2009 NFL Predictions

It's that time of year again. When Steelers fans buy their playoff tickets before the season even starts. When Browns fans exclaim this is their year. And when Lions fans just hope they just win a game this season.

The NFL season is just about upon us and yours truly couldn't be more excited. Last year was an amazing season. Atlanta and Baltimore led to the playoffs by rookie QBs. The latest return of Brett Favre to the NFL. Ed Hochuli blowing a call that actually determined the outcome of a game. Kurt Warner leading the Cardinals to a surprise Super Bowl appearance. And the Steelers winning their unprecedented 6th Super Bowl.

But this is a new season and there's lot to be decided (obviously). Last year, my predictions were downright awful. I picked the Browns to win their division and my Super Bowl winner (Jacksonville) and runner-up (Dallas) didn't even make the playoffs. But last year's awfulness isn't deterring me from making predictions for this season. So without further adieu, here are my predictions sure to be made fun come February 2010.

AFC EAST
1. New England (12-4)* - Tom Brady is back. Need I say more? Actually, yes. The offense obviously will benefit from Brady's return. Look for the dynamic pass offense from 2007 to fill up the stat, and maybe record books again. The only concern for this team is the aging defense. Can it hold up not only through the regular season but the postseason as well?

2. NY Jets (9-7) - There doesn't seem to be a lot of faith in this team but here's why I have some. Rex Ryan is one heck of a defensive coach and he'll do wonders with that defense. Mark Sanchez won't be spectacular but will be effective. Finally, people will underestimate them. This year, they'll be good. Next year, they'll be great.

3. Miami (8-8) - This year's schedule is much tougher than last year, hence the drop-off in wins. Chad Pennington is a fine QB but his receivers are anything but. The defense was a takeaway machine last year. Don't expect them to make that kind of impact again this season. Oh and that wildcat thing? Teams will figure it out soon enough.

4. Buffalo (5-11) - Yes, they have Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch. But they also may have the worst O-Line in the NFL. That's not good news for an offense led by marginal QB Trent Edwards. Oh, and did I mention they fired their offensive coordinator last week? Gonna be a long year in Buffalo. Start the T.O. whining now.


NFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh (12-4)* - It's not gonna be easy to repeat as Super Bowl champs but winning this division again should be a piece of cake. They return pretty much everyone from one of the best defenses in the league. And on offense, Rashard Mendenhall is back and should help a running game led by the slowing and aging Willie Parker.

2. Cincinnati (9-7)* - This all depends on the health of one player and one player only: Carson Palmer. He lost T.J. Houshmanzadeh but gains LaVeranues Coles. Mike Zimmer took over the defensive corps and should continue to bring about a new energy and intensity to the group. Plus, they have an easier schedule than most. Could be a fun year.

3. Baltimore (8-8) - I'm expecting Joe Flacco to have a bit of a sophomore slump at QB. His receiving corps is weak and I have a feeling they'll depend on their running game way too much. The defense will still be good but without Rex Ryan running, expect a small drop-off. A tough schedule won't help them either in their quest for the playoffs.

4. Cleveland (4-12) - I just don't see where this team got any better. They traded away their best playmaker (Kellen Winslow), brought in an average coach in Eric Mangini, and have yet to see a QB really step up to grab the top spot. They'll take some lumps this year, big time. They'll be smaller though if they start Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson.


NFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis (11-5)* - Yes, Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison are gone but the constant Peyton Manning is still there. The personnel has changed a bit but the core group is there to make another playoff run. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders lead a pretty good defense too. Look out for Donald Brown at running back. Could make a big impact this season.

2. Jacksonville (10-6)* - They were much better than the 5-11 record last year. But thanks t injuries, they fell apart. Barring injury, they'll be back. The offense will be managed nicely by David Garrard, who has Maurice Jones-Drew to make the plays. The defense struggled last year but expect a resurgence. Jack Del Rio keeps his job if they make the playoffs.

3. Tennessee (8-8) - No Albert Haynesworth and D-Coordinator Jim Schwartz. Expect a drop-off from the defense. That means more pressure on the offense, which is led by mediocre QB Kerry Collins. Expect teams to play more men in the box to stop Chris Johnson and for this offense to struggle scoring points all season long.

4. Houston (7-9) - The Texans are a better team than the record I project but they are just in the wrong division. The offense will not disappoint, with Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson. But the defense, led by Mario Williams, is still a work in progress. They could be the surprise team of 2009 though, a la Atlanta or Miami from 2008.


NFC WEST
1. San Diego (12-4)* - They have the best offense and defense in the division. In fact, they'll probably have the division wrapped up in November. The biggest question will once again be if coach Norv Turner can overcome his struggles come January. This may be the year. He has all the pieces, barring injury. Now, he's got to make it happen.

2. Oakland (7-9) - Seeing that KC and Denver will be so bad, this is the chance for the Raiders to make a move. The running game should be solid. The passing game needs improvement though but I think Jamarcus Russell benefited from Jeff Garcia in training camp. The defense isn't stellar but they are young and talented.

3. Kansas City (5-11) - The record may not look good but this team will improve. Matt Cassel gives them a real QB for once. Dwayne Bowe is a legit deep threat too. And Todd Haley taking over as coach should really improve the offense. The defense though will struggle all season, which is the reason for the lack of victories in 2009.

4. Denver (4-12) - I'm not saying Josh McDaniels will be a bad coach but they will regret firing Mike Shanahan. Jay Cutler is gone and so is the mastermind of what was a great run offense. Now, the offense is led by Kyle Orton and last year's awful defense is transitioning to a whole new scheme. It's gonna be a tough year in the Mile High city.


NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia (12-4)* - Vick or no Vick, this team is good. Donovan McNabb has weapons and a line to protect him. A healthy Westbrook for the entire season would help too. The defense loses coordinator Jim Johnson but has plenty of talent to be one of the league's best. Oh, and Michael Vick could play a big role if Andy Reid plays his cards right.

2. NY Giants (11-5)* - The defense is too good to let this team fall too far. The return of Osi Umenyiora is huge. The offense still has Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning. But there's no real threat at WR. If this team ever gets behind, it could be an ugly sight. This team is playoff-bound but beyond that may be wishful thinking.

3. Dallas (8-8) - The distraction that is Terrell Owens is gone but the pressure to make the playoffs is not. Tony Romo has yet to show he is a big-game QB and now, he is without a real #1 WR. The RB tandem of Marion Barber-Felix Jones should be potent. But the Cowboys have the oldest offensive line in the NFL. That's never good.

4. Washington (8-8) - The defense improves greatly with Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo. But all eyes are on offense. Jason Campbell needs to have a big year to take some pressure off of Clinton Portis. If he does, this team could make some noise in the division. But I don't see that. Jim Zorn will keep his job but he'll be on thin ice.


NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota (11-5)* - They will have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which alone will keep them competitive. But with the addition of Brett Favre, they have a QB that understands what it takes to win a lot of games. With a true running back behind him this year, look for Favre to shine. Also, expect Percy Harvin to have a great rookie season.

2. Chicago (10-6) - Don't underestimate the importance of having Jay Cutler in Chicago. Though he has no receivers to throw to, it takes some pressure off of Matt forte in the backfield. The defense should be good once again, with the defensive line really improving upon last year's effort. They are a real dark horse contender this season.

3. Green Bay (9-7) - Happy days are almost back in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers should have a monster season while RB Ryan Grant should also see a boost in his numbers. The downfall of this team may be the defense, which is moving to a 3-4 defense. They have the personnel for it. It's just that changing to a new scheme is never easy.

4. Detroit (3-13) - Yes, they will struggle once again but I do think they will win a game. Matthew Stafford didn't look good in the preseason, which isn't a good sign for the regular season. But starting him is the right thing to do. He'll have a great wideout in Calvin Johnson and that's it. On defense, the linebackers are the only standouts.


NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta (11-5)* - Last season ws no fluke. Matt Ryan has real weapons and Michael Turner is the real deal at RB. Tony Gonzalez provides a veteran presence to the young sqaud. The offense will put up plenty of points and control the ball. That's good cause the defense needs some work, especially in the secondary. Regardless, should be a great season.

2. New Orleans (11-5)* - We know plenty about their offense, from Drew Brees to Reggie Bush to Marques Colston. But this year, the defense may show up too. Gregg Williams coordinates this group, which includes playmakers like Will Smith, Charles Grant and new acquisition Darren Sharper. If they play even mediocre, they'll win 11+ games.

3. Carolina (8-8) - Last year, they looked like the class of the NFC. This year, it might be the opposite. The running game should still be potent, but Jake Delhomme isn't getting better. The defense really needs work, especially stopping the run. That's not good news considering the division they are in and the incredibly tough schedule they will face.

4. Tampa Bay (6-10) - Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin are gone and probably don't mind that one bit. Byron Leftwich is the QB and leads what will be an average offense. Meanwhile, the defense isn't special anymore. They released emotional leader Derrick Brooks and are now in a bit of a rebuilding mode. This will be a tough 2009 for Tampa Bay.


NFC WEST
1. Seattle (10-6) - Injuries really hurt the Seahawks last season, sending Mike Holmgren into retirement on a sour note. But new head man Jim Mora Jr. should see success in Seattle this season. Matt Hasselbeck and T.J. Houshmanzadeh should lead an improved offense while Mora's influence should help improve a defense with a good mix of young and old.

2. Arizona (9-7) - The losses of coordinators Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergrast will hurt. Not to mention the curse of the Super Bowl loser (don't make playoffs the next year). The offense will score plenty of points once again and may even include a better running game. The defense though will determine just how far this team can go this season.

3. San Francisco (7-9) - I'm a big believer in Mike Singletary and what he is doing in San Fran. While I think the team will improve, the talent just isn't there right now to make a real run at the playoffs. Shaun Hill will have the benefit of a steady run game with Frank Gore while Patrick Willis leads a young but somewhat talented defensive unit.

4. St. Louis (5-11) - This is definitely going to be a project for Steve Spagnoulo. The defense will probably be improved under him but besides the defensive end positions, it's a young group. The offense has stars in Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson but not much else. They open the season with 3 of 4 on the road, which isn't much fun at all.


AFC Wild Card Playoffs
New England over Cincinnati
Indianapolis over Jacksonville


AFC Divisional Playoffs
Pittsburgh over New England
San Diego over Indianapolis


AFC Championship
San Diego over Pittsburgh



NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Minnesota over NY Giants
New Orleans over Seattle


NFC Divisional Playoffs
Atlanta over Minnesota
Philadelphia over New Orleans


NFC Championship
Philadelphia over Atlanta

Philadelphia over San Diego

MVP: Donovan McNabb

POSTSEASON AWARDS
Offensive Rookie: Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Defensive Rookie: Aaron Curry, SEA
Comeback Player: Carson Palmer, CIN
Coach: Jim Mora Jr., SEA
Offensive Player: Adrian Peterson, MIN
Defensive Player: DeMarcus Ware, DAL
NFL MVP: Philip Rivers, SD


That's it and that's all. My picks for week one are coming soon.