Barnes Bracketology - March 2, 2010

After a wild weekend of games, it was a bit refreshing to just have 2-3 games that really mattered be played. That'll change though tomorrow thanks to a great slate of games tonight.

The big question in today's games is will the bubble teams step up? Many of the bubble teams are doing themselves no favors by losing. For some of the bubble teams, just a simple win could go a long way to their chances of making the tournament. That was the case for Clemson and Cal over the weekend, while other teams fell by the wayside. For now though, here is today's post.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No changes here as expected. No team played yesterday that really had a chance to lock up their spot in the field.

LOCKS (29): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Richmond.


AUTOS: No changes here as Morgan State won, which works with my prediction of them winning the MEAC.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: NO changes here as none of these teams played on Monday.

AT-LARGE (15): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Florida State, UNLV, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton Virginia Tech, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

Only one team out of this group played yesterday and that was Utah State who thrashed Fresno State as expected. Because of that, they're staying where they are. Should see some movement here though tomorrow as some of these teams are in action.

BUBBLE (36): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UTEP, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Minnesota, South Florida, Northeastern, Arizona State, Wichita State, and Saint Louis.

So no changes in the field. But there is a change in the seeding.

SEEDING

Despite the lack of games, there was a change in the seeding. The change is thanks to Georgetown. The Hoyas have been (cue Tom Petty) freefalling. They've lost 4 of their last 5, and at 19-9 and 9-8 in the Big East, they are no longer worthy of a #4 seed. The team that is gonna benefit from their fall is Baylor, who has really played great as of late. They have an RPI of 11, and 5 top-50 RPI victories, one less than Kentucky.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (27-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Purdue (24-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (22-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (24-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (24-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-9) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (23-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (27-4) - Buffalo
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 St. Mary's (24-5) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-7) - Buffalo
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida (20-9) - New Orleans
#8 Clemson (20-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (26-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (23-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (23-7) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Baylor (22-6) vs. #Weber State (19-9) - Jacksonville
#5 Georgetown (19-9) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Jacksonville
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (23-7) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 UNLV (22-7) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Vanderbilt (22-6) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Illinois (18-11) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #10 UTEP (22-5) - Oklahoma City
#8 Marquette (19-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

TUESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Illinois @ Ohio State - A win by Illinois would do wonders for their chances. A loss may knock them out. As for OSU, a win could mean a #2 seed.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - Simply put, a must-win game for Cincy. For Nova, not that much at stake as their #2 seed seems safe win or lose.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - Vanderbilt still has time to improve their seeding, and a road win in Gator country could do that. As for the Gators, they need this win badly, especially since their last game is at Kentucky.
UTEP @ Marshall - The Miners are getting close to locking up their spot, thanks to their 12-game win streak. But winning at Marshall won't be easy.
Baylor @ Texas Tech - The Bears just got the #4 seed in my bracket. A loss would force me to take it right back.
Minnesota @ Michigan - Thanks to losses by others, Minnesota has crept back into Bubble talk. But a loss in Ann Arbor would quiet all of that talk.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF's faint hopes of making the tournament depend on this game. A true must-win for the Bulls.
Missouri @ Iowa State - The Tigers are close to getting in. Very very close. Depending on other teams, winning this road game may be enough.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - The top two teams on the bubble so I have no problem saying the winner of this game locks up their spot.
Louisville @ Marquette - Teams number 3 and 4 on the bubble so again, I have no problem saying the winner of this game locks up their spot.

That's the post for you today. Enjoy the games tonight and make sure to check back here tomorrow. Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - March 1, 2010

3 hours. That's how long it took me to put this latest bracket together. Normally, once I make an initial bracket, the time it takes me to make a new one drops drastically. But this past weekend's games made that quite difficult. In case you missed any of it, 3 of my top seeds lost (Kansas, Kentucky and Purdue) and 11 bubble teams lost (among them were Missouri, Florida, Illinois, UConn). That meant lots of shifting from the top of the bracket to the bottom. It also meant a long night but hey, that's bracketology.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: For the first time, we have some changes in this category. Thanks to their win over a quality Illinois State team, Northern Iowa has finally joined this group. Also new are Maryland and Oklahoma State. The Terps have won 5 in a row, including wins over projected tourney teams in the last 3. Meanwhile, OK State locked up their spot with a resounding win at home over Kansas. Finally, I added Richmond to the list. The Spiders actually lost over the weekend but the way they competed with Xavier on the road was enough for me and should be with the committee too for a team with their resume.

