Barnes Bracketology - March 4, 2010

There's a reason they call it "March Madness". Not only does it refer to the great games that take place, but also to the selection process. It's not easy, especially when there are so many teams vying for so few spots. With each night, it's actually getting tougher to put the bracket together and choose the teams that make the field. That's because the number of available spots continue to shrink. But I will finish what I started. Don't worry.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: With another day comes another new team locking up their spot in the tournament. This time, it's Florida State, who beat Wake Forest. That win should be enough for a team that probably had done enough already. For Wake though, they are in danger of actually losing lock status, something I would hate to do. But they've lost 4 in a row and if they lose their final 2, they may not make the field of 65.

LOCKS (33): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, and Florida State.


AUTOS: Nothing new here. But expect some changes soon as some of these conferences have begun their conference tourneys and upsets are bound to happen.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Finally seeing some action here. First, we're down to just 11 spots up for grabs. Second, we have some new teams joining the fray. Rhode Island rejoins this group after a break, thanks to their win over Charlotte. And then joining the group for the first time is Notre Dame, after a big win over UConn. That loss took UConn out of this group and Rhode Island's win knocked out San Diego State, who had a less meaningful win against Colorado State.

AT-LARGE (11): Georgia Tech, Louisville, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Dayton, Illinois, and Rhode Island.

BUBBLE WATCH

Yet again, some bubbles have been burst. Today, it's Charlotte and Saint Louis. Both teams needed to win to really make some sort of splash but both lost, all but ending their chances are getting in the tournament via an at-large bid. There was a bit of shuffling among the bubble teams though. Losses by UConn, UAB, and Mississippi State didn't help their chances while wins by Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Rhode Island have them in great shape. Also, welcome Memphis to the discussion. After beating UAB, they have slim, slim chances.

BUBBLE (28): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, UNLV, St. Mary's, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Washington, Dayton, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UConn, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, UAB, William & Mary, Cornell, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, South Florida, Arizona State, Memphis and Arizona State.

Now on to the fun that is seeding.

SEEDING

No changes among the top 4 seeds, though Duke's loss makes that 4th 1 seed a little bit more vulnerable as we approach conference tourney time. Texas A+M moved up to a 5 seed as Gonzaga dropped to a 6 seed. Missouri was also on the rise to an 8 seed, moving Wake down to a 9 seed.

This is not my favorite bracket. Thankfully, I have plenty of days to tweak it before the final one.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo #2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (23-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - Spokane
#5 Texas A+M (21-8) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (28-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 New Mexico (28-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Wisconsin (22-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 Temple (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Maryland (22-7) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - San Jose
#7 Oklahoma State (20-9) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Buffalo
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 Wake Forest (18-9) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (28-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (27-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (25-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Rhode Island (21-7) - San Jose
#5 BYU (27-4) vs. #12 Notre Dame (20-10) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (22-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Florida State (21-8) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-5) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-5) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (22-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (22-7) - San Jose
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Louisville (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#8 Missouri (22-8) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

THURSDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Penn State @ Michigan State - The Spartans should win easily but the Nittany Lions are dangerous when they want to be.
Providence @ Pittsburgh - Pitt should be fine too but this time of the year, desperate teams like Providence do weird things.
Seton Hall @ Rutgers - Pretty simple for the Hall. Lose and kiss your at-large dreams goodbye for now.
Dayton @ Richmond - HUGE game for both teams. Richmond could bump up in seeding with this win while Dayton could strengthen their chances of getting an at-large.
USC @ Arizona State - The Sun Devils may be at the end of the bubble watch but they are still alive. That is, if they win this game.
LSU @ Ole Miss - The Rebels need win out in the regular season and make some noise in the SEC tournament.
Washington @ Oregon - The Huskies lost to the Ducks earlier at home. They can't afford to lose to them on the road.

Another day, another post. Hope you'll check back tomorrow. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 3, 2010

As we head into the final 10 days or so of Bracketology, here are some things that I believe.

- I think no more than 8 Big East teams will get in. That means UConn, ND, Seton Hall, USF and Cincy are fighting for one spot (since L'Ville is in barring a meltdown). I'm not sure more than 8 will ever get in, even with 16 teams in the conference.
- I think the Pac-10 will get two bids. I just don't see how the committee will hold a "Power Six" conference to one bid. This would be the year if any but I'm not convinced it will actually happen.
- This will be the last year we refer to the A-10 and MWC as "mid-major" conferences in basketball. The A-10 could get 5 teams in. The MWC could get 4 teams. That's the same or more than the Pac-10, Big Ten, and SEC may get in this year.

With that in mind, here's the post for today, with some changes thanks to Tuesday's action.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: And we're up to 32. That's right, 3 more teams have been added to the LOCKS list. They are Clemson, Marquette, and Missouri. Clemson is in after beating AT-LARGE team Georgia Tech. Marquette earned their spot after defeating AT-LARGE team Louisville. Missouri jumped in with a road win at Iowa State. UTEP won and is very close.

LOCKS (32): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Clemson, Marquette, and Missouri.


AUTOS: No changes here once again. All the names here either won or were idle.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Thanks to Tuesday's action, the order of the teams here have changed but the teams in this group have not. Florida and Illinois are in worse shape than they were thansk to losses, helping out teams like Dayton, UNLV, and Florida State.

AT-LARGE (15): Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, UNLV, UConn, St. Mary's, Florida, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Illinois, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

We saw some changes here. For one thing, some teams are out of the group. Some are happy to be out (Clemson, Missouri and Marquette) as they are now LOCKS. Others not so happy (Missouri, Northeastern and Wichita State) as they are now not even on the bubble watch. That leaves us with just 30 bubble teams. Cincy is in bad shape after failing to capitalize on a great opportunity for a big win at home against Villanova. More of these teams take to the court today so expect some more movement.

BUBBLE (30): UTEP, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UConn, St. Mary's, Florida, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, Illinois, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Cincinnati, South Florida, Arizona State and Saint Louis.

Now on to the fun that is seeding.

SEEDING

A decent amount of changes involved here too. Ohio State is up to a 2 seed after beating Illinois and clinching a share of the Big Ten title. Without Hummel, Purdue falls to a 3 seed. Clemson's win over GT moved them up to a 7 seed, knocking fellow ACC member Wake Forest to a 8 seed. UTEP moved up to a 9 seed while UNLV slipped to a 10 seed. Old Dominion is up to a 10 seed, while Florida fell to a 12 seed.

Some teams didn't change seeds but did change regions to accommodate other changes.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (28-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Ohio State (24-7) vs. #15 Morgan State (23-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Vanderbilt (23-6) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (25-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-10) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - Buffalo
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (28-4) - New Orleans
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - Spokane
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 Florida (20-10) - New Orleans
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Buffalo
#8 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (27-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (24-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Purdue (24-4) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (23-6) vs. #13 Weber State (19-9) - San Jose #5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Virginia Tech (21-7) - San Jose
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 St. Mary's (24-5) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 UNLV (22-7) - Providence
#8 Marquette (20-9) vs. #9 UTEP (23-5) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Illinois (18-12) - Jacksonville
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Clemson (21-8) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Oklahoma City
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

WEDNESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Kansas State @ Kansas - If KSU wants to have any chance of becoming a 1 seed, they need to win this game in Lawrence.
Kentucky @ Georgia - Losing at Tennessee is one thing. Losing at Georgia is another. Wildcats should handle the Dawgs or their 1 seed could be at risk.
Duke @ Maryland - A Duke loss means that 1 seed could be up for grabs once again. A Maryland win helps their seed even more.
Indiana @ Purdue - I normally don't put easy wins on here but Purdue needs to get some good mojo in this game as they look for their first win since Hummel's injury.
Temple @ Saint Louis - Huge game for SLU. With a win, they could really jump in the bubble discussion, especially since no one else has won a marquee game.
Oklahoma State @ Texas A+M - May or may not impact the seeding of both teams, depending on the result.
Wake Forest @ Florida State - The Demon Deacons are in freefall mode, which is not good for a team that's a lock. I would hate to move them to a bubble. FSU is a lock though with a win.
UConn @ Notre Dame - Hate to say an elimination game but it may just be. For ND, I think it no doubt is, especially with it being at home.
Charlotte @ Rhode Island - A couple of bubble teams battling to stay alive. A Charlotte loss probably bursts their bubble.
NC State @ Virginia Tech - If VT loses this home game, it will be a huge hit towards their at-large chances. And I mean huge.
Miss. State @ Auburn - The Bulldogs are still on the outside looking in. This road win will move them closer. A loss may have them staying outside the rest of the way.
Memphis @ UAB - Memphis is a fringe bubble contender so they need this badly. UAB is right in the hunt and with this win and then one over UTEP, could find themselves in the dance.

Well, there ya go. More great games tonight that are sure to shake things up in my field and in the seeding. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 2, 2010

After a wild weekend of games, it was a bit refreshing to just have 2-3 games that really mattered be played. That'll change though tomorrow thanks to a great slate of games tonight.

The big question in today's games is will the bubble teams step up? Many of the bubble teams are doing themselves no favors by losing. For some of the bubble teams, just a simple win could go a long way to their chances of making the tournament. That was the case for Clemson and Cal over the weekend, while other teams fell by the wayside. For now though, here is today's post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No changes here as expected. No team played yesterday that really had a chance to lock up their spot in the field.

LOCKS (29): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Richmond.


AUTOS: No changes here as Morgan State won, which works with my prediction of them winning the MEAC.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: NO changes here as none of these teams played on Monday.

AT-LARGE (15): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Florida State, UNLV, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton Virginia Tech, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

Only one team out of this group played yesterday and that was Utah State who thrashed Fresno State as expected. Because of that, they're staying where they are. Should see some movement here though tomorrow as some of these teams are in action.

BUBBLE (36): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UTEP, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Minnesota, South Florida, Northeastern, Arizona State, Wichita State, and Saint Louis.

So no changes in the field. But there is a change in the seeding.

SEEDING

Despite the lack of games, there was a change in the seeding. The change is thanks to Georgetown. The Hoyas have been (cue Tom Petty) freefalling. They've lost 4 of their last 5, and at 19-9 and 9-8 in the Big East, they are no longer worthy of a #4 seed. The team that is gonna benefit from their fall is Baylor, who has really played great as of late. They have an RPI of 11, and 5 top-50 RPI victories, one less than Kentucky.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (27-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Purdue (24-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (22-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (24-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-9) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (27-4) - Buffalo
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 St. Mary's (24-5) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-7) - Buffalo
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida (20-9) - New Orleans
#8 Clemson (20-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (26-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (23-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (23-7) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (22-6) vs. #Weber State (19-9) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Jacksonville
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 UNLV (22-7) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Vanderbilt (22-6) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Illinois (18-11) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #10 UTEP (22-5) - Oklahoma City
#8 Marquette (19-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

TUESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Illinois @ Ohio State - A win by Illinois would do wonders for their chances. A loss may knock them out. As for OSU, a win could mean a #2 seed.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - Simply put, a must-win game for Cincy. For Nova, not that much at stake as their #2 seed seems safe win or lose.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - Vanderbilt still has time to improve their seeding, and a road win in Gator country could do that. As for the Gators, they need this win badly, especially since their last game is at Kentucky.
UTEP @ Marshall - The Miners are getting close to locking up their spot, thanks to their 12-game win streak. But winning at Marshall won't be easy.
Baylor @ Texas Tech - The Bears just got the #4 seed in my bracket. A loss would force me to take it right back.
Minnesota @ Michigan - Thanks to losses by others, Minnesota has crept back into Bubble talk. But a loss in Ann Arbor would quiet all of that talk.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF's faint hopes of making the tournament depend on this game. A true must-win for the Bulls.
Missouri @ Iowa State - The Tigers are close to getting in. Very very close. Depending on other teams, winning this road game may be enough.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - The top two teams on the bubble so I have no problem saying the winner of this game locks up their spot.
Louisville @ Marquette - Teams number 3 and 4 on the bubble so again, I have no problem saying the winner of this game locks up their spot.

