that was

We're just a few days away until the end of the 2012 NFL season and while many of us are looking forward to the Super Bowl (and the end of the ad nauseum coverage of it on ESPN), I'm gonna take a look back at the season that was and the awful predictions I made before the season began.

MY AFC PREDICTIONS (actual record in parentheses)

AFC EAST
New England ----- 11-5 (12-4)
Buffalo ------------ 9-7 (6-10)
NY Jets ----------- 7-9 (6-10)
Miami ------------- 3-13 (7-9)

AFC NORTH
Baltimore --------- 12-4 (10-6)
Cincinnati --------- 10-6* (10-6)
Pittsburgh --------- 9-7* (8-8)
Cleveland --------- 2-14 (5-11)

AFC SOUTH
Houston ---------- 12-4 (12-4)
Indianapolis ------- 7-9 (11-5)
Tennessee --------- 6-10 (6-10)
Jacksonville ------- 4-12 (2-14)

AFC WEST
Denver ------------ 9-7 (13-3)
Kansas City ------- 8-8 (2-14)
San Diego --------- 8-8 (7-9)
Oakland ----------- 5-11 (4-12)

LOOKING BACK: Not terrible but not great with the predictions. I picked 5 of the 6 playoff teams and correctly picked all 4 division winners. While I saw a vast improvement in the Colts, I did not envision an 11-win season and playoff berth. I really thought the Chiefs and Bills would improve this season and boy was I wrong. I also thought Miami and Cleveland would really struggle with rookie QBs but both were better than expected.

 

MY NFC PREDICTIONS (actual record in parentheses)

 

NFC EAST
Philadelphia -------- 12-4 (4-12)
NY Giants --------- 10-6* (9-7)
Dallas --------------- 8-8 (8-8)
Washington --------- 4-12 (10-6)

NFC NORTH
Green Bay ----------- 13-3 (11-5)
Detroit --------------- 10-6* (4-12)
Chicago -------------- 9-7 (10-6)
Minnesota ------------ 3-13 (10-6)

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta -------------- 12-4 (13-3)
New Orleans -------- 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina ------------- 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay ---------- 6-10 (7-9)

NFC WEST
San Francisco -------- 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle ---------------- 8-8 (11-5)
St. Louis -------------- 6-10 (7-8-1)
Arizona --------------- 5-11 (5-11)

LOOKING BACK: Not so good here. Only 3 of the 4 division winners and missed on both wild card picks. The biggest misses Philly, Washington, Detroit and Minnesota. I thought this was Philly's year. Nope. I thought Detroit has solidified its spot as a contender for the next few years. Nope. I thought Washington still had too many holes even with RG3. Nope. I thought Peterson off his injury and Ponder at QB spelled trouble for Minnesota. Nope. Man, is this humbling. I was a little low on Seattle and a little high on New Orleans but not terribly off.

MY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore over Houston

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlanta over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Baltimore over Atlanta

 

LOOKING BACK: I'm fine with these predictions. 2 of the 4 conference championship game participants and 2 others that for a lot of weeks many thought would reach that point. As for my Super Bowl prediction, you could argue this should be the matchup if not for 1-2 plays in the NFC championship. I have not nailed a Super Bowl winner in a long time so it's cool to have that chance still.

 

MY BLACK MONDAY PREDICTION

 

COACHES FIRED:
Lovie Smith, CHI
Norv Turner, SD
Rex Ryan, NYJ
Pat Shurmur, CLE
Ken Whisenhunt, AZ (in season)
Leslie Frazier, MIN (in season)
Jason Garrett, DAL

LOOKING BACK: Well as you can see, I anticipated quite a few changes after the season. But even 7 wasn't enough. Instead, 8 were fired. Shockingly, not one of those coaches were let go before the season ended though. 4 on my list were actually fired. One of the coaches on my list actually led his team to the playoffs (Sorry Leslie). Rex and Jason probably should be fired but are still alive and kicking. Norv, Lovie and Whiz were easy to call since they were pretty much playoffs or bust. Shurmur was more of a gut feeling. I figured Mularkey would get at least a 2nd year in Jacksonville and I had no clue Philly, Buffalo and KC would be so awful this season or I would have added their coaches on this list as well.

MY YEAR-END AWARDS PREDICTIONS

AWARDS
Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND
Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR
Offensive Player: Michael Vick, PHI
Defensive Player: Patrick Willis, SF
Coach: Andy Reid, PHI
MVP: Ray Rice, BAL

 

LOOKING BACK: Clearly, some of these have no chance of happening. Actually all but two really have a realistic chance. I was simply way too high on Philly this year and while Patrick Willis and Ray Rice had good seasons, they were not award-worthy. So with that said, here are my revisions before the awards are announced Saturday.

AWARDS (revised)

Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND

Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR

Offensive Player: Adrian Peterson, MIN

Defensive Player: J.J. Watt, HOU

Coach: Bruce Arians, IND

MVP: Peyton Manning, DEN

EXPLANATION: I'm sticking with Luck as Offensive Rookie. It's clearly a 3-way race with him, Griffin and Wilson. I'm giving the slightest of edges to Luck though for 2 reasons. One, he did more with less. I mean, the Colts had 2 wins last season and the majority of their team were 1st- or 2nd-year players. That's an astounding number. Yes, he had an easier schedule but so does every #1 pick and they don't do what he did this past season. Really impressive stuff. The other big reason is that he did a lot of it without a consistent running game. While Griffin had Morris and Wilson had Lynch to lean on in games, Luck had his arm. So yes, that meant more picks and a record amount of passing yards for a rookie, but just look at the record (11-5) and you can see just how great he was this season. Wilson or Griffin could win and I'd be fine with it but I'd vote for Luck.

