Sunday, March 12, 2017

2017 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL


The 5-week journey that is Barnes Bracketology comes to an end today. And what a journey it was. This year might have been the most stress-free one yet. Not a ton of major upsets in the conference tournaments and the mid-major scene wasn't as strong as normal. It made for some easier decisions, which is always welcome for me.

So of course, I would love to go 68 for 68 and get every seed right. Realistically, that won't happen. But here are the 4 main goals I have set out for myself since my first year doing this:
1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the first/second round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

And a reminder, there is no right or wrong way to put this bracket together. I am simply trying to predict what a group of 10 people will do. It's impossible to read their minds so if something is different, it's not that I am wrong. It means we just had different opinions.
 

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 2 more teams. Rhode Island and Marquette. Xavier was in this group as well but had to drop them to the AT-LARGE because they are in the First Four. As far as movement, Duke jumps up to a 2 seed, dropping Louisville. Oregon remains a 2 seed but barely. Michigan jumped up a seed line as well.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.


LOCKS (43): Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Duke, Oregon, Louisville, Baylor, UCLA, Florida State, Florida, Purdue, Cincinnati, Butler, SMU, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Iowa State, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Saint Mary's, Creighton, VCU, Maryland, Arkansas, Dayton, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Wichita State, South Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Michigan State, Providence, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Rhode Island 


AUTOS: All changes were because of upsets in conference tournaments.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf CoastBig Sky - North Dakota, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Horizon - Northern Kentucky, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - NC Central, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Jacksonville StatePatriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Troy, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Rhode Island's win bumped Xavier to this group. They're safely in. I think Wake Forest is too. After that, it's questionable. USC, Kansas State and Syracuse are fighting for 2 spots. I'm giving them to USC and Kansas State. I may be right. I may be wrong.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (4): Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State



BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: What a bubble this has been. Not really that competitive. I've made the list longer than it's needed to be but for this final one, I'm putting down the 4 teams that actually scared the tournament a little. 

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (8): Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Kansas State, Syracuse, California, Illinois State, Iowa



SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)


(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. WEST
MIDWEST vs. SOUTH

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. A full recap will come later in the week!

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