2018 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 5

The Super Bowl has come and gone. That can only mean one thing. The start of another season of Barnes Bracketology. It's amazing to think this is my 9th year doing this. What began as something to do to just pass the time during some boring afternoons in Augusta, GA has turned into something fun and challenging.

Last year was a perfect year for me in terms of accuracy, getting all 68 of 68 teams. In full disclosure, I thought it was fairly easy last year. Many times, it comes down to 2-3 teams and last year, the final teams separated themselves. Now of course, there technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.

This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is comprised of teams that have locked up their spot in the tournament. Yes, even with a month to go. Initially, this list is small because it pains me to take someone off this list. It will grow gradually as teams get big wins and improve their resumes.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (20): Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier, Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Arizona, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Seton Hall


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Long Beach St, Colonial - Charleston, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Wright State, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Rider, MAC - Buffalo, MEAC - North Carolina A&T, Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Louisiana, WAC - New Mexico State, WCC - Saint Mary's

AT-LARGE: This is the group that is always the toughest to come up with. The group of teams that are getting in but by no means is it a guarantee. The first half of this group is probably in good shape but February is a volatile month in college basketball and can make or break teams so expect plenty of shuffling as we head into March.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (24): Wichita State, Florida, Alabama, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Washington, Michigan, Creighton, Providence, Florida State, Texas, Louisville, Butler, Arizona State, Texas A&M, USC, Arkansas, Syracuse, NC State, Missouri, UCLA, TCU, Boise State, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And now the dreaded bubble. If you know college basketball, you know what this means. You are not safe. This group will grow and shrink frequently as teams get on hot and cold streaks. It's not the best list to be on but if you fall off of it, you're in real trouble. Every team in the AT-LARGE category is in this group because they aren't a LOCK and you could always find a team from the AUTO group in here too because if they lose their conference tournament, they would need to be in a good position in this group.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (38): Wichita State, Saint Mary's, Florida, Alabama, Miami (FL), Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington, Michigan, Creighton, Providence, Florida State, Texas, Louisville, Butler, Arizona State, Texas A&M, USC, Arkansas, Syracuse, NC State, Missouri, UCLA, TCU, Boise State, Kansas State, Middle Tennessee, Nebraska, Houston, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Georgia, St. Bonaventure, LSU, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, SMU, Utah, Marquette, Western Kentucky, Stanford

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Big 12 (7), SEC (7), Big East (6), Pac-12 (5), Big Ten (4), American (2), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. EAST
MIDWEST vs. WEST

**Virginia is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Be gentle. It's early. Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

The 5-week journey that is Barnes Bracketology comes to an end today. And what a journey it was. This year might have been the most stress-free one yet. Not a ton of major upsets in the conference tournaments and the mid-major scene wasn't as strong as normal. It made for some easier decisions, which is always welcome for me.

So of course, I would love to go 68 for 68 and get every seed right. Realistically, that won't happen. But here are the 4 main goals I have set out for myself since my first year doing this:
1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the first/second round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

And a reminder, there is no right or wrong way to put this bracket together. I am simply trying to predict what a group of 10 people will do. It's impossible to read their minds so if something is different, it's not that I am wrong. It means we just had different opinions.
 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 2 more teams. Rhode Island and Marquette. Xavier was in this group as well but had to drop them to the AT-LARGE because they are in the First Four. As far as movement, Duke jumps up to a 2 seed, dropping Louisville. Oregon remains a 2 seed but barely. Michigan jumped up a seed line as well.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (43): Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, Oregon, Louisville, Baylor, UCLA, Florida State, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati, Butler, SMU, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Iowa State, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, VCU, Maryland, Arkansas, Dayton, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, South Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Michigan State, Providence, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Rhode Island 


AUTOS: All changes were because of upsets in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Troy, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Rhode Island's win bumped Xavier to this group. They're safely in. I think Wake Forest is too. After that, it's questionable. USC, Kansas State and Syracuse are fighting for 2 spots. I'm giving them to USC and Kansas State. I may be right. I may be wrong.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (4): Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: What a bubble this has been. Not really that competitive. I've made the list longer than it's needed to be but for this final one, I'm putting down the 4 teams that actually scared the tournament a little. 

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (8): Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State, Syracuse, California, Illinois State, Iowa

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. WEST
MIDWEST vs. SOUTH

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. A full recap will come later in the week!

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 11

So much basketball ahead of us today and tomorrow. So many bids to give away. And so much to be decided. So less intro and more analysis of what's at stake.

Don't forget, I'm updating DAILY. And make sure you follow me on Twitter to get my real-time thoughts about the field as the games go on. 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 2 more teams. Vanderbilt, which was already close but definitely in after beating Florida for a third time. Also added Middle Tennessee, who should be safely in even with a loss in the CUSA title game. As far as shuffling, Arizona and Duke keep moving up. Arizona is up to a 2 seed while Duke will be one with a win tonight (passing Louisville). I don't Arizona, Oregon or Duke can get to a 1 seed. The top 4 seeds as far as 16 teams are probably set except for maybe Cincinnati falling in favor of SMU or Notre Dame jumping in with a win vs. Duke tonight. We shall see.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (41): Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky, Louisville, Arizona, Duke, Baylor, UCLA, Florida State, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati, Butler, SMU, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia, Minnesota, Iowa State, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Creighton, VCU, Dayton, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wichita State, South Carolina, Northwestern, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Michigan State, Providence, Middle Tennessee 


AUTOS: No changes here besides taking out Middle Tennessee as they have graduated to a LOCK.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - UT Arlington, WAC - Cal St Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: So Marquette and Xavier are as close to locks as you can get without being it but I'm leaving some wiggle room there. But both teams should feel good about being in the field. The last 4 teams on this list should not because of bid-stealers. Teams like Davidson (A10), Alabama (SEC), Marshall (CUSA), and UCF (AAC) are still alive and if they all win their conference tournaments, those are 4 spots taken from this group. So I can't lock these teams up just by principle. Again, I could probably do so with Marquette and Xavier and might come tomorrow but let me get one day to think about it. Oh, and also I added Kansas State and demoted Syracuse. Just think Syracuse's bad losses are going to keep them out.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (6): Marquette, Xavier, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: So Syracuse has fallen into this group that is a whole bunch of teas that are done playing. Teams like TCU, Indiana, Georgia and California had chances for huge wins but all lost. So don't expect any movement here tomorrow. In my opinion, the final spots are really down to USC, Kansas State, Syracuse and Cal.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (14): Marquette, Xavier, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State, Syracuse, California, Illinois State, Georgia, TCU, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. WEST
MIDWEST vs. SOUTH

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Last update comes TOMORROW!

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 10

March Madness officially begins next Thursday but in my mind, it kind of already has. Yesterday felt like a Madness day with basketball on from noon until 2am. We had upsets, buzzer-beaters and more. I hope you're finding time to enjoy it because this month of fun is already underway.

Don't forget, I'm updating DAILY. And make sure you follow me on Twitter to get my real-time thoughts about the field as the games go on. 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We're getting late in the proceeding so it's no surprise I added 3 more teams. Seton Hall anf Michigan State were probably safe before their wins yesterday. Providence actually lost but they've done enough.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (39): Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Louisville, Oregon, Kentucky, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA, Florida State, Duke, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati, Butler, SMU, Notre Dame, Virginia, West Virginia, Dayton, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Maryland, VCU, Oklahoma State, Creighton, South Carolina, Arkansas, Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Providence 


AUTOS: Np changes here.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - UT Arlington, WAC - Cal St Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: Did a little shuffling and added USC. Yes, USC lost but they showed more in that loss to UCLA than Illinois State did in their loss to Wichita State. The committee should see that. But USC is done playing so there is time for BUBBLE teams to jump them, including Kansas State and Cal.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (7): Vanderbilt, Marquette, Rhode Island, Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Syracuse

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The loss by Iowa yesterday ended their hopes of making the field. TCU jumps back into the conversation thanks to an upset of Kansas. Indiana is back on the board too though they may need 2 more big wins. Georgia has a chance vs. Kentucky to make a big jump. Lot to still be decided by these teams.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (16): Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Rhode Island, Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Syracuse, Kansas State, California, Illinois State, Georgia, TCU, Indiana, Iowa, Houston

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. WEST
MIDWEST vs. SOUTH

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes TOMORROW!

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 9

It's been 3 days since I've done an update and let's be honest, not much has happened. So this is more of a courtesy update before what will be a very busy next few days. You will notice very minimal changes but a little analysis of what I'm thinking in terms of the field.

After this post though, I'm updating DAILY. And make sure you follow me on Twitter to get my real-time thoughts about the field as the games go on. 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Literally did not move a team in this group because the majority have not played a game at all or if they did just one and beat a team they should have. But what is new is that I think the 1 seeds are locked up: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and Gonzaga. Nothing that happens in the next few days will change that. The 2 seeds are all but set as well but that's not absolute just yet.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (36): Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Louisville, Oregon, Baylor, Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, Florida State, Duke, Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati, SMU, Virginia, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Dayton, Saint Mary's, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, VCU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Creighton, Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan 


AUTOS: Only one change here, which is in the Summit league. Expect some upsets though as the days go on. A few teams that I projected would clinch did exactly that.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - UT Arlington, WAC - Cal St Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: Again, did not move one team in this group but this is important to note. Syracuse lost in their first game of the ACC tourney, which does not bode well for them. That means teams below them have an opportunity to jump them. Same goes for Illinois State and Wake Forest, which are both done playing. Xavier is also on the edge. They avoided the upset to DePaul, which would have been devastating. What happens on Thursday and Friday will determine a lot in this group.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (10): Seton Hall, Michigan State, Rhode Island, Providence, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Marquette, Syracuse, Xavier, Illinois State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The bubble has burst for two teams that were in this group. Clemson is gone after a loss to Duke. It's not a bad loss but they couldn't afford it. Same goes for Georgia Tech, who lost to Pitt. Now that actually was a bad loss. Both are NIT bound.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (17): Seton Hall, Michigan State, Rhode Island, Providence, Middle Tennessee Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Marquette, Syracuse, Xavier, Illinois State, USC, Kansas State, California, Iowa, Georgia, Illinois

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-12 (3), American (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. WEST
MIDWEST vs. SOUTH

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes TOMORROW!