Kuechly led the NFL in tackles...and he's a rookie. Enough said. There are other contenders but I'm giving it to him.

Peterson could be the MVP but I have a feeling the voters will give him this instead. He racked up 2,000+ rush yds on a team that did not hide the fact that they were going to run it and run it a lot.

I'm pretty sure J.J. Watt is a lock for Defensive Player honors. Led the NFL in sacks and probably swats at the line of scrimmage. You really had to gameplan around him all season.

I'm giving the Coach award to Bruce Arians, which I think is allowed. He surely deserves it for leading the Colts to 9 of their 11 wins in the absence of Chuck Pagano. If he is ineligible because he technically is an assistant coach, I would vote for Pete Carroll, simply based on his gutsy decision to start Russell Wilson out of training camp. I'm not sure the media will vote for him (likely Mike Smith or John Fox) but I would go Carroll.

As far as MVP, I would personally pick Peterson but I'm predicting Manning. Media loves the guy. By definition, I know Peterson is more valuable than Peyton is to his team. But what Manning did off his injury is just as impressive. Whoever wins Offensive Player does not win MVP. That much I know.

SUPER BOWL XLVII BREAKDOWN/PREDICTION

Alright, now to the game on Super Sunday. As you saw earlier, I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl back in August. But that pick was more based on that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the offense improving greatly. We saw flashes of that when the season began when they put up 44 on the Bengals in Week 1 and 31 against the Pats in Week 3. But the offense grew inconsistent near the end of the regular season and my confidence in them wavered. So much so, I picked the Colts to beat them in the wild card round. But after 3 impressive playoff wins, the Ravens are back to the team I thought they would be.

The 49ers I picked to go 11-5 when the season began are not the 49ers that went 11-4-1. That's because of Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers are really good with Smith at QB. They are great with Kaepernick. I was a bit leery of his passing ability initially but those doubts are gone. The guy has a cannon for an arm but can put some touch on it as well. He has been more accurate than I ever thought he would be and obviously, his ability to get outside the pocket and make things happen is something Smith could not bring, or at least not to the degree Kaepernick does. The defense is still one of the best in the NFL and besides a few lapses, has proven to be one that can win a game.

This is one of the toughest Super Bowls to pick. I don't think there is a clear cut winner. Both have great defenses. Both have dynamic offenses. Both have a Harbugh on the sidelines. In the end, I'm going with Baltimore because of their performance vs. New England. It was so dominant that it convinced me this team just has everything figured out and is peaking at the right time. Yes, the 49ers won on the road last week but it was not impressive. The Falcons threw all over the Niners defense and were just 1-2 plays away from winning the game. Yes, you could make the argument that the Ravens were one deep pass away from not even getting to the AFC championship too. Ugh, see....I'm gonna talk myself out of my own prediction!

FINAL PREDICTION: BALTIMORE 24, SAN FRANCISCO 21

2012 NFL Predictions

Yep, that time of year where I put all my pride on the line and give a run at predicting the NFL season to come. I don't think I've picked a Super Bowl champion in the last 5 years or so and I expect nothing different this year.

I'm actually somewhat surprised by my pick because they mirror last year a bit too much. But maybe this is the year that the teams that excelled a year ago just keep it rolling.

As usual, I add in some fun stuff at the end, including coaches who I think will be fired this seasons and teams on the rise and decline.

AFC EAST
New England ----- 11-5
Buffalo ------------ 9-7
NY Jets ----------- 7-9
Miami ------------- 3-13

AFC NORTH
Baltimore --------- 12-4
Cincinnati --------- 10-6*
Pittsburgh --------- 9-7*
Cleveland --------- 2-14

AFC SOUTH
Houston ---------- 12-4
Indianapolis ------- 7-9
Tennessee --------- 6-10
Jacksonville ------- 4-12

AFC WEST
Denver ------------ 9-7
Kansas City ------- 8-8
San Diego --------- 8-8
Oakland ----------- 5-11

NFC EAST
Philadelphia -------- 12-4
NY Giants --------- 10-6*
Dallas --------------- 8-8
Washington --------- 4-12

NFC NORTH
Green Bay ----------- 13-3
Detroit --------------- 10-6*
Chicago -------------- 9-7
Minnesota ------------ 3-13

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta -------------- 12-4
New Orleans -------- 10-6
Carolina ------------- 7-9
Tampa Bay ---------- 6-10

NFC WEST
San Francisco -------- 11-5
Seattle ---------------- 8-8
St. Louis -------------- 6-10
Arizona --------------- 5-11

* = Wild Card team

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore over Houston

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlanta over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Baltimore over Atlanta

AWARDS
Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND
Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR
Offensive Player: Michael Vick, PHI
Defensive Player: Patrick Willis, SF
Coach: Andy Reid, PHI
MVP: Ray Rice, BAL

COACHES FIRED:
Lovie Smith, CHI
Norv Turner, SD
Rex Ryan, NYJ
Pat Shurmur, CLE
Ken Whisenhunt, AZ (in season)
Leslie Frazier, MIN (in season)
Jason Garrett, DAL

Teams on the rise:
BUF, CIN, IND, KC, CAR, SEA, STL

Teams on the decline:
NYJ, PIT, SD, ARZ