LOCKS (29): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Richmond.


AUTOS: A couple changes here as well. In the Atlantic Sun, there's a 4-way tie for first place. For now, I'm going with Belmont. Also, in the Northeast, I'm replacing Robert Morris with Quinnipiac. We're also very close to putting Cornell in bold to signify they have won the automatic bid. The Big Red are just one win away from winning the Ivy League.

AUTOS (21): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Belmont, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, Northeast - Quinnipiac, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: No doubt with 11BUBBLE teams losing, this section saw some momement. For one thing, the number of spots in the group fell to 15. Some teams did themselves good by just winning while others are really hurting now. The biggest move was made by Marquette who jumpedup in this group with a big road win against Seton Hall, a fellow BUBBLE team. Also new is San Diego State, who benefited despite not playing a game.

Of course, some teams fell too. Florida, Illinois, Virginia Tech and UConn all lost but thanks to not many wins from teams below them, they didn't fall far if at all. Rhode Island though was not so lucky. The Rams have now lost 4 of their last 5, including Saturday;s inexplicable loss at St. Bonaventure. They are now out of this group and in need of a big win to get back in

AT-LARGE (15): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Florida State, UNLV, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton Virginia Tech, and San Diego State.

BUBBLE WATCH

This group got a bit smaller, thanks to 4 teams locking up their spots over the weekend. At the same time, I added two teams to the fray just because I think it's a bit premature to say they don't have a shot to make the field. The big movers include Cal, who beat fellow bubble team Arizona State, Old Dominion, UTEP and Marquette. Also among the big movers is Notre Dame. The Irish are playing like a desperate team and it's working. They beat Pitt and Georgetown on the road. That leaves them about one or two big wins from cracking the AT-LARGE group.

Meanwhile, teams like Charlotte, Cincinnati, Seton Hall and Arizona State may be running out of time. For all of them, it may take a long conference tournament run or win to get their spot in the field. As for the new additions, welcome back Saint Louis and say hello to Minnesota, who won at Illinois to jump into this group.

BUBBLE (36): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Missouri, Old Dominion, California, Florida State, UNLV, UTEP, Florida, UConn, Illinois, St. Mary's, Washington, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Siena, Utah State, San Diego State, UAB, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Charlotte, Cornell, Minnesota, South Florida, Northeastern, Arizona State, Wichita State, and Saint Louis.

So there's the field and the bubble teams. On to the craziness that is seeding.

SEEDING

This was not easy at all. Again, all the upsets really made it tough as teams jumped and fell from the seeds I gave them just 3 days ago. Among the major changes, Duke replaces Purdue as a #1 seed. Syracuse takes over as top overall seed. New Mexico moves up to a #3 seed while Georgetown falls to a #4. Also, Tennessee's win over Kentucky moved them up to a #4 while Gonzaga fell to a #5. Losses by Wake Forest, Texas, Richmond and Florida State moved their seeding down a spot while wins by Maryland, Oklahoma State, Marquette, and Northern Iowa improved their seeds by 1 or 2 spots.

I really like this bracket as it keeps any of the 8 Big East teams from meeting each other until the Elite Eight. Also, the other conference are spread out rather evenly among the regions such as the 4 A-10 teams, who can be all be found in a different region.

Also, in an effort to improve this series everyday, I will begin to color-code the teams so you know whether they moved up or down. Green means moved up while red means they moved down. Black means they stayed neutral. For now, it will only be on the blog. I will work it onto the bracket later.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
SOUTH vs. EAST

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Syracuse* (27-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (19-10)/Jackson State (16-11) - Buffalo
#2 Purdue (24-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (22-9) - Milwaukee
#3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs. #14 Oakland (23-8) - Providence
#4 Tennessee (21-7) vs. #13 San Diego State (20-8) - Spokane
#5 Gonzaga (24-5) vs. #12 Washington (19-9) - Spokane
#6 Texas A+M (20-8) vs. #11 Utah State (23-6) - Providence
#7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. #10 Florida State (20-8) - Milwaukee
#8 Richmond (22-7) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (19-9) - Buffalo

