Barnes Bracketology - March 11, 2010

Welcome back to Barnes Bracketology, coming live from Norcross, GA. Why am I in Norcross? Well, I am in transit from Gwinnett, GA to Macon, GA as I cover the high school basketball playoffs in the Peach State. Don't worry, I'm not doing this as I drive. I'm safely at a Starbucks (free plug) doing my work. Now why am I telling you all of this? Because it is further proof just how serious I am about this "March hobby" of mine. Even when I'm not home, I'm thinking brackets!

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Call me crazy but I'm putting Notre Dame in this category. Their 5-game win streak has been too impressive to not have them in this category. Seton Hall had their chance to possibly take away the Irish's bid but ND did what they had to. So congrats Notre Dame, you are officially in the tournament.

LOCKS (36): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame

AUTOS: 2 more teams are in the field officially, thanks to conference tournament victories. But unlike yesterday, I got both of them wrong. In the Big Sky, Montana upset Weber State and in the Northeast, Robert Morris beat Quinnipiac. I'd say I'm disappointed in my predictions but I'm not at all.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Montana, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State, WCC - St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: Because of Notre Dame, we're down to just 7 spots left in this category, and UNLV is pretty safe too. Many of these teams are in action starting today or tomorrow so pay close attention to this category.

AT-LARGE (7): UNLV, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

Remember how excited you were as a kid when you blew bubbles and then they burst? Well, that's the kind of excitement I have when I see the bubbles burst for these basketball teams. That just means one less team I have to agonize about when it comes to the final at-large spots. Becuase of yesterday's losses, you can say goodbye to Seton Hall and South Florida. With 8 Big East teams already in, their chances are done. However, because it just seems right, I am adding Cincinnati back into the bubble mix. Their win over Louisville is just the start though of a 3-game win streak they need to really be considered strongly.

BUBBLE (19): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

That's the field. What about the seeding?

SEEDING

There weren't too many games involving projected tournament teams but of the ones there were, they managed to shift the seeding a bit. Notre Dame's win moved them from a 12 to a 9 seed. The win wasn't THAT impressive but considering I had them on my 10 seed line but was forced to put them at a 12, it seemed right to move them to a 9 seed now. Marquette (who won) and Louisville (who lost) switched spots/seeds. FSU, VT, and Washington all dropped a spot to make room for ND's ascent. More changes tomorrow for sure.

**NOTE** Because I am using a different computer and forgot to save my brackat template on my jump drive, I was unable to make a new bracket. I will have one tomorrow when I am back in Augusta. However, the changes are reflected below in list form.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (23-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (27-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-6) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Marquette (21-10) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (25-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Montana (22-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Florida State (22-8) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (26-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Washington (21-9) - Spokane
#6 Butler (28-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (24-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (26-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (22-9) vs. #9 Notre Dame (22-10) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Robert Morris (23-11) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (24-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (26-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (26-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-10) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Louisville (20-12) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

THURSDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Texas Tech vs. Kansas (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Only thing possibly on the line here is Kansas' top overall seed spot. The 1 seed is locked up.
Georgetown vs. Syracuse (Big East Quarterfinals) - The Hoyas could really improve their seeding with a good run in the Big East tourney. Syracuse is a 1 seed no matter what.
Cincinnati vs. West Virginia (Big East Quarterfinals) - Cincy just has to keep winning to stay in the bubble mix. WVU could be a 1 seed if they win the Big East tourney.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - KSU can't afford to lose another game, especially if they like that 2 seed.
Marquette vs. Villanova (Big East Quarterfinals) - Both tteams could improve their seeding with victories. Plus, Marquette would like some revenge on Nova.
LSU vs. Tennessee (SEC First Round) - Tennessee can move up to a 4 seed with a semifinal appearance probably in the SEC tournament, though I know they have higher aspirations.
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh (Big East Quarterfinals) - A loss by Pitt or ND could see their seeds fall. Wins though keep them right where they are.
Texas vs. Baylor (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - These teams played just less than a week ago in Waco and Baylor won. If the Bears win again, they'll find themselves a solid 4 seed.
UCF vs. UTEP (Conference USA Quarterfinals) - Pretty simple for UTEP. Beat UCF and become a lock for the tournament.
Nebraska vs. Texas A+M (Big 12 Quarterfinals) - Nebraska upset Mizzou yesterday so A+M better be ready. A loss may have them a lower seed come tomorrow.
Houston vs. Memphis (Conference USA Quarterfinals) - A must-win for the Tigers if they want to stay in the at-large category.
Boise State vs. Utah State (WAC Quarterfinals) - Utah State may be an at-large even if with a loss in the conference tournament but why chance it?
Southern Miss vs. UAB (Conference USA Quarterfinals) - A Memphis loss and a UAB win helps their chances, though the Blazers need to probably get to the tournament final.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - Now would not be the time for San Diego State to slip up. They've been steady all year and avoided the bad loss.
Oregon vs. California (Pac-10 Quarterfinals) - Losing in this round would not be good for the Bears, who are pretty safe. A semifinal appearance and loss wouldn't be that awful.
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech (ACC First Round) - Tricky first round matchup for GT but one they have to win. They are the last team in for a reason. They are way too inconsistent.
Ohio vs. Kent State (MAC Quarterfinals) - GO BOBCATS! (Sorry, but gotta root for the alma mater)
Auburn vs. Florida (SEC First Round) - Auburn is capable of winning this game and if they do, the Gators will be in deep trouble. They're riding a 3-game losing streak right now.
Stanford vs. Arizona State (Pac-10 Quarterfinals) - The mission for ASU is to simply avoid the upset here and then take down Washington in the semifinals. That should be enough for an at-large.
Oregon vs. Washington (Pac-10 Quarterfinals) - The mission for Washington is to simply avoid the upset here and then take down ASU in the semifinals. That should be enough for an at-large.
Utah vs. UNLV (Mountain West Quarterfinals) - UNLV is in good shape. Losing to lowly Utah though may put some doubts in the committee's mind...and mine.

Sorry again about the lack of a bracket but it'll be back tomorrow. Hopefully, you will be too as we get that much closer to Selection Sunday. Don't forget you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 10, 2010

So far, luck has been on the side of bubble teams. Unlike last year when teams like Cleveland State won the conference tournament and took a spot from a bubble team, this year has been rather normal. The better team has won and no at-large spots had to be taken away. Of course, that can change in an instant once the power six conferences get involved. Teams like Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Minnesota and even North Carolina could make a deep run and actually win the conference tournament, worsening the chances for a bubble team. It's what truly makes the conference tournament season so much fun.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: Yet again, nothing new in this group. Butler won their conference tournament last night but were already a lock anyways. This group may see an addition tomorrow though in Notre Dame, if the Irish can get by Seton Hall.

LOCKS (35): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech


AUTOS: Congrats to 2 more teams who have clinched their spot in the dance and yet again, I correctly predicted the winner of the tournament so no change needed but to put them in bold. In the Summit, Oakland defeated IUPUI. In the Sun Belt, North Texas beat Troy.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State, WCC - St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: No changes here but games today are sure to shake this up a bit.

AT-LARGE (8): Notre Dame, UNLV, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

Four of these teams played yesterday and all won but none are getting credit for their easy victories. All of the teams were playing much inferior teams and the only consequence to come from the result of their games was to no longer be a bubble team if they lost. But again, they all won, so no harm, no foul. It only gets tougher for all of them though as they try to get on the right side of the bubble.

BUBBLE (20): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, South Florida, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

No changes to the field or the bubble after Tuesday's games. What about the seeding?

SEEDING

With no games to really have an impact on the seeding, I have not made any changes to the bracket I made for Monday. Over the next two days though, don't be surprised to see some major shakeups though as many of the teams in my projected field of 65 begin to play and the upsets begin.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (22-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (27-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-6) vs. #11 Washington (21-9) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Louisville (20-11) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Weber State (21-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (20-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (26-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Notre Dame (21-10) - Spokane
#6 Butler (28-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (23-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (26-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #9 Florida State (22-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (23-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (24-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (26-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (26-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-9) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Marquette (20-10) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

WEDNESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

South Florida vs. Georgetown (Big East Second Round) - The Bulls have beaten the Hoyas before so they won't be intimidated. They may feel some pressure though cause they must win this game and probably another to be considered an at-large selection.
Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame (Big East Second Round) - Technically not an elimination game because I think Seton Hall would need to win another game but if ND loses this one, they put the ball in Seton Hall's court to take their bid.
Robert Morris @ Quinnipiac (Northeast Championship) - Winner gets the automatic bid to the big dance and maybe more importantly, a "coveted" 16 seed.
Montana @ Weber State (Big Sky Championship) - Montana upset Northern Colorado to get here. It will take another upset to reach the dance. Weber State is the clear favorite.

