2012 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 27

I can't believe it but we are now less than 2 weeks from Selection Sunday. And that means just 2 weeks left for a good number of teams to state their case to the committee that they are worthy of an at-large selection or take their fate out of the committee's hands and just win their conference tournament. either way, makes my job easier.

As of now, a lot of the teams are making my job tougher by actually losing instead of winning. If some of these teams on the bubble would just get a quality win, it would be great but alas, not to be this past weekend for many of them.

Championship Week is not officially until next week but this week, a few conferences do begin their conference tournaments so these next two weeks are going to be a lot of fun. Hope you keep checking back here for my latest projections!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: I gave about 4 teams the chance to move into this category with some kind of signature victory. Well, 2 teams took advantage of that, adding that quality win onto what was already a pretty solid resume. Purdue is now a LOCK after a pretty dominating road win at Michigan. Also, Iowa State is now a LOCK thanks to their win at Kansas State. The Cyclones were simply lacking that one win that could turn heads and this qualifies.

LOCKS (32): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico, Purdue, Iowa State

AUTOS: As I stated above, with the conference tournaments tipping off this week, expect numerous changes to this section as some of my projected winners of these smaller conferences to be upset and be replaced by either the champion or someone I think will eventually win the tournament. I did not make one switch to the teams here, replacing Akron with Ohio in the MAC. Simply put, Ohio is playing great basketball right now and after beating Akron by 24 Sunday night, I think Ohio is now the team to beat in the MAC tournament next week. And that's with no bias (but plenty of hope and love for the Bobcats)

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Ohio, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Good for Purdue and Iowa State in seizing the opportunity to escape this group and moving up to the LOCKS category. Other than those 2, 7 of the other 17 teams in this group last week lost their games, which again, is not the best way to prove you are worthy of this spot. South Florida does join this group after an important win against Cincinnati over the weekend. It's not a signature win but it's one that at least gets them in the field....for now. The team that dropped out is Mississippi State, who has now lost 5 games in a row. Typical Miss. State Bulldog collapse in February.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (15): Southern Miss, Seton Hall, Alabama, Saint Louis, Washington, Cincinnati, BYU, Xavier, Arizona, Miami (FL), South Florida, West Virginia, Northwestern, UConn, Colorado State

BUBBLE WATCH

No bubbles burst this week. In fact, I've added three teams into the Bubble Watch. St. Joseph's is back in after their upset of Temple, breathing back some life into their resume. Also, added VCU to the list after beating George Mason and Colorado for a good home win against California. No real quality wins for VCU but who knows how things will turn out. Teams like Saint Louis (L vs. Rhode Island), West Virginia (L vs. Marquette), UConn (L vs. Syracuse), and Colorado State (L vs. San Diego State) all continue to miss opportunities to either get off the bubble or at least feel better about their place. Instead, they are still here and that's not a good thing.

Again, these are in order so the teams near the end are barely hanging on to hope as of now.

BUBBLE (31): Memphis, Southern Miss, Seton Hall, Alabama, Harvard, Saint Louis, California, Long Beach State, Washington, Cincinnati, BYU, Xavier, Arizona, Miami (FL), South Florida, West Virginia, Northwestern, UConn, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Texas, St. Joseph's, Iona, Drexel, VCU, Colorado, UCF, Oregon, NC State, Illinois, UMass

SEEDING

The 1 seeds are the same from the Thursday update but the 2 seeds are not. Marquette moves up while Ohio State moves down. Meanwhile, Georgetown moves back up to a 3 seed while Michigan falls to a 4 seed. Other than that, not too much moving and shaking as far as seeding. Lots of shifting with teams in regions to accommodate other moves but all in all, nothing too crazy.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (10), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), Pac-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2),

(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
South Florida, Ohio

MOVING OUT
Mississippi State, Akron

MOVING UP
Marquette (3 to 2), Georgetown (4 to 3), Indiana (7 to 6), Purdue (10 to 8), Iowa State (9 to 8), Southern Miss (10 to 9), Washington (12 to 10), Xavier (12 to 11), Colorado State (13 to 12)

MOVING DOWN
Ohio State (2 to 3), Michigan (3 to 4), Harvard (8 to 9), California (8 to 9), Seton Hall (9 to 10), West Virginia (10 to 12), UConn (12 to 13)

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Kansas @ Oklahoma State - KU should roll in this one but if they don't, forget the 1 seed that they have in their sights with just one loss by anyone on that top line.
Notre Dame @ Georgetown - The Irish need to recover from that stumble to St. John's. Georgetown's high water mark is a 3 seed I think for now.

