2016 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

So this is the end. My final bracket. My goals for my racket compared to the committee's is this:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

AND REMEMBER: There is no right/wrong in this exercise. This is all subjective. Yes, I would love to get all 68 teams but I am trying to predict the unpredictable, which is what 10 people I have never met are thinking. Hope you enjoyed this!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added UConn. They deserved it. Some decent shuffling as well with UNC jumping to the second spot, Villanova dropping to sixth, and Saint Joseph's and Seton Hall moving up some slots.

LOCKS (38): Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oregon, Michigan State, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, West Virginia, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Texas A+M, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Duke, California, Iowa State, Texas, Arizona, Seton Hall, Baylor, Notre Dame, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Providence, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, USC, St. Bonaventure, UConn, South Carolina, Wichita State

AUTOS: Changes only coming to teams that won their tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - Fresno State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - Cal St. Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: This was tough.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Again, this was tough.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (12): Butler, Cincinnati, VCU, Monmouth, Temple, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Valparaiso, Tulsa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 12

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! What a Friday of college basketball. Fantastic finishes galore and numerous overtime games. And this is just an appetizer to the NCAA Tournament. I have a little bit of movement in the bracket. Tomorrow, I'll post my final projected bracket around 3-4pm. For now, here's the penultimate post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No additions but the biggest move is that north Carolina jumps to the 4 spot, meaning they are the 4th number one seed. Villanova has locked their one seed up. Virginia and North Carolina will lock up the third one with a win. The fourth could still be up for grabs but I haven't made up my mind yet. I think the top 8 teams are locked into  one and two seeds. The only team that could spoil that is West Virginia.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Xavier, Utah, Kentucky, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Texas, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Seton Hall, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome UConn to the group. It's amazing to think a half-court shot at the buzzer could be what gets them in the field. But I think it does. Vanderbilt drops out after hanging on by a thread.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed even more. Tulsa, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Ohio State and Houston have all hit the end of the road in terms of realistic chances of making the tournament. LSU needed a lot of help that they did not get so they need to win the SEC Tournament to make the Big Dance so they're gone as well. Michigan makes a good sized jump thanks to their buzzer-beating win vs. Indiana and is right on the verge of getting in.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (13): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, UConn, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), A-10 (4), SEC (4), American (3), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: UConn, Southern

GOING OUT: Vanderbilt, Texas Southern

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Purdue - Another must-win for Michigan. If they do, good chance they sneak into the field.
LSU vs. Texas A+M - LSU needs all the wins it can get.
UConn vs. Temple - UConn can earn their spot in the field with this win. I think Temple is pretty safe even with a loss.
Georgia vs. Kentucky - Georgia also needs to just keep on winning.
Michigan State vs. Maryland - MSU might be able to sneak onto that one seed line. But they have to win the B1G tournament. I'm not convinced the committee will wait though until that game to make the decision on those top seeds.
Davidson vs. VCU - This is big for two reasons. If VCU wins, they all but lock up their spot. But if Davidson wins, they could become a bid-stealer with an A-10 Tournament championship.
Tulane vs. Memphis - Bid-stealer alert! Winner here gets a chance in the American Tournament championship.
West Virginia vs. Kansas - West Virginia could possibly move up to a two seed with this Big 12 championship game victory.
Fresno State vs. San Diego State - San Diego State is on the bubble if they lose, I would argue they are probably out,
Virginia vs. North Carolina - Winner clinches a one seed, though both may have one when all is said and done.

Utah vs. Oregon - Still a slim chance Oregon gets up to a one seed. Just unsure if the committee will put a Pac-12 team on the top line.

Next (and FINAL) update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 11

2 days and counting. Don't forget, we're going DAILY so check back tomorrow for the latest update after all of Friday's action, which will surely impact the 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Did not add a team but shuffled Notre Dame and Iowa a bit. ND moving up in the order while Iowa goes down.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Only change is that another top seed in a conference tournament lost. This time it was UAB in Conference-USA.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Still down to 6 teams and the same 6 teams but a significant move happened. Vanderbilt went from not the 5th to last team in to now the last team in and very vulnerable to dropping out depending on what teams below them do.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Vanderbilt

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group has been trimmed again as Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech lost in the ACC Tournament. Neither has a realistic shot now. Other than that, everyone else either won or had a bye.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (20): Butler, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Tulsa, UConn, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Michigan, Florida, Alabama, George Washington, Georgia, Ohio State, Houston, LSU,

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (2), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: Middle Tennessee

GOING OUT: UAB

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan vs. Indiana - Michigan avoided the upset vs. Northwestern. Now, they have to topple the top seed. Do that and they are definitely back in the discussion.
South Florida vs. Temple - Temple is in for now as the AAC champion. Lose this and they go on the bubble and it gets dicey for them.
Florida vs. Texas A+M - Gators are in must-win mode. Win this one and maybe another and they could get into the field.
UConn vs. Cincinnati - BUBBALICIOUS! Winner is in great shape. The loser could be in rough shape.
George Washington vs. Saint Joseph's - GW can do themselves a world of good with this win.
Tennessee vs. LSU - LSU needs to win teh SEC Tournament. The road starts here.
Providence vs. Villanova - Got to think a Villanova win here solidifies the 1 seed for them.
UMass vs. VCU - VCU is in a spot where a loss is devastating. Get this win and get another to feel good.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina - Tar Heels still could move up to that 1 seed.
Alabama vs. Kentucky - A must-win for Bama, whose hopes are slim.
Memphis vs. Tulsa - Tulsa is also in must-win mode. Have to get this one to stay in the discussion.
Georgia vs. South Carolina - I think Georgia needs to win the SEC Tournament so win and advance to the next battle.
Miami (FL) vs. Virginia - UVA is holding on to that 1 seed for now. Loss here opens up a door.
Seton Hall vs. Xavier - Xavier's chances at a 1 seed stay alive with this win.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State - The Buckeyes are in must-win mode. This would go a long way into making the committee think. MSU needs this to have a chance at the 1 seed.
Ohio vs. Buffalo - Ohio is my alma mater. So you should watch. Bobcats looking for a spot in the MAc Tournament championship game.

