2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 25

Here at Barnes Bracketology HQ, the weather has turned from 78 and sunny to 40 and snow/hail. It's a cruel world we live in. But it's a great metaphor for how things can change so quickly, as many of the teams below know. Fortunes can change quickly, especially in these next couple of weeks. It should be fun to watch with March just around the corner.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: 2 more teams have come into this group. VCU has done enough as has Oklahoma State, which has really played well in February. We also have a new team in the first spot. Congrats to Gonzaga, but that spot is not secure as Kansas and Villanova both have more chances for quality wins.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (30): Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville, Baylor, Oregon, Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Duke, Florida State, UCLA, Cincinnati, Purdue, Butler, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, SMU, Dayton, Virginia, Minnesota, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Maryland,South Carolina, VCU, Xavier, Oklahoma State


AUTOS: Made a couple of changes. Nothing earth-shattering. 

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - North Dakota, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - ETSU, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - UT Arlington, WAC - Cal St Bakersfield

AT-LARGE: Providence joins the fray after a good win vs. Creighton. Wake Forest also draws back in. Kansas State and Georgia Tech are out for now after losing this week. Some big wins for teams this weekend could see them graduate to a LOCK.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Iowa State, Arkansas, USC, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Syracuse, California, Illinois State, Rhode Island, Providence, Michigan, Wake Forest

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: I've done some trimming to this group. Teams like Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Indiana and Clemson are just playing so awful right now that it doesn't make sense to even include them. In the case of the Hoosiers, they have a RPI of 100. Clemson and Pitt are both 3-9 in their last 12. They just aren't tourney teams despite some quality wins for all.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (28): Iowa State, Arkansas, USC, Miami (FL), Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Syracuse, California, Illinois State, Rhode Island, Providence, Michigan, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Marquette, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Vanderbilt, TCU, Tennessee, Houston, Nevada, Alabama, Ole Miss, Ohio State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big East (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Gonzaga is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Monday.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 17

4 days of basketball have come and gone and not a ton of action as far as Bracketology goes. A lot of teams that were expected to win did. And the ones that did probably did not move too much because of just one loss. Big weekend of games ahead though!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Didn't move a lot of teams. Didn't add any teams either. Very close to adding some more if some teams.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (26): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State, Kentucky, Florida, Duke, UCLA, Virginia, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin, Butler, Notre Dame, Maryland, Creighton, SMU, South Carolina, Dayton, Xavier


AUTOS: Changed just one team. Welcome UT Arlington! 

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Boise State, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Furman, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - UT Arlington, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: The first part of this group is pretty much the same but the back half did see a shuffle. Welcome Illinois State to this group for the first time and goodbye to Tennessee for now. A 13-12 record ain't gonna cut it.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Arkansas, Michigan State, Syracuse, Michigan, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Illinois State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Kansas State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Because I want to keep track of more teams as we move a month until Selection Sunday, I added some teams to the end of this group. By no means am I confident that any of those teams will play their way into the field but I wanted to monitor them for a bit and see what happens.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (37): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Arkansas, Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, Michigan, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Illinois State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Kansas State, TCU, Georgia, Clemson, Providence, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Marquette, Indiana, Georgetown, Houston, Auburn, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Nevada, Pittsburgh

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Monday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

Another fun weekend of basketball. But that's not the biggest story. It's the reveal of the top 16 seeds as of now. Saturday at 12:30pm, the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee revealed those top teams and gave us a bit of a glimpse into what they think of teams now.

My reaction to their work was a favorable one. Probably because I had the exact same 1-3 seeds as they did. We differed on some 4 seeds but that's fine. All the ones I disagreed with were 5 seeds on my bracket. It's good to see that I am on the right track and thinking the same way as the committee with a month to go. Also, nice to see a bit of transparency. I know a lot will change before Selection Sunday but it was cool to see what they think of these teams so far.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 teams to this list and deservedly so. Creighton has avoided the major pitfalls since losing one of their best players for the season. They have done enough work to claim this spot. Same goes for SMU, who cemented their spot with a home win vs. Cincinnati, snapping their long win streak. Finally, added Dayton who went on the road and beat a good Rhode Island squad.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (26): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona, Florida State, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, UCLA, Duke, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame, Maryland, Creighton, South Carolina, SMU, Xavier, Dayton


AUTOS: Made a few changes to this group after a week of play. 