TUESDAY
Duke @ Wake Forest - Duke should win this game easily. An upset though sees them fall to a 2 seed.
Michigan State @ Indiana - If MSU loses, they could lose the 1 seed they are in now. All depends on the nature of the loss. A win clinches Big Ten Tourney top seed.
Florida @ Vanderbilt - Still shocked the Gators got beat by 14 to Georgia. Yikes. Vandy won't be easy. Could have an impact on seeding for both teams.
DePaul @ West Virginia - Memo for the Mountaineers: You simply CANNOT lose this game and feel good on Selection Sunday. That is all.
UConn @ Providence - Providence is scrappy and won't fall over for UConn. Too bad cause the Huskies can't afford to lose anymore, especially to an inferior team.
Xavier @ Saint Louis - A good 'ol bubble battle in late February. Love it. Winner does themselves a lot of good. Loser keeps biting those nails.
UCF @ Memphis - With a Memphis win, they'll be a LOCK. UCF beat the Tigers in Orlando. A sweep would do them some good for their chances.

WEDNESDAY
Iowa State @ Missouri - Mizzou's losing streak needs to end at 2 but Iowa State will come in with guns-a-blazing as they try to solidify that spot I think they have earned.
Ohio State @ Northwestern - Northwestern had their chance last week vs. Michigan and lost it in OT. They probably have to win this one and still win 2 in the Big Ten tourney.
Marquette @ Cincinnati - If Cincinnati can pull off this win at home, they'll be a LOCK. The only reason they aren't now is that awful non-conference strength of schedule.
South Florida @ Louisville - The Cardinals have proven they are capable of losing at home. Good news for USF, who needs another big win to add to that resume.
UNLV @ Colorado State - Colorado State beat New Mexico but not San Diego State. That's okay. Beat UNLV and as they say, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.
UMass @ Temple - Whatever hope UMass has at getting in the tournament hinges on this game with Temple. Lose and the bubble is burst.
St. Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure - St. Joe's would move to 4th in the A-10 with this win. That's big considering the 3 teams in front of them are in my bracket currently.
Auburn @ Alabama - Not the same rivalry on the hardwood unfortunately. Alabama can't lose this game. It would 3 steps backwards.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina - MSU has lost 5 games in a row. When will it stop? Better stop here or else...
Miami (FL) @ NC State - Another bubble battle. A win for Miami (FL) may be enough as we head down the stretch. NC State needs this win to just keep bubble floating.
Oklahoma @ Texas - The Longhorns held on to beat Texas Tech barely. Now they must avoid another bad loss against the Sooners.

THURSDAY
Michigan @ Illinois - The Illini are livin' on a prayer. They just won their first game in the month of February on Sunday. That's pathetic.
Florida State @ Virginia - Nothing but seeding implications here as both teams look to get as high a seed as possible.
Washington @ USC - The Huskies are trending upwards. A loss at USC would end that trend quickly.
Colorado @ Oregon - Both teams need this win and then need a couple more in the tournament to really have a shot for an at-large I think.

Alright everyone, that's the latest update. As you can see above, lots of big games over the next 4 days that will have some sort of impact on the bracket. Again, if you have any comments, let me know. If you see any mistakes, let me know. I appreciate you reading this and because it worked well last week, I will end the post the same way I ended the last one: GO BOBCATS!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 24

As expected, a great 4 days of games on paper turned into great games on the court. A lot of big wins for teams that were really craving them as well as some bad losses by teams that couldn't afford them. It's all apart of the February Frenzy before the March Madness.

From here on, I plan to do mid-week updates like this one. This way, you can really see the movement a team goes through with just one win or loss. You'll notice that in this post as we have a new #1 seed and a new team in the field of 68 thanks to a quality victory. So here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: I mentioned in the last post that there was an opportunity for a good amount of teams to move into this section. Well that has occurred. Kansas State beat projected #1 seed Missouri. Temple and Vanderbilt avoided adding an embarrassing loss to an impressive resume. Gonzaga beat a good BYU squad. And while Indiana beat a real cupcake in North Carolina Central and New Mexico lost to Colorado State, after going through the AT-LARGE teams, those 2 are simply just a cut above. So 6 new names in this category, meaning these 30 teams are free to schedule their NCAA watch parties on Selection Sunday.

LOCKS (30): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame, Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Indiana, New Mexico

AUTOS: With Temple moving into the LOCK category, they are no longer here so we're down to 21 teams getting into their field by just their conference championship alone. I did make one change among this group though, which is Memphis replacing Southern Miss. The Eagles have lost 2 bad ones in a row, so for now, they have to worry about getting in the AT-LARGE route. This time next week, we may have a few of these teams in bold, meaning they have won their conference tournament and are in for sure.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: These past 4 days have really helped and really hurt some teams. For example, Seton Hall is very close now to becoming a LOCK after an 18-point home victory over Georgetown and Colorado State jumps in thanks to that big home win over New Mexico. On the flip side, Texas' loss to Baylor, Northwestern's loss to Michigan and Miami (FL) loss to Maryland have them falling further from the projected field. We're down to just 15 spots here and it will only get smaller if one of the AUTO teams like Harvard or Memphis don't win their conference tourney, stealing a bid from one of these teams.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (17): Seton Hall, Saint Louis, Southern Miss, Purdue, Iowa State, West Virginia, Alabama, Cincinnati, Miss. State, BYU, UConn, Xavier, Arizona, Washington, Colorado State, Northwestern, Miami (FL)

BUBBLE WATCH

I really hate bursting bubbles but teams are forcing my hand with terrible losses when it matters the most. Arkansas has now dropped 4 of its last 5 and is out. Colorado was hanging on but then lost by 24 at home to Stanford. Yikes. George Mason lost to Northeastern and St. Joseph's lost to Richmond. Ouch. So consider them gone too. They could resurface but for now, we're down to 30 in this group when you consider the teams promoted to LOCKS and the teams demoted to well, the NIT. Again, these are in order from safe to not so safe.

BUBBLE (30): Seton Hall, Harvard, Saint Louis, California, Memphis, Southern Miss, Purdue, Iowa State, West Virginia, Alabama, Cincinnati, Miss. State, Long Beach State, BYU, UConn, Xavier, Arizona, Washington, Colorado State, Northwestern, Miami (FL), Texas, South Florida, NC State, UMass, Drexel, Illinois, Oregon, Iona, UCF

SEEDING

Not too many drastic shifts in the seeding. Maybe a move up or down one seed becaus eof a win or loss or just for the sake of putting the bracket together. The biggest move is moving Duke to a #1 seed and dropping Missouri to a #2. The other "big" move is moving Michigan up to a #3 seed, which is well-deserved for the third best team in the tough Big Ten. Georgetown drops to a #4 seed after that lopsided loss at Seton Hall. Long Beach State jumps up to a #11 seed as these other bubble teams prove they aren't worthy of being than the 49ers.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (4), Pac-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2),


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

MOVING IN
Colorado State

MOVING OUT
Texas

MOVING UP
Duke (2 to 1), Michigan (3 to 2), Temple (7 to 6), Gonzaga (8 to 7), Kansas State (9 to 8), California (9 to 8), Seton Hall (10 to 9), Iowa State (10 to 9), Purdue (11 to 10), Alabama (11 to 10), Long Beach State (13 to 11), Cincinnati (12 to 11), Middle Tennessee (15 to 14)

MOVING DOWN
Missouri (1 to 2), Georgetown (3 to 4), St. Mary's (7 to 6), New Mexico (7 to 8), Southern Miss (8 to 10), West Virginia (8 to 10), Miss. State (10 to 11), BYU (10 to 11), Xavier (11 to 12), Miami (FL) (11 to 12), UConn (11 to 12), Northwestern (12 to 13), Valparaiso (14 to 15)

GAMES TO WATCH

FRIDAY
Marquette @ West Virginia - The Mountaineers need this win badly to stop the bleeding. Their strength of schedule can only get them so far. Wins go much further.

SATURDAY
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky - Both teams are safely in but if Vandy could pull off the upset, we'd see a move in the top overall seed.
Syracuse @ UConn - The more and more I watch UConn, they don't look like a tournament team. A win here would change my mind.
Missouri @ Kansas - Winner here moves into that prime spot of best #2 seed and will claim the next #1 seed should one fall anytime soon.
North Carolina @ Virginia - The #1 seed dreams for UNC are not gone but could be with this loss.
Purdue @ Michigan - Not a must-have for the Boilers but if they can get the road win at Ann Arbor, they may just lock up their spot.
Colorado State @ San Diego State - SDSU is fine but Colo. State is not. They could pull off what New Mexico did last week in getting 2 huge wins and propelling themselves into the field.
Iowa State @ Kansas State - Much bigger game for ISU than KSU. I think the Wildcats are a LOCK now. Iowa State might be with a road win.
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island - The kind of game a team like Saint Louis can't lose if they want to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.
NC State @ Clemson - NC State had to play Duke, FSU and UNC and came up 0-3. This is not a big win for them but they just need a win in general right now.
Memphis @ Marshall - Memphis is close to being a LOCK. Marshall is a good team too so a win in Huntington moves them even closer.
Mississippi State @ Alabama - Is this one of those dreaded play-out games? Might just be. Gotta think this means more for Alabama than Miss. State.
Richmond @ Xavier - Richmond just took down St. Joseph's and burst their bubble. They could do the same to Xavier if they win at the Cintas Center.
Northwestern @ Penn State - The Wildcats cannot, I repeat, CANNOT, lose to the Nittany Lions if they want to keep their AT-LARGE hopes alive.

SUNDAY
Wisconsin @ Ohio State - OSU is still looking to get back to that #1 seed line. Gotta win here to keep pace with MSU.
Florida State @ Miami (FL) - The 'Canes have to add more than just a win at Duke on their resume. This win at home would do wonders for their chances.
Cincinnati @ South Florida - The Bearcats are safer but not safe after beating Louisville Thursday. USF still lacks a great win. This is a good win that would help their cause.
California @ Colorado - Might be safe to say that with a road win against what will be a desperate Colorado team may be enough to lock up a spot for the Bears.
Iowa @ Illinois - Iowa has been a giant killer all year long. They could kill any tourney hopes for Illinois with a win in Champaign Sunday.

That's it for this latest edition of Barnes Bracketology. I'll have this updated after the weekend's action so look for the update on Monday. Enjoy the basketball this weekend as well as the Daytona 500 and the Oscars! And because I can, don't forget Ohio takes on Akron in a crucial MAC contest on Sunday at 8pm. GO BOBCATS!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology: Feb. 20

Well, my goal of writing a mid-week update was not reached. Apologies for that. But from here on out, pending something crazy, there will be a Thursday/Friday update to the projections. That is so you can really see the movement that takes place as we get closer to Selection Sunday.

Speaking of that, plenty of movement after this past week's games. Teams moving around the bracket, getting higher or lower seeds. Others find themselves in or out of the bracket. And we're still 3 weeks away from Selection Sunday! So these next two weeks of the regular season are going to be just as huge as Championship Week, in terms of improving the resume and impressing the committee at this late stage.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: After a week's worth of games, just one addition here as Notre Dame won two games this past week to firm up its spot in the field. Other teams had their chances to also join this group. Indiana though lost at Iowa, Gonzaga lost to San Fran and Southern Miss lost to Houston. All are in great shape to get in the tournament but to call them a LOCK right now still seems a bit premature to me without at least another victory to prove the previous loss was nothing more than a fluke. So we're up to 24 teams safely in.

LOCKS (24): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State, Notre Dame

AUTOS: Some subtle changes here as some of the games this past week made me change my mind about who might win the conference tournaments in the next few weeks. Look for those changes in the italics. Again, this is the toughest group to predict because I'm simply not going to extensive research on a lot of these teams that are highly unlikely to win more than 2 games in the tournament or receive higher than a 12 seed come Selection Sunday.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - Drexel, Conference USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Savannah State, , Northeast -LIU-Brooklyn, Pac-12 - California, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: Lots of movement here as lots of teams had bad weeks. I mentioned a few up top as teams that are still in good standing suffered some pretty bad losses. But others like NC State, Illinois, and Miss. State really hurt themselves with two losses last week. Others though had great weeks like New Mexico, who had 2 wins over teams in the LOCKS category. So they moved up considerably from where they were and are very close to becoming a LOCK themselves.

Reminder that the last four teams in this category will compete in the "First Four" games.

AT-LARGE (22): Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Indiana, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Saint Louis, Kansas State, Seton Hall, Memphis, Purdue, Iowa State, Miss. State, Xavier, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL), UConn, Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona, Northwestern, Texas

BUBBLE WATCH

A lot of bubbles burst this past week. Teams like Ole Miss, VCU, Wyoming, Pittsburgh and Minnesota are gone from the watch list due to losses suffered last week. Now that's not to say they can't re-enter but for now, consider them as good as gone from the field unless they win their conference tournament. There was one new entry in St. Joseph's, who is still not that close but worthy of inclusion in this list. This time, this in in order. Again, you will see teams from the AUTO category in here. That is because they are BUBBLE teams if they do not win their conference tourney.

BUBBLE (39): Temple, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Indiana, Gonzaga, Southern Miss, West Virginia, Harvard, Saint Louis, Kansas State, California, Seton Hall, Memphis, Purdue, Iowa State, Miss. State, Xavier, Alabama, BYU, Miami (FL), Long Beach State, UConn, Cincinnati, Washington, Arizona, Northwestern, Texas, NC State, Colorado State, Illinois, Drexel, Sotuh Florida, UCF, Arkansas, Colorado, UMass, Oregon, St. Joseph's, George Mason

SEEDING

The seeding is always a bit easier after the first post. The first one took me about 90 minutes. This time, it took about 25 minutes. Once you get a feel of where teams should be, you can easily raise or drop them one or two spots with a win or loss. Plus, you start to remember what teams can;t play others because of regular season matchups earlier in the year. No real drastic changes. Ohio State falls out of the 1 seed and fellow Big Ten team Michigan State jumps in. Wichita State is up to a 4 seed. New Mexico jumped up to a 7 seed after its impressive week, beating UNLV and San Diego State, who both fell from a 4 seed to a 5 seed.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2),


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Now in future posts, I will post the records of the teams here but this time, just the bracket.

GAMES TO WATCH

MONDAY
Baylor @ Texas - The 'Horns could really use this win to pad their weak resume. It's on their home court too, so this is the best chance they may get at a signature victory.
UConn @ Villanova - This is not a good Villanova team so UConn cannot afford to trip up here. Need to get back to winning and soon.


TUESDAY
Kentucky @ Mississippi State - The Wildcats have mastered these road tests all year except Indiana. The Bulldogs would do wonders for their chances with an upset here.
Kansas State @ Missouri - If Kansas State pulls off this upset, put them in the field after beating Baylor on Saturday in Waco. Tigers just trying to hold on that 1 seed.
Illinois @ Ohio State - The Illini are trying to stop a freefall from somewhat safe to not in the field at all. The Bucks hope to stay in the race for that final 1 seed.
North Carolina @ NC State - NC State had two chances for signature wins last week and blew them both, especially at Duke. They get a third chance on this night.
Georgetown @ Seton Hall - Seton Hall really needs this one. Their resume isn't great so one more quality win could do a lot of good for the Pirates.
Michigan @ Northwestern - Is this a must-win at home for the Wildcats? I'd say so with only Ohio State left on the schedule to give them a quality win after this.
Xavier @ UMass - UMass is really living on a prayer whereas Xavier is in...for now. A good road win here would help ease some fears in Cincy.
Miami (FL) @ Maryland - When making a run at the tourney field like the Hurricanes, losing to a team like Maryland, home or away, is not acceptable. Plain and simple.
New Mexico @ Colorado State - If New Mexico can make if 3 for 3 against the best teams in the Mountain West, they are a LOCK for sure. Colorado State may see their bubble burst with a loss.

WEDNESDAY
South Florida @ Syracuse - I don't expect USF to win but if they happen to, they finally get that huge win they need to get some respect and possibly, get into the field.
Michigan State @ Minnesota - Beware the Gophers at the barn. They are playing for their tournament lives and MSU is playing to keep that 1 seed.
West Virginia @ Notre Dame - Love when these two teams meet up. Notre Dame has been hot and it shows in the projections. WV could lock up their spot with a good win.
Nebraska @ Purdue - The Boilers are the better team and with this being at Mackey Arena, there's no way they lose. But if they do, yikes.
Temple @ LaSalle - LaSalle is a good team so if Temple can go on the road and beat them, they'll be a LOCK next time I post.
Southern Miss @ UTEP - UTEP took down Memphis last week so they are no pushover. Southern Miss is coming off a loss and need to stop the bleeding.

THURSDAY
Duke @ Florida State - Seminoles won the first matchup in Durham. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same result in Tallahassee. It would end the 1-seed hopes for the Devils.
Murray State @ Tennessee State - Murray State goes on the road to avenge its only loss of the season. A loss brings more worry to their camp.
Louisville @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats need this one bad. Their non-conference schedule is what's keeping them back right now, not their talent.
BYU @ Gonzaga - BYU really could use this victory to feel better about its chances. The Zags could all but lock up their spot with a big win at home.
Alabama @ Arkansas - This SEC bubble matchup has real disappointment written all over it for one squad. Lots of eyes will be on this one.

