2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 15

27 days until Selection Sunday. That's right. We are inside of a month until the most intense 15 minutes of TV as teams find out their path to a potential NCAA Championship. And what a season it's been already. If the regular season is any indication, the conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments are going to be something special. Hope you are enjoying it as much as I am.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Time for some new blood. After holding off, I've added 5 new teams that were right on the cusp of making it anyways. All of them had wins during the week that were enough for me to make the call. So welcome them all.

LOCKS (22): Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, Iowa, Maryland, Virginia, Xavier, North Carolina, Oregon, Michigan State, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Iowa State, Kentucky, Dayton, Duke, Utah, Purdue, Arizona, Providence, Texas A+M



AUTOS: Only one change as most of the leaders in the conference stayed on top.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Teams made some subtle moves but nothing too gigantic. Biggest win went to Wisconsin for beating Maryland on the road. They did move up a bit to get out of the final 4 spots in. Butler and Washington are back on the brink thanks to losses over the weekend. Florida State drops out for now after another loss.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (21): Texas, California, Florida, Baylor, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Indiana, UConn, VCU, Michigan, Saint Joseph's, LSU, Vanderbilt, Washington, Seton Hall, Butler

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: There are some teams looking to knock the door over, which is great. Both Texas Tech and Alabama went on the road and beat teams that are very likely to make the tournament. Look out for both as the weeks go on. Beyond that, we say goodbye for now to Valpo, Kansas State, Arizona State and Georgetown, who all suffered losses during the weekend that was. Maybe they get back here. Maybe they don't.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (36): Texas, California, Florida, Baylor, USC, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Indiana, UConn, VCU, Michigan, Wichita State, Saint Joseph's, Gonzaga, LSU, Vanderbilt, Washington, Seton Hall, Temple, Butler, Florida State, Texas Tech, St. Bonaventure, Alabama, Monmouth, Cincinnati, Clemson, George Washington, San Diego State, Saint Mary's, Tulsa, BYU

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Pac-12 (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), SEC (7), Big 12 (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (2)

COMING IN: LSU

GOING OUT: Florida State

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday or Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 13

I don't remember another season that has been a great as this one. Seems like every day there is a great matchup between projected tournament teams on TV. And because there are so many, you're finding some decent movement in the projections even though we are a month away from Selection Sunday. It's also fun knowing there is no dominant team in college basketball season, meaning this tournament could truly be up for grabs right from the start. Just gotta get into the Dance first.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Time for some new blood. After holding off, I've added 5 new teams that were right on the cusp of making it anyways. All of them had wins during the week that were enough for me to make the call. So welcome them all.

LOCKS (20): Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Maryland, Iowa, Virginia, Xavier, Oregon, West Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan State, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Iowa State, Kentucky, Dayton, Texas A+M, Utah, Purdue, Providence



AUTOS: No changes from the last bracket.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (25): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Lot of moving and shaking here once again. Lot of bad losses but also some quality wins. Plus, 5 teams graduating. LSU drops out while Vanderbilt jumps in. Biggest mover was Florida State who is now close to the end of this group. Not a bad loss at Syracuse but after a closer look, they need some quality wins to feel a lot safer.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (23): Texas, Duke, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, USC, South Carolina, Oregon State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, UConn, Butler, VCU, Washington, St. Joseph's, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Congrats to Alabama, who with its win vs. Texas A+M finds a way into this group and under consideration for the tournament. Also to Kansas State, a team with a ton of losses but not one bad loss. It's an odd squad. Did lose a few teams like Georgia, UCLA and Stanford who simply aren't up to snuff. Other than that, this is a really mediocre group after the AT-LARGE group. But it's only mid-Februrary. Some of these teams are bound to make a move to the front.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (42): Texas, Duke, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, USC, South Carolina, Oregon State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, Wichita State, UConn, Butler, VCU, Washington, St. Joseph's, Gonzaga, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, LSU, Temple, Monmouth, George Washington, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Clemson, St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, BYU, Alabama, Valparaiso, Kansas State, Arizona State, Georgetown

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), Pac-12 (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (2)

COMING IN: Vanderbilt

GOING OUT: LSU

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday or Monday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 9

What a weekend of games we had and what a week of games to come. Lots of changes in the order because of not just the results of those games, but the ability to research these teams over time. So you will see some substantial change with some teams. Others, not so much. Such is Barnes Bracketology.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No new teams joining the group but there was some shuffling, including the top spot. Villanova taking over for Oklahoma.

LOCKS (15): Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Xavier, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan State, Iowa State, Miami (FL), Texas A+M, Providence



AUTOS: Made a  few changes in this group after the weekend's games and a re-check of the standings.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (26): America East - Stony Brook, American - Temple, Atlantic-10 - Dayton,  Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - UNC-Asheville, Big West - Hawaii, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Gonzaga, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: Lot of moving and shaking here. Notre Dame had two big wins to rocket up to the top of this group. Clemson and Vanderbilt fall out completely. Oregon State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall move in.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (27):  Notre Dame, Kentucky, Texas, Duke, Utah, Purdue, USC, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Florida State, UConn, South Carolina, VCU, Syracuse, Indiana, Washington, Michigan, Butler, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall, LSU, Wisconsin

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Lot of movement here and that will be usual as one loss can really hurt a team's chances or a win can really help. Added a couple of teams to the group to continue to follow.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Notre Dame, Kentucky, Dayton, Texas, Duke, Utah, Purdue, USC, Arizona, Baylor, Florida, California, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Florida State, UConn, South Carolina, VCU, Syracuse, Indiana, Wichita State, Washington, Gonzaga, Michigan, Butler, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall, LSU, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, George Washington, Saint Mary's, Clemson, San Diego State, Monmouth, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Temple, Valparaiso, St. Bonaventure, Georgia, UCLA, Tulsa, BYU, Georgetown, Stanford, Arizona State

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (8), Pac-12 (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), A-10 (3), American (2)

COMING IN: Oregon State, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Temple, UNC-Asheville, Hawaii

GOING OUT: Clemson, Saint Mary's, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Winthrop, UC Irvine

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Villanova is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday or Friday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 6

So the big development since the first post on Monday was the news that Louisville will self-sanction themselves with a postseason ban in basketball. That is a huge development considering their standing this season. So right when I was ready to post my latest projections, I stopped and decided to wait an extra day. Their loss though is someone's else gain. But it is a shame that both Louisville and SMU will be ineligible from this year's tournament because both of those teams are very worthy and who know, could have made deep runs in the Big Dance.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Louisville was going to join this group with their win vs. North Carolina but alas, not happening. Oregon however is joining. They are number 2 in the RPI and with a solid win vs. Colorado, they deserve the graduation.

LOCKS (15): Oklahoma, Villanova, Kansas, Iowa, Xavier, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Michigan State, Texas A+M, Iowa State, Oregon, Miami (FL), Providence



AUTOS: Normally do not make changes to this group in the mid-week posts but I am forced to as I projected Grand Canyon to win the WAC. They are ineligible though because this is their first year in Div. I competition. So scratch that. They have been replaced by New Mexico State.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (26): America East - Stony Brook, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic-10 - VCU,  Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - New Mexico State

AT-LARGE: I said Louisville's loss would be someone else's gain. Well, that team is LSU, who sneaks into this group but will find themselves in Dayton for now. Some shuffling here but no other major changes.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (27): Dayton, Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke, Utah, Notre Dame, Indiana, Texas, Arizona, USC, Florida, Pittsburgh, Colorado, California, Michigan, Washington, UConn, FSU, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Butler, South Carolina, Clemson, St. Joseph's, LSU

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: Added a few teams to the end of this list. Don't worry too much about the order near the end. It's more about getting them on this list to keep track of them. It's still very early so there will always be a lot of movement in this group, up and down.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (47): Dayton, Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Duke, Utah, Notre Dame, Indiana, Texas, Arizona, USC, Florida, Pittsburgh, Colorado, California, Michigan, Washington, UConn, FSU, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Butler, South Carolina, Clemson, St. Joseph's, LSU,, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Monmouth, Stanford, Saint Mary's, BYU, UCLA, Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Georgetown, Valparaiso, George Washington, Temple, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (9), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (65), Big East (4), A-10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: LSU

GOING OUT: Louisville

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Oklahoma is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Sunday OR Monday's games. There's this thing called the Super Bowl which may delay getting it done. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB

2016 Barnes Bracketology - Feb. 1

For the seventh year in a row, Barnes Bracketology is here! Been a very successful 6 years as I have correctly predicted 67 out of 68 teams each year. This year, I hope to be perfect -- though as I will point out numerous times throughout this journey, just because I miss a team does not mean I am wrong, just means I do not agree with the tournament committee. There is no RIGHT way to make these brackets. It is sort of like a puzzle that can be put together in different ways. Barnes Bracketology is simply just another one of those ways.

These early posts are always a bit rough and the projections will fluctuate a good amount as I really start to get a feel for the teams. When you're a football fanatic like myself, it's hard to throw yourself into this immediately so it takes a week or two. But just like the previous years, I continue to find ways to make this process easier, faster and hopefully more enjoyable for the reader and I think I will do that again this year.

If you are new to this column, here is a quick intro. I will update this every Monday and Friday. That is because teams tend to play one game from Mon-Thurs and then another between Fri-Sun. I will explain where each team stands. I will NOT look at one Bracketology projection on any other site (ESPN, CBS Sports, etc..) during this process as to not be influenced by so-called "experts" (who just simply get paid to do what I am doing as a hobby). I love your feedback too so if you have any questions or comments, go for it.

So for the seventh (!) year, here we go.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: This group is for the teams that will pretty much locked up their spot in the tournament. My goal is to never take a team out of this group, so I may be hesitant to put teams in here early on until I know for sure a team has done enough to make the tournament. I will put these teams in order so you know how I rank these teams on my S-Curve.

LOCKS (14): Oklahoma, Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, Xavier, Maryland, Virginia, Texas A&M, Iowa State, West Virginia, Michigan State, Providence, Miami (FL)



AUTOS: This is the group of teams that will only make the tournament by winning their conference tournament. Obviously, I do not follow all of these conferences so I tend to just write in the team that leads the standings. I will update these as the weeks go on to make sure I predict the team playing the best at the time.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

AUTOS (27): America East - Stony Brook, American - Cincinnati, Atlantic-10 - VCU,  Atlantic Sun - North Florida, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC-Irvine, Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA - UAB, Horizon - Valparaiso, Ivy - Yale, MAAC - Monmouth, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Hampton, Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Mountain West - San Diego State, Northeast - Wagner, Ohio Valley - Belmont, Pac-12 - Oregon, Patriot - Bucknell, Southern - Chattanooga, Southland - Stephen F. Austin, SWAC - Texas Southern, Summit - South Dakota State, Sun Belt - AR-Little Rock, WCC - Saint Mary's, WAC - Grand Canyon

AT-LARGE: This group is for the teams that are not LOCKS to get into the tournament as of yet but still are worthy of being included in the field. This is the group that will slowly get smaller and smaller as the weeks go on. Some of these tams will graduate to LOCKS. Others will fall out and simply be on the BUBBLE on the outside looking in.

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the "First Four" in Dayton.

AT-LARGE (27): Baylor, Kentucky, Louisville, Purdue, Dayton, Utah, Notre Dame, Duke, Arizona, Indiana, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan, Colorado, Pittsburgh, USC, South Carolina, Washington, Florida State, UConn, Saint Joseph's, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Butler, Clemson, Vanderbilt

BUBBLE WATCH

BUBBLE: You know what this group is about. The teams that are not LOCKS and are hoping to be an AT-LARGE selection. You'll notice, all of the AT-LARGE teams are in this group because if you aren't a LOCK, you're still technically on the BUBBLE. Some teams are just safer than others. You'll also see teams from the AUTO category in here. That's because they would be in the AT-LARGE discussion if they were to lose in the conference tournament.

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (46): Oregon, Baylor, Kentucky, Louisville, Purdue, Dayton, Utah, Notre Dame, Duke, Arizona, Indiana, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan, Colorado, Pittsburgh, USC, Wichita State, VCU, South Carolina, Washington, Florida State, UConn, Saint Joseph's, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Butler, Clemson, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, LSU, UCLA, San Diego State, Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Wisconsin, Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Seton Hall, BYU, Georgetown, Valparaiso, Tulsa, Texas Tech

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
ACC (10), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Big East (4), A-10 (3), American (2), West Coast (2)

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
SOUTH vs. WEST
EAST vs. MIDWEST

**Oklahoma is the overall top seed

Next update will come after Thursday's games. Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I'll answer any questions.

MB