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (23): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Boise State, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Furman, Southland - New Orleans, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Arkansas State, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: This group didn't do a ton of shuffling. Of course, it lost a few to the LOCKS category. Big move came from Northwestern, who took down Wisconsin and is in much better shape now. Indiana dropped out and Michigan is in after the Wolverines took down the Hoosiers in Bloomington. Michigan State also reappears for now while TCU drops out. Reminder, this is a very fluid group, especially in February.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (19): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Michigan, Seton Hall

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Because I want to keep track of more teams as we move a month until Selection Sunday, I added some teams to the end of this group. By no means am I confident that any of those teams will play their way into the field but I wanted to monitor them for a bit and see what happens.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (37): Saint Mary's, USC, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Kansas State, Michigan State, Tennessee, Miami (FL), Michigan, Seton Hall, TCU, Illinois State, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Marquette, Georgia, Clemson, Houston, Auburn, Ohio State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Ole Miss, Providence, Nevada

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 11

First off, apologies for the one-day delay in posting. Two of my best friends had a baby and time that would have been spent posting instead were spent being around my "niece". It was time well spent.

As for the basketball, this is an exciting day for bracketologists everywhere because for the first time, the selection committee will release their top 16 seeds as of right now, 27 days before Selection Sunday. This will give us a rare look at how they rank the teams and give me a chance to compare and contrast. Now, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday so in all honesty, this glimpse doesn't really matter in the long run but it does give fans and bracketologists like myself something to talk and think about for the next 4 weeks.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Did not add one name to this group but did some minor shuffling. Nothing too crazy though.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (23): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Cincinnati, UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Xavier, Maryland, South Carolina


AUTOS: No changes here. Will re-visit this group after the weekend to make any changes

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - VCU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Plenty of shuffling here, and a few additions/subtractions. TCU, Seton Hall and Miami (FL) all enter the group after good wins that helped their resumes. The top 3 teams in this group are incredibly close to moving into the LOCKS category. Dayton's win at Rhode Island on Friday may actually be enough but I want to see how the rest of the weekend's games wrap up.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, California, Iowa State, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Northwestern, Tennessee, Wake Forest, TCU, Kansas State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Indiana

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: The addition of 3 teams in the group above means 3 teams have fallen out of the field. Those teams would be Michigan State, Marquette and Clemson. Plenty of time to get back in the mix but for now, back to just on the BUBBLE. Added Ohio State to this mix, though without a win at Maryland, may find themselves right back off of it. Georgetown and Texas Tech have been taken off this list as well for now.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Iowa State, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Arkansas, Northwestern, Tennessee, Wake Forest, TCU, Kansas State, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Indiana, Michigan State, Alabama, Michigan, Illinois State, Marquette, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Ohio State, Houston, Auburn, Memphis, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Monday around noon.

MB

2017 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 6

Here we are, once again. The start of another season of Barnes Bracketology. It's amazing to think this is my 8th year doing this. All born out of boredom and curiosity in Augusta, GA. It has truly become a labor of love, with the emphasis on the labor. This is not easy by any means and seems to get tougher every year as the criteria for how to get into the tournament seems to change slightly, making it harder to judge what the actual selection committee will do.

Last year was a bit of a down year for me in terms of accuracy, getting 65 of 68 teams. I would argue though the teams that were left out deserved to be in to this day. But that's the beauty of this process. There technically is no right or wrong answer. It's all subjective. So if I miss teams or mis-seed teams badly, it just means I have a different opinion than the committee.

This is a big puzzle that can be put together many different ways. And initially, you will see lots of movement as I try to really get a handle on these teams and their resumes. So sit back and enjoy as the process begins with my usual "day after Super Bowl" initial post. And make sure you come back on Friday for the next update.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is all about teams that are making the tournament, no matter what. If you're in this group, you're feeling really good. Only a couple of times have I had to take a team out of this group and it always pains me to do so. With that in mind, I tend to be cautious putting teams in here too early.

These are in order so you know how I rank these teams right now.

LOCKS (23): Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, Baylor, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Butler, Maryland, Notre Dame, Xavier, South Carolina


AUTOS: This group is all about the projected conference tournament champions. Obviously, I'm not dissecting the resume of each team in these conferences. Instead, I just go to standings and more times than not, pick the first place team and stick them here. Won't see a ton of changes here week-to-week until the conference tournaments begin.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (24): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - VCU, Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - UC Davis, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - Middle Tennessee, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - NC Central, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - Nevada, Northeast - Mount St. Mary's, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - East Tennesse State, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - North Dakota State, Sun Belt - Georgia Southern, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: This is the group that is always the toughest to come up with. The group of teams that are getting in but by no means is it a guarantee.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: And now the dreaded bubble. If you know college basketball, you know what this means. You are not safe. This group will grow and shrink frequently as teams get on hot streaks and cold streaks. It's not the best list to be on but if you fall off of it, you're in real trouble. Every team in the AT-LARGE category is in this group because they aren't a LOCK and you could always find a team from the AUTO group in here too because if they lose their conference tournament, they would need to be in a good position in this group.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (35): Creighton, Saint Mary's, Dayton, SMU, USC, Iowa State, VCU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Northwestern, California, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, Indiana, Marquette, TCU, Illinois Sate, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Michigan, Houston, Georgia, Georgetown, Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Memphis

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
EAST vs. SOUTH
WEST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions. Next update comes on Friday around noon.

MB