Barnes Bracketology - February 23, 2010

What a difference a year makes when it comes to bracketology. This time last year, teams like North Carolina, UConn, Louisville, and Memphis were fighting for top seeds. This year, all are fighting to just make the field of 65. Last year, teams like Kentucky, Kansas State, and Vanderbilt didn't even make the tournament. This year, they're fighting for a top 4 seed. Crazy huh?

But that's just another example of why I love doing this bracketology series. It's so unpredictable but yet, my job is to predict. So far, I have predicted the top 4 seeds by region and included my LOCKS, AUTOS, and BUBBLE teams. Today, I am going to complete the field of 65 by adding my AT-LARGE teams. Of all the groups, the AT-LARGE group is the one that will see the most movement. With each day of games, I will shift teams in and out, making for fun times once I actually fill out an entire bracket.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 65

LOCKS: With only two really big games playing yesterday, there were no changes to my LOCKS group. So I'm sticking with the 25 I have, though I am very close to adding 2-3 more. I just think they need one more good win or just simply avoid an upset on the road this coming week.

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.


AUTOS: Nothing new to report. This section will pretty stay unchanged until conference tournament week, though you may some shifting these next 2 weeks as some conferences have matchups between the top two teams ahead.

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Campbell, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

AT-LARGE: This is where it gets fun. After comparing regular season resumes, RPI rankings and at times, just going with my gut, here are the 18 AT-LARGE teams as of now. I will say thanks to UConn's win over West Virginia yesterday, they moved from BUBBLE to AT-LARGE. It was their third straight win, with two of them against top-tier teams (WVU and Villanova).

This time, the AT-LARGE teams are in no particular order at all but as time goes on, they will be in order from most secure to least secure.

AT-LARGE (18): Georgia Tech, Clemson, Richmond, Missouri, Florida State, Florida, Maryland, UConn, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Virginia Tech, UNLV, Marquette, Rhode Island, William & Mary, Dayton, St. Mary's and Washington

BUBBLE WATCH

Of course, there is still a BUBBLE category. You will see repeat names in the category because though a team may be an AT-LARGE, they are still always on the BUBBLE until they become a LOCK. No changes to this group so again, the BUBBLE teams are listed here in no particular order at all. Again, with time, this group will be in order from best chances to worst chances.

BUBBLE (39): Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma State, California, Washington, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State, San Diego State, UNLV, Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte, Saint Louis, Northern Iowa, UAB, Siena, Utah State, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, William and Mary, Wichita State, Cornell, UTEP, and Northeastern.

So there you have it. My current field of 65 and the teams that are close to crashing the Big Dance. With some big games today, expect some teams to jump in and fall out in tomorrow's post.

SEEDING

No changes here. Kansas' win over Oklahoma just further strengthened their stranglehold on a #1 seed AND the top overall seed. Meanwhile, WVU's loss to UConn did not cause them to fall from a #2 seed just yet. But there are some very good teams that are right on their heels, such as Pittsburgh and Ohio State.

In case you missed yesterday's post, this year, the 8 first and second round sites are New Orleans, LA, Providence, RI, San Jose, CA Oklahoma City, OK Buffalo, NY, Jacksonville, FL, Milwaukee, WI and Spokane, WA.

The regional sites are Syracuse, NY (EAST), St. Louis, MO (MIDWEST), Salt Lake City, UT (WEST) and Houston, TX (SOUTH).

After today, I will no longer explain why there are cities next to the names of the universities and regions in the interest of space.

Here are my projected top 4 seeds:

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
1. Kansas (Oklahoma City) -- TOP OVERALL SEED.
2. West Virginia (New Orleans)
3. Michigan State (Buffalo)
4. New Mexico (San Jose)

EAST REGION - Syracuse
1. Kentucky (New Orleans)
2. Kansas State (Oklahoma City)
3. Georgetown (Jacksonville)
4. Wisconsin (Spokane)

SOUTH REGION - Houston
1. Syracuse* (Buffalo)
2. Duke (Jacksonville)
3. Pittsburgh (Providence)
4. Vanderbilt (San Jose)

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
1. Purdue (Milwaukee)
2. Villanova (Providence)
3. Ohio State (Milwaukee)
4. Gonzaga (Spokane)

*NOTE: Syracuse is ineligible to play in the East Region because their home court is being used as the region site.

TUESDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH

Syracuse @ Providence - Providence has about zero chance of gaining an at-large big but they've played some good teams tough. The Friars have lost 6 straight though. A win over Syracuse would be great for morale but bad for the 'Cuse, who are hoping to stay a #1 seed.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech - A win by Tech puts them back in the bubble discussion and probably drops K-State from a #2 seed.
Georgetown @ Louisville - Huge game for the Cardinals. A win gives them a second top-15 RPI victory in 4 games, something that will resonate well with the committee this late. As for G'Town, losing this game might not hurt the seeding too much but a third loss in a row may shake the confidence of the team.
Tennessee @ Florida - The Gators need this one badly. With really just one marquee win (vs. Mich. St.), this would add a much-needed feather to their cap.
Illinois @ Michigan - Tough road test for the Illini but one they need to pass if they want to stay in the at-large group. Illinois has lost their last 2 games (vs. OSU, @ Purdue).

That's it for today. Hopefully, the addition of the AT-LARGE group was enough to whet your appetite. Tomorrow, my goal is to order the AT-LARGE and BUBBLE group so you have an idea of who I think is in better shape than others. Then, on Thursday, I hope to reveal my first bracket. Of course, that's all subject to change as Wednesday is a very active basketball night with a lot of meaningful games taking place.

Either way, I hope you'll return. And don't forget, you can share your opinion in the comments section below, on Twitter @MattBarnesWRDW, or my Facebook page.

MB

Barnes Bracketology - February 22, 2010

It's hard to believe that Selection Sunday is now less than 3 weeks away. Just seemed like yesterday the ACC/Big Ten challenge was beginning. But alas, the tournament is just weeks away and that means, it's time to kick off my bracketology series.

As I stated in my introduction post, this is a gradual process. I will reveal more and more as the days go on. Today, I will be revealing my current top 4 seeds and their regions as well as my locks, autos and my bubble teams. In the coming days, I will reveal complete my field of 65 and add seeding as well.

So here's how it will work. Every post will start with the LOCKS. These are the teams that have done plenty already to assure themselves of a spot in the field of 65. This is clearly the group teams want to be in. They are, in no particular order:

LOCKS (25): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Texas A+M, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, New Mexico, BYU, Temple, Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler.

If you're not a LOCK, then you definitely want be an AUTO. That means being the team to earn the automatic bid from your conference. For all conferences except the Ivy League, this will be earned by winning the conference tournament. So for now, many of these names are just guesses of who will win the conference tournament in a few weeks. You'll also notice not every conference will be listed in this category. That's because if a team is already a LOCK, their name will not appear in the AUTO category too. So the AUTOS are, in alphabetical order by conference:

AUTOS (22): America East - Stony Brook, Atlantic Sun - Campbell, Big Sky - Weber State, Big South - Coastal Carolina, Big West - UC Santa Barbara, Colonial - Old Dominion, Conference USA - UTEP, Ivy - Cornell, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Akron, MEAC - Morgan State, MVC - Northern Iowa, Northeast - Robert Morris, Ohio Valley - Murray State, Pac-10 - California, Patriot - Lehigh, Southern - Wofford, Southland - Sam Houston State, SWAC - Jackson State, Summit - Oakland, Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State, WAC - Utah State

Normally, after the AUTO category, I will have the AT-LARGE category. But I'm not quite ready for that yet. But I will reveal my BUBBLE category. This is the list that is one no one wants to be on. It means come Selection Sunday, the team will be biting their fingernails, waiting until their name is called, if at all.

You will see some teams in the BUBBLE category that are also in the AUTO category. That's because if the team does not end winning their conference tournament, they still have a chance of still reaching the Big Dance as an AT-LARGE. As the days go by, I will put the teams in the BUBBLE category in order so you know how close each team is to cracking my field of 65. But for now, here are the BUBBLE teams in no particular order:

BUBBLE (39): Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma State, California, Washington, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State, San Diego State, UNLV, Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte, Saint Louis, Northern Iowa, UAB, Siena, Utah State, Old Dominion, St. Mary's, William and Mary, Wichita State, Cornell, UTEP, and Northeastern.

So if you do the math, only 18 of the above 39 BUBBLE teams will receive an invite to the tournament. And that number can decrease if there are upsets in conference tournaments that add to the AUTO number. So yeah, it's going to be a fun next 3 weeks.

SEEDING

As far as my top 4 seeds, here's what I have so far. Again, these will shift like the field of 65 projections. I also assigned the teams to regions, keeping in mind the NCAA's goal of placing teams at sites that are closest to their universities.

This year, the 8 first and second round sites are New Orleans, LA, Providence, RI, San Jose, CA Oklahoma City, OK Buffalo, NY, Jacksonville, FL, Milwaukee, WI and Spokane, WA.

The regional sites are Syracuse, NY (EAST), St. Louis, MO (MIDWEST), Salt Lake City, UT (WEST) and Houston, TX (SOUTH).

With that in mind, here are my projected top 4 seeds:

MIDWEST REGION - St. Louis
1. Kansas (Oklahoma City)
2. West Virginia (New Orleans)
3. Michigan State (Buffalo)
4. New Mexico (San Jose)

EAST REGION - Syracuse
1. Kentucky (New Orleans)
2. Kansas State (Oklahoma City)
3. Georgetown (Jacksonville)
4. Wisconsin (Spokane)

SOUTH REGION - Houston
1. Syracuse* (Buffalo)
2. Duke (Jacksonville)
3. Pittsburgh (Providence)
4. Vanderbilt (San Jose)

WEST REGION - Salt Lake City
1. Purdue (Milwaukee)
2. Villanova (Providence)
3. Ohio State (Milwaukee)
4. Gonzaga (Spokane)

*NOTE: Syracuse is ineligible to play in the East Region because their home court is being used as the region site.

MONDAY'S GAMES TO WATCH
Oklahoma @ Kansas - The Jayhawks are firmly a #1 seed right now but could change with a few losses down the stretch. Oklahoma is not even considered a bubble team right now.
West Virginia @ UConn - For WVU, this could mean staying a #2 seed. For UConn, it may be a must-win as they continue to fight for a spot in the field after a rough stretch that saw them lose 8 out of 10 games.

That's it for today. Check back tomorrow for more as I continue to put together this crazy puzzle that is the NCAA Basketball Tournament field of 65.

Barnes Bracketology - Intro

Hello and welcome to Barnes Bracketology, the 2010 edition. After my inaugural run in 2009, I'm excited to give this another shot. Last year was fairly successful in both reader interaction and my picks. I had a somewhat solid following that gave me plenty of opinions, from start to finish. I also did a decent job with the picks, correctly guessing all the top seeds and predicting 64 of the 65 teams in the field (Arizona the lone miss).

But with a new year comes bigger goals. This year, I wanna get them all. Of course, that may not happen, because while I may see something one way, the selection committee may see it another, so in essence, there is no "wrong' answer. But that's not going to stop me from crunching the numbers every night and putting together the massive puzzle that is the field of 65.

While some may think it's easy, trust me, it's not. I figured that out quickly last year. There are tons of components that go into making a bracket. First, picking the 34 at-large teams. Then, seeding all the teams. With the seeding though comes the task of making sure conference foes (really tough, especially with Big East teams) OR teams that met each other in the regular season don't face each other in the first three rounds. Oh, and then don't forget the fact that you have to assign teams to regions. So yeah, it's not easy.

Despite all that, I'm going for it again. And if that means late nights for yours truly, that's quite fine. My plan is to update the blog with projections everyday, except for Saturday. That's because there aren't really any big Friday games, until the conference tournaments begin. Other than that though, expect a new post everyday. I will apologize now though if I miss a day. Things do come up.

With each and every post, I will reveal more and more. I make it a gradual process. I will start with the top 4 seeds. Then, I'll pick my 65 teams. From there, I'll make a full bracket. Each post will also include my locks (teams who've done enough to assure a spot), autos (teams with automatic bids in the tourney for winning conference tourneys), and at-larges (teams that will earn an at-large bid). I will also have a list of bubble teams and I will rank those in order, to let you know who is close and not close to being included in my bracket.

I also want to assure you that during this process, I will not look at any other bracket projections on any other website or publication. I pride myself on coming up with these predictions myself and not simply copy and pasting someone else's thoughts. I accomplished this feat last year successfully and see no reason why I can't do it again.

I think this will be fun, but it is more fun with interaction from you, the readers. I hope you'll check in everyday and let me know what you think. The first post will be up soon. Let the 2010 Barnes Bracketology begin!

2010 PGA Tour Picks Contest - Week 4

Yeah, I forgot to do posts for the past three weeks. My bad. Eh well, moving on.

We are in Week 4 of the PGA Tour picks contest between Luke and I and so far, it's been a fun ride. Thanks to our new rule of picking golfers no more than 5 times, we have had an array of golfers chosen already. Here's a quick recap of the first three weeks.

Week 1: SBS Championship - I took Nick Watney with my first pick. Luke countered with Y.E. Yang and Ryan Moore. For the record, I wanted Moore with my second pick and Luke wanted Watney with his first. Anyways, I used my last pick on Dustin Johnson. In the end, thanks to a great final two rounds by Moore and no cut, Luke won the week with a score of -28 to my -26

Week 2: Sony Open in Hawaii - In the first full field event of the season, Luke had first pick and he went with Rory Sabbatini, who was coming off a great final round at the SBS Championship. I went with defending champion Zach Johnson and David Toms. Luke concluded the week's picks with Kevin Na (yeah, it's gonna be that kind of season). None of our golfers really were ever in contention so this one was all about strokes. When it was over, I won with a score of -11 while Luke carded a -5. I also led the overall standings.

Week 3: Bob Hope Classic - My lead didn't last long. In fact, it all but disappeared. I picked Chad Campbell with my first pick, feeling confident. Luke went with Mike Weir and Tim Clark, solid players who don't hit it long but hit it well. I chose Justin Leonard with my last pick. Well, let's just say after round one, I knew I was not in good shape. While my players were in the bottom 10, Luke's were in the top 25. Thankfully, it was a 5-round event so my golfers salvaged their bad rounds a bit but both missed the cut. With my 5-stroke penalties for both, I finished with a score of +2. Luke on the other hand, nearly earned a victory from Clark, who fell one shot shy. But for the picks contest, it was a resounding win, as he finished -55 for the tourney. Needless to say, he reclaimed the overall lead.

Now you're all caught up. Here are this week's picks:

WEEK 4 - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
Luke (-88): Nick Watney and Lucas Glover
Matt (-35): Ryan Moore and Phil Mickelson

Luke took Nick Watney with his first pick. A solid choice for sure. He played well for me in Week 1 and played well in the West Coast last year. I then went with Ryan Moore, who has 2 top-10s already, expecting him to at least make the cut. I then took Mickelson. There was some trepidation here but you know what, I like Lefty's chances in San Diego. Torrey Pines is a tough course but as a three-time winner of this tourney, I expect him to play well and actually, win. Luke then took Lucas Glover who has a solid all-around game too.

Be sure to check back next week as the PGA Tour season continues!

2010 PGA Tour Picks Contest - Intro

Enough talk about the New Year, NFL playoffs, and Gilbert Arenas. Tomorrow is a great day in the world of sports. No, not because of the BCS championship game, but because it's the start of the PGA Tour season. And while many of you may not get excited about it, you should be, because it's also the start of the PGA Tour golf picks between myself and my good friend Luke Florence.

This picks contest began 3 years ago, just as something fun to do during the school year. The first 2 years were tough as we didn't really keep track that well. Last year, we fell behind at times but thanks to saved text messages, e-mails and memory, we were able to complete last year's contest. No surprise, I won with a better score.

The basic concept is pretty simple. Pick 2 golfers each week, combine their score, keep on adding each week and whoever has the best score at the end of the season wins. There are other rules though and they are as follows:

2010 PGA TOUR PICKS RULES (new rules in italics)
1. The winner of the week gets 1st pick in the next week's tournament. The loser then gets picks #2 and #3, leaving the 4th pick to the winner. In the case of a tie in the week, the previous' week's winner goes first again.

2. In an effort to keep both of us from picking Tiger Woods (the world's #1 and most dominant golfer) every week and adding a little strategy to this contest, both of us are only allowed to pick him 3 times during the entire golf season.

3. In an effort to keep us both from picking the same golfers and adding a little strategy to this contest, both of us are only allowed to pick the same golfer 5 times during the entire golf season.
4. If either Luke or I pick the tournament winner using our 2 picks, we earn another opportunity to pick Tiger Woods in a tournament. This includes if Tiger himself is the winner.

4a. If Tiger Woods does not return from his indefinite leave of absence, picking the tournament winner will earn the opportunity to have a "re-do" pick. A "re-do" entails of being able to change one golfer to any other golfer after the first round.

5. In major tournaments, the WGC events, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the 4 FedEx Cup events, strokes will be doubled. (Ex. -10 = -20, +6 = +12, etc...)

6. In the WGC Match Play Championship, Luke and I will pick it March Madness style, with a correct pick increasing in value as the rounds get further (1-2-3-4-5-6). The person with the most total points at the end earns another opportunity to pick Tiger Woods or a "re-do" in a tournament.

7. If a chosen golfer misses a cut (2nd or 3rd round), the total for that player will have 5 strokes added to their score unless their score is better than the 5th worst score at the end of the tournament. This applies to the majors and FedEx Cup events as well.

8. If a chosen golfer withdraws or is disqualified, the person who chose that player must change their pick to (one of) the playing partner(s) of the golfer once the round is complete. If it is the final round, the playing partner of the chosen golfer automatically becomes the score used.

9. During WGC events and the British Open, the secondary PGA Tour tournaments (ex. Reno-Tahoe Open) will also be chosen. However, Luke and I will only choose one golfer and it will NOT be worth double strokes.

10. The challenge begins with the SBS Championship on January 7th and ends with the final FedEx Cup event, THE TOUR Championship on September 26th.

11. The winner of the challenge wins pride. Well, that and first pick for the next season and two extra Tiger picks.

Got it? I hope so cause I don't want to explain it again. Unlike last year when I tried to keep track of the scores in a box in the corner, I plan on doing a post every Wednesday/Thursday. In that post, I will update last week's score and have our picks for the next tournament.

WEEK 1: SBS CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Matt - Nick Watney
2. Luke - Y.E. Yang
3. Luke - Ryan Moore
4. Matt - Dustin Johnson

I hope you follow along and even make up a contest of your own with a friend. Enjoy the season everyone!