Don't forget, I am updating daily until Selection Sunday so check back tomorrow to see what's new and who's where. And also don't forget you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 9, 2010

On this day a week from now, the NCAA Tournament will officially begin with the opening round game. Granted, that game isn't the most-watched event of the tournament but it does signal the start of what will be 64 basketball games in a span of just 3 weeks. Of course, thanks to championship week this week, we have tons of games this week. So needless the say, the March Madness begins well before the Big Dance. Or maybe as ESPN puts it, it's the "Mayhem before the Madness".

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No one new in this group. The only team to play in this group was Gonzaga, who lost in their conference championship. But again, if you're a lock, you're safe so the Bulldogs are still going dancing.

LOCKS (35): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech


AUTOS: Last night, 4 more teams clinched their spots in the field and this time, there's no one new. I actually predicted them correctly. Old Dominion won the Colonial, Wofford won the SoCon (first tourney appearance for the Terriers), Siena won the MAAC (in OT), and St. Mary's won the WCC. Granted, I didn't predict St. Mary's would win the WCC but I had them in the field before the game.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State, WCC - St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: With St. Mary's moving to the AUTO category, the number of at-large spots is now down to 8. No changes to this group though as none of these teams were in action.

AT-LARGE (8): Notre Dame, UNLV, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

I've seen talk that St. Mary's win in the conference championship was a punch in the gut for all the other bubble teams. I disagree as I think St. Mary's was probably pretty safe, win or lose. But regardless, with St. Mary's winning, the number of spots does shrink by one. What I think really helped bubble teams are the wins by Siena and Old Dominion. Both teams may have stolen at-large bids but they won their conference tournaments to avoid any wory come Sunday. So the bubble group of 23 is now down to 20 as 3 more teams get their spot via the AUTO category.

BUBBLE (20): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, South Florida, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

No changes to the field or the bubble after Monday's games. What about the seeding?

SEEDING

Yeah, no changes here to the bracket. Gonzaga is still pretty safe as a 6 seed despite the loss. St. Mary's could see their seeding elevate from an 11 seed but not until some more games take place in other conference tournaments. The same could be said of Siena and Old Dominion. But again, no changes for now because those teams were expected to win the games they won.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (22-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (27-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-6) vs. #11 Washington (21-9) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Louisville (20-11) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Weber State (20-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (20-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (26-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Notre Dame (21-10) - Spokane
#6 Butler (27-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (23-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (26-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #9 Florida State (22-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (23-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (23-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (25-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (26-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-9) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Marquette (20-10) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

TUESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Wright State @ Butler (Horizon Championship) - A real bubble-buster game. If Wright State wins, there goes another at-large spot. Butler won both meetings by 12 points in regular season.
DePaul vs. South Florida (Big East First Round) - Needless to say, if South Florida falls in the first round of the Big East tourney, they can kiss any chances of an at-large bid goodbye.
St. Joseph's vs. Rhode Island (Atlantic-10 First Round) - Rhode Island is still on the outside looking in thanks to an awful finish to the regular season. They can begin their charge today.
George Washington vs. Dayton (Atlantic-10 First Round) - Just like Rhode Island, Dayton just needs to start winning again. A loss and they're done.
Providence vs. Seton Hall (Big East First Round) - Like South Florida, Seton Hall is going to have to make a deep run to even get a sniff of an at-large spot. So no way they lose this game and make the dance.
North Texas vs. Troy (Sun Belt Championship) - Both teams finished at 13-5 in the regular season conference standings but it was North Texas who won the only head-to-head matchup.
IUPUI vs. Oakland (Summit Championship) - Both teams are tourney veterans but only one team is going this year. Oakland has won 19 of their last 20 games. The only loss in that span came to none other than IUPUI.

Don't forget, we're going daily until Selection Sunday here so check back tomorrow. And also don't forget you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 8, 2010

I think it's safe to say now that this may be one of the weakest at-large fields in the tournament. Normally during this time of year, there are teams fighting hard for those final few spots. But this year, it's the exact opposite as teams that seemed safe just a couple weeks ago, continue to lose, making it hard to figure out whether they actually deserve a spot in the field. In better years, 3-game losing streaks like the one Florida is one right now would have them in awful shape. But thanks to losses by Illinois, Georgia Tech, UAB, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Mississippi State, they're not that bad after all. It's just crazy to see so few teams take control of its own destiny. Instead, they leave it up to the selection committee and people like me.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We began the weekend with 33 locks. We ended the weekend with 35. Louisville enters the group, thanks to a resounding win over Syracuse at home, giving them a sweep of the projected 1 seed. Also in the group is Virginia Tech, who despite their 23-7 record, was lacking quality wins. But a road victory at Georgia Tech is enough to make them feel safe now. Northern Iowa was already in this category but just to make sure they felt comfortable, won the Missouri Valley championship and has earned an automatic bid.

LOCKS (35): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech


AUTOS: This weekend began the conference tournament madness and that means changes are gonna be coming to this group. There are a handful to take about today. In the America East, Stony Brook lost so Vermont is my new pick. And in the Sun Belt, Middle Tenn. St. fell so North Texas is my new projected champ. Along with those changes, we also have some teams that earned the automatic bid by already winning their tournaments. In the Atlantic Sun, a huge surprise as fifth-seeded East Tennessee State won the bid. And in the Big South, Winthrop upset top-seeded Coastal Carolina to snatch that bid. No upsets though in two other conferences as Murray State won the Ohio Valley's bid and Cornell won the Ivy League's bid, thanks to their win Friday, giving them the regular season title.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will now appear in bold so they can differentiated from teams that I projecting to win the automatic bid.

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: With two teams leaving for the LOCKS group, the at-large number has shrunk to 9. But like I said in the beginning, a lot of the teams in this group aren't exactly winning to earn their spot in this group. Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois and Rhode Island all lost over the weekend, hurting their chances. Only Rhode Island fell out of the group though, as they lost to a team with a sub-200 RPI for the second time in 2 weeks. Their loss was Memphis's gain though, as the Tigers now enter the group, thanks to their solid play as of late. Also, with Notre Dame's road win at Marquette, they should be in good shape. But I'm keeping them in this group, pending an early exit in the Big East tourney by them and a good run by another Big East squad.

AT-LARGE (9): Notre Dame, UNLV, St. Mary's, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

After weeks of teasing us, the bubble has finally burst for UConn and Cincinnati. 3-game losing streaks just don't help you make the tourney field. Also, William & Mary is off this list. Their resume just won't cut it and with one game left in tonight's Colonial League championship, they could take out any guesswork by just winning the automatic bid. That would leave a team like Old Dominion though just how good their resume is.

UTEP and California seem to be alright, even with a loss in the conference tournament, but that'll depend on how others do. Arizona State is just barely on the cut line. It's between them and Washington for that second Pac-10 spot. The two are slated to play each other in the Pac-10 Tourney semifinals, unless one gets upset. That would no doubt be an elimination game. UAB and Dayton had chances to make statements but both fell flat on their faces last week, losing two games to quality teams, including one at home. And as for Mississippi State, yikes. They likely need to reach the conference tournament final just to get a sniff of the AT-LARGE group now.

BUBBLE (23): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, St. Mary's, Washington, Old Dominion, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Siena, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, South Florida, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

Now that the field is taken care of, time to see where they shake out in the seeding.

SEEDING

With all of the weekend's games, I went into this latest bracket with a clean slate. I went back to the basics of making the S-Curve and because of that, came away with a bracket I really like. Some of the biggest movers include Texas A&M and Maryland, both up to a 4 seed. The biggest drops came from Georgia Tech (11 seed), Florida (12 seed), and Siena (13 seed), who I was giving way too much credit in earlier brackets.

The seeding was tough for teams like Notre Dame and Missouri. While I wanted to have them at a higher seed, the bracket forced me to seed them lower than I wanted. So expect their seeding to possibly improve as the top seeds change this week. As for the top seeds, Duke is the fourth 1 seed for now and if they win the ACC tournament, will stay there. But if they trip up at all, Ohio State, West Virginia or Purdue could win it if they win their conference tournament. Kansas State probably is out of the running after losing at home to Iowa State but are still a solid 2 seed.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (22-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (26-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-5) vs. #11 Washington (21-9) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Louisville (20-11) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Weber State (19-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (20-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (25-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Notre Dame (21-10) - Spokane
#6 Butler (27-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (23-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (25-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #9 Florida State (22-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (23-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (22-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (24-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (25-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-9) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Marquette (20-10) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

MONDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC Championship) - Gonzaga is in the field no matter what. St. Mary's isn't too sure and sure could use the automatic bid. The Zags won the first two matchups.
William & Mary vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Championship) - If Old Dominion doesn't want to be on edge come Selection Sunday, they should just win this game.
Fairfield vs. Siena (MAAC Championship) - Siena might still get an at-large berth but they're not sure. They are sure though that with a win tonight, they're in.
Appalachian State vs. Wofford (SoCon Championship) - Wofford won the regular season title but Appalachian State won the only meeting between the two 77-76 at Wofford.

Now that the conference tournaments are underway, we're going daily here on Barnes Bracketology. Also, look for some special posts such as breaking down the bubble watch. Of course, this is all just my opinion of how things will shake out. You can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 5, 2010

For a bracketologist in training like myself, I could spend hours upon hours agonizing about who should make the field. I could compare numbers and weigh resumes all day. But in the end, I have to just go with my gut. Unlike in the selection committee's room, there's no one to convince one way or another. Instead, I have to convince myself, and sometimes, that isn't easy. For example, I have to convince myself all the time that Washington will be an at-large. I don't want to believe it but I do. Will that belief end up being true? We shall see...

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: There weren't any really teams that were in position to lock up their spot in the field. Dayton had the best chance with a win over Richmond but even I don't think that would have been enough.

LOCKS (33): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, and Florida State.


AUTOS: The conference tournaments have begun and that means the upsets are underway. In the Atlantic Sun, it was upset central. The 5, 6 and 8 seed all won first round matchups. Among the casualties was Belmont, who are out of this group. Returning to the group is Jacksonville.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Despite a small amount of games, there was one game that really impacted this group. That game being the Dayton @ Richmond game. Dayton lost a close one and while it's not a "bad loss", it's bad timing for a team that really needed to add another signature win to its resume. So for now, they are out and San Diego State is back in. Washington also won at Oregon but that's not worthy of moving up anywhere.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia Tech, Louisville, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Illinois, Rhode Island, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

No bubbles were burst yesterday so we stick with the same group of 28 but there has been some slight movement. Of course, Dayton moves down a bit after their loss to Richmond. They now need a good run in the A-10 tournament, which is possible. Moving up though is Arizona State, who beat a decent USC team and keeps their hopes alive. with a deep run in the Pac-10 tourney, they may crack the field.

BUBBLE (28): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UConn, Dayton, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, UAB, William & Mary, Cornell, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Memphis

That's the field. Let's move to the the seeding.

SEEDING

As expected, minimal changes to the bracket. Just inserted San Diego State back into the bracket as a 12 seed and replaced Belmont with Jacksonville. Other then that, yesterday's game didn't sway me enough to change any other seedings, though if Providence and Penn State could have pulled off big upsets over Pitt and Michigan State respectively, I would have been busy switching some teams around again.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (23-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - Spokane
#5 Texas A+M (21-8) vs. #12 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (23-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (22-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 Temple (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (20-9) - Spokane
#6 Maryland (22-7) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - San Jose
#7 Oklahoma State (20-9) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Buffalo
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 Wake Forest (18-9) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (28-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (28-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (25-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Rhode Island (21-7) - San Jose
#5 BYU (27-4) vs. #12 Notre Dame (20-10) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (22-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-5) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-5) vs. #15 Jacksonville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (23-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (22-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (22-7) - San Jose
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Louisville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#8 Missouri (22-8) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

FRIDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Cornell @ Brown - With a victory, Cornell wins the Ivy League title and officially earns the first spot in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
Kent State @ Akron - The two best teams in the MAC battle before the tournament. The winner here gets the momentum and the top seed.

SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Syracuse @ Louisville - If Louisville pulls off this victory, they will assure themselves a spot in the field. A 'Cuse loss may put the top overall seed back in play.
Kansas @ Missouri - If Kansas wants that top overall seed, they win this game. Missouri could improve seeding though with a clutch victory.
North Carolina @ Duke - Strictly a game for pride for UNC. Duke though is fighting for a 1 seed and can't afford to trip up to their rival.
Purdue @ Penn State - Penn State nearly beat Michigan State in East Lansing. So Purdue better be ready. They are fighting for a 2 seed and Big Ten title.
West Virginia @ Villanova - The winner can continue to dream of a 1 seed. The loser will be no better than a 2 seed, and possibly fall to a 3 seed later.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State - After losing to Auburn, MSU has to win this game. Meanwhile, Tennessee could use a quality road victory.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt - Vandy has done well to avoid the huge upset. Losing at home though to South Carolina is possible and would hurt their seeding.
Cincinnati @ Georgetown - A must-win for the Bearcats, who are skating on thin ice. For the Hoyas, this game gives them a chance to stop their slide from a 2 seed to a 5 seed.
UAB @ UTEP - A UTEP win locks up their spot in the tournament. A UAB win improves their chances of an at-large spot but it still might not be enough.
Texas @ Baylor - One of those games that could really throw my bracket a twist. Depending on who wins could really shake up some seedings.
Maryland @ Virginia - If the Terps avoid the upset, they put themselves in great shape to move up a seed or two, especially with all the other action over the weekend.
Texas A+M @ Oklahoma - The Aggies are safely in the field but a 5 seed is surely nicer than a 6 seed. A loss on senior day in Norman could mean a fall from that 5 seed.
Florida State @ Miami (FL) - The 'Noles should be fine after Wednesday's win at Wake but to be safe, avoid this upset on the road and get to the ACC tourney.
Richmond @ Charlotte - I think the 49ers are toast now but who knows? With a win here and a run to the A-10 tourney finals, they could change my mind.
UConn @ South Florida - Two bubble teams on the outside looking in. South Florida must have it. UConn probably must have it too. 17-14 overall and 7-11 in conference play is not attractive.
Notre Dame @ Marquette - The Irish are doing everything right this time of year. Winnig big games against great teams. They win this one and a Big East tourney game, they will find themselves in great shape to make the field.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas - The Rebels still need more victories and more losses form other teams to feel good. Losing at Arkansas is just simply not an option.
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech - The Hokies could really use this road win. They have struggled to win meaningful games all year.
Rhode Island @ UMass - Should be an easy victory for the Rams but they've lost games like this already this year. They have to win this game to stay in consideration for an at-large spot.
California @ Stanford - One last road hurdle for the Bears before the Pac-10 tourney. They still may need to win that tourney to get in but every win helps their chances in case they don't.
Saint Louis @ Dayton - Dayton must win this game to stay in the discussion. A loss all but puts all the pressure on them to win the conference tournament.
Seton Hall @ Providence - The Pirates probably don't have any real chance of getting in but depending on who loses down the stretch, they just may be the lucky one.
Washington @ Oregon State - A dangerous game for the Huskies. They survived Eugene but now, must survive Corvallis. Huskies lose and they lose their projected at-large spot.
San Diego State @ Air Force - This shouldn't even be close. But if the Aztecs do get upset, they'll find themselves back on the outside looking in.

SUNDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Florida @ Kentucky - Florida may feel safely in but losing this game means a 3-game losing streak going into the SEC tournament. Lose early there and they will probably be NIT bound
Michigan @ Michigan State - After seeing the Spartans struggle against Penn State, one has to wonder just how good this team is. 2 seed could be on the line.
Wisconsin @ Illinois - I think a must-win for an Illinois team with a subpar RPI and SOS and on a losing streak. With a loss, it will take a deep Big Ten tourney run to make the NCAA tourney.
Clemson @ Wake Forest - Clemson can lose this game and feel fine. If Wake loses, that's 5 losses in a row. They may move from lock to bubble, which is NOT GOOD by any means.

As you can see, a ton of games to watch over the weekend. That also means my next post won't be up until Monday. When the post is up, expect a lot of changes. Starting Monday, I will be posting daily as conference tournaments get underway and even including some special posts.

As always, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB