Wednesday, September 10, 2008

College Football: Week 3

Alright football fans, Week 3 is upon us and what a week it should be. A lot of ranked teams playing some big games. A lot of unranked teams playing some games in hopes of gaining some respect among the masses. And after watching my Bobcats give my Buckeyes a scare, the Bucks now have to focus in on what may be their biggest game of the year. Oh happy day.

As far as my picks last week, the record was better at 11-4, but considering the games of last week, that's not very good. ECU burned me once again, Georgia Tech took down BC, South Carolina choked and Cincy is not the team I thought they were.

As far as this week's top 15 games, all 4 teams I cover for the 2nd week in a row are actually in the Top 15 games. Texas vs. Arkansas was going to make it but Hurricane Ike decided that game isn't worth playing this week. So enough intro, on to the picks of Week 3!

BEST 15 GAMES (Last week: 11-4, Season: 19-11)

GAME OF THE WEEK:
1. #5 Ohio State vs. #1 USC - Well, there's no argument here. If you don't believe me, just look at ESPN every hour. Just like when OSU and Texas hooked up a few years ago, the coverage has been as overdone as Tom Brady's injury (though that's not over yet either). As much as I want to be objective here, it's tough. I have this sickening feeling that this Buckeye team isn;t ready for the Trojans yet. I believe they are the better team but not right now. Beanie is not 100%. Boeckman is not any kind of groove yet. They have not had a real test on defense yet and Pryor has not played enough for me to feel comfortable with him under center during a minute of this game. But in the end, it will come down (as always) to the Ohio State defense. The same defense that choked against Florida. The same defense that struggled against Juice and Illinois. And the same defense that couldn't handle LSU in the second quarter. There is no doubt USC is good on offense but if OSU can hold them to 21 points or less, I like their chances. OSU's offense will score on the USC defense. There's no doubt about that. Beanie healthy adds a touchdown alone in my mind. I look for Pryor to play a lot just to keep the Trojan D confused and to open up the pass when Boeckman gets in. In the end, I really think the week off will actually hurt USC. They almost hafta thinkg about playing OSU too long whereas the Bucks got a week to play a game against an OU team that gave OSU their first taste of having to play to win. With all that in mind, I'm taking the Buckeyes. OHIO STATE 24-21. And I hope I'm not wrong.

REST OF THE BEST
2. #13 Kansas @ #19 South Florida (FRI) - Well, this game reallly intrigues me. It's a matchup of two ranked teams with legitimate shots of sneaking into the BCS championship game if the chips fall right, kinda how they almost did for Missouri and WVU last year. It also boasts a matchup of two quarterbacks that are fun to watch. Todd Reesing of Kansas and Matt Grothe of USF. If you haven't seen either of these two play, make sure you tune in. Reesing is just 5'11 (prolly 5'9) but knows where his receivers are and great pocket awareness. Grothe is the kind of QB who knows what he can't do with his arm, he does with his legs. So far, he's completed 29 passes but also rushed 24 times. Plus, the coaching matchup of the round of mound Mark Mangino versus the energetic Jim Leavitt is one to watch on the sideline. The only downside of this game: it's on Friday, which is high school football night for me and many others that wanna watch every minute of this game. USF's performance against UCF shook me a bit but in the end, I think it motivates them more. Gimme South Florida in a close one. This one is a toss-up.

3. #10 Wisconsin @ #21 Fresno State - Another games that intrigues me. Again, week 3 is more than just OSU-USC. Here again is a matchup of two teams in which the loser may lose more than just a Week 3 game. For Wisconsin, it's a BCS title game (if they beat OSU down the road). For Fresno St., it could be a BCS game (if they run the table). The Bulldogs were qutie impressive in their first game at Rutgers, dominiating from start to finish. Their sophomore running back, Ryan Matthews, is a stud. 26 car, 163 yds and 3 TD against the Scarlet Knights put him on my Heisman list for 2009. Meanwhile, 'Sconsin has played a couple cupcakes in Marshall and Akron and looked solid. Their running back, P.J. Hill has already rushed for 267 yds and 4 TD. Now, as much as I want the Big ten to grab a win in a game like this, they won't. Fresno State is on a mission this year and the late start of the game (10:30 ET) doesn't make me feel better about the Badgers' chances either. FRESNO STATE wins this one and continues their trek to 12-0.

4. #2 Georgia @ South Carolina - It's been a crazy two weeks for the Gamecocks. They win in Week 1 and look awful on offense. In Week 2, they lose and look awful on offense and defense. They get a QB injured and their best WR is injured and out for this week's game. There are just no positives here. Meanwhile, Georgia has been in cruise control, romping opponents and showing they are one of the best in the land. Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford have turned this offense into a lethal weapon. By air or ground, they will score. And the defense has been strong so far despite a few key injuries. Now, last year, this game was in Athens and (somehow) the Gamecocks won 16-12, giving the Bulldogs a loss that would later prevent them from the title game. So now you have a Georgia team that is better and wants revenge versus a South Carolina squad that is struggling, will play two medicore quarterbacks in the game, and is just hoping to salvage this season. Sorry Spurrier, the upset ain't coming this year. The Bulldogs wins handily in Columbia and takes the top spot from USC (pending my prediction from that games comes through). GEORGIA 38-10.

5. Michigan @ Notre Dame - It is really odd to not put a ranking in front of at leats one of these teams. But it's a sad time for both schools. Both are rebuilding their traditions behind coaches that have the brains to do it but not the players. When Weis had Quinn, Samardzija, Stovall, Walker, Fasano and Zbikowski, you saw what Weis could do with a talented team. Now, he has ????. It's rough. The same goes for Michigan. Gone are the days of Hart, Henne, Long and Manningham. Now, it's ????. This is a game to prove to a nationwide audience that their teams have some fight and some promise. Games like this are ones that can make or break for recruits too. Get blown out on national television and all the sudden, that other school promising illegal perks looks better. I have never liked either of these teams but after every game of both teams, I feel fairly confident that NOTRE DAME will pull out the victory.

6. Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech - Well now, here is a game that looked terrible last week but all the sudden has folks in ACC land buzzing (pun intended). The new look Yellow Jackets are 2-0 after taking down BC on the road 19-16. The defense nabbed a safety and the offense scored in the 4th to overcome a 16-10 deficit. And now, GT is looking to upset another top-tier ACC team. Remember, this is a GT team that SI picked to only have 3 wins for the entire year. Now, they are possible spoilers in a conference that flat out stinks. Speaking of stinking, that was Virginia Tech against East Carolina in Week 1, hence why they are unranked. With Sean Glennon at QB, I still think they are worse off but they should have enough to hold off the Yellow Jackets. VIRGINIA TECH by 10 or less.

7. UCLA @ #18 BYU - Talk about a game that is being underrated. After UCLA knocked off Tennessee, one has to think the Bruins have a shot in Utah. Rick Neuheisel has given this team a much-needed kick in the butt and man, it showed against Rocky Top. I still can't name one player from the team without heading to a sports website but I still can see them celebrating that win. On the other side, I can't name a BYU player either but I can see them ce;ebrating after that "controversial" win over Washington. That final play aside, BYU did not look good. Washington is not a good team and yet, they were one extra point away from OT. As much as I would love to see UCLA pull off another upset to start their year, I am gonna be smart here and take BYU, the most sober school in America.

8. #9 Auburn @ Mississippi State - Yes, I know MSU lost to La. Tech in Week 1. It was embarrassing for Sylvester Croom and the Bulldogs and for the SEC. But after a 34-10 win over SE Louisiana, they seem to be back on track. The Bulldogs are one of those teams that if they play their best football in front of their home fans, they will give the Tigers a run for their money. It's the SEC people. Any given Saturday, any SEC team can beat another because the talent in the conference is that wide spread. I'm gonna pick AUBURN but if Mississippi State wins, I get to say "I told ya so".

9. Rutgers @ North Carolina (THU) - It's not the most thrilling Thursday night game in the world. In fact, I wish it would switch places with the Kansas-USF matchup. But we're stuck with this matchup of a Scarlet Knight team that was man-handled at home by Fresno State and a North Carolina team that barely beat McNeese State. I really don't wanna break this one down too much. Heck, I don't even really wanna watch it. My pick is NORTH CAROLINA and I pity all of you that watch this game.

10. Bowling Green @ Boise State - Well, I gave a lot of love to BG after their Week 1 win over Pittsburgh. Then, they lose to Minnesota and make me feel like an idiot, though I'm used to that. Now BG heads west to the blue field in Boise and well, I don't like their chances. Boise State is a solid squad once again. Fiesta Bowl proposal guy Ian Johnson is STILL there and should enjoy the holes his o-Line provide for him against a BG defense that allowed 42 points and 397 total yards, 164 of which were on the ground. BOISE STATE wins and BG returns to MAC play where they can compete again.

11. NC State @ Clemson - Well, Clemson may be back after beating The Citadel. The thumping they put on them may be just what the Tigers needed to build the confidence they lost in that opening week game vs. Alabama. Cullen Harper looked great throwing the ball. C.J. Spiller and James Davis showed off the thunder and lightning that many feel will carry the offense. And the defense proved it can stop an offense, even if it was just The Citadel. Now, NC State is up and well, they aren't any good. But this is Clemson. They never start seasons well so don't count out the Wolfpack. I'm going with CLEMSON but wouldn't be surprised to see another Tommy tumble.

12. #3 Oklahoma @ Washington - Well, give credit to Washington for sticking with BYU last week. A ranked team rolled into Husky Stadium and the Huskies wouldn't let them just dominate the game. That may not be the case though this week. Oklahoma is good. Really good. Their offense is clicking and the defense is showing signs of being really good when Big 12 play rolls around. Even though the offense will score 40-50 points in this game, the onus should be on the defense to challenge themselves to give up minimal points to playmaking QB Jake Locker and the Husky offense. Locker reminds a lot of Chase Daniel, a team the Sooners may face in the Big 12 title game. OKLAHOMA cruises.

13. Washington State @ Baylor - This is the game I added once Arkansas and Texas was moved due to Hurricane Ike. Why did I add it? Because it's a game between two teams that stink now but with new coaches, hope to build the program to something respectable in tough conferences. Baylor is led by Art Briles, coming over from Univ. of Houston. They lost bad to Wake Forest to open the year but crushed NW State 51-6 in Week 2. Meanwhile, Washington State is trying to get back to the Ryan Leaf days and so far, NOT so good. 39-13 loss to OK State and a 6603 loss to Cal to start Pac-10 play. That's not good. Both teams will wallow in conference play but in terms of this game, I'm going with the home team. BAYLOR wins game number two and enjoys their only winning record of the season.

14. #16 Oregon @ Purdue - Last year, Oregon traveled to Michigan and beat a Michigan team still deflated from its loss to Appaclachian State. This year, the Ducks travel to another Big 10 school in Purdue. Oregon so far has the best offense in the land, which is easy when you play a team like Utah State and put up 66 points. In West Lafayette, the offense ain't too bad either. Curtis Painter is a QB with an accurate arm and Purdue is known for stepping it up when playing in front of the home fans. It's only game 2 for the Boilers so there's not too much for me to base this pick on but when it comes to games like this where a West Coast team travels east, I have to be sold on the West Coast team. Well, I'm not sold on Oregon and Purdue has an experienced QB that knows big games. So in my APPY pick of the week, I'm taking PURDUE to pull off the upset and make the Big Ten proud.

15. Central Michigan @ Ohio - Oh you know I didn't forget about this game. This is a huge game for OU. This OU team is not as good as last year. The running game is nowhere near as good and the defense is not as strong in the secondary. But against a team liek Central Michigan, it's gonna be a game for the linebackers. That's because CMU QB Dan LeFevour is a dual threat, and that puts a lot of pressure on the linebackers. The D-Line can do their part to contain him and the secondary can do their part in covering receivers and making him scramble but it will be up to the linebackers to get those tackles once he runs...and he will run. Now, Georgia's D shut down LeFevour, hassling him with different blitz packages. OU must do the same too. Honestly, if they play like they did against Pryor last week, OU should be fine against LeFevour. Plus, OU has been craving a win over this team for awhile and with it being the first home game of the year during the first school week of the year and OSU not playing until 8pm, Peden should be somewhat packed and hopefully, a little bit rowdy. No UGA but still making it a bit tougher to play in. With all that in mind, gimme the Bobcats to start the MAC season the right way. OHIO 23-20

Alright, those are the picks. As usual, you cna make comments below. I will recap all the action late Saturday night. That's of course if my I don't have a heart attack during the OSU-USC game, since the Buckeyes like doing that.

2 comments:

  1. Here's where I differ... ready:

    I believe Kansas will trounce USF, as I don't think last week is indicative of how good either team really is.

    Wisconsin will get the job done over Fresno St. Yes, FSU is a good team, and yes they are playing at home, but Wisconsin will not be intimidated.

    Michigan will beat Notre Dame because Notre Dame has hardly improved from last year. I do not see Jimmy C. moving the ball up and down the field against the UM d.

    UCLA over a pedestrian BYU squad that nearly got beat by a pedestrian Washington squad. Nuehesial (sp?) will have his gang ready for the sequel.

    Oregon romps Purdue, as Purdue has little defense for a high powered Oregon attack. Purdue will score some points, but it will be in a shootout they don't win.

    Finally, CMU beats Ohio. Ohio will be with their backup quarterback and their little-to-none running game. I doubt they can chill LaFevour.Yes, I said it.

    If you're playing at home that's:
    Kansas > USF
    Wisconsin > Fresno St.
    Michigan > Notre Dame
    UCLA > BYU
    Oregon > Purdue
    CMU > Ohio

    The rest I agree with.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Just a couple comments about the Bobcats.

    1. Donte Harden has emerged as our running back after carrying 11 times for 63 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown run against OSU. Also, he clearly has a burst in him after his 100-yard touchdown return of a kick off at Wyoming.

    2. After watching both of them practice and play, if it's not true yet, Boo Jackson will at least be a better quarterback than Theo Scott in the near future. Boo outplayed Theo dramatically in the green and white game while still learning the offense, and let's be honest. His elusiveness kept the Bobcats in the game last week. If Brad Bower were back there, the Buckeyes would've had 10 sacks, the offense would've been stacking up 3-and-outs, and the defense would've been giving up tons of points because they were so tired. Stats don't always tell the story people. Boo's production was beyond stats last week.

    3. I've seen enough of our defense now to know that I was very wrong, and that this is a better defense than the Bobcats had last year. Think what you want about who they had last year, but can you really say they had a decent defense when they went 6-6 and gave up so many points? The team this year has only given up one pass of more than 30 yards in the first two games, and that was against Wyoming. They played very well last week, and they're trying to prove a point.

    4. After two games, in my opinion, the only way this team is weaker than last year's team is at running back. I think everything else is stronger.

    5. Go Bobcats!!

    ReplyDelete

 
All views, opinions and statements expressed on this website and related blog are exclusively those of Matt Barnes, who assumes full responsibility for all content opinions, statements and other content present herein.