Here we are, once again. The start of another season of Barnes Bracketology. It's amazing to think this is my 8th year doing this. All born out of boredom and curiosity in Augusta, GA. It has truly become a labor of love, with the emphasis on the labor. This is not easy by any means and seems to get tougher every year as the criteria for how to get into the tournament seems to change slightly, making it harder to judge what the actual selection committee will do.
Last year was a bit of a down year for me in terms of accuracy, getting 65 of 68 teams. I would argue though the teams that were left out deserved to be in to this day. But that's the beauty of this process. There technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.
This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.
Last year was a bit of a down year for me in terms of accuracy, getting 65 of 68 teams. I would argue though the teams that were left out deserved to be in to this day. But that's the beauty of this process. There technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.
This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.
MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)
LOCKS: This group is all about teams that are making the tournament, no matter what. If you're in this group, you're feeling really good. Only a couple of times have I had to take a team out of this group and it always pains me to do so. With that in mind, I tend to be cautious putting teams in here too early.
These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.
These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.
LOCKS (23): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Butler, Maryland, Notre Dame, Xavier, South Carolina
AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.
Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold
AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - VCU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State
AT-LARGE: This is the group that is always the toughest to come up with. The group of teams that are getting in but by no means is it a guarantee.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.
AT-LARGE (21): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana, MarquetteBUBBLE WATCH
BUBBLE: And now the dreaded bubble. If you know college basketball, you know what this means. You are not safe. This group will grow and shrink frequently as teams get on hot streaks and cold streaks. It's not the best list to be on but if you fall off of it, you're in real trouble. Every team in the AT-LARGE category is in this group because they aren't a LOCK and you could always find a team from the AUTO group in here too because if they lose their conference tournament, they would need to be in a good position in this group.
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State,
Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake
Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson,
Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette, TCU, Illinois Sate, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Michigan, Houston, Georgia, Georgetown, Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Memphis
These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.
BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State,
Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake
Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson,
Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette, TCU, Illinois Sate, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Michigan, Houston, Georgia, Georgetown, Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Memphis
SEEDING
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)
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