That's all for now. I'll update this hopefully Thursday night. If not, look for it Friday night. Lots of great games so enjoy the week ahead and make sure you check back to see where your favorite team(s) lands in Barnes Bracketology!

MB

2012 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

It's that time once again. The Super Bowl is over. The NBA hasn't caught my full attention yet. The Blue Jackets are not in the playoff race (again). And the NFL Draft isn't until April. That means there's only one thing to do: Barnes Bracketology.

If this is your first time checking this out, welcome. I have been doing this now for 4 years and each and every year, I like to think I get a little better at it. Last year, I correctly predicted 67 of the 68 teams (I left out VCU ironically in favor of Virginia Tech). This year, I'm hoping to get all 68 for the first time in my 4 years.

My goal is to update this twice a week in February and probably a bit more come March as we get close to Selection Sunday. I have read the NCAA Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket and will conform by their rules when creating my projected brackets. It can sometimes be very tough to do but hey, that's what I signed up for.

I love any and all feedback on my projections, good or bad. I especially appreciate letting me know of any glaring errors. Many times, I try to do this late at night after work so mistakes will happen. With that said, here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes from previous projection in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for teams that whether they win their conference tournament or not, are going to receive a bid to the tournament. With Selection Sunday 5 weeks away, this list may seem short but it needs to be. I do my best to not move teams in this category. If you're a lock, you are a LOCK. As the games go on, you will see teams added to this list. But for now, this is the list and in no particular order. It kind of goes by conference now but as teams get added, they will just go to the end of this list.

LOCKS (23): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Creighton, Wichita State, San Diego State, UNLV, Kentucky, Florida, St. Mary's, Murray State

AUTOS: This group is for those teams that will receive their bid by winning their conference tournament. Now this is a tough one to predict as I clearly do not have knowledge of who is going to ultimately win the smaller conferences' tournaments. So what I do normally is just go with the team with the best record in the conference when I make a bracket. Once the conference tournaments get going, this will change a ton as favorites fall. Some will move to the AT-LARGE section, others will stay in the BUBBLE section, and others will never be seen again.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic-10 - Temple, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Long Beach State, Colonial - VCU, Conference USA - Southern Miss, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Harvard, MAAC - Iona, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Norfolk State, , Northeast -Wagner, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Davidson, Southland - UT-Arlington, SWAC - Miss. Valley State, Summit - Oral Roberts, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee, WAC - Nevada

AT-LARGE: This group is obviously for the teams I think are going to make the field by earning an AT-LARGE bid. This is in order but beware, these will fluctuate quite often as I continue to get a handle on these teams. Again, these are in order from feeling safe to not feeling so safe. Also, remember the last 4 teams in this category will be playing in the 2 "First Four" games to earn a spot in the now-named second round.

AT-LARGE (23): Indiana, Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, California, Illinois, New Mexico, West Virginia, Saint Louis, Kansas State, Alabama, Purdue, Iowa State, UConn, Texas, Xavier, Miami (FL), BYU, NC State, Arizona, Cincinnati

BUBBLE WATCH

Now, the way the BUBBLE works is fairly simple. These are the teams that will be worrying come Selection Sunday. Every team in the AT-LARGE category will be in here as well because they are not guaranteed a spot, but instead just in my projected bracket. Some AUTOS will be here as well as they will become BUBBLE teams if they happen to not win their conference tournaments as they are expected to. As we get closer, I will put these in order so you have an idea of who just missed the cut but this time, I will just list them.

BUBBLE (47): Indiana, Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, California, Illinois, New Mexico, West Virginia, Saint Louis, Kansas State, Alabama, Purdue, Iowa State, UConn, Texas, Xavier, Miami (FL), BYU, NC State, Arizona, Cincinnati, Temple, Long Beach State, Southern Miss, Cleveland State, Valparaiso, Harvard, Washington, Davidson, Nevada, VCU, UMass, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Minnesota, Northwestern, Drexel, George Mason, UCF, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Ole Miss, Arkansas

SEEDING

This is no doubt the hardest part about this process. Seeding the teams is tough because so many teams sometimes deserve higher seeds but there are just simply not enough slots. Plus, you have to change some seeds to follow the procedures set forth by the NCAA. And without a full committee, I find myself using RPI, team's record, SOS, and my gut as the real guide to where these teams end up. It has worked well the past 3 years and I see nothing changing this year.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), WCC (3), C-USA (2), MVC (2), Pac-10 (2)


(click on bracket to enlarge)

SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Kentucky is the overall top seed

Now in future posts, I will post the records of the teams here but this time, just the bracket.

