
So the Big Ten is thinking about expanding to 12 teams. Hmm, seems like I've heard this before. Remember back in 1999 when they went after Notre Dame only to be shunned by the selfish Irish? Yeah, they were the perfect fit but instead of being part of a group, the Irish decided to stay independent and keep all their money to themselves. Typical Catholics huh? (Just kidding, I promise).
So today came the news from the Big Ten itself that they want to expand. Within the next 12-18 months, the conference will be looking for universities that fit into the Big Ten profile. This is great news because adding a 12th team will allow the Big Ten to create two divisions in football and hold a Big Ten championship game. That then would keep football in the national spotlight like the other conferences who play into the month of December. As far as basketball, it would knock down the amount of conference games from 18 to 16, allowing for 2 more non-conference matchups. And that doesn't matter whether they break into divisions like the SEC or not like the Big 12 and ACC.
Of course, along with the athletic benefits, the Big Ten is looking at the academic benefits. The conference wants to add an institution that excels in academia. In fact, the Big Ten is the only conference in which every member is also a member of the Association of American Universities (AAU), which is an association of the 62 leading research universities in the U.S. and Canada. So if the Big Ten is going to add a 12th member, you can bet they want to add an institution that is not only going to be competitive in the athletic spectrum, but also part of the AAU.
While I applaud their decision to consider adding a 12th member, I don't feel like waiting 12-18 months for the conference to make recommendations. So in order to hopefully speed up the process, I've made a list of 12 schools that I think could be the 12th member. Hopefully, the Big Ten will see my list and get right to work to convincing one of them to become a member of the best conference in America.
IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER (because if the Big Ten actually sees this, I wanna be "unbiased")
Cincinnati - Regionally, adding Cincy would make sense. In the major sports such as football and basketball, they have been competitive as of late and would be welcome additions. They only offer 18 sports, which is less than any other Big Ten school. The area where they really don't stack up would be academically. Getting them to leave the Big East would be tough considering they have a 1 in 8 chance of making a BCS bowl in football and in basketball, they play in what is turning into the best conference in the sport. They don't have a real rival right now playing in the Big East so starting a OSU/Cincy regional rivalry could be good for both schools and ultimately, the Big Ten.
Kentucky - Adding UK would give the Big Ten their first team in the state of Kentucky but at the same time, it makes sense regionally as well. The Wildcats are making strides with their football program while their basketball program is one of the most prestigious in the nation. The Wildcats don't have any real rivals in either major sport so leaving the SEC wouldn't mean the loss of a rival. It would mean leaving the country's most revered football conference though and a basketball conference they're used to dominating. Academically, the school doesn't quite match up but is close enough to not cause an uproar among the conference elite.
Louisville - Regionally, the Cardinals make sense even though it would be adding a new state. When it comes to football, the school would have to make some headway under new head coach Charlie Strong to compete in the Big Ten. But in all honestly, having a young, black football coach in the Big Ten could be a good draw for the conference. Then, add Rick Pitino and the Louisville basketball program and the school really makes the Big Ten better in basketball. They do only have 18 athletic programs but since the year 2001, their merchandise has tripled, putting them 32nd in the nation, so the potential is there. Academically, it doesn't stack up exactly but the pros in the athletics may outweigh the cons of the academics.
Missouri - Not only would Missouri mean a new state, but the school is bit further than maybe the Big Ten wants to expand. But if they do bring the Tigers in, they'd bring with them a rivalry already with Illinois. Mizzou would bring 20 sports, which is more than Northwestern. They also have been competitive in both football and basketball in recent years. Leaving the Big 12 means losing a rivalry with Kansas (border war) but again, they have a long-standing one with Illinois. Having just 2 national titles overall though is unimpressive. Academically, the school fits the Big Ten profile. They are a part of the AAU and also known as one of the best schools in various programs, such as journalism.
Nebraska - You might be surprised to see the Huskers on this list. They have such a long tradition in the Big 12 but it's just as long as Missouri. The Huskers clearly have a football program that would bring more credibility to the Big Ten. Their basketball program though really wouldn't add much. Plus, regionally, the school doesn't fit much, especially since they don't even border any states that currently house a Big Ten team. But having a football program with the prestige of Nebraska is enough to make the Big Ten elite salivate. They have 21 sports, which works out great just like their 23 national championships. Plus, they would compete in sports like wrestling and volleyball that are sports the Big Ten excels in currently. Academically, they are also part of the AAU so the Big Ten has to smile about that.
Notre Dame - Yes, the Irish are on this list. It's a longshot but again, they are a great fit. Regionally, they make sense. In football, they don't have to leave a conference. They just join one. Not only that, but they already play 3 Big Ten teams already so they can keep those games on the schedule. The basketball team has been competitive and would fit fine into the Big Ten landscape. With 23 sports and 14 national championships, the Irish easily fit the Big Ten athletic profile. Academically, the standards at Notre Dame may be the most selective of any Big Ten institution. Surprisingly, they are not a part of the AAU but I don't think the Big Ten would balk at ND because of that. It'll be hard to convince the school to leave its fat TV contracts and Big East affiliation in other sports but if the Big Ten can get Regis Philbin on its side, they may have a chance of getting them to come to the dark side.
Ohio - This is a longshot among the group of 12. OU makes sense regionally, seeing that it is just 90 minutes from Ohio State. It also boasts an enrollment of around 20,000, which is double the size of Northwestern. Its football program has made strides under Frank Solich and competed well against Big Ten teams in the past 4 years (OSU, NW). The basketball program looked to be on the upswing with John Groce as head coach too. The volleyball program also would be able to compete in the Big Ten. OU does only have 16 sports though and no national titles to its credit. Academically, it doesn't exactly fit the profile of most other Big Ten institutions. It is not an AAU school and is known more for its "play" than its "work". An offer to go to the Big Ten would be great for the school, even if that meant taking lumps for 5-10 years. Plus, with 13 members in the MAC in football, the MAC can afford to lose one.
Pittsburgh - Clearly, Pitt makes sense when you think regionally. It's right on I-70 and would be easy travel for everyone. Also, expanding to a large market would be a positive for the Big Ten. The Panthers would be great for both football and basketball, especially with their play as of late. Beyond those two sports though, the wrestling and track and field teams would also make immediate impacts. They do only have 17 varsity teams but the 11 national championships are noteworthy. Academically, they fit right in as an AAU school and an enrollment that compares favorably to other Big Ten schools. Having Pitt leave for the Big Ten would mean the loss of rivalries to West Virginia and Cincinnati but it would renew a football rivalry with Penn State that spanned from 1905 to 2000.
Rutgers - This one might also surprise people but it does make sense. Rutgers has done a lot lately to upgrade its athletic programs and are seeing that benefit on the playing field. The school has 27 athletic programs, which would put it near the top of the Big Ten. It also isn't too far from Penn State, which means its not too far regionally. The football team has improved greatly under Greg Schiano. The men's basketball team is struggling but the women's basketball team is one of the best in the nation. Academically, Rutgers is the state university of New Jersey and known for many of its programs. It also is an AAU member and its enrollment is around the median of the Big Ten schools. The school doesn't have a real rival, especially since they are still fairly new to Division I so leaving the Big East wouldn't hurt them in any way.
Syracuse - Of the 12 schools listed, this would be the furthest away regionally. The 'Cuse is currently in the Big East but probably wouldn't have a problem moving to the Big Ten. The school has 25 national championships, with 10 of the last 11 all coming in lacrosse. The school has 20 varsity sports, which works great for the conference. The football team hasn't been good in years but the basketball team would come in immediately and be a force. Academically, SU is right up there with the rest of the Big Ten as an AAU member and as far as enrollment numbers. Despite their long history, the Orange don't really have a rival so leaving for the Big Ten wouldn't ruin anything really.
Temple - It's the second MAC school on the list and just like Ohio, leaving the 13-team MAC in football would be no big deal. As for basketball, leaving the A-10 will leave them with A-9 but I doubt Temple would balk at the idea of moving into a bigger and more recognized conference. The football team improved this past season under Al Golden but how long that success stays is unknown. The basketball team has always been competitive and could see some success in the Big Ten. They have 21 varsity sports so they'd contribute to the Big Ten in more than those sports. The team has basketball rivals all in the city of Philadelphia that can stay even with a conference move so that's not a problem. Academically, Temple doesn't exactly match up with the rest. They are not an AAU school and aren't known for many programs. But being able to branch out to a city like Philadelphia would be great for the Big Ten.
West Virginia - If the Big Ten were looking to expand into a new state, West Virginia would have to be one of them. As the state university, it resembles many of the current Big Ten schools. In terms of football and basketball, both sports would come in and compete immediately. Plus, having a coach like Bob Huggins join the big name basketball coaches in the conference already would be a plus. They have just 17 varsity sports but being able to be a player in the two major sports and women's basketball too may be too much to pass up. Academically, the school isn't in the AAU and doesn't compare well with other Big Ten schools. If the Big Ten decided to ask WV to join, the school would have a tough choice deciding whether to stay in the Big East or not.Besides the 12 I listed, the 4 that missed the cut on my list included Iowa State, Virginia and Vanderbilt, which are all AAU schools but just didn't fit the regional or athletic profile. The other school was Marshall which fit the regional profile but really nothing else. So who will the Big Ten recommend as their 12th member? Guess we'll find out in 12-18 months.
Great post, Matt. I'm looking forward to seeing who the 12th school will be. My immediate thought was Pitt, but you brought up some great points on schools that I didn't even consider "o the radar."
ReplyDeleteNo way Notre Dame enters a conference. They have a BCS tie-in and contracts with numerous bowls. So if/when they make a "money" bowl, they get to keep all of that money for themselves. Joining a conference would mean they'd have to share that money. Doesn't make sense financially for them. Also, the Irish are flourishing in other sports in the Big East currently.
ReplyDeletePitt seems like the very logical choice.
Well done Barnes, although I think the list the Big 10 will consider will be much smaller than this.
ReplyDeleteCincy- OSU would never allow it
UK- Academically not a fit
Louisville- See UK
Missouri- A real possibility, but travel concerns will I'm sure be discussed.
Nebraska- Not sure why they'd want to leave Big 12 with lots of rivalries there with KU, KSU, Oklahoma, Colorado..
ND- See what Todd said
Ohio- I like the Bobkitties as well, but seriously?
Pitt- I think the best fit, academically as well as location.
Rutgers- Good fit academically, but do they have any other sports than football and women's basketball?
Syracuse- 5-10 years ago they were good at some sports, not anymore
Temple- See UK
WVU- Good fit location wise- but not academically.
I see this coming down to Missouri and Pitt- with an outside shot at WVU.
I've personally talked to a friend of mine who knows the AD from Mizzou, and he said that in their conversation about the movement of a 12th team in the B10 it comes down to one thing: money.
ReplyDeleteIt's all about TV contracts. The Big Ten Network is a beast, and that's what going to get this deal done. Athletics have NOTHING to do with the addition of a 12th team, surprisingly. Illinois gets about 20 million/year from the Big Ten while Mizzou only gets about 8 million/year from the Big 12. Obviously, academics are going to play a role in this decision as you said. With all of the B10 schools in the top 75 in the country, there is going to be some talk about a school that can come in and be just as good academically as the rest of the conference.
Mizzou is a great fit, but they don't give the sexy appearance as 'Cuse or Rutgers do. If the Big Ten Network can get its exposure out to the NY/NJ area, that means more money for them. Missouri wouldn't pull as many subscribers to the Network, and therefore it wouldn't be as attractive to the B10. However, you always have to consider academics in this.
That's what makes this a tough decision... one that you cannot figure out by purely looking at the athletic programs any one school would have to offer the B10. Bottom line, this is going to be a political move, and the athletics are just going to come along for the ride. Of course, everyone is going to look at the athletics, and ignore the real reason as to why any certain school (if any at all) gets invited to the Big Ten: money!