That's the post for you today. Enjoy the games tonight and make sure to check back here tomorrow. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 1, 2010

3 hours. That's how long it took me to put this latest bracket together. Normally, once I make an initial bracket, the time it takes me to make a new one drops drastically. But this past weekend's games made that quite difficult. In case you missed any of it, 3 of my top seeds lost (Kansas, Kentucky and Purdue) and 11 bubble teams lost (among them were Missouri, Florida, Illinois, UConn). That meant lots of shifting from the top of the bracket to the bottom. It also meant a long night but hey, that's bracketology.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: For the first time, we have some changes in this category. Thanks to their win over a quality Illinois State team, Northern Iowa has finally joined this group. Also new are Maryland and Oklahoma State. The Terps have won 5 in a row, including wins over projected tourney teams in the last 3. Meanwhile, OK State locked up their spot with a resounding win at home over Kansas. Finally, I added Richmond to the list. The Spiders actually lost over the weekend but the way they competed with Xavier on the road was enough for me and should be with the committee too for a team with their resume.

LOCKS (29): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Richmond.


AUTOS: A couple changes here as well. In the Atlantic Sun, there's a 4-way tie for first place. For now, I'm going with Belmont. Also, in the Northeast, I'm replacing Robert Morris with Quinnipiac. We're also very close to putting Cornell in bold to signify they have won the automatic bid. The Big Red are just one win away from winning the Ivy League.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: No doubt with 11BUBBLE teams losing, this section saw some momement. For one thing, the number of spots in the group fell to 15. Some teams did themselves good by just winning while others are really hurting now. The biggest move was made by Marquette who jumpedup in this group with a big road win against Seton Hall, a fellow BUBBLE team. Also new is San Diego State, who benefited despite not playing a game.

Of course, some teams fell too. Florida, Illinois, Virginia Tech and UConn all lost but thanks to not many wins from teams below them, they didn't fall far if at all. Rhode Island though was not so lucky. The Rams have now lost 4 of their last 5, including Saturday;s inexplicable loss at St. Bonaventure. They are now out of this group and in need of a big win to get back in

AT-LARGE (15): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Florida State, UNLV, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton Virginia Tech, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

This group got a bit smaller, thanks to 4 teams locking up their spots over the weekend. At the same time, I added two teams to the fray just because I think it's a bit premature to say they don't have a shot to make the field. The big movers include Cal, who beat fellow bubble team Arizona State, Old Dominion, UTEP and Marquette. Also among the big movers is Notre Dame. The Irish are playing like a desperate team and it's working. They beat Pitt and Georgetown on the road. That leaves them about one or two big wins from cracking the AT-LARGE group.

Meanwhile, teams like Charlotte, Cincinnati, Seton Hall and Arizona State may be running out of time. For all of them, it may take a long conference tournament run or win to get their spot in the field. As for the new additions, welcome back Saint Louis and say hello to Minnesota, who won at Illinois to jump into this group.

BUBBLE (36): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UTEP, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Minnesota, South Florida, Northeastern, Arizona State, Wichita State, and Saint Louis.

So there's the field and the bubble teams. On to the craziness that is seeding.

SEEDING

This was not easy at all. Again, all the upsets really made it tough as teams jumped and fell from the seeds I gave them just 3 days ago. Among the major changes, Duke replaces Purdue as a #1 seed. Syracuse takes over as top overall seed. New Mexico moves up to a #3 seed while Georgetown falls to a #4. Also, Tennessee's win over Kentucky moved them up to a #4 while Gonzaga fell to a #5. Losses by Wake Forest, Texas, Richmond and Florida State moved their seeding down a spot while wins by Maryland, Oklahoma State, Marquette, and Northern Iowa improved their seeds by 1 or 2 spots.

I really like this bracket as it keeps any of the 8 Big East teams from meeting each other until the Elite Eight. Also, the other conference are spread out rather evenly among the regions such as the 4 A-10 teams, who can be all be found in a different region.

Also, in an effort to improve this series everyday, I will begin to color-code the teams so you know whether they moved up or down. Green means moved up while red means they moved down. Black means they stayed neutral. For now, it will only be on the blog. I will work it onto the bracket later.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (27-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Purdue (24-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (22-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (24-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (23-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-9) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (22-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (27-4) - Buffalo
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 St. Mary's (24-5) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-7) - Buffalo
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida (20-9) - New Orleans
#8 Clemson (20-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (26-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (23-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (23-7) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Georgetown (19-8) vs. #Weber State (19-9) - Jacksonville
#5 Baylor (22-6) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Jacksonville
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (22-7) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 UNLV (22-7) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Vanderbilt (22-6) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Illinois (18-11) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #10 UTEP (22-5) - Oklahoma City
#8 Marquette (19-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

MONDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Georgetown @ West Virginia - The Hoyas can make up some ground that they lost with a win here. WVU seems pretty safe in the #2 seed no matter what.
Oklahoma @ Texas - The Longhorns should win this game. If they don't, their freefall in the seeding may continue.

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have another update for you tomorrow, though it won't be much considering the two games above are about the only ones worth watching. I probably wouldn't expect much movement until after Tuesday night. Don't forget though, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - February 26, 2010

The day has come my friends. I have completed my first projected bracket. After days of just giving you my field of 65, I have seeded them and placed them in regionals. It took about 2 hours, which may sound extreme but considering all that goes into the bracket, that's not too bad. In fact, I would have been done 10 minutes but I found a mistake on the last team, which caused me to shuffle teams again.

All in all though, I'm satisfied with it for now. Of course, there will be numerous changes to it from now until Selection Sunday so make sure you keep checking back as the days go by.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No games yesterday really had any impact on this category. This weekend though could see teams like Maryland, Missouri, Richmond, and Northern Iowa clinch spots in the field.

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.


AUTOS: There actually was a change here. Jacksonville and Kent State join the group while Campbell and Akron leave. Again, this is simply my prediction of who will ultimately win the conference tournament so most teams here should not really feel all that safe.

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Even when teams aren't playing, I'm checking the numbers. After checking them even more closely, I've made a few adjustments to this. A major adjustment comes in the form of a mistake. UTEP was on this list yesterday. Thing is, they are in the AUTO category, so I had them in the field twice. Hence, only having 64 teams in the field. I have corrected the mistake today and added Dayton to the field.

AT-LARGE (18): Richmond, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Florida, UTEP, Marquette, UConn, Illinois, Washington, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Dayton.

BUBBLE WATCH

The group is still the same. In fact, all teams in this category won yesterday so no one hurt themselves. Arizona State and Utah State won road games while St. Mary's and California defended their homecourt. The wins did little though in terms of movement as all were expected victories.

BUBBLE (39): Richmond, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Florida, UTEP, Marquette, UConn, Illinois, Old Dominion, Washington, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, California, Utah State, Dayton, Siena, San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, UAB, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Arizona State, William & Mary, Mississippi State, South Florida, Northeastern, Wichita State, and Cornell.

That's the field. Now for the seeding..

SEEDING

As I said in the intro, making the bracket was not easy. There are just so many factors to be considered. Things like making sure the 8 Big East teams I have in the field do not meet until the Sweet 16 at the earliest or better yet, the Elite Eight (which I almost did). Also had to avoid a replay of a game in the regular season until at least the Sweet 16, which I think I also did successfully. So without further adieu, here is the bracket:

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (27-1) vs. #16 Robert Morris (20-10) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (21-6) vs. #15 Jacksonville (18-10) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (21-7) vs. #14 Murray State (26-4) - Buffalo
#4 Vanderbilt (26-3) vs. #13 Kent State (21-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-3) vs. #12 Rhode Island (20-6) - San Jose
#6 Butler (25-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-6) - Buffalo
#7 Missouri (21-7) vs. #10 Siena (22-6) - New Orleans
#8 Florida State (22-7) vs. #9 Louisville (18-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-1) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (25-5) - New Orleans
#2 Kansas State (23-4) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (18-12) - Oklahoma City
#3 Georgetown (19-7) vs. #14 Oakland (22-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Cornell (23-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (23-5) vs. #12 Washington (18-9) - Spokane
#6 Wake Forest (18-7) vs. #11 Utah State (23-6) - Jacksonville
#7 Richmond (22-6) vs. #10 Marquette (18-9) - Oklahoma City
#8 Oklahoma State (19-8) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (18-9) - New Orleans

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (26-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (18-10)/Jackson State (15-11) - Buffalo
#2 Duke (24-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-8) - Jacksonville
#3 Pittsburgh (21-7) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (20-6) - Providence
#4 New Mexico (26-3) vs. #13 St. Mary's (23-5) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (20-7) vs. #12 Old Dominion (22-8) - San Jose
#6 Texas A&M (19-8) vs. #11 Illinois (18-10) - Providence
#7 Xavier (20-7) vs. #10 UTEP (21-5) - Jacksonville
#8 Northern Iowa (24-4) vs. #9 Clemson (19-8) - Buffalo