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Kansas (27-2) vs. #16 Quinnipiac (21-8) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (22-6) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (19-12) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (22-7) vs. #14 Murray State (27-4) - Buffalo
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Kent State (22-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-4) vs. #12 St. Mary's (24-5) - San Jose
#6 Xavier (21-7) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-7) - Buffalo
#7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs. #10 Florida (20-9) - New Orleans
#8 Clemson (20-8) vs. #9 Louisville (19-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-2) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (26-5) - New Orleans
#2 Villanova (23-5) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (23-7) vs. #14 Wofford (23-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Georgetown (19-8) vs. #Weber State (19-9) - Jacksonville
#5 Baylor (22-6) vs. #12 Dayton (19-9) - Jacksonville
#6 Maryland (21-7) vs. #11 Old Dominion (23-8) - Milwaukee
#7 Texas (22-7) vs. #10 Siena (24-6) - Providence
#8 California (20-9) vs. #9 UNLV (22-7) - New Orleans

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Duke (25-4) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-8) - Jacksonville
#2 Kansas State (24-4) vs. #15 Belmont (19-11) - Oklahoma City
#3 New Mexico (27-3) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (21-6) - San Jose
#4 Vanderbilt (22-6) vs. #13 Cornell (25-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (24-5) vs. #12 Illinois (18-11) - Spokane
#6 Butler (26-4) vs. #11 UConn (17-12) - San Jose
#7 Wake Forest (18-8) vs. #10 UTEP (22-5) - Oklahoma City
#8 Marquette (19-9) vs. #9 Missouri (21-8) - Jacksonville

*Top overall seed

MONDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Georgetown @ West Virginia - The Hoyas can make up some ground that they lost with a win here. WVU seems pretty safe in the #2 seed no matter what.
Oklahoma @ Texas - The Longhorns should win this game. If they don't, their freefall in the seeding may continue.

Alright, that's all for now. I'll have another update for you tomorrow, though it won't be much considering the two games above are about the only ones worth watching. I probably wouldn't expect much movement until after Tuesday night. Don't forget though, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - February 26, 2010

The day has come my friends. I have completed my first projected bracket. After days of just giving you my field of 65, I have seeded them and placed them in regionals. It took about 2 hours, which may sound extreme but considering all that goes into the bracket, that's not too bad. In fact, I would have been done 10 minutes but I found a mistake on the last team, which caused me to shuffle teams again.

All in all though, I'm satisfied with it for now. Of course, there will be numerous changes to it from now until Selection Sunday so make sure you keep checking back as the days go by.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: No games yesterday really had any impact on this category. This weekend though could see teams like Maryland, Missouri, Richmond, and Northern Iowa clinch spots in the field.

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.


AUTOS: There actually was a change here. Jacksonville and Kent State join the group while Campbell and Akron leave. Again, this is simply my prediction of who will ultimately win the conference tournament so most teams here should not really feel all that safe.

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Kent State, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Even when teams aren't playing, I'm checking the numbers. After checking them even more closely, I've made a few adjustments to this. A major adjustment comes in the form of a mistake. UTEP was on this list yesterday. Thing is, they are in the AUTO category, so I had them in the field twice. Hence, only having 64 teams in the field. I have corrected the mistake today and added Dayton to the field.

AT-LARGE (18): Richmond, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Florida, UTEP, Marquette, UConn, Illinois, Washington, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Dayton.

BUBBLE WATCH

The group is still the same. In fact, all teams in this category won yesterday so no one hurt themselves. Arizona State and Utah State won road games while St. Mary's and California defended their homecourt. The wins did little though in terms of movement as all were expected victories.

BUBBLE (39): Richmond, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Florida, UTEP, Marquette, UConn, Illinois, Old Dominion, Washington, St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, California, Utah State, Dayton, Siena, San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, UAB, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Arizona State, William & Mary, Mississippi State, South Florida, Northeastern, Wichita State, and Cornell.

That's the field. Now for the seeding..

