2009 College Football - Week 12

When you look at this week, it looks like an awful slate of games. Only one matchup of ranked teams and most other games look like they're gonna be lopsided. But the great thing about games this late in that no matter the rankings, they are big when it comes to conference races and bowl game positioning. Oh, and there's of course always the chance of that upset that sends shock waves through the college football world.

I had a very good week of picking games last week, going 12-3. That moves the season record to 106-59. If there were a time to go 15-0, this would be the week, seeing that many of these games look lopsided and as long as the upset doesn't happen (except in the APPY of course), then I'll be just fine.

GAME OF THE WEEK
1. #11 Oregon @ Arizona - Both teams control their respective destinies in getting to the Rose Bowl, but they'll have to get past each other to reach Pasadena. Oregon comes in with one of the better offenses in the nation, including the 6th best rush offense. They'll put that offense up against the Arizona defense, which is stout against the run. The Wildcats are perfect in Tucson and are more than capable of scoring with the Ducks. If Oregon loses, it will really jumble the Pac-10 race. But if they win, it makes it much easier. I'm torn on who to choose but I'm going with ARIZONA in my APPY of the week.

BEST OF THE REST
2. Kansas @ #3 Texas - Before the year began, this was a game to watch. Kansas came in with so much talent, including QB Todd Reesing, who was a darkhorse Heisman candidate. But now, KU has lost 5 in a row and may not even make a bowl game. Plus, it's been distraction city with all the accusations against head coach Mark Mangino. Meanwhile at Texas, it's been business as usual. Just win after win after win. And now, it's senior night in Austin and the last time Colt McCoy will play in front of the Longhorn faithful. while KU may actually put up a fight, there's no way TEXAS loses this game.

3. #25 California @ #17 Stanford - "THE BAND IS ON THE FIELD!". Get ready to see that clip a few times this weekend. The game known as "The Big Game" really isn't that big this year. Cal is out of the Pac-10 race and while Stanford still has a shot at the title, they'll need some help. but don't let any of that distract from what should be a fun game to watch. Cal has hit their stride again, even without star RB Jahvid Best in their latest game against 'Zona. But Stanford has really gotten hot, scoring 106 points in their last 2 games against USC and Oregon. Plus, the game is in Palo Alto where the Cardinal are a perfect 5-0. Without Best, I think it'll be tough on Cal to win so I'll go with STANFORD.

4. #8 LSU @ Ole Miss - Neither team is going to the SEC title game but this is a big one. The winner claims second place in the SEC West and will all but be guaranteed a New Year's Day bowl game (most likely the Cotton Bowl). LSU comes in with 2 losses to the best 2 teams in the nation. But their 8 wins aren't all that impressive. Just last week, they struggled with a Louisiana Tech team. They should get QB Jordan Jefferson back but even with him at QB, they struggle. In fact, they are 107th in total yards in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Ole Miss comes in with a much better offense but also a defense that is prone to give up points. If the defense can keep LSU to around 10 points, then they should be fine. That and if Dexter McCluster can give them a real spark in the run game to take some pressure of QB Jevan Snead. With all that said, I'll go with OLE MISS at home. LSU just doesn't excite me.

5. Kansas State @ Nebraska - Who would have thunk that this would be a big game? When Bill Snyder was named the coach of Kansas State for a second time, a lot of people wondered if it would really make an impact. Well, it certainly has because under Snyder, the Wildcats have been perched near the top of the Big 12 North all season. But this week for the first time in a while, they are in second place behind Nebraska. But they can still make it to the Big 12 title game with a win over the Huskers. That won't be easy though, especially since the Huskers have really stepped up their game. They pretty much shut down Oklahoma and then last week, kept Kansas from ending its losing streak. I'll go with NEBRASKA to win and all but clinch their spot in the Big 12 title game.

6. Virginia @ #23 Clemson - I don't know if there is much doubt about who will win this game. The bigger question is just by how much AND if Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney will allow CJ Spiller to kick an extra point. You see, Spiller has done it all for Tigers. he's thrown, run, and caught a TD this season but yet to kick a PAT. That could change this week. With a win, the Tigers clinch a spot in the ACC title game and a rematch of a good game against Georgia Tech. With the way the Tigers are playing right now on both sides of the ball, I don't even think Virginia has a chance at an upset. Yeah, the Cavs beat UNC earlier this season but CLEMSON is playing with a ton of confidence and should win easily.

7. Connecticut @ Notre Dame - The Charlie Weis rumors continue to swirl around the college football world. While I think he should stay as coach, a loss in this game may change my mind. UConn is a good team and should be able to keep up with the Irish until the end. They have a pretty good defense that should be able to keep ND to around 28-30 points. After that, it'll be up their offense to respond. For ND, defense has been the problem from day one. If their defense can keep the Huskies from going score-to-score with their offense, who knows, the Irish may actually win. But this year with ND,t hat's a big IF. Thanks to Jimmy Clausen and his golden arm, I'll go with NOTRE DAME.

8. #16 Wisconsin @ Northwestern - These are good times in Evanston. That's because the Wildcats are going to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1995 and 1996. But getting to a bowl game at 7-5 isn't as good as getting there at 8-4. Plus, a win over a second ranked team looks good too. Wisconsin comes in as maybe the least-talked about 2-loss team in the nation. But that's probably just fine with them as they just keep doing their thing. QB Scott Tolzien is coming off his best game yet, throwing for a career-high 4 TD in a resounding win over Michigan. Meanwhile, NW boasts QB Mike Kafka, who is a dual threat and just a gutsy player. Lots of credit goes to NW coach Pat Fitzgerald for the job he's done with this squad. He's gotten NW to a point that they should be not be overlooked. I'm sure not going to here. NORTHWESTERN wins a close one.

