2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

This time next week, forget Barnes Bracketology. It will be all about breaking down the brackets. Six days now until Selection Sunday and figuring out how the NCAA Selection Committee decided to put together this puzzle that is the NCAA Tournament. As I've already said, there is no right or wrong way of doing this. My projections are just one way of putting the field together. I like to think though it is similar to the thinking of the ten college athletic administrators in that room this weekend in Indy.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We're up to 35 in this category as I've added Baylor and Oregon. What a run it's been for them. Both were barely a BUBBLE when I began posting but since, they have beaten a slew a quality teams and now I think are safely in. Oregon's win over Arizona means Florida is my new top seed. Kansas stays 4th as teams like Virginia and Wisconsin also lost. Beyond that, a lot of other teams lost so a decent shakeup in this group, especially around teams 20-30.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (35): Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Duke, Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Oklahoma, UMass, UCLA, Memphis, Ohio State, Texas, UConn, New Mexico, Kentucky, VCU, Kansas State, Colorado, Oregon, George Washington, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa


AUTOS: The conference tourneys have begun so lots of changes here. Upsets are always happening so I normally will just project the top seed of the tournament to win. You'll notice some teams in bold. That means they are officially in the Big Dance after winning their conference tourney. Harvard is the lone exception to that as they clinched their spot as regular season champion and also, were the first team officially in the field.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Wofford, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: With the final week before the tournament, we're down to really just 11 spots up for grabs in the tournament. The teams near the front of this list can feel better than the others, who not only can't afford an early loss in their conference tournament, but also can't afford surprise teams winning conference tournaments. As far as who's in/who's out, California is back in after an OT win over Colorado while Missouri drops out after being thrashed by Tennessee.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (11): BYU, SMU, Nebraska, Dayton, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, Tennessee, Arkansas, California

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: You never want to be on the BUBBLE. You definitely do not want to be this week. Lot of nervous fan bases this week, hoping their team does what it needs to do ad maybe also gets some help to sneak its way into the field. And remember VCU just 3 years ago, was one of the final teams into the field and made it to the Final Four so again, it's all just about getting in. I have it down to 20 teams fighting for those 11 AT-LARGE spots, with Gonzaga only really fighting for it if they fall in their conference tournament.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (20): Gonzaga, BYU, SMU, Nebraska, Dayton, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Minnesota, Xavier, Missouri, Providence, Florida State, St. John's, NC State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (4), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

 WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The 4th #1 seed is still up for grabs - I think Florida, Arizona and Wichita State are good. Kansas right now is in the best position for the last one but don't count out Virginia or Michigan if they win their conference tournament and Kansas gets upset early on.

2. Gonzaga and BYU can clinch spots tonight - I think both are in really good shape anyways but with wins tonight in the WCC Semifinals, they will be in. And that means one less AT-LARGE spot. But also means a surprise team can't steal that WCC tournament championship and the automatic bid that goes with it.

3. Beware the bid stealers - Every bubble team is worried about this. They dodged one bullet when Wichita State beat Indiana State in the MVC Tournament Championship. Now, they need teams from conferences like the Big East, Mountain West, SEC and others to simply have a team already projected in the field win the tournament championship.

4. Don't overvalue the conference tournaments - Yes, teams can clinch their spots with great tournament runs but at the same time, teams that get upset in the first round do not see their NCAA tourney hopes die. It's just another loss to stack up with the others.

5. Expect the unexpected - It's Championship Week. Anything goes. Top seeds have tumbled left and right in some of the mid-major conferences already. Expect that trend to continue this week in even some of the major conferences. When a team's back is against the wall, you are going to see some unusual results.

I will be making another post after Tuesday's action. It will either be a normal post complete with bracket or a Bubble Watch special, giving you the reader a chance to breakdown the contenders for those final AT-LARGE spots. Regardless, I will have a complete post after Wednesday's action and then, have one each and every day including one right before the Selection Show airs at 6pm ET.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

You know it's been a fun 4 days of basketball when 3 of your top 12 teams lose and among your AT-LARGE group, only about half win. What does that mean? It means movement in and out of the field and in the seedings, and at a critical time as we are just 10 days away from Selection Sunday.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Just as I did in the last post, we are adding teams here who have probably done enough to make the field as we approach the conference tournaments. 3 teams added to the group this week in Colorado, George Washington and Oklahoma State. All 3 beat teams currently projected into the field over the past week so they earned their way in.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (33): Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Villanova, Duke, Syracuse, Creighton, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Michigan State, North Carolina, San Diego State, Saint Louis, Oklahoma, UCLA, UMass, Texas, UConn, Kentucky, Memphis, New Mexico, Kansas State, VCU, Ohio State, Iowa, Colorado, George Washington, Oklahoma State


AUTOS: Made a few changes to this group. Changing to Florida Gulf Coast who will host the conference tournament championship game. Also, changed to Southern Miss in the CUSA as I think they have figured out their problems and are the best.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Alabama State, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Down to just 13 spots here so things are getting tight. Baylor and Oregon continue to rise from the ashes with great wins and are very close to locking up their spot. Pittsburgh and Stanford continue their descent as they are lucky to still be in my projected field. Nebraska and Missouri are now in while Xavier and California are out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (13): Arizona State, SMU, BYU, Baylor, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arkansas, Dayton, Stanford, Nebraska, Tennessee, Missouri

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The number keeps dwindling in this group. Some of that is because some are graduating into the LOCKS. Some of that is because bubbles are bursting. This time, it is Richmond who has not won a meaningful game in a while and find themselves in real trouble. Beyond that, still about 4-5 teams that are very close to getting in. It really is too close to call.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (23): Arizona State, SMU, Gonzaga, BYU, Baylor, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Arkansas, Dayton, Stanford, Nebraska, Tennessee, Missouri, Georgetown, California, Xavier, Minnesota, Providence, St. John's, Florida State, LSU, Utah

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (6), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), SEC (5), Big East (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

 

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
WEST vs. EAST
SOUTH vs. MIDWEST

**Arizona is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

 

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 3

Less than 2 weeks now until Selection Sunday. In fact, some conference tournaments actually begin this week! With all due respect to Christmas, this truly is the most wonderful time of the year! Well, that is if you love college basketball and March Madness as much as I do.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Getting close to Selection Sunday so added 3 more teams who I'm sure are getting in. Kansas State, New Mexico and VCU all won this past weekend, all but locking up their spot so here they are. I did flip-flop Arizona and Florida for the top seed. Remember, this is a fluid process and I change my mind a lot even between posts.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (30): Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Kansas, Duke, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Syracuse, Creighton, Villanova, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Saint Louis, San Diego State, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, UCLA, Texas, UConn, Kentucky, UMass, Memphis, Kansas State, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio State, VCU


AUTOS: Couple of changes in this group as we near some conference tournaments for some of them. Utah Valley and UC-Irvine are back in and High Point jumps in for the first time. Harvard is one win away from being the first time in bold for clinching its spot in the Big Dance.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - High Point, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Alabama State, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - Utah Valley, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Actually a decent weekend for many of the teams that were in this group from the last post. So that means not too much movement but we do welcome a new team. Dayton is back in after a big win over UMass. Minnesota drops out as their volatile regular season continues. Xavier is out of the "First Four" game thanks to a victory over Creighton.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (16): Arizona State, SMU, George Washington, Pittsburgh, BYU, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Arkansas, Xavier, Oregon, California, Dayton, Tennessee

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Now down to 26 teams in the Bubble category and soon, bubble will be bursting all over the place. The teams near the end have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (26): Arizona State, SMU, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, BYU, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Baylor, Arkansas, Xavier, Oregon, California, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, Nebraska, St. John's, Missouri, Providence, Georgetown, Florida State, LSU, Richmond

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (5), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (4), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
WEST vs. EAST
SOUTH vs. MIDWEST

**Arizona is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 28

March is here. And I for one, couldn't be happier about that. Now every game REALLY matters, as conference regular season titles are coming down to the final few games. And then, it's conference tournament time with NCAA berths on the line. And then of course, the Madness. Should be fun.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Did not add one team here from the games through Thursday but the order did change slightly due to some wins/losses.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (27): Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Wichita State, Duke, Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, Wisconsin, Villanova, Louisville, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Iowa State, San Diego State, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Kentucky, UConn, Oklahoma, UMass, Memphis, Iowa, Ohio State


AUTOS: Only one change among the group. Found out that Southern as of now is ineligible for the NCAA Tourney. They are in the middle of an appeal process but for now, ineligible. So I replaced them with Alabama State in the SWAC.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - VMI, Big West - UC-Santa Barbara, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Alabama State, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Lot more movement here than expected. Not just in the order but of the teams from the BUBBLE that jumped in. 5 teams in all who all snagged good wins. So welcome in Minnesota, Arkansas, Tennessee, Xavier and Oregon. The teams that dropped out are Nebraska, Richmond, Missouri, Dayton and St. John's.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (19): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, VCU, Arizona State, Stanford, Pittsburgh, George Washington, St. Joseph's, BYU, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Arkansas, California, Baylor, Tennessee, Xavier, Oregon

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Still holding strong at 29 teams in this group fighting for what is still 19 AT-LARGE spots right now. And remember Gonzaga is in this group in case they lose their conference tourney so they may/may not really need to be in this group.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (29): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, VCU, Arizona State, Stanford, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Gonzaga, St. Joseph's, BYU, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Arkansas, California, Baylor, Tennessee, Xavier, Oregon, Dayton, Nebraska, Richmond, St. John's, Missouri, Providence, LSU, Georgetown, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), A-10 (5), Big East (4), SEC (4), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday's games.

MB

2014 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 24

Well, that was an eventful weekend of college basketball. Forget Jim Boeheim and his "technical" difficulties. There were a lot of games that shook up the bracket and could have some lasting effects as we creep closer to March. Trying to separate the teams that should be in and out is getting harder instead of easier as in other years. I think that just furthers the point that the move to 68 teams really dilutes the quality of the tournament. Teams that have been really mediocre are still alive when in a field of 64, likely would be NIT-bound.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 2 more teams to this group and both are well-deserved. Ohio State earned another top-50 RPI win, beating Minnesota. Buckeyes should be safe now. Same goes for UMass. The Minutemen took down a top-50 foe in VCU and their resume is strong enough to graduate to this group. Besides the additions, a lot of shakeups. Syracuse falls out of my top 4 teams and teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville and North Carolina make healthy moves up.

These are in order so you have an idea of how I rank the teams.

LOCKS (27): Florida, Arizona, Kansas, Wichita State, Duke, Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, Wisconsin, VIllanova, Saint Louis, Michigan State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, San Diego State, Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Iowa, UConn, Oklahoma, Memphis, Ohio State, UMass


AUTOS: Few amendments to this group as some teams that struggled over the past week caused me to re-consider if they will walk away with the conference tournament title.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Mercer, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - VMI, Big West - UC-Santa Barbara, Colonial - Delaware, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Green Bay, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Western Michigan, MEAC - NC Central, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Boston Univ., Southern - Davidson, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia State, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Gonzaga

AT-LARGE: Some decent movement here. 3 teams move in (Nebraska, Richmond, and Baylor) while 3 teams move out (Tennessee, Minnesota, Xavier). Besides that, New Mexico and SMU got quality victories that have them knocking on the door of being a LOCK. Arizona State and Pittsburh hut themselves with bad losses. And now that Oklahoma State has Marcus Smart, may be a good time to prove to the masses they are better than where they are ranked now.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton

AT-LARGE (19): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, Stanford, VCU, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Baylor, Nebraska, Richmond, Missouri, St. John's

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: For now, the bubble has burst on Ole Miss, Indiana State and West Virginia. At a time when all they need to win, they lost. So we may see them again...or we may not. Florida State beat Pitt on the road and stays alive. Georgetown helped themselves out by beating Xavier and LSU came oh so close to a huge road win at Kentucky before falling in OT. They doesn't help obviously, but didn't hurt too badly as they remain alive.

These are in order, so the teams after the last team in the AT-LARGE category are the first ones out.

BUBBLE (30): Kansas State, SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, Stanford, VCU, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Gonzaga, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, California, BYU, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Baylor, Nebraska, Richmond, Missouri, St. John's, Georgetown, Minnesota, Tennessee, Xavier, Providence, LSU, Arkansas, Clemson, Oregon, Florida State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
  Big 12 (7), A-10 (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), AAC (5), ACC (5), Big East (4), SEC (3), MWC (2), WCC (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Florida is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games.

MB