SEEDING

As I said in the intro, making the bracket was not easy. There are just so many factors to be considered. Things like making sure the 8 Big East teams I have in the field do not meet until the Sweet 16 at the earliest or better yet, the Elite Eight (which I almost did). Also had to avoid a replay of a game in the regular season until at least the Sweet 16, which I think I also did successfully. So without further adieu, here is the bracket:

(click on bracket to enlarge)

MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
#1 Kansas* (27-1) vs. #16 Robert Morris (20-10) - Oklahoma City
#2 West Virginia (21-6) vs. #15 Jacksonville (18-10) - New Orleans
#3 Michigan State (21-7) vs. #14 Murray State (26-4) - Buffalo
#4 Vanderbilt (26-3) vs. #13 Kent State (21-8) - San Jose
#5 BYU (26-3) vs. #12 Rhode Island (20-6) - San Jose
#6 Butler (25-4) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (21-6) - Buffalo
#7 Missouri (21-7) vs. #10 Siena (22-6) - New Orleans
#8 Florida State (22-7) vs. #9 Louisville (18-10) - Oklahoma City

EAST REGION - Syracuse
#1 Kentucky (27-1) vs. #16 Coastal Carolina (25-5) - New Orleans
#2 Kansas State (23-4) vs. #15 Middle Tenn. St. (18-12) - Oklahoma City
#3 Georgetown (19-7) vs. #14 Oakland (22-8) - Jacksonville
#4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs. #13 Cornell (23-4) - Spokane
#5 Temple (23-5) vs. #12 Washington (18-9) - Spokane
#6 Wake Forest (18-7) vs. #11 Utah State (23-6) - Jacksonville
#7 Richmond (22-6) vs. #10 Marquette (18-9) - Oklahoma City
#8 Oklahoma State (19-8) vs. #9 Georgia Tech (18-9) - New Orleans

SOUTH REGION - Houston
#1 Syracuse (26-2) vs. #16 Lehigh (18-10)/Jackson State (15-11) - Buffalo
#2 Duke (24-4) vs. #15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-8) - Jacksonville
#3 Pittsburgh (21-7) vs. #14 Sam Houston State (20-6) - Providence
#4 New Mexico (26-3) vs. #13 St. Mary's (23-5) - San Jose
#5 Tennessee (20-7) vs. #12 Old Dominion (22-8) - San Jose
#6 Texas A&M (19-8) vs. #11 Illinois (18-10) - Providence
#7 Xavier (20-7) vs. #10 UTEP (21-5) - Jacksonville
#8 Northern Iowa (24-4) vs. #9 Clemson (19-8) - Buffalo

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
#1 Purdue (24-3) vs. #16 Stony Brook (21-7) - Milwaukee
#2 Villanova (23-4) vs. #15 Morgan State (21-9) - Providence
#3 Ohio State (22-7) vs. #14 Wofford (22-8) - Milwaukee
#4 Gonzaga (23-5) vs. #13 Weber State (18-8) - Spokane
#5 Baylor (21-6) vs. #12 UConn (17-11) - Spokane
#6 Texas (22-6) vs. #11 Dayton (18-9) - Milwaukee
#7 Maryland (20-7) vs. #10 Florida (20-8) - Providence
#8 Califonia (19-9) vs. #9 UNLV (21-7) - Milwaukee

*Top overall seed

FRIDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Princeton @ Cornell - The Big Red would all but lock up the conference regular season title with a victory
Siena @ Niagara - If the Saints have any chance of getting an at-large spot, they can't afford to lose this game. Of course, they could just win the conference tourney.

SATURDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Kansas @ Oklahoma State - OK State could lock up their spot in the tourney with a win. Kansas just looking to hold on to the top overall seed.
Kentucky @ Tennessee - Huge game for both. UK could grab the top seed in the tourney while Tennessee would love to move up in the seeding.
Villanova @ Syracuse - Winner is a #1 seed and loser a #2 seed? That kind of stakes possibly in this game.
Missouri @ Kansas State - The Tigers would be a lock with a victory. Kansas State would still be in the hunt for a #1 seed with a victory.
Cincinnati @ West Virginia - Cincy needs a big win badly. This would qualify.
Michigan @ Ohio State - There's no hope for Michigan but for OSU, a #2 seed is attainable if they can finish strong and get some help.
New Mexico @ BYU - Besides Syracuse-Nove, this is the game of the day. Winner gets the #4 seed that New Mexico currently holds. New Mexico won the first matchup.
Notre Dame @ Georgetown - The Irish stayed in the bubble conversation with their win over Pitt. If they can beat Georgetown in DC, they may find themselves in the tournament.
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas - Vandy seems to always be skating on thin ice. They barely beat Georgia at home. Now, they face a tough Arkansas squad on the road.
Texas @ Texas A&M - The Aggies would love another marquee win. Texas is just hoping their recent good play doesn't end here. Both could really improve seeding with a win.
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - Pretty simple for UNI. Lose and stay on the bubble. Win and you're in. That was also the case against 7-win Evansville earlier in the week.
Rice @ UTEP - With a win, the Miners would have a 12-game win streak. That screams near-lock status.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech - GT just needs to worry about winning so they don't need to worry come Selection Sunday
Arizona State @ California - Huge Pac-10 battle. Winner really helps their case for an at-large in case they trip up in the tournament.
Florida @ Georgia - Gators are in good shape...for now. But a loss at lowly Georgia would not look good, even though the Dawgs are playing great against good teams.
Maryland @ Virginia Tech - Neither team is a lock but VT needs this much more than MD. If MD wins, they're in no doubt.
Minnesota @ Illinois - Illinois has no wiggle room. They must win this game or count on a deep run in the conference tournament.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina - The Bulldogs are barely in the discussion already. A loss takes them completely out of it.
Loyola-Marymount @ St. Mary's - Loyola just beat Gonzaga so the Gaels better come ready to play. They can't afford one misstep.

SUNDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Michigan State @ Purdue - Big Ten title on the line. #1 seed on the line too. Bad time for Purdue to lose star Robbie Hummel for the season.
Richmond @ Xavier - With a loss, Richmond is still in good shape. But with a win, they can breathe easy cause they'll be a lock for the tournament.
Marquette @ Seton Hall - A battle of bubble teams. Seton Hall needs every win and a good conference tourney run. Marquette will do themselves a lot of good with this solid road victory.
Louisville @ Connecticut - You hate to say elimination game here but it may just be. L'Ville needs a solid road win and UConn just can't afford more losses.
Clemson @ Florida State - Both teams are safe for now but the loser of this game may have to start worrying a bit.

Yeah, a lot of great games to comes this weekend. Hope you find time to watch them all, even with the Olympics going on.

I will not be posting over the weekend. I'll come back with a new post and new bracket on Monday after all these great games. Don't forget though, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page. I'll be tweeting about the great games and more all weekend for sure.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - February 25, 2010

If you're a fan of college basketball, then you had to be a fan of yesterday's action. Teams that had a chance to make a huge splash came close but yet, so far. Others made a splash but will it be big enough in the long run? Others were just hoping to tread water and not hurt their standings. And then there was others who were simply trying to avoid the upset but failed in doing so.

Thanks to yesterday's action, there has been some shake-ups in my field of 65. Teams are in and teams are out. But maybe more importantly, some teams did themselves a huge favor by improving their position on the bubble.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65

LOCKS: Teams like Maryland and Missouri are getting close to locking up their spot. Wins yesterday keep both teams on a roll. If they can avoid the big upset, you'll see both in this group soon. But for now, no changes.

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.


AUTOS: No change here from yesterday.

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Campbell, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: Yesterday's action really shook this group up. That's because many of these teams played and with mixed results. The big winner in the group is UTEP who I think with 11 wins in a row has done enough to warrant a spot in this group. The big loser is no doubt William & Mary, who with their loss to Towson now find themselves 5th in the Colonial conference. Sorry, that's not gonna cut it. They're back on the bubble, where they will probably stay. Also not in as good of shape anymore is Virginia Tech, who lost to BC in a game the Hokies needed to win. They now find themselves on the edge of the AT-LARGE cliff.

AT-LARGE (18): Richmond, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Florida, Marquette, UConn, Rhode Island, Illinois, UTEP, Washington, St. Mary's, and Virginia Tech

BUBBLE WATCH

Thanks to last night's games, the BUBBLEs group is one smaller as Saint Louis has had their bubble burst. With a win over Xavier, the Billikens had a chance to make a big jump. But now, their chances are slim to none and until they get another marquee victory, they're toast. Meanwhile, Notre dame has vaulted up in the ranks with a huge win over Pitt. It's not enough quite yet but they're on the right track. The news is not good for South Florida though who continue to fall, after losing to Villanova last night.

BUBBLE (39): Richmond, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, UNLV, Florida, Marquette, UConn, Rhode Island, Illinois, UTEP, Washington, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, California, Utah State, Dayton, Siena, San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, UAB, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Mississippi State, Arizona State, South Florida, Northeastern, Wichita State, and Cornell.

That's the field as of now. We'll see what happens next.

SEEDING

As far as the top four seeds, I'm not willing to change anything quite yet. The loss to Notre Dame was not good for Pitt in their quest for a #2 seed but at the same time, it wasn't that bad of a loss to knock them down to a #4 seed. BYU is getting close to a #4 seed, thanks to a quality win over San Diego State. Also, don't sleep on Temple, who had a quality win over Dayton, and Texas, who beat a good Oklahoma State team. There's still time for both to jump into a top 4 seed.

Tomorrow, I will make my first complete bracket so this section will be interesting tomorrow. Today though, here are my unchanged top 4 seeds:

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
1. Kansas (Oklahoma City) -- TOP OVERALL SEED.
2. West Virginia (New Orleans)
3. Michigan State (Buffalo)
4. New Mexico (San Jose)

EAST REGION - Syracuse
1. Kentucky (New Orleans)
2. Kansas State (Oklahoma City)
3. Georgetown (Jacksonville)
4. Wisconsin (Spokane)

SOUTH REGION - Houston
1. Syracuse* (Buffalo)
2. Duke (Jacksonville)
3. Pittsburgh (Providence)
4. Vanderbilt (San Jose)

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
1. Purdue (Milwaukee)
2. Villanova (Providence)
3. Ohio State (Milwaukee)
4. Gonzaga (Spokane)

*NOTE: Syracuse is ineligible to play in the East Region because their home court is being used as the region site.

THURSDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

South Carolina @ Kentucky - UK has one loss this season. It came to USC. A win by UK just moves them closer to locking up a #1 seed.
Wisconsin @ Indiana - This shouldn't be a problem for the Badgers, but if they lose, they probably lose the #4 seed I have them projected to be.
Georgia @ Vanderbilt - Vandy is in good shape right now but they better bring their "A" game against UGA, who has been playing well as of late, especially against good teams.
Arizona @ California - Simply said, Cal needs to win every game if they want to feel safe.
Arizona State @ Stanford - It wouldn't be a quality win for the Sun Devils but a road win nonetheless.

Check back tomorrow as I will have my first bracket right here. Should be fun. After I post the first one, it will be updated every day.

Don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page. I'd love to hear what you think. See ya tomorrow.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - February 24, 2010

It's starting to get tough for yours truly. Putting together my top 65 was mainly a gut decision for me yesterday. But putting the teams in order really forced me to compare records, resumes, RPI rankings and still, my gut. It wasn't an easy task by any means but I did it. Of course, much will be changed by time I come out with my final bracket in about 2 weeks. But for now, enjoy the structured randomness that is today's bracketology.

As I mentioned, what's new is that I put in order the AT-LARGE teams and the BUBBLE teams to give you a better idea of where they stand. While some teams may seem high or low right now, that is strictly because I feel they have some more to prove. Some of them have crucial games coming up that if they win will vault up the list. Others though who may win but play scrubs will find themselves either treading water or sinking slowly.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65

LOCKS: I was all set to add Northern Iowa to this list on Tuesday but I told myself that they needed to avoid the big upset on the road to Evansville, who at the time had just 7 wins. Well guess what, UNI lost. Therefore, they remain an AUTO and not a LOCK. While they are still in great shape, the loss keeps them from LOCK status for another day or two. Other than that, no changes.

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.


AUTOS: No change here from yesterday.

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Campbell, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: As I stated up top, these names are now in order from most secure to least secure. That should give you an idea of who I think is also getting close to LOCK status. Teams near the beginning of this list are probably just a big win away from being a LOCK.

There is a change though in who is in this list and who is out. Illinois jumps into my field with a solid road victory over Michigan. Out of the group is Dayton for now.

AT-LARGE (18): Richmond, Missouri, Clemson, Maryland, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, UNLV, Florida, Virginia Tech, William & Mary, Marquette, UConn, Rhode Island, Illinois, Washington and St. Mary's

BUBBLE WATCH

Of course, there is still a BUBBLE category. You will see repeat names in the category because though a team may be an AT-LARGE, they are still always on the BUBBLE until they become a LOCK. No changes to this group but they are now in order from best chance to worst chance.

BUBBLE (39): Richmond, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Clemson, Maryland, Louisville, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Old Dominion, UNLV, Florida, Virginia Tech, William & Mary, Marquette, UConn, Rhode Island, Illinois, Washington, St. Mary's, Dayton, California, San Diego State, Utah State, Siena, Seton Hall, Charlotte, Cincinnati, UTEP, UAB, Ole Miss, South Florida, Saint Louis, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Northeastern, Wichita State, and Cornell

Hopefully, that clears things up a bit. Again, I reserve the right to make drastic changes to this field of 65 as I continue to compare each team's bodies of work. The more time I look the numbers, the more I change my mind so changes will come.

SEEDING

For the second night in a row, no changes. Georgetown's win over Louisville was huge, keeping them as a solid #3 seed. Same can be said for Syracuse's road win. A loss there may have opened the door slightly for a team like Kansas State (who also won on the road) to creep closer to a #1 seed. New Mexico avoided upset and stays where they are. Meanwhile Tennessee, who had a chance to make a move toward a top 4 seed suffered a loss to Florida, keeping a team like Vanderbilt breathing easy for now.

The goal was to have a bracket up by tomorrow but instead, it will be Friday. With all the big games tomorrow, that will allow me to first make changes to the teams in the actual field and then, give me time on Thursday to place them into my first bracket.

For now though, here are my projected top 4 seeds:

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
1. Kansas (Oklahoma City) -- TOP OVERALL SEED.
2. West Virginia (New Orleans)
3. Michigan State (Buffalo)
4. New Mexico (San Jose)

EAST REGION - Syracuse
1. Kentucky (New Orleans)
2. Kansas State (Oklahoma City)
3. Georgetown (Jacksonville)
4. Wisconsin (Spokane)

SOUTH REGION - Houston
1. Syracuse* (Buffalo)
2. Duke (Jacksonville)
3. Pittsburgh (Providence)
4. Vanderbilt (San Jose)

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
1. Purdue (Milwaukee)
2. Villanova (Providence)
3. Ohio State (Milwaukee)
4. Gonzaga (Spokane)

*NOTE: Syracuse is ineligible to play in the East Region because their home court is being used as the region site.

WEDNESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Purdue @ Minnesota - For Purdue, staying as a #1 seed is on the line. For Minnesota, a chance to get back in the bubble talk.
South Florida @ Villanova - USF needs a win like this badly to boost their resume. Villanova just better not be looking ahead to their showdown at Syracuse on Saturday
San Diego State @ BYU - The Aztecs could really help their cause with a win on the road. BYU won the first meeting at SDSU by just 2 points. Cougars also right on cusp of grabbing a top 4 seed.
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame - A must-win for Notre Dame if they want to stay a bubble team. For Pitt, a must-win if they want to even be considered for anything higher than a 3 seed.
Dayton @ Temple - Temple is safely in the tournament and now, fighting for a high seed. Dayton could help themselves immensely with a road victory in Philly.
Oklahoma State @ Texas - I think it's safe to say a win in Austin would move the Cowboys from at-large to lock status. The Longhorns have been struggling as of late but are safely in the dance.
UTEP @ Southern Miss - The Miners have won 10 in a row and are quickly rising up my rankings. Gotta get past their road test though against USM, who nearly beat UAB last week.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - This is a game the Hokies are supposed to win. If they lose, they may lose their spot among the at-large crowd too.
Florida State @ North Carolina - UNC's chances are on life support. They need to win out and then some. FSU needs to avoid this loss and win a couple more to feel safe about their standing.
Xavier @ Saint Louis - The Billikens are a desperate team in need of a marquee win so Xavier better be ready. A loss by Saint Louis probably bursts their bubble, despite their great play as of late.
Clemson @ Maryland - With a loss, neither team will lose their spot in the field. But with a win, they can really shore up their spot in the at-large pool.

There you have it. Should be a great day of basketball as there's a lot at stake for many teams. Bubbles could be burst tomorrow but at the same time, we could see more teams added to the discussion. I'll be watching closely as I try to figure out who is worthy of a spot in my field of 65.

Ddon't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page. I'd love to hear what you think. See ya tomorrow.

MB