GAMES TO WATCH

TUESDAY
Ohio State at Minnesota - For OSU, a chance to rebound from the loss at MSU and stay in the race for a 1 seed. For Minny, a chance to jump into an AT-LARGE spot.
Florida at Alabama - Florida is fine in terms of the bracket. Alabama is not, especially after a loss at LSU last week. This is a big game for the Tide.
Mississippi State at LSU - LSU is just trying to play spoiler to Miss. State, who is in good shape but you never know with this team come March.
Texas at Oklahoma - Texas is firmly on the bubble so a win in Norman could be huge. Oklahoma has the propensity this season to play good teams tough at home.
VCU at George Mason - Anytime two BUBBLE teams get together, it's a big one. Both are longshots without an AUTO bid but winner here helps their case for sure.
Cleveland State at UW-Milwaukee - The Vikings record looked good before last week when they lost 2 in a row. Gotta get back in the win column here.

WEDNESDAY
North Carolina @ Miami (FL) - UNC is still fighting for a #1 seed. Miami (FL) could pull off the rare double of beating Duke and UNC. That would go a long way for the committee.
New Mexico @ San Diego State - The Lobos could use a win over the Aztecs to solidify their case. The Aztecs though should win easily with this being at home.
Northwestern @ Indiana - N'Western can't afford to lose games like this anymore. They need quality wins and this would qualify for sure.
Arkansas @ Tennessee - Every road win is a good win. That would be the case for the Razorbacks who are firmly on the BUBBLE.
Purdue @ Illinois - Two teams who don't feel great about their standing right now. But a win against a fellow Big Ten BUBBLE squad will calm some fears.

THURSDAY
NC State @ Duke - It won't be easy for the Wolfpack to knock off the Devils but if they can, it would do wonders for their resume.
Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Both teams are firmly in the field but anytime these two get together, it is a game to watch, seeding or no seeding.
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss - Vandy should be okay but losses down the stretch, including this one may change some things. The Rebels need this one badly to stay in the conversation.
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh - The Panthers are livin' on a prayer right now, which is remarkable. WVU is the better team but it's never easy playing in front of the Oakland Zoo.
Arizona @ Washington State - The Wildcats barely got in my field. A loss here will see them drop out for sure.
Oregon @ California - California has 20 wins and is trending up. Oregon though it trending up as well. Good game to see just how good Cal really is.

That's all for now. I'll update this hopefully Thursday night after some of these big games that could affect seeding. Hope you enjoyed it and check back soon.

MB

2011 Barnes Bracketology - FINAL

We have come to the end everyone. No need for a lengthy intro. Just the facts.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS (43): Xavier, Temple, Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Louisville, St. John's, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, San Diego State, BYU, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, George Mason, Old Dominion, Kansas State, UNLV, UCLA, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Washington, Florida State, Utah State, Marquette, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan State, Colorado, Penn State, Illinois, and Tennessee


AUTOS (21): America East - Boston University, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Northern Colorado, Big South - UNC-Asheville , Big West - UC-Santa Barbara, Conference USA - Memphis, Horizon - Butler, Ivy - Princeton, MAAC - St. Peter's , MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Indiana State, Northeast - Long Island, Ohio Valley - Morehead State, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Wofford, Southland - UT-San Antonio, SWAC - Alabama State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC -Gonzaga

AT-LARGE (4): St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Clemson

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE (12): St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Clemson, USC, Alabama, Boston College, UAB, Missouri State, VCU, Harvard, UTEP

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)



(Click on bracket to enlarge)

EAST vs. WEST
SOUTHWEST vs. SOUTHEAST

**Ohio State is the overall top seed

And that's all she wrote. Here are my goals:

1. Get all #1 seeds right and in the correct region
2. Have every team in the correct seed position, plus/minus 2 spots
3. Get at least 50% of the second/third round locations correct
4. BONUS: Correctly predict one actual first round tournament matchup

I'll write a recap post after the brackets are announced later today (hopefully)

MB