Barnes Bracketology - March 9, 2010

On this day a week from now, the NCAA Tournament will officially begin with the opening round game. Granted, that game isn't the most-watched event of the tournament but it does signal the start of what will be 64 basketball games in a span of just 3 weeks. Of course, thanks to championship week this week, we have tons of games this week. So needless the say, the March Madness begins well before the Big Dance. Or maybe as ESPN puts it, it's the "Mayhem before the Madness".

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No one new in this group. The only team to play in this group was Gonzaga, who lost in their conference championship. But again, if you're a lock, you're safe so the Bulldogs are still going dancing.

LOCKS (35): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech


AUTOS: Last night, 4 more teams clinched their spots in the field and this time, there's no one new. I actually predicted them correctly. Old Dominion won the Colonial, Wofford won the SoCon (first tourney appearance for the Terriers), Siena won the MAAC (in OT), and St. Mary's won the WCC. Granted, I didn't predict St. Mary's would win the WCC but I had them in the field before the game.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will appear in bold.

AUTOS (22): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State, WCC - St. Mary's

AT-LARGE: With St. Mary's moving to the AUTO category, the number of at-large spots is now down to 8. No changes to this group though as none of these teams were in action.

AT-LARGE (8): Notre Dame, UNLV, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

I've seen talk that St. Mary's win in the conference championship was a punch in the gut for all the other bubble teams. I disagree as I think St. Mary's was probably pretty safe, win or lose. But regardless, with St. Mary's winning, the number of spots does shrink by one. What I think really helped bubble teams are the wins by Siena and Old Dominion. Both teams may have stolen at-large bids but they won their conference tournaments to avoid any wory come Sunday. So the bubble group of 23 is now down to 20 as 3 more teams get their spot via the AUTO category.

BUBBLE (20): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, South Florida, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

No changes to the field or the bubble after Monday's games. What about the seeding?

SEEDING

Yeah, no changes here to the bracket. Gonzaga is still pretty safe as a 6 seed despite the loss. St. Mary's could see their seeding elevate from an 11 seed but not until some more games take place in other conference tournaments. The same could be said of Siena and Old Dominion. But again, no changes for now because those teams were expected to win the games they won.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (22-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (27-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-6) vs. #11 Washington (21-9) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Louisville (20-11) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Weber State (20-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (20-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (26-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Notre Dame (21-10) - Spokane
#6 Butler (27-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (23-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (26-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #9 Florida State (22-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (23-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (23-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (25-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (26-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-9) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Marquette (20-10) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

TUESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Wright State @ Butler (Horizon Championship) - A real bubble-buster game. If Wright State wins, there goes another at-large spot. Butler won both meetings by 12 points in regular season.
DePaul vs. South Florida (Big East First Round) - Needless to say, if South Florida falls in the first round of the Big East tourney, they can kiss any chances of an at-large bid goodbye.
St. Joseph's vs. Rhode Island (Atlantic-10 First Round) - Rhode Island is still on the outside looking in thanks to an awful finish to the regular season. They can begin their charge today.
George Washington vs. Dayton (Atlantic-10 First Round) - Just like Rhode Island, Dayton just needs to start winning again. A loss and they're done.
Providence vs. Seton Hall (Big East First Round) - Like South Florida, Seton Hall is going to have to make a deep run to even get a sniff of an at-large spot. So no way they lose this game and make the dance.
North Texas vs. Troy (Sun Belt Championship) - Both teams finished at 13-5 in the regular season conference standings but it was North Texas who won the only head-to-head matchup.
IUPUI vs. Oakland (Summit Championship) - Both teams are tourney veterans but only one team is going this year. Oakland has won 19 of their last 20 games. The only loss in that span came to none other than IUPUI.

Don't forget, we're going daily until Selection Sunday here so check back tomorrow. And also don't forget you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 8, 2010

I think it's safe to say now that this may be one of the weakest at-large fields in the tournament. Normally during this time of year, there are teams fighting hard for those final few spots. But this year, it's the exact opposite as teams that seemed safe just a couple weeks ago, continue to lose, making it hard to figure out whether they actually deserve a spot in the field. In better years, 3-game losing streaks like the one Florida is one right now would have them in awful shape. But thanks to losses by Illinois, Georgia Tech, UAB, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Mississippi State, they're not that bad after all. It's just crazy to see so few teams take control of its own destiny. Instead, they leave it up to the selection committee and people like me.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: We began the weekend with 33 locks. We ended the weekend with 35. Louisville enters the group, thanks to a resounding win over Syracuse at home, giving them a sweep of the projected 1 seed. Also in the group is Virginia Tech, who despite their 23-7 record, was lacking quality wins. But a road victory at Georgia Tech is enough to make them feel safe now. Northern Iowa was already in this category but just to make sure they felt comfortable, won the Missouri Valley championship and has earned an automatic bid.

