2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 27

It's the final weekend in February. Hard to believe the season has gone so fast. But the best is yet to come. Championship Week. Selection Sunday. The First Four. And of course, those glorious 4 days of March Madness that paralyzes a nation's attention. Well, at least mine. So it won't be much longer everyone. All the fun that is March Madness is right around the corner.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Added 3 teams since last post and all deserve their inclusion. Colorado jumps in thanks to a quality win vs. Arizona. Indiana continues to lead the Big Ten and by avoiding the bad loss to Illinois can now breathe easy I think. And finally, how about Texas Tech?! The Red Raiders were left for dead about 4 weeks ago. But since then, they've rattled off big win after big win. And take a look at their RPI and SOS numbers and you'd be foolish to keep them out now. Well done Tubby Smith.

LOCKS (28): Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, Oregon, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Utah, Maryland, Duke, Iowa, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Purdue, Iowa State, Texas A+M, Dayton, Arizona, California, Texas, Indiana, Baylor, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence

AUTOS: A few changes here. Tulsa crushed Temple this past week so I'm making them the AAC champ. Also, Hofstra replaces UNC-Wilmington after beating them this week. Also, putting Princeton in the Ivy spot instead of Yale.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Tulsa, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - Hofstra, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Welcome back Vanderbilt to the group. No one truly dropped out but with Temple falling from the ranks of the AUTO and not up to snuff for this group, Vandy gets in. Lot of moveent as teams near the top of this list last week all lost (Pittsburgh, USC, Florida) while teams near the bottom got some nice wins (Wisconsin, Oregon State, Seton Hall).

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (15): Saint Joseph's, UConn, Wisconsin, South Carolina, USC, Oregon State, Florida, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Syracuse, VCU, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Alabama

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: It was fun while it lasted Washington but your bubble has burst. Another loss for the Huskies this past week. LSU lost as well and they are hanging on by a thread. When you're at the bottom of this list, every game feels like a must-win. Not many teams even on the bubble, which makes my job very easy. That is, until upsets happen in conference tournaments that have some AUTO teams in this group really be on the bubble.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (25): Saint Joseph's, UConn, Wisconsin, South Carolina, USC, Oregon State, Florida, Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Tulsa, VCU, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Butler, Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, George Washington, BYU, LSU

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (7), A-10 (4), Big East (4), American (2)

COMING IN: Vanderbilt, Hofstra, Princeton

GOING OUT: Temple, UNC-Wilmington, Yale

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday or Monday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 23

It's getting fun now. Games you're watching now have huge impacts on the field and on regular season conference races. It's like March Madness Light. But it's the reason why I love doing this. It's like that chess game that keeps sucking you in. So many different moves you can make.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: I thought for sure I would add someone to this group with every post. Guess not. No additions.

LOCKS (25): Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, Oregon, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Iowa, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Maryland, Utah, Duke, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Iowa State, Arizona, Purdue, Texas A+M, Dayton, California, Baylor, Texas, Providence



AUTOS: No change except in the WCC as Gonzaga is out and Saint Mary's is in.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Butler for now is out. Just not enough positive momentum. On the flip side, St. Bonaventure is in. Alabama falls a good bit with a bad loss while Texas Tech keeps on moving up, as does Indiana.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (18): Indiana, Pittsburgh, USC, Florida, Colorado, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's, UConn, South Carolina, VCU, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Alabama, Tulsa, Michigan, St. Bonaventure

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: This group just keeps on getting smaller. That makes my job very easy. It's 31 teams with 23 of them actually in my projected field (19 AT-LARGE and 4 AUTO). That leaves really just 8 teams on the outside looking in with a realistic shot and even a few of those teams aren't exactly knocking on the door. This could all change as teams make a run or other teams fall apart of course.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (31): Indiana, Pittsburgh, USC, Florida, Colorado, Texas Tech, Saint Joseph's, UConn, South Carolina, VCU, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Oregon State, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Alabama, Tulsa, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Butler, Saint Mary's, Temple, Gonzaga, Monmouth, George Washington, San Diego State, Cincinnati, BYU, Vanderbilt, LSU, Washington

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (6), A-10 (4), Big East (4), American (3)

COMING IN: Saint Mary's, St. Bonaventure

GOING OUT: Gonzaga, Butler

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday or Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 19

Need an example of just how volatile this college basketball season has been? The past 4 days should explain it. Iowa and Maryland lose on the road to awful Big Ten teams. North Carolina loses to a very short-handed Duke team on their home floor. Alabama and Texas Tech were left for dead 3 weeks ago and now both are making a late-season charge that commands your attention. And did I mention, we're just barely past the halfway point of February? It's going to be a wild few weeks until the conference tournaments begin. And I can't wait to see how it unfolds!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Expect with every new post that a new team gets in here. This time, we add 3 and for good reason. Texas well-deserving after a win vs. West Virginia. The Longhorns have been very close the last couple of posts. Also new to the group, Baylor. The Bears beat Iowa State and they've done enough. Also in, California thanks to their win at Washington.

LOCKS (25): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Xavier, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Maryland, Duke, West Virginia, Utah, Iowa State, Dayton, Purdue, Arizona, Texas, Texas A+M, California, Providence, Baylor



AUTOS: Just a couple changes as IPFW and Weber State come in.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - IPFW, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Down now to just 18 spots left in this group. Should be down to about 10 in a couple of weeks, depending on if these teams decide to get some big wins. Alabama and Texas Tech did and are new additions. Tulsa also gets in but barely. Big jump for Saint Joseph's with a great win vs. Dayton and a decent fall for South Carolina. Terrible loss to Missouri. Michigan also with a not-so-good loss at Ohio State.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (18): Florida, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Indiana, Syracuse, UConn, Oregon State, Texas Tech, VCU, Alabama, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Seton Hall, Michigan, Butler, Tulsa

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Well, the bad news for LSU, Vanderbilt and Washington is that they are no longer in my projected field. The good news is that their losses did not eliminate them completely. They now find themselves on the BUBBLE, which in mid-February is not the worst spot in the world. In March, it's no much fun.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (34): Florida, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph's, Indiana, Syracuse, UConn, Oregon State, Texas Tech, VCU, Alabama, Wisconsin, Wichita State, South Carolina, Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Michigan, Butler, Tulsa, Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Temple, San Diego State, LSU, George Washington, St. Bonaventure, BYU, Cincinnati, Florida State, Washington, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Kansas State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (3)

COMING IN:Texas Tech, Alabama, Tulsa

GOING OUT: LSU, Washington, Vanderbilt

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Monday or Tuesday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 15

27 days until Selection Sunday. That's right. We are inside of a month until the most intense 15 minutes of TV as teams find out their path to a potential NCAA Championship. And what a season it's been already. If the regular season is any indication, the conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments are going to be something special. Hope you are enjoying it as much as I am.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Time for some new blood. After holding off, I've added 5 new teams that were right on the cusp of making it anyways. All of them had wins during the week that were enough for me to make the call. So welcome them all.

LOCKS (22): Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, Maryland, Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan State, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Iowa State, Kentucky, Dayton, Duke, Utah, Purdue, Arizona, Providence, Texas A+M



AUTOS: Only one change as most of the leaders in the conference stayed on top.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Teams made some subtle moves but nothing too gigantic. Biggest win went to Wisconsin for beating Maryland on the road. They did move up a bit to get out of the final 4 spots in. Butler and Washington are back on the brink thanks to losses over the weekend. Florida State drops out for now after another loss.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Texas, California, Florida, Baylor, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Indiana, UConn, VCU, Michigan, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Vanderbilt, Washington, Seton Hall, Butler

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: There are some teams looking to knock the door over, which is great. Both Texas Tech and Alabama went on the road and beat teams that are very likely to make the tournament. Look out for both as the weeks go on. Beyond that, we say goodbye for now to Valpo, Kansas State, Arizona State and Georgetown, who all suffered losses during the weekend that was. Maybe they get back here. Maybe they don't.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (36): Texas, California, Florida, Baylor, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Indiana, UConn, VCU, Michigan, Wichita State, Saint Joseph's, Gonzaga, LSU, Vanderbilt, Washington, Seton Hall, Temple, Butler, Florida State, Texas Tech, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Monmouth, Cincinnati, Clemson, George Washington, San Diego State, Saint Mary's, Tulsa, BYU

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Pac-12 (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), SEC (7), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (2)

COMING IN: LSU

GOING OUT: Florida State

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday or Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

I don't remember another season that has been a great as this one. Seems like every day there is a great matchup between projected tournament teams on TV. And because there are so many, you're finding some decent movement in the projections even though we are a month away from Selection Sunday. It's also fun knowing there is no dominant team in college basketball season, meaning this tournament could truly be up for grabs right from the start. Just gotta get into the Dance first.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Time for some new blood. After holding off, I've added 5 new teams that were right on the cusp of making it anyways. All of them had wins during the week that were enough for me to make the call. So welcome them all.

LOCKS (20): Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Maryland, Iowa, Virginia, Xavier, Oregon, West Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Iowa State, Kentucky, Dayton, Texas A+M, Utah, Purdue, Providence



AUTOS: No changes from the last bracket.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Lot of moving and shaking here once again. Lot of bad losses but also some quality wins. Plus, 5 teams graduating. LSU drops out while Vanderbilt jumps in. Biggest mover was Florida State who is now close to the end of this group. Not a bad loss at Syracuse but after a closer look, they need some quality wins to feel a lot safer.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (23): Texas, Duke, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, USC, South Carolina, Oregon State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, UConn, Butler, VCU, Washington, St. Joseph's, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Congrats to Alabama, who with its win vs. Texas A+M finds a way into this group and under consideration for the tournament. Also to Kansas State, a team with a ton of losses but not one bad loss. It's an odd squad. Did lose a few teams like Georgia, UCLA and Stanford who simply aren't up to snuff. Other than that, this is a really mediocre group after the AT-LARGE group. But it's only mid-Februrary. Some of these teams are bound to make a move to the front.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (42): Texas, Duke, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, USC, South Carolina, Oregon State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, Wichita State, UConn, Butler, VCU, Washington, St. Joseph's, Gonzaga, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, LSU, Temple, Monmouth, George Washington, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, BYU, Alabama, Valparaiso, Kansas State, Arizona State, Georgetown

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), Pac-12 (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (2)

COMING IN: Vanderbilt

GOING OUT: LSU

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday or Monday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB