2009 College Football - Week 5

The month of September is behind us and what a month it was. The top 10 has been shuffled around each and every week while the top 3 teams haven't skipped a beat. But there's plenty of season and a lot to be figured out. Plus, injuries to star quarterbacks has really made for an interesting storyline.

It was another solid but not spectacular week of predictions for me, going 10-5. Though for once, I finally got an APPY right with South Carolina taking down Ole Miss. That moves my season record to 38-22, which is respectable considering the unpredictable nature of college football.

GAME OF THE WEEK
1. #7 USC @ #24 California - Despite Cal's loss to Oregon last week, this game is still huge. The loser is all but eliminated from winning the Pac-10 and this is probably Cal's best chance to beat USC since the Pete Carroll era. RB Jahvid Best obviously needs to run for more than the 55 yards he ran for against Oregon and QB Kevin Riley needs to keep the mistakes down. Meanwhile, QB Matt Barkley played fine against Washington State last week and should be ready for this one. In a way, I think the Oregon loss may help Cal because now they have something to prove and the pressure is sort of off of them. So though my mind tells me differently, I'm going with my gut and picking CAL to win.

BEST OF THE REST
2. #8 Oklahoma @ #17 Miami (FL) - The 'Canes rise to the top 10 was stopped last week by VT. Now, their time in the top 25 could be stopped with a loss to Oklahoma. The Sooners have played two solid games since the Sam Bradford incident. Give some credit to QB Landry Jones, who showed he has game. But Bradford could be back for this game, which could be a good or bad thing. Good if returns to the Heisman Trophy level he played at last season. Bad if he is hurried back and struggles or even worse, re-injures himself. The "Canes had trouble on offense against VT and considering they are playing another tough defense in Oklahoma, I'm not sure if they'll be able to keep up with the Sooner offense. I hope this is a close game but I think OKLAHOMA wins handily.

3. #4 LSU @ #18 Georgia - A battle of two SEC teams who haven't proven anything to me. LSU was lucky to come away with a win at Starksville last week and that is not a good team. Meanwhile, Georgia is 3-1 but could easily be 1-3, if South Carolina and Arizona State closed games better. It's a huge game for both for confidence. LSU would love to win this easily to stay fresh for their big matchup with Florida next week. Meanwhile, UGA needs to this to prove to all, including themselves, that their defense is gonna withstand an SEC offense. So far, it's given up 78 pts in 2 SEC games. When it comes down to it, I don't like either of these teams to really control the other. And in close games, I go with coaching and for this one, that means LSU is my pick.

4. #22 Michigan @ Michigan State - I've heard from some people that in Michigan, this is a bigger rivalry than UM-OSU. While I find that hard to believe, I do think it is a big deal, especially for MSU this season. They've come out the gates 1-3 and besides last year, have really been dominated by the Wolverines in the series. This is their chance to really take control of the rivalry. Unfortunately, they are facing a Michigan team with a lot of confidence. I've been nothing but impressed with frosh QB Tate Forcier, who has now twice driven his team to victory. Granted, it has been against two unranked teams, but that's a great sign. Oh, and MSU is an unranked team. With a trip to Iowa looming next week, Michigan has to make sure to focus on this game and this game only. I think they do that but I also think MSU is peeved from starting 1-3 and will not let this rivalry allow them to fall to 1-4. MICHIGAN STATE wins in my APPY pick of the week.

5. #15 Penn State @ Illinois - Now we really get to see how good this Penn State team is. Losing at home at Iowa hurts but the mark of a good team is how they respond from those devastating losses. PSU's defense played fine against Iowa. It was the offense that struggled and gave up the ball way too many times. Meanwhile, Illinois is fresh off a 30-0 shutout in Columbus. The Illini are better than that outing though and they know it. They could prove it with a huge home won over a top-15 team. This is the kind of game Illinois should win if they are for real, but after watching last week, I have a feeling they're not. PENN STATE wins by 10 or more.

6. Washington @ Notre Dame - At the beginning of the season, this was just another win for ND for most people. But then Washington upset USC and the Huskies were no longer just a doormat. ND better recognize that or they will find themselves losing for the second time this season. The Huskies are coming off a tough loss to Stanford, in which the offense never really got into a flow. The good thing for them is that Notre Dame's defense hasn't been strong this season, so Jake Locker should be able to lead his team to the endzone multiple times. Same goes for Jimmy Clausen though. He's had yet another week to recover from the turf toe and after another amazing game-winning drive, Irish fans have to think this team is starting to turn the corner. I really feel like Washington has what it takes to win this one but I'm taking NOTRE DAME to win yet another close one.

7. UCLA @ Stanford - It's obviously not the best Pac-10 matchup of the week (see #1) but it is intriguing nonetheless. This will be UCLA's first conference matchup but they already have a quality win on the road at Tennessee. Meanwhile, Stanford is 2-0 and while early, it'd be nice to be to 3-0 in what should be a great Pac-10 race. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job getting this team back to respectability after some tough years. It's games like these his team has to win to keep the program on the right track. STANFORD is my pick.

8. #21 Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Ole Miss dropped 17 spots after the 16-10 loss to South Carolina and now, have to fight their way back to the top 10. Beating Vandy won't help that cause really but it should help them get some of that confidence in their offense back that they lost in their inept performance in Columbia. Vandy is a game ballclub and played just about SEC team tough last season, especially at home. Ole Miss needs to come ready to play or they could lose another SEC game. OLE MISS is still my choice but again, they better be ready to go this week.

9. #25 Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State - GT is back in the top 25 after a pretty decisive win over North Carolina last week. But to stay there, they need to avoid the upset here. Miss. State nearly pulled off a huge upset last week against LSU so you know they have the capability of doing it. But one has to wonder if they used all that energy on that game, especially since it was an SEC game. I'll take GEORGIA TECH in this one.

10. Auburn @ Tennessee - It's a bit surprising to see Auburn undefeated right now but looking at their schedule, it kind of make sense. But they get their first real test this week against the Vols. Tennessee's defense continues to impress under the leadership of Monte Kiffin, keeping the OU offense to 16 points with a unit that probably was fatigued off a loss to Florida. But now it's SEC time and you know they are going to turn it up a notch. Auburn has some talent but not enough yet to win games like this on the road. TENNESSEE comes away with the victory.

11. Central Michigan @ Buffalo - Good MAC matchup here. Central Michigan is clearly the favorite, with their 3-1 record and QB Dan LeFevour. Not to mention Buffalo is on a 3-game losing streak and looking nothing like the team that went to win the MAC championship a year ago. But this game is in Buffalo, where the fans should turn out to egt this team back on the right track. Last year in Mount Pleasant, CMU escaped with a 27-25 win. Expect another close affair this time and the same result. CENTRAL MICHIGAN wins and Buffalo falls to 1-4.

12. Oregon State @ Arizona State - I don't think either of these teams has what it takes to challenge for the Pac-10 crown but it's games like this that end up being huge when it comes to bowl games. Both these teams are middle of the pack so winning these games go a long way to where they will finish. So far, I think ORST has been a disappointment, despite the talents of RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Arizona State just played their first real game last week at Georgia and while they played well, they lost a game they probably should have won. Since this game is in Tempe, I'll go with ARIZONA STATE but this is a coin flip.

13. Pittsburgh @ Louisville - The Panthers had a legit shot of cracking the top 25 with this win but then they lost to NC State last week 38-31 in one of those games that Dave Wannstedt has found a way to lose. If Wannstedt wants to keep his job past this season, he can't lose this game. The Panthers still have tough games left and anything more than 3 losses this season would be disappointing for Pitt fans. PITTSBURGH wins because Louisville isn't good.

14. Wisconsin @ Minnesota - The Badgers and Gophers come in perfect in Big Ten play and for the winner, a great chance to stay in the race for 3rd or 4th place. Both teams have played solid football so far. The Badgers are a perfect 4-0 while the Gophers's only loss came to Cal in a dogfight. When it's an even matchup like this in the Big Ten, it's always safe to take the home team and that's exactly what I am gonna do. MINNESOTA wins by a field goal.

15. #10 Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) - Is this really one of the best games of the week? Absolutely not but it quite possibly could be a matchup between one of the best teams in the nation against one of the worst. Cincy has been playing great in every area while the Redhawks have been absolutely dreadful. There once was a time when traveling to Miami (OH) would be a scary thing but forget about that this season. This will be just another home game for the Bearcats and by halftime, it'll feel like a scrimmage. CINCINNATI wins by 40 or more.

OTHER GAMES
Ohio @ Bowling Green - The Bobcats gave a good effort against Tennessee. If not for one crucial turnover, that game probably comes down to the wire. But they've got to forget about that game and the previous 3 and get ready for MAC play, where they have a good chance to be successful. The Cats get a fairly easy start, facing a BG team that just got stomped by Boise State. The Falcons did play Missouri tough in Week 2 but then lost to Marshall in Week 3, which is a bad loss. If OU can get a running game going, then this game could be lopsided. But that's a big if, considering the Bobcats are the only team in the NCAA to not have a rushing touchdown. I still think OHIO is the better team overall and should win the ballgame. OHIO 34, Bowling Green 27

#9 Ohio State @ Indiana - Just last week, Indiana took a top-25 team in Michigan down to the wire before losing in what may be one of the worst calls in Big Ten officiating history. This week, the Hoosiers must now rebound and face an OSU defense that hasn't given up a point in 2 games. The Buckeyes have played very well since their loss to USC. The defense has really stepped it up. The offense, while it has improved, still has some work to do to get ready for the brutal November schedule. Terrelle Pryor's decision-making needs to get better and the play-calling sure could be a bit more creative. Regardless of all that, OHIO STATE cruises to its 4th win. OHIO STATE 41, INDIANA 7