9. #4 TCU @ Wyoming - When you're 10-0 and going on the road, it's always gonna be a big game. That's the case for TCU, who is just 2 games away from finishing the regular season unscathed. So far, TCU has done a great job of not only winning games, but winning them convincingly, giving voters no inclination of dropping them below a team like Cincinnati or Boise State. They'll need to do that here as they take on an improved Wyoming team. The Cowboys are a game away from bowl eligibility and actually beat the Horned Frogs the last time they were in Laramie. The problem is though that they have trouble scoring points on offense and TCU has one of the best defenses in the nation. Oh, and they're 5th in points scored. TCU wins by a huge margin.

10. Maryland @ Florida State - At 5-5, this is a must win for FSU if they want to go bowling. Well, I guess not a must win because they still have Florida on the schedule but really, does anyone see that upset happening? Didn't think so. FSU should have no problem with Maryland but that's probably what Clemson thought in October. Since that Clemson game though, MD has lost 6 in a row and at 2-8, are strictly out to play spoiler. Neither team's defense is worth talking about but Maryland's putrid offense sure is. They are 100th or worse in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and points scored. That tells me FLORIDA STATE wins with no problem.

11. North Carolina @ Boston College - For the second year in a row, the ACC has been full of a lot of mediocre teams that just beat themselves up. But it didn't have to be that way. One of the teams that could easily in the top 25 is North Carolina. But the Tar Heels hit a stretch where they lost 3 of 4 games, including games to Virginia and Florida State. If they win those games though, they are a quality 9-1 team with a very good defense and an improving offense. But now, they are just another 7-3 team in the ACC like BC, who also just seems pedestrian. If BC can pull off the victory and Virginia somehow upsets Clemson, they will play GT in the ACC Championship so there's something on the line for the Eagles. With 4 wins in a row though, including two over ranked teams, I'm picking NORTH CAROLINA to win.

12. Colorado @ #12 Oklahoma State (THURS) - This only makes the list because of the uncertainty surrounding OKST QB Zac Robinson. The QB left last week's game against Texas Tech after a violent collision that had him sit out the final seconds. Now, on a short week, he's a game-time decision for a OKST team that would love to finish the year a top 10 team. But that surely won't happen if they trip up against Colorado this week. The Buffaloes aren't a real worthy opponent, at just 3-7 and having to travel to Stillwater is not good, considering they are 0-5 on the road. Whether they have Robinson or not, OKLAHOMA STATE comes away victorious.

13. #14 Penn State @ Michigan State - It may take a few upsets but at 9-2, Penn State is still in the mix for a BCS at-large spot. A loss though against the Spartans will kill those chances. PSU has had some rough losses this year but a 10-2 finish will help Nittany Lions fans forget about those. After a sluggish start, PSU cruised against Indiana. They can't afford a sluggish start though to a much better MSU team. At 6-5, they are truly the definition of a disappointment in 2009. Many thought they could contend for a Big Ten title. Instead, they are barely bowl eligible. Last year, Daryll Clark had a career game against the Spartans. I don't see that happening again but I do think PENN STATE has enough to win.

14. Minnesota @ #13 Iowa - At 9-0, Hawkeyes fans had to be feeling on top of the world. They were well on their way to a Rose Bowl berth and possibly a spot in the BCS title game. But then, Northwestern happened. And then Ohio State. Now, to avoid a 3-game losing streak to end the year and the possibility of not getting a New Year's Day bowl game, they need to beat Minnesota. The Hawkeyes will probably win if they play like they did against OSU, which was a spirited performance especially without QB and leader Ricky Stanzi. Minnesota though will be no pushover. At 6-5, they are bowl eligible but have something else to play for. They want to stop a 13-game losing streak to ranked teams. If they play like they did last week, they will lose for sure. They needed a FG with 2 min left to beat South Dakota State. With that said, I'll take IOWA.

15. #10 Ohio State @ Michigan - You didn't think I forgot about it did you? It's the biggest rivalry in college football. Or at least, it was until Jim Tressel came into town. Thanks to Jimmy T, it's been really lopsided. OSU has won the last 5 games and lost just once in the Tressel era. And for OSU, this year's game doesn't mean much. The Bucks are off to the Rose Bowl no matter what. The only thing a loss does is have them share the Big Ten title with 1 to 3 teams. Eh, who cares? For Michigan though, this game is more than a rivalry game. It's also their last chance to get to that 6th win and become bowl eligible. Tate Forcier told reporters last week he will do whatever it takes to make sure his team goes bowling. Well, that means he better play his best game yet because he's going against an outstanding defense. Plus, his defense is not special. While OSU really doesn't have much to play for, I don't see them letting up one bit against their arch rival. OHIO STATE adds to the woes of Rich Rodriguez and Michigan and makes sure they spend the bowl season at home. Ohio State 34, Michigan 14.

OTHER GAMES
Northern Illinois @ Ohio - It's not very often OU Bobcat fans like myself get to talk about big games in November. But this game qualifies as that. OU is one game behind Temple in the MAC East standings but control their own destiny when it comes to the division crown. Getting by NIU won't be easy though. Both teams come in sporting 7-3 records and 5-1 conference records so OU's situation is just like NIU's. The Huskies control games with their run game while OU's passing game is superior. Both defenses are good but have lapses at times and let inferior teams score in earlier games. The Huskies are riding a 4-game win streak while the Cats have won 5 of their last 6. All in all, it's a very even game. The fact that it is in Athens won't make much of a difference, seeing that OU has lost 2 of their 3 games at home. As much as I know this is the kind of game OU has been known to lose, I see something in this team that makes me feel confident in saying OHIO comes away with the big win. Ohio 24, Northern Illinois 23