2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

Another fun weekend of basketball. But that's not the biggest story. It's the reveal of the top 16 seeds as of now. Saturday at 12:30pm, the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee revealed those top teams and gave us a bit of a glimpse into what they think of teams now.

My reaction to their work was a favorable one. Probably because I had the exact same 1-3 seeds as they did. We differed on some 4 seeds but that's fine. All the ones I disagreed with were 5 seeds on my bracket. It's good to see that I am on the right track and thinking the same way as the committee with a month to go. Also, nice to see a bit of transparency. I know a lot will change before Selection Sunday but it was cool to see what they think of these teams so far.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 teams to this list and deservedly so. Creighton has avoided the major pitfalls since losing one of their best players for the season. They have done enough work to claim this spot. Same goes for SMU, who cemented their spot with a home win vs. Cincinnati, snapping their long win streak. Finally, added Dayton who went on the road and beat a good Rhode Island squad.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (26): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame, Maryland, Creighton, South Carolina, SMU, Xavier, Dayton


AUTOS: Made a few changes to this group after a week of play. 

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Boise State, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Furman, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Arkansas State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: This group didn't do a ton of shuffling. Of course, it lost a few to the LOCKS category. Big move came from Northwestern, who took down Wisconsin and is in much better shape now. Indiana dropped out and Michigan is in after the Wolverines took down the Hoosiers in Bloomington. Michigan State also reappears for now while TCU drops out. Reminder, this is a very fluid group, especially in February.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Michigan, Seton Hall

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Because I want to keep track of more teams as we move a month until Selection Sunday, I added some teams to the end of this group. By no means am I confident that any of those teams will play their way into the field but I wanted to monitor them for a bit and see what happens.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (37): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Kansas State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Michigan, Seton Hall, TCU, Illinois State, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Marquette, Georgia, Clemson, Houston, Auburn, Ohio State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Ole Miss, Providence, Nevada

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 11

First off, apologies for the one-day delay in posting. Two of my best friends had a baby and time that would have been spent posting instead were spent being around my "niece". It was time well spent.

As for the basketball, this is an exciting day for bracketologists everywhere because for the first time, the selection committee will release their top 16 seeds as of right now, 27 days before Selection Sunday. This will give us a rare look at how they rank the teams and give me a chance to compare and contrast. Now, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday so in all honesty, this glimpse doesn't really matter in the long run but it does give fans and bracketologists like myself something to talk and think about for the next 4 weeks.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Did not add one name to this group but did some minor shuffling. Nothing too crazy though.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (23): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Cincinnati, UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina


AUTOS: No changes here. Will re-visit this group after the weekend to make any changes

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - VCU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Plenty of shuffling here, and a few additions/subtractions. TCU, Seton Hall and Miami (FL) all enter the group after good wins that helped their resumes. The top 3 teams in this group are incredibly close to moving into the LOCKS category. Dayton's win at Rhode Island on Friday may actually be enough but I want to see how the rest of the weekend's games wrap up.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, California, Iowa State, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Northwestern, Tennessee, Wake Forest, TCU, Kansas State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Indiana

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The addition of 3 teams in the group above means 3 teams have fallen out of the field. Those teams would be Michigan State, Marquette and Clemson. Plenty of time to get back in the mix but for now, back to just on the BUBBLE. Added Ohio State to this mix, though without a win at Maryland, may find themselves right back off of it. Georgetown and Texas Tech have been taken off this list as well for now.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Northwestern, Tennessee, Wake Forest, TCU, Kansas State, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan State, Alabama, Michigan, Illinois State, Marquette, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Ohio State, Houston, Auburn, Memphis, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Monday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 6

Here we are, once again. The start of another season of Barnes Bracketology. It's amazing to think this is my 8th year doing this. All born out of boredom and curiosity in Augusta, GA. It has truly become a labor of love, with the emphasis on the labor. This is not easy by any means and seems to get tougher every year as the criteria for how to get into the tournament seems to change slightly, making it harder to judge what the actual selection committee will do.

Last year was a bit of a down year for me in terms of accuracy, getting 65 of 68 teams. I would argue though the teams that were left out deserved to be in to this day. But that's the beauty of this process. There technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.

This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is all about teams that are making the tournament, no matter what. If you're in this group, you're feeling really good. Only a couple of times have I had to take a team out of this group and it always pains me to do so. With that in mind, I tend to be cautious putting teams in here too early.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (23): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Butler, Maryland, Notre Dame, Xavier, South Carolina


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - VCU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: This is the group that is always the toughest to come up with. The group of teams that are getting in but by no means is it a guarantee.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And now the dreaded bubble. If you know college basketball, you know what this means. You are not safe. This group will grow and shrink frequently as teams get on hot streaks and cold streaks. It's not the best list to be on but if you fall off of it, you're in real trouble. Every team in the AT-LARGE category is in this group because they aren't a LOCK and you could always find a team from the AUTO group in here too because if they lose their conference tournament, they would need to be in a good position in this group.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette, TCU, Illinois Sate, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Michigan, Houston, Georgia, Georgetown, Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Memphis

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

So this is the end. My final bracket. My goals for my racket compared to the committee's is this:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

AND REMEMBER: There is no right/wrong in this exercise. This is all subjective. Yes, I would love to get all 68 teams but I am trying to predict the unpredictable, which is what 10 people I have never met are thinking. Hope you enjoyed this!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added UConn. They deserved it. Some decent shuffling as well with UNC jumping to the second spot, Villanova dropping to sixth, and Saint Joseph's and Seton Hall moving up some slots.

LOCKS (38): Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, West Virginia, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Texas A+M, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Duke, California, Iowa State, Texas, Arizona, Seton Hall, Baylor, Notre Dame, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, St. Bonaventure, UConn, South Carolina, Wichita State

AUTOS: Changes only coming to teams that won their tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - Fresno State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - Cal St. Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: This was tough.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Again, this was tough.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (12): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Valparaiso, Tulsa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! What a Friday of college basketball. Fantastic finishes galore and numerous overtime games. And this is just an appetizer to the NCAA Tournament. I have a little bit of movement in the bracket. Tomorrow, I'll post my final projected bracket around 3-4pm. For now, here's the penultimate post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No additions but the biggest move is that north Carolina jumps to the 4 spot, meaning they are the 4th number one seed. Villanova has locked their one seed up. Virginia and North Carolina will lock up the third one with a win. The fourth could still be up for grabs but I haven't made up my mind yet. I think the top 8 teams are locked into  one and two seeds. The only team that could spoil that is West Virginia.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Xavier, Utah, Kentucky, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Texas, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Seton Hall, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome UConn to the group. It's amazing to think a half-court shot at the buzzer could be what gets them in the field. But I think it does. Vanderbilt drops out after hanging on by a thread.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed even more. Tulsa, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Ohio State and Houston have all hit the end of the road in terms of realistic chances of making the tournament. LSU needed a lot of help that they did not get so they need to win the SEC Tournament to make the Big Dance so they're gone as well. Michigan makes a good sized jump thanks to their buzzer-beating win vs. Indiana and is right on the verge of getting in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: UConn, Southern

GOING OUT: Vanderbilt, Texas Southern

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Purdue - Another must-win for Michigan. If they do, good chance they sneak into the field.
LSU vs. Texas A+M - LSU needs all the wins it can get.
UConn vs. Temple - UConn can earn their spot in the field with this win. I think Temple is pretty safe even with a loss.
Georgia vs. Kentucky - Georgia also needs to just keep on winning.
Michigan State vs. Maryland - MSU might be able to sneak onto that one seed line. But they have to win the B1G tournament. I'm not convinced the committee will wait though until that game to make the decision on those top seeds.
Davidson vs. VCU - This is big for two reasons. If VCU wins, they all but lock up their spot. But if Davidson wins, they could become a bid-stealer with an A-10 Tournament championship.
Tulane vs. Memphis - Bid-stealer alert! Winner here gets a chance in the American Tournament championship.
West Virginia vs. Kansas - West Virginia could possibly move up to a two seed with this Big 12 championship game victory.
Fresno State vs. San Diego State - San Diego State is on the bubble if they lose, I would argue they are probably out,
Virginia vs. North Carolina - Winner clinches a one seed, though both may have one when all is said and done.

Utah vs. Oregon - Still a slim chance Oregon gets up to a one seed. Just unsure if the committee will put a Pac-12 team on the top line.

Next (and FINAL) update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB