2016 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch Special

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. It's splitting hairs to decide who should get in the field.

It all depends on which metric you like most. Maybe it's RPI. Maybe it's strength of schedule. Maybe it's recent performance or quality wins vs. bad losses. So many different ways to slice it.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers (as of 3/7) in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. I included 3 teams that I think will win their conference tournaments but in case they don't, they will be very much in the bubble mix.

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I re-evaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

Less than a week to go until the Madness, though you could argue it's already begun. The regular season is over for every conference and for some, the conference tournament has ended as well. We have already seen a slew of upsets and our first bid-stealer (Northern Iowa!) that will really affect the make-up of the field. It'll be a busy week of Barnes Bracketology so buckle up!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With a week to go, it's time to graduate more teams who are probably in good shape, even if they fall early in their conference tournaments. So welcome USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure and South Carolina. Oregon State is the only one I am 100% on but the others I feel about 80% on and that's enough with 6 days to go.

LOCKS (36): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Wichita State, USC, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina

AUTOS: Lots of changes here as conference tournament results have been inputted. We have our first four teams in bold, who are guaranteed their spot in the field. Also, congrats to Northern Iowa for likely stealing an AT-LARGE bid from someone for winning the Missouri Valley tournament.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: So in my estimation, I think there are just 7 spots really up for grabs right now. That's about normal for this time. Every one of these teams is still very much in trouble because of bid stealers and BUBBLE teams who could make a late charge. UConn and Florida dropped out just due to the process while Cincinnati jumps in thanks to a huge win vs. SMU.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (7): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, VCU, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For the teams near the end of this list, might as well figure they need to win their conference tournament to really have a legitimate shot. For the others, it could take just a couple wins and some help. This is a fluid situation, especially with the American Athletic Conference teams, who are all very similarly mediocre.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (24): Butler, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, VCU, Tulsa, UConn, Temple, San Diego State, Monmouth, Valparaiso, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan, Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, George Washington, LSU, BYU, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (2)

COMING IN: Cincinnati, UNC-Asheville, Austin Peay, Northern Iowa

GOING OUT: Florida, UConn, Winthrop, UT-Martin

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed


Next update will be the annual bubble special, where I will lay out the numbers for the most relevant bubble teams so you can make your own decisions of who should be in and who should be out.. And starting after Tuesday's games, we're going daily until Selection Sunday! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 5

The madness has already begun...well, kind of. A few of the conference tournaments have started and chaos has ensued. Two of the lowest seeds are playing for a championship, including Stetson in the Atlantic Sun, though they are ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to low APR scores. That means if they win, the NCAA bid will go to the regular season champ North Florida, who Stetson beat! Confused? Don't be. It's March.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added a couple of more teams in this group. Wichita State's regular season is over and today, they play in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Tournament. Win or lose that tourney, I think they're in. Seton Hall actually lost this week and yet, they locked up their spot. They've done enough.

LOCKS (32): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan State, Xavier, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, Maryland, West Virginia, Indiana, Duke, Iowa State, Purdue, Texas, California, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's, Wichita State, Seton Hall

AUTOS: Another change to the American Athletic Conference champ. Seriously, this conference tournament is going to be ridiculous. Also, some other changes as the top seeds in confernece tournaments have lost so clearly, they aren't winning the auto bids. This group will be a revolving door of teams until the tournament begins as upsets happen in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Tenn-Martin, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: With just 8 days until Selection Sunday, not a big fan of having this many in this group but such is life. The teams near the top are probably in good shape but I'm being overly cautious. Those near the end of this group though not only need to win this weekend but probably should be thinking about winning a couple of games in their conference tournament to feel safer. Alabama drops out after a bad home loss.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (12): USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Syracuse, VCU, Butler, Florida, Tulsa, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: No teams added but Georgia Tech dropped out as they lost during the week. Not too much shuffling in the group either. Big win for Houston who beat fellow bubble team Cincinnati. Winning against a fellow bubble team at this time of the year goes a long way in the eyes of the committee.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (26): USC, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Syracuse, VCU, Butler, Temple, Florida, Tulsa, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Alabama, San Diego State, Monmouth, Cincinnati, Houston, Gonzaga, George Washington, LSU, BYU, Florida State, Ohio State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), American (3)

COMING IN: Temple, Florida Gulf Coast, UT-Martin, Lehigh

GOING OUT: Alabama, North Florida, Belmont, Bucknell

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

SATURDAY
Vanderbilt at Texas A+M - Win by Vandy locks up their spot in the field.
Ohio State at Michigan State - Buckeyes have to win this one. If not, all hopes rest on winning the Big Ten Tournament.
LSU at Kentucky - LSU is also in must-win mode. A season sweep of UK would be beneficial to their resume.
Syracuse at Florida State - A good 'ol bubble game. FSU needs this more but Syracuse still isn't safely in the field by any means.
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech - Pitt lost to Virginia Tech after beating Duke. Can't afford another bad loss.
Marquette at Butler - Butler has to win this one. Home game vs. a team not expected to be in the field.
Alabama at Georgia - As quickly as Alabama rose, they have fallen. A loss here probably means a SEC Tournament championship is the only way in.
Iowa State at Kansas - Win by Kansas locks up the top overall seed in the tournament.
Oregon at USC - Win by USC locks up their spot, though it's in good shape already.
South Carolina at Arkansas - Time for South Carolina to take care of business. Their spot should have been locked up weeks ago.
North Carolina at Duke - UNC's hopes of a 1 seed ride on this game. Can't be swept by Duke and expect to get to the top line.
Oregon State at UCLA - If the Beavers don't trip up here, I'm making them a lock.
Yale at Columbia - A win by Yale clinches the Ivy championship, and their first NCAA berth since 1962.
Florida at Missouri - The Gators are on a slippery slope and if they don't win this one, they're out of the field for sure.
Iowa at Michigan - A huge opportunity for Michigan to get a big win. Iowa also is falling fast. They were once a 1 seed and now have fallen to a 6 seed.
VCU at Dayton - Not sure a loss hurts VCU too much but a loss would be huge for them.
Portland at Gonzaga - Looking like Gonzaga is going to need some help to get in the tournament without winning the WCC tourney

SUNDAY

SMU at Cincinnati - Great opportunity for Cincy for a big win before the AAC tournament to raise their stock.
UCF at UConn - UConn knows it can't afford to slip up here.


Next update will come after Sunday's games. And starting after Tuesday's games, we're going daily until Selection Sunday! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 1

It's March! One of my favorite months of the year. Not because of the weather. Not even because of St. Patrick's Day. It's all because of the basketball. Pretty much starting today, every game means something. It means winning a regular season conference championship. It means playing yourself on to or off of the bubble. Or it could mean that amazing upset that will have a nation talking. It's the true ecstasy of victory and agony of defeat in this month. I. CAN'T. WAIT.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added a couple of more teams in this group. Wisconsin and Saint Joseph's. Both teams have avoided those terrible losses as of late plus added some quality wins in the past few weeks to cement their status as a tournament team.

LOCKS (30): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, Maryland, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Texas, Iowa State, California, Texas A+M, Iowa, Notre Dame, Indiana, Baylor, Dayton, Arizona, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's

AUTOS: Another change to the American Athletic Conference champ. You could literally choose between 5 teams right now (UConn, Temple, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Houston). It's a real cluster right now. For now, I'm going with UConn. I could easily change my mind again by the next post. Very fluid situation

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - UConn, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: For now. Michigan is gone from this group. First time since I've started posted. Just one too many losses, even if against quality competition. Butler returns but barely. Seton Hall and Oregon State are right on the cusp of moving up. Pittsburgh's win over Duke moved them close as well. Florida is heading the wrong direction and needs to regroup quickly.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (13): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, South Carolina, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Added 4 teams to the mix as they all got a big win that has them at least being considered. But all 4 teams have real work to do before serious consideration. All will have a chance in this final week of the regular season and then in their conference tournament. The new teams are Florida State, Ohio State, Houston and Georgia Tech. No teams dropped out

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (29): Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, USC, South Carolina, UConn, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, VCU, Florida, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Butler, Tulsa, Saint Mary's, Michigan, Temple, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Monmouth, Gonzaga, LSU, George Washington, BYU, Florida State, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), American (2)

COMING IN: Butler

GOING OUT: Michigan

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY

Kentucky at Florida - A win much needed for the Gators, who are trending downward right now

Tennessee at Vanderbilt - Vandy did well to beat Kentucky. Can't afford to follow it up with a loss to Tennessee at home.

Virginia at Clemson - Virginia is in real contention for a 1 seed.

Georgia Tech at Louisville - If GT can pull this massive win off, they'll really be a team to be talked about.

Baylor at Oklahoma - The Sooners are still alive for a 1 seed.

Missouri at LSU - Feels like every game now is a must-win for LSU.

Indiana at Iowa - If Iowa wants to play in Des Moines in the first two rounds, it's time to start winning again.

WEDNESDAY

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech - Huge game for Pitt to back up a Duke win at home with a road win at scrappy VT.

Miami (FL) at Notre Dame - The Canes have a legit shot at a 1 seed. This road win would help their case a good bit.

Texas Tech at West Virginia - Fun game to see a couple of tournament teams hoping to improve their seeding.

Saint Joseph's at St. Bonaventure - St. Bonaventure needs a quality win to create some separation between the other bubble teams.

Davidson at VCU - VCU is in pretty good shape still but a loss here puts them on shaky ground.

Seton Hall at Butler - Massive game. Seton Hall can lock up a spot with a win. Butler can't lock up a spot but can lose their spot in the field with a loss.

Arkansas at Alabama - Must-win for Bama. Plain and simple.

Oregon State at USC - Safe to say probably the winner can lock up their spot. Both fairly safe right now anyways.

THURSDAY

Georgia at South Carolina - The Gamecocks record is impressive. But their wins really aren't. So they remain on the bubble. Can't afford a loss here.

Memphis at Temple - Temple just needs to keep winning.

UConn at SMU - Great opportunity for UConn to get not just a quality win, but on the road. Great resume builder. 

Cincinnati at Houston - Always a big deal when two bubble teams face off. Winner does themselves a lot of good.

Next update will come after Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 27

It's the final weekend in February. Hard to believe the season has gone so fast. But the best is yet to come. Championship Week. Selection Sunday. The First Four. And of course, those glorious 4 days of March Madness that paralyzes a nation's attention. Well, at least mine. So it won't be much longer everyone. All the fun that is March Madness is right around the corner.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 teams since last post and all deserve their inclusion. Colorado jumps in thanks to a quality win vs. Arizona. Indiana continues to lead the Big Ten and by avoiding the bad loss to Illinois can now breathe easy I think. And finally, how about Texas Tech?! The Red Raiders were left for dead about 4 weeks ago. But since then, they've rattled off big win after big win. And take a look at their RPI and SOS numbers and you'd be foolish to keep them out now. Well done Tubby Smith.

LOCKS (28): Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, Oregon, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Utah, Maryland, Duke, Iowa, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Purdue, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Dayton, Arizona, California, Texas, Indiana, Baylor, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence

AUTOS: A few changes here. Tulsa crushed Temple this past week so I'm making them the AAC champ. Also, Hofstra replaces UNC-Wilmington after beating them this week. Also, putting Princeton in the Ivy spot instead of Yale.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Tulsa, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome back Vanderbilt to the group. No one truly dropped out but with Temple falling from the ranks of the AUTO and not up to snuff for this group, Vandy gets in. Lot of moveent as teams near the top of this list last week all lost (Pittsburgh, USC, Florida) while teams near the bottom got some nice wins (Wisconsin, Oregon State, Seton Hall).

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Saint Joseph's, UConn, Wisconsin, South Carolina, USC, Oregon State, Florida, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Syracuse, VCU, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: It was fun while it lasted Washington but your bubble has burst. Another loss for the Huskies this past week. LSU lost as well and they are hanging on by a thread. When you're at the bottom of this list, every game feels like a must-win. Not many teams even on the bubble, which makes my job very easy. That is, until upsets happen in conference tournaments that have some AUTO teams in this group really be on the bubble.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (25): Saint Joseph's, UConn, Wisconsin, South Carolina, USC, Oregon State, Florida, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Tulsa, VCU, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Butler, Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, George Washington, BYU, LSU

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (7), A-10 (4), Big East (4), American (2)

COMING IN: Vanderbilt, Hofstra, Princeton

GOING OUT: Temple, UNC-Wilmington, Yale

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday or Monday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB