2009 College Football: Week 4

It's still September but already, the national title picture is taking shape. At the same time though, there is lots to be figured out. Starting this week, just about every game is a conference game, though there are a few fun non-conference games still to come this season. No matter the matchups though, every week is a big week in college football, especially with so much on the line each week.

Thanks to some upsets (Washington, Florida St), I didn't achieve the 15-0 mark I wanted. I did finish 10-5 though, which is respectable. That brings the season record up to 28-17. A lot of tricky games to pick this week as well so not looking for 15-0 this week. But I am thinking 12-3 AND correctly picking the APPY (for once) will suffice.

TOP 15 GAMES

GAME OF THE WEEK
1. #4 Ole Miss @ South Carolina (THURS) - It's not often the game of the week falls on Thursday but that's the case this week. Ole Miss comes in as a team with high expectations for 2009 and a team garnering lots of respect nationally, as seen by their rank. But they aren't getting a ton of respect because they're only favored by 3 points in this game. That's because South Carolina is much improved this season. After a 7-3 win/snorefest against NCST, the offense has woken up and scored 75 pts in the last two games. The defense hasn't been stellar but playing at home on a nationally televised game should handle that problem. I know the Gamecocks have been notorious for blowing games like this but I'm not seeing that this time. It's not very often I do this, but my game of the week is also my APPY pick. I'm going with SOUTH CAROLINA.

BEST OF THE REST
2. #9 Miami (FL) @ #11 Virginia Tech - So just how good are the Hurricanes? We're about to find out. They've gone from unranked to top 10 in 2 weeks,=. Their wins over FSU and Georgia Tech were impressive but this is their first real road test. VT is coming off an emotional win over Nebraska, in a game that saw QB Tyrod Taylor show he is capable of carrying this team when need be. But this VT has yet to play an offense and a QB like Jacory Harris. Miami (FL) has a ton of speed, which VT does not have. But I wouldn't dare pick against VT when they're at home. VIRGINIA TECH wins a close one, and the fall of the 'Canes begins.

3. Arkansas @ #3 Alabama - The Razorbacks couldn't beat Georgia so why do I think this game has any chance against the Tide? Here's why. Their offense is too good to keep from scoring 21 points at least. Bobby Petrino has that offense clicking and the Tide haven't had to play like that yet. Plus, Bama is coming off of two cupcakes in FIU and North Texas. That screams trouble to me. Arkansas will do everything they can to spring this upset while Alabama may come in not thinking that way. ALABAMA wins but not as easily as some may think.

4. #6 California @ Oregon - Talk about a big game for the Pac-10. In some ways, you have to think the conference is hoping for Cal to blow out Oregon, to prove they are among the nation's best. If Oregon wins, the Bears just go down as yet another Pac-10 team to fall on the road to an unranked conference foe. While the Bears are the clearly superior team, especially with Heisman hopeful (frontrunner?) Jahvid Best, one has to wonder if this is a trap game. Next week, Cal get their chance to take control of the Pac-10 race when they face USC in Berkeley. So how will it turn out? Gimme CALIFORNIA but I can faintly smell an upset.

5. Iowa @ #5 Penn State - It was just one year ago. The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions face Iowa. A win all put PSU just one game away from a perfect season and a probable berth in the BCS title game. But like every team that year (except Utah), the Nittany Lions lost and their title game dreams faded away. This year's team isn't nearly as talented as last year but they are out for revenge. Iowa has struggled out of the gate but you can bet they'll be ready for this Big Ten battle. Unlike last year though, this one is in State College, giving the Hawkeyes a slim shot of winning. I'll take PENN STATE in a rout.

6. #24 Washington @ Stanford - Don't get me wrong. The Huskies pulled off an amazing upset with their win over USC. But let's not forget, that was a banged-up USC team. Are the Huskies the 24th best team in the nation? I think not. Are they in the top half the Pac-10. I'm not so sure about that. What I do know is that as long as QB Jake Locker is under center, they have a chance in every game. That theory holds true for this game. Washington will have a chance but STANFORD will win.

7. #15 TCU @ Clemson - There's a lot of talk about Boise State being the BCS buster but don;t be surprised if TCU takes over that role. While Boise State's best games are behind them, TCU still has BYU and Utah on their schedule. So a win over a good Clemson team would do wonders for their national standing. Meanwhile, for Clemson, this would be a huge win. Not only because TCU is a ranked team, but because it moves them to 3-1 before they really get into the meat of their schedule. The confidence they could gain from this game could carry them to a great season in what is a mediocre ACC. So who wins this battle? CLEMSON in Death Valley.

8. #22 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech - UNC is off to a 3-0 start but they haven't really played anyone yet. That'll change once they face GT. Tech is coming off a loss to Miami (FL) in a game that exposed how awful their pass defense was. That's something UNC is going to have to take advantage of. The good news for the Tar Heels is that their rush defense is one of the best in the country, which may come in handy as they fact the GT triple option rush attack. Last year, UNC won 28-7 despite giving up 326 rush yards. UNC won't get that lucky this year. GEORGIA TECH bounces back and gets the win.

9. Illinois @ #13 Ohio State - The last time Illinois came to Columbus, they beat the then #1 Buckeyes. But last year in Champaign, OSU took down the Illini 30-20. But here's the stat to look at. OSU has outscored opponents 151-40 in their past 4 conference openers. Meanwhile, Illinois has lost 14 of its last 15 conference openers. That's a big warning sign. While both teams come in with tons of confidence after big wins last week, OHIO STATE is the more talented team. OHIO STATE 24, ILLINOIS 7

10. Texas Tech @ #17 Houston - Texas Tech gave QB Colt McCoy and Texas a bit of a scare last week in Austin. Now, they travel south to Houston to take on QB Case Keenum and the Cougars. The Red Raiders will have their work cut out for them, as Houston boasts an offense that likes to score points. The Red Raiders couldn't contain McCoy for 4 quarters and I don't think they can do the same to Keenum. Call me crazy but I'm picking HOUSTON to win by 10 or more.

11. Arizona State @ #21 Georgia - Talk about a game with a ton of question marks. ASU has played two incredibly inferior opponents en route to a 2-0 record. But now, the Sun Devils have to take on stiffer competition in UGA. Speaking of the Dawgs, their offense looks amazing, having scored 93 points in the last 2 games. But there's no way they can keep up that pace. Not to mention the defense, which was supposed to be the strong facet of this team, has been completely dreadful. Both teams are out to prove doubters wrong but only GEORGIA will be able to do that.

12. South Florida @ #18 Florida State - Last week, this game may have been in the top 5. But the season-ending injury to USF senior QB Matt Grothe changes that immensely. Grothe is what makes the Bulls offense go and has been one of the most successful QBs in college football the past four years. Now for the first time in 4 years, the offense is in the hands of another signal-caller. That spells trouble. Meanwhile, FSU comes in brimming with confidence after their beatdown of BYU. Don't be surprised to see that in this game, though I also wouldn't be surprised to see USF play a spirited game in response to Grothe's injury. FLORIDA STATE is my pick to win.

13. Fresno State @ #14 Cincinnati - As I said in my Week 3 recap post, there's a good chance Cincy could finish the regular season undefeated. The Big East isn;t the toughest ever, so getting through those 7 games is a possibility. But they also must take care of the non-conference games. They took down Oregon State in Corvallis last week. This week, they get an always-game Fresno State squad in Cincy. The Bearcats have been led all season by QB Tony Pike, who has been putting up ridiculous numbers. FSU has been willing to give up yards and points so expect Pike to add to his totals. CINCINNATI wins easily.

14. Notre Dame @ Purdue - Why doesn't ND just join the Big Ten already? For the third straight week, the Irish are taking on a Big Ten team. Two weeks ago, they lost on the road to Michigan. Last week, they narrowly defeated Michigan State at home. This time, they're back on the road but this time, they face an inferior Purdue team. Jimmy Clausen should be able to pick apart the Purdue defense that has given up 97 pts in 3 games. Plus, the Boilers are fresh off a loss to a MAC school in Northern Illinois. While this one could be close, I'm not seeing it that way. NOTRE DAME cruises to an easy victory.

15. Michigan State @ Wisconsin - Coming into this season, MSU was the pick to challenge OSU and PSU for the Big Ten title. Now, they are one loss away from falling to 1-3. The loss to CMU was uncalled for and the loss to ND was disappointing. But a loss to Wisconsin could be devastating for a team with such high expectations. Wisconsin comes in 3-0 but it hasn't been impressive. An 8-point win over Northern Illinois and an OT win over Fresno State don't exemplify a team that is in control. While I hate to pick against the Badgers in Madison, I'm picking MICHIGAN STATE because they are in "save our season" mode.

OTHER GAMES
Ohio @ Tennessee - Surprisingly, it's the Bobcats who come in with the better record at 2-1, including 2 wins in a row. The Cats had no problem with Cal-Poly but that was at Peden Stadium in front of 10,000. Now, they had to Rocky Top to face the Vols in front of 100,000+. Yikes. The Vols are coming off a decent performance against the Gators so they may be a bit banged up. Also, the weather forecast is supposed to be a bit sloppy, so expect a sloppy game. If that's the case, OU has a chance. UCLA came into Knoxville this season already and escaped with a win so it is possible. and one has to think Tennessee players are giving OU zero respect. I have no doubt OU will cover the spread (-23 to Tennessee) but the Vols defense will shut down the OU offense, giving TENNESSEE the victory. TENNESSEE 23, OHIO 10