Next update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

3 days and counting. Instead a long drawn out intro here, let me cut to the chase. My field is pretty much set. There will be a few tweaks here and there but nothing huge. I am also making some definitive calls in a few areas that I will detail below. And finally, from this point on, we are going DAILY! The hope is to have the brackets out by noon each day, except on Sunday, which will likely come around 3-3:30pm.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: First thing, Kansas is the overall number one seed, no matter what happens in the Big 12 Tournament. Villanova is about 90% secure as a 1 seed. Virginia and Oklahoma are not as safe. Teams like Xavier, Oregon, UNC, and MSU winning their conference tournaments could very well push them out. I expect Oklahoma to drop to a 2 seed because of that scenario but for now, they stay where they are. I added Pittsburgh to the list, thanks to their win vs. Syracuse in the ACC Tournament.

LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State

AUTOS: Good amount of change here as there have been a TON of upsets in the conference tournaments. A lot of the top seeds fell, allowing some other teams to get the automatic invite.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay, Patriot - Holy Cross, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: And now, we are down to 6 teams fighting for spots in the field (in my estimation). Butler feels safe to me. Vanderbilt not as much. And then the last 4 teams here could go either way for me. Monmouth and Saint Mary's had chances to lock up their spot in their conference tournament championship games but lost. Now, they are the mercy of the committee and the bubble teams below who could pass them up with good conference tournament showings. For now though, I think they have done enough to warrant a spot in the field.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I'll be honest here. This is a large list of bubble teams but the only teams that really have a shot to win a game or two and get into the field are probably just UConn, Tulsa, Florida, Michigan and Alabama. The rest of this group after them probably only gets in if they win the entire conference tournament. And for a couple like Valparaiso and Syracuse, their seasons are over as are their chances of improving their resume. Deleted BYU, Florida State, and Georgia Tech as all have seen their seasons end as well.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (22): Butler, Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary's, Syracuse, Tulsa, UConn, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Michigan, Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech, George Washington, LSU, Virginia Tech, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (2), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: Gonzaga, Iona, Green Bay, Holy Cross, UNC-Wilmington, Fairleigh Dickinson, 

GOING OUT: Syracuse, Tulsa, Hofstra, Valparaiso, Lehigh, IPFW, Wagner

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH

Northwestern vs. Michigan - Michigan needs to avoid the upset here. A win keeps them alive. A loss puts the nail in the coffin.

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina - Pittsburgh is in as is UNC. But #1 seed dreams for UNC end with a loss here.

Georgetown vs. Villanova - Nova probably just needs to make the semifinals of the Big East tourney to lock up that 1 seed.

Arkansas vs. Florida - Florida may need to get to the SEC Tournament championship to have a real chance.

Butler vs. Providence - If Butler can get this one, they'll be in really good shape. Providence is the kind of team that can make it happen.

Saint Louis vs. George Washington - GW is on life support.

Washington vs. Oregon - Washington is on life support as well. Oregon still has that outside shot at a 1 seed.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt - Vandy needs this one and maybe another if they want to rest easy on Sunday.

Penn State vs. Ohio State - A win here for OSU does nothing for them. A loss means NIT.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss - Ole Miss can play NCAA spoiler here. Alabama needs to make a run.

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia - GT needs this win and still some others. UVA needs it to keep the 1 seed they are currently in.

Marquette vs. Xavier - If Villanova loses early and Xavier wins the tournament, Xavier has a real shot of cracking the 1 seed line.

Mississippi State vs. Georgia - Georgia is on life support.

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) - Don't be shocked if VT makes a run in the ACC tournament. Buzz Williams can flat out coach.

Next update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology: Bubble Watch Special

It's that annual tradition of Barnes Bracketology where I lay out the resumes of the bubble teams and let you decide if I'm right or wrong about the bubble teams.

I'll be honest, this is the hardest part, coming up with those last few teams. It's splitting hairs to decide who should get in the field.

It all depends on which metric you like most. Maybe it's RPI. Maybe it's strength of schedule. Maybe it's recent performance or quality wins vs. bad losses. So many different ways to slice it.

And so without further adieu, here are the numbers (as of 3/7) in RPI order. The color coding just defines how I see them in the bracket right now. I included 3 teams that I think will win their conference tournaments but in case they don't, they will be very much in the bubble mix.

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have a new bracket posted on Thursday. It may feature some drastic changes as I re-evaluate every team closely for the last time, because come Thursday's games, we will be making just some subtle changes to seedings and making more time figuring out who gets in and who gets out, as I'm sure the committee will be doing as well.

MB