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Purdue (24-3) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-7) - Milwaukee
#2 Villanova (23-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (21-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (22-7) vs. #14 Wofford (22-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Gonzaga (23-5) vs. #13 Weber State (18-8) - Spokane
#5 Baylor (21-6) vs. #12 UConn (17-11) - Spokane
#6 Texas (22-6) vs. #11 Dayton (18-9) - Milwaukee
#7 Maryland (20-7) vs. #10 Florida (20-8) - Providence
#8 Califonia (19-9) vs. #9 UNLV (21-7) - Milwaukee

*Top overall seed

FRIDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Princeton @ Cornell - The Big Red would all but lock up the conference regular season title with a victory
Siena @ Niagara - If the Saints have any chance of getting an at-large spot, they can't afford to lose this game. Of course, they could just win the conference tourney.

SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Kansas @ Oklahoma State - OK State could lock up their spot in the tourney with a win. Kansas just looking to hold on to the top overall seed.
Kentucky @ Tennessee - Huge game for both. UK could grab the top seed in the tourney while Tennessee would love to move up in the seeding.
Villanova @ Syracuse - Winner is a #1 seed and loser a #2 seed? That kind of stakes possibly in this game.
Missouri @ Kansas State - The Tigers would be a lock with a victory. Kansas State would still be in the hunt for a #1 seed with a victory.
Cincinnati @ West Virginia - Cincy needs a big win badly. This would qualify.
Michigan @ Ohio State - There's no hope for Michigan but for OSU, a #2 seed is attainable if they can finish strong and get some help.
New Mexico @ BYU - Besides Syracuse-Nove, this is the game of the day. Winner gets the #4 seed that New Mexico currently holds. New Mexico won the first matchup.
Notre Dame @ Georgetown - The Irish stayed in the bubble conversation with their win over Pitt. If they can beat Georgetown in DC, they may find themselves in the tournament.
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas - Vandy seems to always be skating on thin ice. They barely beat Georgia at home. Now, they face a tough Arkansas squad on the road.
Texas @ Texas A&M - The Aggies would love another marquee win. Texas is just hoping their recent good play doesn't end here. Both could really improve seeding with a win.
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - Pretty simple for UNI. Lose and stay on the bubble. Win and you're in. That was also the case against 7-win Evansville earlier in the week.
Rice @ UTEP - With a win, the Miners would have a 12-game win streak. That screams near-lock status.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech - GT just needs to worry about winning so they don't need to worry come Selection Sunday
Arizona State @ California - Huge Pac-10 battle. Winner really helps their case for an at-large in case they trip up in the tournament.
Florida @ Georgia - Gators are in good shape...for now. But a loss at lowly Georgia would not look good, even though the Dawgs are playing great against good teams.
Maryland @ Virginia Tech - Neither team is a lock but VT needs this much more than MD. If MD wins, they're in no doubt.
Minnesota @ Illinois - Illinois has no wiggle room. They must win this game or count on a deep run in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina - The Bulldogs are barely in the discussion already. A loss takes them completely out of it.
Loyola-Marymount @ St. Mary's - Loyola just beat Gonzaga so the Gaels better come ready to play. They can't afford one misstep.

SUNDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan State @ Purdue - Big Ten title on the line. #1 seed on the line too. Bad time for Purdue to lose star Robbie Hummel for the season.
Richmond @ Xavier - With a loss, Richmond is still in good shape. But with a win, they can breathe easy cause they'll be a lock for the tournament.
Marquette @ Seton Hall - A battle of bubble teams. Seton Hall needs every win and a good conference tourney run. Marquette will do themselves a lot of good with this solid road victory.
Louisville @ Connecticut - You hate to say elimination game here but it may just be. L'Ville needs a solid road win and UConn just can't afford more losses.
Clemson @ Florida State - Both teams are safe for now but the loser of this game may have to start worrying a bit.

Yeah, a lot of great games to comes this weekend. Hope you find time to watch them all, even with the Olympics going on.

I will not be posting over the weekend. I'll come back with a new post and new bracket on Monday after all these great games. Don't forget though, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page. I'll be tweeting about the great games and more all weekend for sure.

MB