2012 NFL Predictions

Yep, that time of year where I put all my pride on the line and give a run at predicting the NFL season to come. I don't think I've picked a Super Bowl champion in the last 5 years or so and I expect nothing different this year.

I'm actually somewhat surprised by my pick because they mirror last year a bit too much. But maybe this is the year that the teams that excelled a year ago just keep it rolling.

As usual, I add in some fun stuff at the end, including coaches who I think will be fired this seasons and teams on the rise and decline.

AFC EAST
New England ----- 11-5
Buffalo ------------ 9-7
NY Jets ----------- 7-9
Miami ------------- 3-13

AFC NORTH
Baltimore --------- 12-4
Cincinnati --------- 10-6*
Pittsburgh --------- 9-7*
Cleveland --------- 2-14

AFC SOUTH
Houston ---------- 12-4
Indianapolis ------- 7-9
Tennessee --------- 6-10
Jacksonville ------- 4-12

AFC WEST
Denver ------------ 9-7
Kansas City ------- 8-8
San Diego --------- 8-8
Oakland ----------- 5-11

NFC EAST
Philadelphia -------- 12-4
NY Giants --------- 10-6*
Dallas --------------- 8-8
Washington --------- 4-12

NFC NORTH
Green Bay ----------- 13-3
Detroit --------------- 10-6*
Chicago -------------- 9-7
Minnesota ------------ 3-13

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta -------------- 12-4
New Orleans -------- 10-6
Carolina ------------- 7-9
Tampa Bay ---------- 6-10

NFC WEST
San Francisco -------- 11-5
Seattle ---------------- 8-8
St. Louis -------------- 6-10
Arizona --------------- 5-11

* = Wild Card team

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore over Houston

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlanta over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Baltimore over Atlanta

AWARDS
Offensive Rookie: Andrew Luck, IND
Defensive Rookie: Luke Kuechly, CAR
Offensive Player: Michael Vick, PHI
Defensive Player: Patrick Willis, SF
Coach: Andy Reid, PHI
MVP: Ray Rice, BAL

COACHES FIRED:
Lovie Smith, CHI
Norv Turner, SD
Rex Ryan, NYJ
Pat Shurmur, CLE
Ken Whisenhunt, AZ (in season)
Leslie Frazier, MIN (in season)
Jason Garrett, DAL

Teams on the rise:
BUF, CIN, IND, KC, CAR, SEA, STL

Teams on the decline:
NYJ, PIT, SD, ARZ

2012 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

We have come to the end everyone. No need for a lengthy intro. Just the facts.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS (42): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, West Virginia, UConn, Texas, Xavier, Colorado State

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Atlantic-10: St. Bonaventure, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville , Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Detroit, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - Colorado, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Davidson, Southland - Lamar, SWAC - Mississippi Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC -New Mexico State

AT-LARGE (5): California, South Florida, BYU, Seton Hall, NC State

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE (13): California, South Florida, BYU, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State, Drexel, Northwestern, Washington, Miami (FL), Arizona, Marshall, Iona

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), A-10 (4), MWC (4), SEC (4), WCC (3), C-USA (2)Pac-12 (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post after the brackets are announced later today (hopefully)

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Bubble Watch Special

No brackets or seeding today boys and girls. Instead, some good old-fashioned bubble breakdown. One day during Championship Week, I like to just post the credentials/resume of the teams that are on my bubble. This way, it gives you a chance to deicde for yourself who you think deserves those final few spots in the field.

As of the morning of Thursday, March 8th, I think there are 10 spots still in play and 19 teams fighting for those spots. Of course, as I write this, UConn is leading Syracuse and regardless of winning or losing this game, is likely in just because of the performance against one of the top 2 teams in the country and on a neutral court AND on their third day of playing basketball in a row.

So with that said, here they are: your candidates for the final at-large spots in the Barnes Bracketology field of 68.

Listed in alphabetical order (RPI rankings from ESPN.com)
SOS = strength of schedule

Arizona (21-10)
RPI: 79
SOS: 87
Non-Conf SOS: 131
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-8
Road W-L: 7-5
Quality Wins: @ California
Bad Losses: UCLA, Arizona State

Case FOR: Good road record, good overall record
Case AGAINST: Lot of bad RPI and SOS numbers, only one top-50 RPI win

California (23-8)
RPI: 37
SOS: 100
Non-Conf SOS: 80
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Road W-L: 5-6
Quality Wins: Oregon (x 2), @ Washington
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Washington State

Case FOR: Best RPI number of all Pac-12 teams, good overall record, RPI Top-100 wins solid
Case AGAINST: SOS is not good, quality wins are only in conference, and conference was weak.

Colorado State (18-10)
RPI: 20
SOS: 4
Non-Conf SOS: 26
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Road W-L: 3-9
Quality Wins: San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV
Bad Losses: TCU, Boise State

Case FOR: Great RPI and SOS numbers though they are misleading, good quality wins, not bad against RPI Top-100
Case AGAINST: Not a good road record, lots of losses, would be 4th team in Mountain West

Drexel (27-6)
RPI: 65
SOS: 249
Non-Conf SOS: 226
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50:1-2
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3
Road W-L: 11-3
Quality Wins: VCU
Bad Losses: Norfolk State, Georgia State, Delaware

Case FOR: Great overall record, won 25 of last 27 games, fantastic road record, not bad against top-100 in small sample
Case AGAINST: SOS is terrible, only one top-50 RPI win, bad losses are real black eyes

Iona (25-7)
RPI: 45
SOS: 156
Non-Conf SOS: 44
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-1
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-3
Road W-L: 11-4
Quality Wins: Nevada
Bad Losses: Fairfield, Manhattan (at home), Hofstra, Siena

Case FOR: Good RPI number, Played tough non-conference schedule, good road record, good vs. RPI top-100 when given chance
Case AGAINST: SOS is not good, not a real quality win, lots of bad losses

Long Beach State (20-8)
RPI: 35
SOS: 89
Non-Conf SOS: 1
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 0-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 2-7
Road W-L: 8-7
Quality Wins: Xavier
Bad Losses: Cal-State Fullerton

Case FOR: Solid RPI number, only one loss in conference play, played toughest non-conference schedule in the country
Case AGAINST: Didn't beat any of the top-50 RPI teams they played, bad loss to end conference play

Miami (FL) (18-11)
RPI: 51
SOS: 50
Non-Conf SOS: 129
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 3-10
Road W-L: 4-8
Quality Wins: @ Duke, Florida State
Bad Losses: Maryland, NC State (x 2)

Case FOR: Great win at Duke, Decent and SOS number
Case AGAINST: Lots of chances but not many wins against top competition, 2 losses to fellow bubble team NC State, non-conference schedule weak

Mississippi State (21-10)
RPI: 62
SOS: 76
Non-Conf SOS: 197
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Road W-L: 3-6
Quality Wins: West Virginia, Alabama, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Georgia (at home), Auburn

Case FOR: Good quality wins, good record vs. RPI Top 100
Case AGAINST: Awful non-conference schedule, RPI and SOS numbers not strong

NC State (20-11)
RPI: 52
SOS: 19
Non-Conf SOS: 16
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-8
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-9
Road W-L: 5-4
Quality Wins: Texas, Miami (FL) (x 2)
Bad Losses: Clemson, Georgia Tech (at home)

Case FOR: Great SOS and non-conference SOS numbers, decent RPI number, good road record, wins against fellow bubble teams
Case AGAINST: Only one top-50 RPI win despite numerous chances

Northwestern (18-12)
RPI: 44
SOS: 8
Non-Conf SOS: 51
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-10
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-12
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: Michigan State, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: None

Case FOR: Good RPI number, strong SOS number, 5 top-100 RPI wins, not one really bad loss
Case AGAINST: 11 chances against top-50 RPI teams and just one win

Oregon (22-8)
RPI: 49
SOS: 87
Non-Conf SOS: 116
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Road W-L: 7-4
Quality Wins: @ Arizona, Washington
Bad Losses: Oregon State (at home)

Case FOR: Decent RPI number, not bad against top-100 RPI
Case AGAINST: No real quality wins, did nothing in non-conference, overall SOS isn't great

Seton Hall (20-12)
RPI: 59
SOS: 49
Non-Conf SOS: 119
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: VCU, West Virginia, UConn, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Villanova, DePaul, Rutgers (at home)

Case FOR: 4 quality wins, SOS is good, not a bad record vs. RPI top-100
Case AGAINST: Did nothing really in non-conference, DePaul loss is a black eye, had a rough February and March

South Florida (20-12)
RPI: 43
SOS: 32
Non-Conf SOS: 33
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 1-9
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Road W-L: 5-8
Quality Wins: @ Louisville, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Old Dominion, Auburn, Penn State

Case FOR: Good RPI and SOS numbers, decent against RPI top-100, good Big East record (12-6)
Case AGAINST: 1 win in 10 chances against RPI top-50, 3 awful losses early in the season

Tennessee (18-13)
RPI: 75
SOS: 40
Non-Conf SOS: 165
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 7-9
Road W-L: 3-8
Quality Wins: Florida (x 2), UConn, Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Oakland, Charleston, Georgia, Austin Peay (at home)

Case FOR: SOS is pretty good, great quality wins including sweep of Florida
Case AGAINST: RPI number not good, played weak non-conference schedule, a lot of bad losses

Texas (19-12)
RPI: 50
SOS: 20
Non-Conf SOS: 93
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 4-10
Road W-L: 4-7
Quality Wins: Temple, Iowa State, Kansas State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Oklahoma State

Case FOR: Decent RPI, good SOS, 3 very good quality wins
Case AGAINST: Non-conference SOS not amazing, lots of chances for big wins and not a lot of wins

UConn (20-12)
RPI: 33
SOS: 3
Non-Conf SOS: 11
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 6-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 10-10
Road W-L: 3-7
Quality Wins: Florida State, Harvard, @ South Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, @ West Virginia
Bad Losses: Rutgers, Providence

Case FOR: Good RPI and SOS numbers, 6 top-50 RPI wins
Case AGAINST: Did not have a good February with Jim Calhoun not on sidelines

Xavier (19-11)
RPI: 55
SOS: 52
Non-Conf SOS: 60
Wins. vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Wins vs. RPI Top 100: 6-10
Road W-L: 5-7
Quality Wins: @ Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Hawaii

Case FOR: 3 good quality wins, decent RPI and SOS numbers, not bad on the road
Case AGAINST: 6-10 against the top-100 isn't amazing, didn't beat the best teams in their own conference

So now you see what I see. Who should be in and who should be out? I'll have my latest thoughts tomorrow complete with a new bracket. Until then, GO BOBCATS!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 7

And then there were 5...days that is until Selection Sunday. And the trend that began over the weekend continued yesterday as bubble teams continue to be spared by bid-stealers. That makes my job harder as a "bracketologist" but hey, I'm a big boy. I can deal with it.

Today, there are 6 games that will have an impact on the bracket, including 3 in the Big East tournament so going to be another night of chances for teams to lock up their spot...or not.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: Nothing new to report here again sadly. The more names here, the easier it is for me but Seton Hall and UConn's wins over the bottom-feeders of the Big East aren't enough to have them ascend here yet.

LOCKS (38): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Cincinnati, West Virginia

AUTOS: Congrats to 15-18 Western Kentucky for turning around what was an awful season into a trip to the Big Dance. With that said, you've also clinched a trip to Dayton and the First Four. Have fun. Congrats also goes out to Harvard, who backed into its automatic bid thanks to a Penn loss last night, South Dakota State, who took down Western Illinois to win the Summit, and Detroit, who beat Valpo on their home court to give the Titans a spot in the Big Dance.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Detroit, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Seton Hall and UConn won yesterday in the Big East tournament. But the wins came against no one special. UConn did move up one spot just because they looked impressive. If they win today or at least look competitive vs. West Virginia, they'll be in decent shape to get in.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (10): Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, UConn ,Washington

BUBBLE WATCH

Well, Harvard is no longer a BUBBLE team thanks to their automatic bid so we now have 19 teams fighting for what I think is 10 spots still up for grabs in the field. This will be a fluid situation as we get into these conference tournaments.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (19): Colorado State, California, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, Long Beach State, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, UConn, Washington, Texas, Drexel, NC State, Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Iona

SEEDING

Only changes made involve replacing teams with the team that actually won that conference. Look for more drastic changes tomorrow after the games tonight and I do my annual Bubble Watch post that tends to make me re-think the entire field and shuffle things around a bit.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
Western Kentucky, Detroit

MOVING OUT
North Texas, Valparaiso

MOVING UP
None

MOVING DOWN
None

GAMES TO WATCH

WEDNESDAY
UConn vs. West Virginia (Big East Quarterfinals) - UConn gets in the tournament with this win. They may even get in with a loss, but they must look good losing.
Seton Hall vs. Louisville (Big East Quarterfinals) - Seton Hall may be in already but I'm not so sure yet. A win over the Cardinals would do it.
Villanova vs. South Florida (Big East Quarterfinals) - This does not qualify as a good win for USF. It does qualify as a bad loss, and one that may keep them out of the tourney.

Robert Morris vs. LIU-Brooklyn (Northeast Championship) - LIU-Brooklyn is the better team but Robert Morris has been in this position more recently.
Lehigh vs. Bucknell (Patriot Championship) - Bucknell has been there, done that. I expect to win and then promptly lose in the NCAA tournament again.
Weber State vs. Montana (Big Sky Championship) - Weber State should win and if they do, that's not a 13-15 seed I want to face in the second round.

Again, look for a bubble watch special either later today or Thursday as I break down what makes each worthy or unworthy of making the field. Until then, enjoy the games today and tonight and check back here soon!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Mar. 6

If you missed the 4 conference championship games, I'm sorry for you. There were 4 amazing finals. All 4 games came down to the final minute. 2 games went to overtime. It was just thrilling TV and more importantly, just an appetizer for the Madness still to come this week and in the NCAA Tournament.

Again, updated this blog daily so don't expect a ton of changes like when I update every 3-4 days. These will be more subtle changes but very important ones as we get closer to Selection Sunday when I have my finalized bracket.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: No new names here as expected as all teams in play last night either had a bid locked up or had no chance of getting in this group with a win.

LOCKS (38): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Alabama, Cincinnati, West Virginia

AUTOS: Decent amount of changes here. First off, the big one which is VCU beating Drexel, earning the Rams a ticket to the Big Dance. The other changes involve upsets in conference tournament semifinals. Oral Roberts is out in the Summit and Denver is out in the Sun Belt. They have been replaced. Also, Loyola (MD) and Davidson are in for sure thanks to hard-fought wins last night.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (20): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Loyola (MD), MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Nothing new here as well as none of the ten teams in this category were in action.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (10): Colorado State, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn

BUBBLE WATCH

VCU is a bubble team no more so this group now is down to 20 teams going for 10 teams. Drexel did lose yesterday but did no harm to themselves with the loss. Not only did they lose to a fellow BUBBLE team, but they played them well from start to finish. Don't be surprised to see them sneak into my projections with some losses from teams in front of them in the week ahead.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (20): Colorado State, Harvard, California, Seton Hall, Miami (FL), BYU, Xavier, Long Beach State, South Florida, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Washington, UConn, Texas, Drexel, NC State, Tennessee, Arizona, Oregon, Iona

SEEDING

All the changes involved teams 13 or lower so nothing big. Just some subtle shifting to include the new teams.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
VCU, North Texas, South Dakota State

MOVING OUT
Drexel, Denver, Oral Roberts

MOVING UP
Davidson (14 to 13), LIU-Brooklyn (16 to 15)

MOVING DOWN
None

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY
DePaul vs. UConn (Big East 1st Round) - A must-win for UConn. They got back on track on Saturday vs. Pitt. A loss here seals their NIT fate I think.
Providence vs. Seton Hall (Big East 1 st Round) - I think Seton Hall is safe with a win over Providence. Been a sloppy spring to the end by the Pirates though.
Western Kentucky vs. North Texas (Sun Belt Championship) - WKU is under .500 and made a coaching change halfway through the season. North Texas is barely above .500. Winner gets a spot in the First Four in Dayton.
Western Illinois vs. South Dakota State (Summit Championship) - South Dakota State is a good team and won't be an easy out in the NCAA tournament, if they get there.
Detroit vs. Valparaiso (Horizon Championship) - What a season this has been for Valpo, led by Bryce Drew. If they win, he could possibly face brother Scott and Baylor in the NCAA tourney.

These 5 games could have a big bearing on the seeding so make sure you check back tomorrow. Expect a bubble special on Wednesday as I break down the contenders and what each need to get in.

MB