LOCKS (35): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia Tech


AUTOS: This weekend began the conference tournament madness and that means changes are gonna be coming to this group. There are a handful to take about today. In the America East, Stony Brook lost so Vermont is my new pick. And in the Sun Belt, Middle Tenn. St. fell so North Texas is my new projected champ. Along with those changes, we also have some teams that earned the automatic bid by already winning their tournaments. In the Atlantic Sun, a huge surprise as fifth-seeded East Tennessee State won the bid. And in the Big South, Winthrop upset top-seeded Coastal Carolina to snatch that bid. No upsets though in two other conferences as Murray State won the Ohio Valley's bid and Cornell won the Ivy League's bid, thanks to their win Friday, giving them the regular season title.

Teams that have clinched their automatic bid will now appear in bold so they can differentiated from teams that I projecting to win the automatic bid.

AUTOS (21): America East - Vermont, Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - North Texas, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: With two teams leaving for the LOCKS group, the at-large number has shrunk to 9. But like I said in the beginning, a lot of the teams in this group aren't exactly winning to earn their spot in this group. Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois and Rhode Island all lost over the weekend, hurting their chances. Only Rhode Island fell out of the group though, as they lost to a team with a sub-200 RPI for the second time in 2 weeks. Their loss was Memphis's gain though, as the Tigers now enter the group, thanks to their solid play as of late. Also, with Notre Dame's road win at Marquette, they should be in good shape. But I'm keeping them in this group, pending an early exit in the Big East tourney by them and a good run by another Big East squad.

AT-LARGE (9): Notre Dame, UNLV, St. Mary's, Washington, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, and Illinois.

BUBBLE WATCH

After weeks of teasing us, the bubble has finally burst for UConn and Cincinnati. 3-game losing streaks just don't help you make the tourney field. Also, William & Mary is off this list. Their resume just won't cut it and with one game left in tonight's Colonial League championship, they could take out any guesswork by just winning the automatic bid. That would leave a team like Old Dominion though just how good their resume is.

UTEP and California seem to be alright, even with a loss in the conference tournament, but that'll depend on how others do. Arizona State is just barely on the cut line. It's between them and Washington for that second Pac-10 spot. The two are slated to play each other in the Pac-10 Tourney semifinals, unless one gets upset. That would no doubt be an elimination game. UAB and Dayton had chances to make statements but both fell flat on their faces last week, losing two games to quality teams, including one at home. And as for Mississippi State, yikes. They likely need to reach the conference tournament final just to get a sniff of the AT-LARGE group now.

BUBBLE (23): UTEP, California, Notre Dame, UNLV, Utah State, St. Mary's, Washington, Old Dominion, San Diego State, Florida, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Arizona State, Siena, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, South Florida, Saint Louis, UAB, Dayton, and Mississippi State

Now that the field is taken care of, time to see where they shake out in the seeding.

SEEDING

With all of the weekend's games, I went into this latest bracket with a clean slate. I went back to the basics of making the S-Curve and because of that, came away with a bracket I really like. Some of the biggest movers include Texas A&M and Maryland, both up to a 4 seed. The biggest drops came from Georgia Tech (11 seed), Florida (12 seed), and Siena (13 seed), who I was giving way too much credit in earlier brackets.

The seeding was tough for teams like Notre Dame and Missouri. While I wanted to have them at a higher seed, the bracket forced me to seed them lower than I wanted. So expect their seeding to possibly improve as the top seeds change this week. As for the top seeds, Duke is the fourth 1 seed for now and if they win the ACC tournament, will stay there. But if they trip up at all, Ohio State, West Virginia or Purdue could win it if they win their conference tournament. Kansas State probably is out of the running after losing at home to Iowa State but are still a solid 2 seed.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (29-2) vs. #16 Vermont - Oklahoma City
#2 Purdue (26-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (18-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Villanova (24-6) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (22-7) - Providence
#4 Maryland (23-7) vs. #13 Siena (26-6) - Spokane
#5 Vanderbilt (23-7) vs. #12 Memphis (23-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (26-5) vs. #11 Washington (21-9) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (28-4) vs. #10 UNLV (23-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Louisville (20-11) vs. #9 Utah State (25-6) - Oklahoma City

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (28-3) vs. #16 Lehigh (21-10)/Jackson State (19-11) - Buffalo
#2 Kansas State (24-6) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (24-7) vs. #14 Weber State (19-9) - Providence
#4 Texas A+M (22-8) vs. #13 Kent State (23-8) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (23-7) vs. #12 Illinois (18-13) - San Jose
#6 Georgetown (20-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (22-8) - Providence
#7 Richmond (24-7) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (23-7) - Oklahoma City
#8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs. #9 UTEP (24-5) - Buffalo

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (29-2) vs. #16 Winthrop (19-13) - New Orleans
#2 West Virginia (24-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (20-14) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Wofford (25-8) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #13 Cornell (27-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (26-5) vs. #12 Notre Dame (21-10) - Spokane
#6 Butler (27-4) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (19-11) - San Jose
#7 Texas (23-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (25-8) - Buffalo
#8 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs. #9 Florida State (22-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (26-5) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (23-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 North Texas (22-8) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs. #14 Oakland (24-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Baylor (24-6) vs. #13 Murray State (30-4) - New Orleans
#5 BYU (28-4) vs. #12 Florida (20-11) - New Orleans
#6 Xavier (23-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (25-5) - Jacksonville
#7 Clemson (21-9) vs. #10 Missouri (22-9) - Milwaukee
#8 California (21-9) vs. #9 Marquette (20-10) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

MONDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC Championship) - Gonzaga is in the field no matter what. St. Mary's isn't too sure and sure could use the automatic bid. The Zags won the first two matchups.
William & Mary vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Championship) - If Old Dominion doesn't want to be on edge come Selection Sunday, they should just win this game.
Fairfield vs. Siena (MAAC Championship) - Siena might still get an at-large berth but they're not sure. They are sure though that with a win tonight, they're in.
Appalachian State vs. Wofford (SoCon Championship) - Wofford won the regular season title but Appalachian State won the only meeting between the two 77-76 at Wofford.

Now that the conference tournaments are underway, we're going daily here on Barnes Bracketology. Also, look for some special posts such as breaking down the bubble watch. Of course, this is all just my opinion of how things will shake out. You can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 5, 2010

For a bracketologist in training like myself, I could spend hours upon hours agonizing about who should make the field. I could compare numbers and weigh resumes all day. But in the end, I have to just go with my gut. Unlike in the selection committee's room, there's no one to convince one way or another. Instead, I have to convince myself, and sometimes, that isn't easy. For example, I have to convince myself all the time that Washington will be an at-large. I don't want to believe it but I do. Will that belief end up being true? We shall see...

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: There weren't any really teams that were in position to lock up their spot in the field. Dayton had the best chance with a win over Richmond but even I don't think that would have been enough.

LOCKS (33): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, and Florida State.


AUTOS: The conference tournaments have begun and that means the upsets are underway. In the Atlantic Sun, it was upset central. The 5, 6 and 8 seed all won first round matchups. Among the casualties was Belmont, who are out of this group. Returning to the group is Jacksonville.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Despite a small amount of games, there was one game that really impacted this group. That game being the Dayton @ Richmond game. Dayton lost a close one and while it's not a "bad loss", it's bad timing for a team that really needed to add another signature win to its resume. So for now, they are out and San Diego State is back in. Washington also won at Oregon but that's not worthy of moving up anywhere.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia Tech, Louisville, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Illinois, Rhode Island, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

No bubbles were burst yesterday so we stick with the same group of 28 but there has been some slight movement. Of course, Dayton moves down a bit after their loss to Richmond. They now need a good run in the A-10 tournament, which is possible. Moving up though is Arizona State, who beat a decent USC team and keeps their hopes alive. with a deep run in the Pac-10 tourney, they may crack the field.

BUBBLE (28): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UConn, Dayton, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, UAB, William & Mary, Cornell, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Memphis

That's the field. Let's move to the the seeding.

SEEDING

As expected, minimal changes to the bracket. Just inserted San Diego State back into the bracket as a 12 seed and replaced Belmont with Jacksonville. Other then that, yesterday's game didn't sway me enough to change any other seedings, though if Providence and Penn State could have pulled off big upsets over Pitt and Michigan State respectively, I would have been busy switching some teams around again.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (24-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (23-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - Spokane
#5 Texas A+M (21-8) vs. #12 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (23-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (22-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 Temple (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (20-9) - Spokane
#6 Maryland (22-7) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - San Jose
#7 Oklahoma State (20-9) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Buffalo
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 Wake Forest (18-9) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (28-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (28-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (25-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Rhode Island (21-7) - San Jose
#5 BYU (27-4) vs. #12 Notre Dame (20-10) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (22-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-5) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-5) vs. #15 Jacksonville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (23-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (22-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (22-7) - San Jose
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Louisville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#8 Missouri (22-8) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

FRIDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Cornell @ Brown - With a victory, Cornell wins the Ivy League title and officially earns the first spot in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
Kent State @ Akron - The two best teams in the MAC battle before the tournament. The winner here gets the momentum and the top seed.

SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Syracuse @ Louisville - If Louisville pulls off this victory, they will assure themselves a spot in the field. A 'Cuse loss may put the top overall seed back in play.
Kansas @ Missouri - If Kansas wants that top overall seed, they win this game. Missouri could improve seeding though with a clutch victory.
North Carolina @ Duke - Strictly a game for pride for UNC. Duke though is fighting for a 1 seed and can't afford to trip up to their rival.
Purdue @ Penn State - Penn State nearly beat Michigan State in East Lansing. So Purdue better be ready. They are fighting for a 2 seed and Big Ten title.
West Virginia @ Villanova - The winner can continue to dream of a 1 seed. The loser will be no better than a 2 seed, and possibly fall to a 3 seed later.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State - After losing to Auburn, MSU has to win this game. Meanwhile, Tennessee could use a quality road victory.
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt - Vandy has done well to avoid the huge upset. Losing at home though to South Carolina is possible and would hurt their seeding.
Cincinnati @ Georgetown - A must-win for the Bearcats, who are skating on thin ice. For the Hoyas, this game gives them a chance to stop their slide from a 2 seed to a 5 seed.
UAB @ UTEP - A UTEP win locks up their spot in the tournament. A UAB win improves their chances of an at-large spot but it still might not be enough.
Texas @ Baylor - One of those games that could really throw my bracket a twist. Depending on who wins could really shake up some seedings.
Maryland @ Virginia - If the Terps avoid the upset, they put themselves in great shape to move up a seed or two, especially with all the other action over the weekend.
Texas A+M @ Oklahoma - The Aggies are safely in the field but a 5 seed is surely nicer than a 6 seed. A loss on senior day in Norman could mean a fall from that 5 seed.
Florida State @ Miami (FL) - The 'Noles should be fine after Wednesday's win at Wake but to be safe, avoid this upset on the road and get to the ACC tourney.
Richmond @ Charlotte - I think the 49ers are toast now but who knows? With a win here and a run to the A-10 tourney finals, they could change my mind.
UConn @ South Florida - Two bubble teams on the outside looking in. South Florida must have it. UConn probably must have it too. 17-14 overall and 7-11 in conference play is not attractive.
Notre Dame @ Marquette - The Irish are doing everything right this time of year. Winnig big games against great teams. They win this one and a Big East tourney game, they will find themselves in great shape to make the field.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas - The Rebels still need more victories and more losses form other teams to feel good. Losing at Arkansas is just simply not an option.
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech - The Hokies could really use this road win. They have struggled to win meaningful games all year.
Rhode Island @ UMass - Should be an easy victory for the Rams but they've lost games like this already this year. They have to win this game to stay in consideration for an at-large spot.
California @ Stanford - One last road hurdle for the Bears before the Pac-10 tourney. They still may need to win that tourney to get in but every win helps their chances in case they don't.
Saint Louis @ Dayton - Dayton must win this game to stay in the discussion. A loss all but puts all the pressure on them to win the conference tournament.
Seton Hall @ Providence - The Pirates probably don't have any real chance of getting in but depending on who loses down the stretch, they just may be the lucky one.
Washington @ Oregon State - A dangerous game for the Huskies. They survived Eugene but now, must survive Corvallis. Huskies lose and they lose their projected at-large spot.
San Diego State @ Air Force - This shouldn't even be close. But if the Aztecs do get upset, they'll find themselves back on the outside looking in.

SUNDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Florida @ Kentucky - Florida may feel safely in but losing this game means a 3-game losing streak going into the SEC tournament. Lose early there and they will probably be NIT bound
Michigan @ Michigan State - After seeing the Spartans struggle against Penn State, one has to wonder just how good this team is. 2 seed could be on the line.
Wisconsin @ Illinois - I think a must-win for an Illinois team with a subpar RPI and SOS and on a losing streak. With a loss, it will take a deep Big Ten tourney run to make the NCAA tourney.
Clemson @ Wake Forest - Clemson can lose this game and feel fine. If Wake loses, that's 5 losses in a row. They may move from lock to bubble, which is NOT GOOD by any means.

As you can see, a ton of games to watch over the weekend. That also means my next post won't be up until Monday. When the post is up, expect a lot of changes. Starting Monday, I will be posting daily as conference tournaments get underway and even including some special posts.

As always, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 4, 2010

There's a reason they call it "March Madness". Not only does it refer to the great games that take place, but also to the selection process. It's not easy, especially when there are so many teams vying for so few spots. With each night, it's actually getting tougher to put the bracket together and choose the teams that make the field. That's because the number of available spots continue to shrink. But I will finish what I started. Don't worry.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With another day comes another new team locking up their spot in the tournament. This time, it's Florida State, who beat Wake Forest. That win should be enough for a team that probably had done enough already. For Wake though, they are in danger of actually losing lock status, something I would hate to do. But they've lost 4 in a row and if they lose their final 2, they may not make the field of 65.

LOCKS (33): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, and Florida State.


AUTOS: Nothing new here. But expect some changes soon as some of these conferences have begun their conference tourneys and upsets are bound to happen.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Finally seeing some action here. First, we're down to just 11 spots up for grabs. Second, we have some new teams joining the fray. Rhode Island rejoins this group after a break, thanks to their win over Charlotte. And then joining the group for the first time is Notre Dame, after a big win over UConn. That loss took UConn out of this group and Rhode Island's win knocked out San Diego State, who had a less meaningful win against Colorado State.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia Tech, Louisville, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Dayton, Illinois, and Rhode Island.

BUBBLE WATCH

Yet again, some bubbles have been burst. Today, it's Charlotte and Saint Louis. Both teams needed to win to really make some sort of splash but both lost, all but ending their chances are getting in the tournament via an at-large bid. There was a bit of shuffling among the bubble teams though. Losses by UConn, UAB, and Mississippi State didn't help their chances while wins by Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Rhode Island have them in great shape. Also, welcome Memphis to the discussion. After beating UAB, they have slim, slim chances.

BUBBLE (28): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Dayton, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UConn, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, UAB, William & Mary, Cornell, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, South Florida, Arizona State, Memphis and Arizona State.

Now on to the fun that is seeding.

SEEDING

No changes among the top 4 seeds, though Duke's loss makes that 4th 1 seed a little bit more vulnerable as we approach conference tourney time. Texas A+M moved up to a 5 seed as Gonzaga dropped to a 6 seed. Missouri was also on the rise to an 8 seed, moving Wake down to a 9 seed.

This is not my favorite bracket. Thankfully, I have plenty of days to tweak it before the final one.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo #2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (23-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - Spokane
#5 Texas A+M (21-8) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (22-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 Temple (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Maryland (22-7) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - San Jose
#7 Oklahoma State (20-9) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Buffalo
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 Wake Forest (18-9) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (28-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (27-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (25-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Rhode Island (21-7) - San Jose
#5 BYU (27-4) vs. #12 Notre Dame (20-10) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (22-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-5) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-5) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (22-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (22-7) - San Jose
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Louisville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#8 Missouri (22-8) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

THURSDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Penn State @ Michigan State - The Spartans should win easily but the Nittany Lions are dangerous when they want to be.
Providence @ Pittsburgh - Pitt should be fine too but this time of the year, desperate teams like Providence do weird things.
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - Pretty simple for the Hall. Lose and kiss your at-large dreams goodbye for now.
Dayton @ Richmond - HUGE game for both teams. Richmond could bump up in seeding with this win while Dayton could strengthen their chances of getting an at-large.
USC @ Arizona State - The Sun Devils may be at the end of the bubble watch but they are still alive. That is, if they win this game.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels need win out in the regular season and make some noise in the SEC tournament.
Washington @ Oregon - The Huskies lost to the Ducks earlier at home. They can't afford to lose to them on the road.

Another day, another post. Hope you'll check back tomorrow. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 3, 2010

As we head into the final 10 days or so of Bracketology, here are some things that I believe.

- I think no more than 8 Big East teams will get in. That means UConn, ND, Seton Hall, USF and Cincy are fighting for one spot (since L'Ville is in barring a meltdown). I'm not sure more than 8 will ever get in, even with 16 teams in the conference.
- I think the Pac-10 will get two bids. I just don't see how the committee will hold a "Power Six" conference to one bid. This would be the year if any but I'm not convinced it will actually happen.
- This will be the last year we refer to the A-10 and MWC as "mid-major" conferences in basketball. The A-10 could get 5 teams in. The MWC could get 4 teams. That's the same or more than the Pac-10, Big Ten, and SEC may get in this year.

With that in mind, here's the post for today, with some changes thanks to Tuesday's action.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: And we're up to 32. That's right, 3 more teams have been added to the LOCKS list. They are Clemson, Marquette, and Missouri. Clemson is in after beating AT-LARGE team Georgia Tech. Marquette earned their spot after defeating AT-LARGE team Louisville. Missouri jumped in with a road win at Iowa State. UTEP won and is very close.

LOCKS (32): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, and Missouri.


AUTOS: No changes here once again. All the names here either won or were idle.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Thanks to Tuesday's action, the order of the teams here have changed but the teams in this group have not. Florida and Illinois are in worse shape than they were thansk to losses, helping out teams like Dayton, UNLV, and Florida State.

AT-LARGE (15): Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, UNLV, UConn, St. Mary's, Florida, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Illinois, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

We saw some changes here. For one thing, some teams are out of the group. Some are happy to be out (Clemson, Missouri and Marquette) as they are now LOCKS. Others not so happy (Missouri, Northeastern and Wichita State) as they are now not even on the bubble watch. That leaves us with just 30 bubble teams. Cincy is in bad shape after failing to capitalize on a great opportunity for a big win at home against Villanova. More of these teams take to the court today so expect some more movement.

BUBBLE (30): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UConn, St. Mary's, Florida, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Cincinnati, South Florida, Arizona State and Saint Louis.

Now on to the fun that is seeding.

SEEDING

A decent amount of changes involved here too. Ohio State is up to a 2 seed after beating Illinois and clinching a share of the Big Ten title. Without Hummel, Purdue falls to a 3 seed. Clemson's win over GT moved them up to a 7 seed, knocking fellow ACC member Wake Forest to a 8 seed. UTEP moved up to a 9 seed while UNLV slipped to a 10 seed. Old Dominion is up to a 10 seed, while Florida fell to a 12 seed.

Some teams didn't change seeds but did change regions to accommodate other changes.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (23-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - New Orleans
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - New Orleans
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Buffalo
#8 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (27-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (24-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - San Jose #5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Virginia Tech (21-7) - San Jose
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Providence
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Oklahoma City
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

WEDNESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Kansas State @ Kansas - If KSU wants to have any chance of becoming a 1 seed, they need to win this game in Lawrence.
Kentucky @ Georgia - Losing at Tennessee is one thing. Losing at Georgia is another. Wildcats should handle the Dawgs or their 1 seed could be at risk.
Duke @ Maryland - A Duke loss means that 1 seed could be up for grabs once again. A Maryland win helps their seed even more.
Indiana @ Purdue - I normally don't put easy wins on here but Purdue needs to get some good mojo in this game as they look for their first win since Hummel's injury.
Temple @ Saint Louis - Huge game for SLU. With a win, they could really jump in the bubble discussion, especially since no one else has won a marquee game.
Oklahoma State @ Texas A+M - May or may not impact the seeding of both teams, depending on the result.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - The Demon Deacons are in freefall mode, which is not good for a team that's a lock. I would hate to move them to a bubble. FSU is a lock though with a win.
UConn @ Notre Dame - Hate to say an elimination game but it may just be. For ND, I think it no doubt is, especially with it being at home.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A couple of bubble teams battling to stay alive. A Charlotte loss probably bursts their bubble.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - If VT loses this home game, it will be a huge hit towards their at-large chances. And I mean huge.
Miss. State @ Auburn - The Bulldogs are still on the outside looking in. This road win will move them closer. A loss may have them staying outside the rest of the way.
Memphis @ UAB - Memphis is a fringe bubble contender so they need this badly. UAB is right in the hunt and with this win and then one over UTEP, could find themselves in the dance.

Well, there ya go. More great games tonight that are sure to shake things up in my field and in the seeding. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB