It's Championship Week in college football and for the second time in 4 years, I have a team involved. Since that can never be the Ohio State Buckeyes, I'm clearly talking about my Ohio Bobcats, who are a win away from something no one saw coming. But I'll get to that game last. This week is full of great games, including de facto championship games, just thanks to the way things worked out. And with BCS and National Championship berths on the line, this has probably been a nervous week for a lot of players, coaches and fans (including myself).
As far as my record for picking games, it has moved to 128-67. That is thanks to a 12-3 record in Week 12 and then a 10-5 record in Week 13 (too many upsets). Quick note: because there are only 17 games on the schedule, I'm going to with the best 10 games instead of 15 so I'm not picking games that I don't care about such as Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International.
TOP 10 GAMES
GAME OF THE WEEK
1. #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama (SEC Championship in Atlanta, GA) - Until we get a playoff system in college football, having a "national semifinal" like this is the next best thing. Last year, it was the same thing and it was Florida who came out on top. But these are two different teams this year. The Gators still have Tim Tebow though, who despite a concussion, hasn't skipped a beat and finds himself in Heisman contention once again. The Gator defense is top ranked as well, making good offenses look silly many times. Meanwhile, the Bama defense is nothing to laugh at. Nick Saban's defense is also in the top 10 and knows when to buckle down. The offense though is weak. Mark Ingram is a great back but as he goes, so goes that offense many times. These teams are so evenly matched in so many ways, except at QB. And as much as the media gushes over Tebow, you can't help but think he'll be the difference maker in this game. I'm expecting a close game but in the end, I'm going with FLORIDA.
BEST OF THE REST
2. #3 Texas vs. #22 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship in Arlington, TX) - Seems fitting that maybe the biggest game is played in the biggest stadium. What makes this game huge is that if Texas loses, it opens the door to mayhem. Teams like TCU, Cincy and the SEC title game loser all the sudden could sneak into the title game. But again, that's IF the Longhorns lose. Lately, the team has been amazing, especially on offense. After scoring just 16 pts against Oklahoma, the team has scored 35 or more points in its last 6 games. Much of that thanks to Colt McCoy, who may just be one good game away from winning the Heisman Trophy. Meanwhile, Nebraska has been up and down all season, as seen by the way they had to scratch and claw their way to the Big 12 North title. The Huskers have won their last 5 in a row though and own one of the better defenses in the land. But it's their offense that will need to step it up because odds are, their average of 25.6 pts per game won't be enough. It's practically a home game for the 'Horns so expect the place to be rocking from the kickoff to the final horn. TEXAS wins and punches their ticket to Pasadena for the title game.
3. #5 Cincinnati @ #15 Pittsburgh ("Big East Championship Game") - The Bearcats haven't gotten any respect this season, despite doing nothing wrong. They beat Oregon State in Corvallis. They lost their starting quarterback to injury for 4 games but didn't skip a beat with their backup. They've had to endure rumors about their head coach leaving for Notre Dame. Oh, and they still play second fiddle to another school in their state. But Cincy could change all that with a win this weekend. A win at Pitt not only gives them the Big East championship and a BCS berth, but a chance to go undefeated with a win in the bowl game. And until we get a playoff system, going undefeated is all a team can do. As for Pitt, it's about playing spoiler. West Virginia knocked out some of the luster from this game when they beat the Panthers but Pitt can still reach ten wins and a BCS game with a win. Should be a fun game to watch with the likes of Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard for Cincy and Bil Stull and Dion Lewis for Pitt. Cincy has overcome every obstacle so far but this is their biggest yet. So in my APPY of the week, I'll take PITTSBURGH. But let it be known, I'm rooting for Cincy.
4. #16 Oregon State @ #7 Oregon ("Pac-10 Championship Game") - There's a long history in this rivalry, better known as the "Civil War". But instead of going into all of that, let's just look at the past two years. In 2007, it was Oregon State who upset the Ducks in Eugene 38-31 in double OT. But then last year with the Rose Bowl on the line for the Beavers, Oregon went into Corvallis and thumped the home team 65-38. So needless to say, this game is not predictable, like any good rivalry. ORST has plenty of weapons but none better than RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who missed last year's battle due to injury. Meanwhile, Oregon is led by QB Jeremiah Masoli who has recovered from an injury of his own from earlier in the season. If he can replicate his stats from last year (274 pass yds, 3 TD), the Ducks will be just fine. Oregon hasn't been to Pasadena since 1994. Oregon State's waited even longer, since 1964. With such an awful Thursday night NFL matchup, can't ask for a better matchup in the college ranks. It's a toss-up for me. I'm picking OREGON to win and take on Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
5. #10 Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ACC Championship in Tampa, FL) - Thanks to both team's losses last week to their in-state rivals, this game isn't as big as it would;ve been. But with a BCS berth on the line, it's big enough for these teams. It's a rematch of a great Thursday night game back in September. In that game, GT led 24-0 just 20 minutes into the game. But the Tigers came clawing back, scoring 27 unanswered before Tech scored the last 6 pts to win 30-27. Since that game was so early in the season, it's hard to know how much stock to put into that game. Both teams have improved considerably since then. Tech's offense is strong as ever and even feature a decent pass attack, prone to big plays. Their defense, especially in the second half, has been stout too. As for Clemson, CJ Spiller has been wreaking havocs on defenses and special teams units. Plus, Kyle Parker has really found a go-to receiver in Jacoby Ford. Their defense showed some holes last week but expect them to shore them up. While I feel Clemson has the talent to win this game, Tech's attack is bound to give them fits and if Tech's defense bends and doesn't break, GEORGIA TECH will come away as ACC Champs.
6. Arizona @ #18 USC - No championship at stake here as both teams had blown their chances weeks before this matchup. Despite that though, this is a big game for the Wildcats, who would love to hand another loss to the Trojans and gain some confidence for 2010. With a win, Arizona would finish in a tie for second in the conference and snap a 7-game losing streak to USC. Meanwhile, the Trojans have already guaranteed themselves their lowest win total since a 6-6 season in 2001, which was also the last year they didn't win the conference title or make a BCS bowl. If the Trojans lose, they'll finish in 6th place in the Pac-10, which would've sounded crazy at the beginning of the year. But a USC win ties them for 2nd place, which is respectable. Arizona is a fiesty team and will no doubt give USC all it can handle. But I don't see the Trojans losing on senior day in the Coliseum. USC wins by double digits.
7. #21 Houston @ East Carolina (C-USA Championship Game in Greenville, NC) - The Cougars have had quite the season, much of thanks to darkhorse Heisman contender QB Case Keenum. His numbers are mind-boggling, throwing for 38 TD and 4,922 yards. He helped lead the team to wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and a 73-14 rout of Rice last week. Earlier in the year, they were talked about as BCS Busters but two losses to inferior conference teams ended that talk. But a win over ECU would at least give them 11 wins and a chance to finish in the top 15 with a bowl victory. The Cougars have to face the Pirates on their turf though, which won't be easy. While Houston ranks first in just about every offensive category (except rushing), they're right near the bottom on defense. That leaves the door open for the Pirates, who don't light up the scoreboard but if they can keep the Cougars around 35 pts, they have a fighting chance. HOUSTON is my choice to win though.
8. New Mexico State @ #6 Boise State - At 3-9, New Mexico State should not even bother showing up to this game. It's on the blue turf too. Yikes. In case you were wondering, the spread for this game is 48. So why is this game in the Top 10? Simply because Boise is undefeated and upset do happen and this is the final chance Boise QB Kellen Moore has to impress Heisman voters. The sophomore QB has thrown for more than 3,000 yards, 38 TD and just 3 INT. Now, he has zero chance of winning but he does have a chance to get invited to New York. And with him being just a sophomore, being invited could go a long way to his chances of winning in 2010. Of course, a good BCS bowl game performance would help too. As far as this game, BOISE STATE clearly wins and I'll say by 55 points.
9. Wisconsin @ Hawaii - It's a good time to be a Wisconsin Badger. They pretty much get two bowl games with this regular season trip to Hawaii. At 8-3, the Badgers are probably heading to Florida in a few weeks and with it being December, it's probably a good time to be out of Madison. This game is big though for a few reasons. Wisconsin needs this win and a bowl game win to reach 10 wins, the mark of a great season, no matter the schedule. For Hawaii though, a win means a bowl game, probably in Hawaii. The Warriors are 6-6, so they must win. If they lose, it opens the door for teams like Idaho, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green who would fill the open slots. With so much at stake for the Warriors, expect quite the fight but WISCONSIN won't lose this game, I hope.
10. Ohio @ Central Michigan (MAC Championship in Detroit, MI) - In my mind, this is the game of the week but I'm biased. Three years ago when OU made this game, it was a shock. It was done by an overachieving team that somehow scrapped their way to a title game in what was a weak MAC East. But this year is different. While this team was predicted to be much worse, the silenced many doubters in the first 4 games, playing tough against UConn and Tennessee. Granted the OT win over North Texas wasn't stellar but it proved this team wouldn't quit, a trait they've shown all season. Now at 9-3, this team is full of confidence and are coming off the best game I've seen OU play in the 6 years I've been a fan. The health of QB Theo Scott and WR Lavon Brazill is crucial for the Bobcats chances. Scott is probably gonna go but Brazill is a longshot, which really hurts (49 rec, 670 yds, 6 TD this season). As for Central Michigan, what's to say but they just continue to play well. QB Dan LeFevour has put together a fine senior season, passing for 2,788 yards and 25 TD while also leading the team in rushing with 650 yds and 14 TD. Clearly, he's the man to stop or at least slow down. The Chippewas aren't bad defensively either, though they are coming off a game in which they gave up 31 points to NIU. Like OU, CMU has two quality losses in Arizona and BC but unlike OU, they went perfect in conference play and were never really tested by any conference opponent. The game is in Detroit so expect more CMU fans than OU but in a place as huge as Ford Field, I doubt that will matter. Back in 2006 when these same two teams player for the title, CMU won 31-10 in a game that saw OU play 3 QBs because of injuries. Hopefully, we only play one this time around. I honestly thought Temple would beat us last week and OU proved me wrong. Call me crazy but on the heels of that game in Athens, I'm going with OHIO to pull off the upset in the Motor City. Ohio 34, Central Michigan 31
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